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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    We already traded our best catching option for this year this offseason. Wieters is exactly the type of guy who can give you sneaky value like a Hill did. His WAR the last 2 years have been 1.7 and 1.9 and that has heavily been defense oriented. He has a good pedigree that suggests you can catch lightning in a bottle with him and he plays a position of heavy need come trade deadline. Nothing about his previous years is going to heavily influence his value if he is having a good year. I mean I'm fine seeing what Susac can do but this is not a bad move if we make it.
  2. Ennder
    They had very different situations so it is hard to compare Melvin to Stearns. Melvin's goal was to get fans in the seats to make sure the new park worked out. Pretty much every single good young player under Melvin was brought up a season too early just to get fans in the seats with hope. The team had gone so long without a winning team that once they got good his direction was to keep the window open as long as he could.
  3. Ennder
    Statistically speaking there was no reason to think Hendrickson would be good. His 2004 season in Indianapolis must be why people think he could be good when he actually posted a decent K/BB% but the rest of his minor league career looked like future failure. Not enough K's, too many BB's, too many hard hit balls. I never understood why anyone believed he would be good, I was praying he would manage to be a #6 SP as a future. He is the poster boy for why judging pitchers by ERA is such an awful way to go about it because none of his stats ever predicted a good pitcher.
  4. Ennder
    The Broncos lost key players, that is very different. I can agree with the Panthers. The Panthers were an 11 or 12 win team that won 14 games last season. The same thing does happen in all sports. They played in a completely awful division last year and won a number of games where things just bounced their way. This seasons best example is the Lions. Using advanced metrics they aren't a top 16 team yet they made the playoffs, this is because they got incredibly lucky in close games. They are likely a 6 or 7 win team that lucked into the playoffs.
  5. Ennder
    I'm sorry but what? A "real" .500? In playing 162 game seasons, you are what you are. That simply is not true and you see it year after year. One glowing example is the Seattle Mariners. Twice in the past 10 years they had bad teams who snuck over 81 wins but even after adding more talent they lost 101 games the next years. Some teams play way over their rosters real talent and it basically never lasts. 162 games is still a small sample for wins and losses. Baseball is a very high variance sport and the same exact roster can have wildly different results different years. This is the trap bad GMs fall into, not understanding how good their team really is.
  6. Ennder
    The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.
  7. Ennder
    Gallardo has always been hurt by the long ball so this change probably helps him immensely. If his BB rate stays elevated like last year the point is moot but it wouldn't surprise me if he turns into an efficient #3 or #4 starter with the move. Smith is a very useful platoon player so he has some value as well. Just an all around decent trade.
  8. Ennder
    It was only can't miss TV because we didn't have the internet which can show the highlights about 100 times more efficiently than TV can. I actually want more analysis and less highlights to these shows. I really wish ESPN went next level into analysis like a fangraphs or footballoutsiders does instead of just being highlights and fluff. Berman's HR call is a bit much for sure but the vast majority of announcers these days are just boring as heck so I don't see anything better likely to come out of this. He is just old and ready to move into a less prominent role, no big deal here.
  9. Ennder
    I would take Door A and I imagine MA would as well. A team that is consistently in the playoffs is going to trump one that just is a flash in the pan one year in fan excitement and entertainment.
  10. Ennder
    Very few World Series winners in recent years were the best teams in baseball. They are a good team that makes the playoffs and has things fall their way more times than not. Being a consistent contender is by far the best path to winning championships.
  11. Ennder
    This is a complete non story. These guys are all expendable, including Diaz. I'm sure they would have traded Diaz for the same amount of cash they got in the Cubs deal.
  12. Ennder
    Gonna go against the grain here and say that the Indians are a much better team than the Cubs and are more likely to return to the World Series. They were down 3 of their 5 best players and just added an all star player as well. They are a better team than the cubs.
  13. Ennder
    Oops I thought Donaldson was a signing not a trade. 70% of the top 10 being outside the top half of the draft still makes my point. Just drafting high isn't the easy answer like in say the NBA.
