This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams. Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at. "I am willing to give up more for 15 starts and no draft pick than I am for 32 and a draft pick." You understand my skepticism. I can see the debate from both sides. I think it's more of a value vs supply and demand thing. I do think there are scenarios that Bumgarner could fetch more at the deadline. It's not so much black and white with him. Right now there's a lot of pitching available via FA and trades (supposedly). Based on recent performance and years of control, Bumgarner quite frankly isn't as appealing as some of the other options for teams looking for a sure fire front-line guy, looking for young controllable talent, or for teams just wanting to cheaply fill a rotation spot. ....Fast forward to the trade deadline. Should Bumgarner come through the 1st half healthy and regain some of his peripheral stats, then he very well could be the best available at the deadline. With the added WC spots there are typically fewer teams selling at the deadline these days so the teams that are can sometimes leverage that situation. Any team sitting at the deadline with a high probability to make the playoffs would love to acquire something close to the pre 2017 version of MadBum. If I'm the Brewers I'm absolutely trying to buy now as yes, 32+pick > 15. If I'm the Giants, I have to believe it's a tough sell to get what his career accolades might suggest he should be worth. Not completely dissimilar from the Brewers and Braun to the Dodgers (if you believe the Brewers overplayed their hand a bit). I think the Giants will ultimately decide to hold Bumgarner as I don't see a team meeting what they believe his value should be.