  14. Ennder
    The highest WAR position players last year were. Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers and we may have won a World Series if he did) Kris Bryant - 2nd pick Mookie Betts - 172nd pick Josh Donaldson - 48th pick (FA sign) Corey Seager - 18th pick Jose Altuve - unsigned free agent Manny Machado - 4th pick Francisco Lindor - 8th pick Freddie Freeman - 78th pick Adrian Beltre - FA signing, so old draft spot doesn't matter here Franchise hitters come from all over the place, there is no sure way to get one and FA or mid season trades aren't generally a good way to go about it. You draft/trade for a lot of talented guys and hope one of them takes a big step above the talent you got them at.
  15. Ennder
    The fact is very few young players actually take big steps up so conservative is reality. It is more likely that some of our inexperienced players flame out than they break out. I mean these are based on nothing but math and numbers so they aren't going to be terribly useful when it comes to small sample players. The way they build projections is usually building a range of outcomes so part of the projection includes the times a player breaks out or totally collapses. They only show a weighted mean of the overall projection. If you look at one like baseballprospectus they actually give breakout values so you can see which players are higher upside etc. They just charge for these fuller projections.
  16. Ennder
    That is completely wrong. Plenty of mid range payroll teams have competed in the past 20 years and they didn't do it by simply mortgaging the future. The Brewers market may be low but their actual payroll range is mid range. That was Melvin's strategy and I was fine with it, but it isn't the only way for the team to find success.
  17. Ennder
    Pretty sure the only reason I don't like the NHL is because Wisconsin doesn't have a team. It is fun to watch but with no team to cheer for I just didn't have any interest. I don't follow the Bucks but i think that is more because the NBA is just an awful product where half the teams aren't even trying and the game is just dull as heck until the playoffs. I would assume if the Brewers had moved baseball would have lost me.
  18. Ennder
    It is low but the projections also are very limited in playing time. I expect more WAR to filter in for the offense. The pitching is more my concern than the offense.
  19. Ennder
    Which says what? Everyone likes to pile on him for being "the worst owner in sports" but his team has won more championships under his ownership than most of the rest of the league. He's also (at times) made more of an effort to field a competitive team than the vast majority of other teams. He won one world series and did it in a way that killed the entire fanbase to the point where their average attendance barely breaks 20k.
  20. Ennder
    The offense can win 75 games as seen by those projections which have them at 5.3 WAR which isn't awful. The pitching is the issue, if the pitching can be somewhere near league average which I doubt it will be, they can do 75 games. It just isn't super likely.
  21. Ennder
    They are projections not predictions. They aren't really wrong. if you look at the full projections most likely Villar hit his 90th percentile projection. If you just study players careers the range of yearly outcomes is very large for most players, not very many show the same type of stats year after year. It is a very high variance sport.
  22. Ennder
    This has to be the worst contract in sports history given his injury history.
  23. Ennder
    He's averaged over 1 WAR per full season. Signing that to a minor league deal almost can't be a bad thing. Hope he shows that last year was a fluke and potentially trade him mid season or he fills in for an injury or a traded player. Nice little pickup.
  24. Ennder
    Angels fans seem really bummed by this deal for what it is worth. My personal opinion is that last year was a very big growth year for Maldonado even though the traditional stat line doesn't show it. His BB% went up, his K% went down, he pulled the ball less, he made harder contact. Normalize his babip to his career norm and his line was more like .242/.360/.380 with a .740 OPS. I think he is going to be that sneaky type of C who suddenly learns to hit some in his early 30s. It wouldn't do the Brewers any good so I'm glad they got the younger more controllable player but I don't think this is the slam dunk win that some people do.
  25. Ennder
    You don't need either of these to win the World Series. A team of solid above average players is more likely to do it than a few stars since injuries don't set you back as much. But it highly comes down to luck to be honest. Trout wasn't a top 10 pick and he has been by far the best player in baseball for years now.
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