NievesNoNO
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Everything posted by NievesNoNO
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40-man roster discussion (part 2)
NievesNoNO replied to djoctagone's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=37695 Cool. Thanks for the links. I definitely feel like the utilization of the 40 man is something that Stearns and this FO has targeted as a space to potentially gain an edge on other clubs that kind of just ignore it and use it just as a holding\protection area. The Brewers really do seem to value the whole 40 and have made decisions based on how they can essentially play with a roster greater than the active 25. Maybe that's just me paying more attention to the Brewers than what other clubs are doing and not really seeing all the details of the other teams. -
He's already acquired significant upgrade from last year's production at 2B in the form of Spangenberg even if he just lets him play everyday and against lefties at that position. It's not a glitzy acquisition, but then again Chacin wasn't last offseason either. ....................... . I agree with all that. I guess I'm referring to some reports that claim the Brewers are still in pursuit of an infield upgrade. I don't see Harrison, Panik, or some of the other names being referenced as sure fire upgrades to what we already have. I think, despite the supposed financial constraints, it'll be a clear upgrade like Marwin, LeMahieu, or Moose. Maybe even a trade for somebody.
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I'm really interested to see what happens here. Stearns has a pretty fair (short) history of getting pretty significant upgrades. I know it won't take much to actually have an upgrade over last season but I dont see him acquiring somebody that would qualify as a potential upgrade. I feel like if he's going to get somebody it'll be worth the effort.
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I agree with Perez/Spangenberg > Harrison.
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It's a pretty significant upgrade. The W/L season total might not completely reflect it but if you consider yourself a playoff team, then a game or two difference during the season and even 1 win in the playoffs is huge. He's for sure in the top 3-4 catchers over the last 3 seasons. I'm not sure the money would stop additional moves, but if it does I can at least understand where your coming from. I was good with Pina as well, but this is a significant upgrade to the lineup and it didn't cost any current prospects, only $$$.
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I still think he might circle back around to Whit. Peralta, Ray, Dubon, and Taylor Williams, and Houser... who says no?
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This would obviously fix things. And I think this should be done. But then there needs to be some concessions to small market teams like even more revenue sharing or a hard salary cap. If small market can't count on young controllable players teams like the Brewers are screwed. I know this is going off topic but.... I agree, the player union will likely want to change some things but as far as professional athletics are concerned they might have the best labor agreement, maybe second to the NBA if you want to debate it. With regard to specifically Grandal, obviously the reports are that he turned down somewhere between 50-60 million dollars in guaranteed money. I really don't care what the owners are making; the discrepancy in income is the same in most other lines of business as well. I mean realistically, the majority of people going to their jobs won't be able to sign on for any sort of guaranteed employment over the next 3-4 years with a locked in salary not contingent on job performance.... Yes, the finances are very fantasy-like to most of us anyway but to say there's going to be a work stoppage based on a one-year 18 million dollar contract seems a bit contorted to me. Anyway... Love the signing!!!
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Wow. Didn't see that coming. That investment on a 1 year deal sure looks like this team is intent on making a run at a WS this season.... more is coming.
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After throwing 31.7% sliders as a rookie in 2013, his slider % declined every year from 12.3 in 2014 to 7.1 in 2017. In 2018 his slider % jumped back up to 25.8. He talks about it a little bit here... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/david-cone-j-a-happ-and-jake-petricka-on-developing-their-sliders/ I know this move could very well be worth nothing, but when I see these smaller moves all with very seemingly calculated reasons for happening I'm always super encouraged. Probably a pretty similar pitcher to Barnes if you believe the changes made last season are permanent. You could do a lot worse for the back end of the bullpen or a shuttle/depth/backup type.
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Yup. You could talk me into Bumgarner and Smith for Peralta + or Corey Ray +. The perception of Bumgarner has been skewed by his otherworldly playoff performances and I suppose that's a good enough reason to make a strong play at him. Don't get me wrong, he's been an Ace, just not at the level I think people think he is. Freak injuries or not, his peripherals are trending down with a ton of innings on that arm. I'm just not convinced he's worth a significant return.
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I don't think Ray is the type of player that you can accurately gauge what selling high is, though - there is too much talent to let go at this stage in his career, IMO. Assuming his 30/30 season isn't something Ray could repeat at the mlb level based off what he did (or didn't do) early in his minor league career and focusing on the k rate at this juncture is a big risk. I think Stearns will have a tough time moving on from his 1st ever draft pick without giving Ray more opportunities to become a quality major league player, so I doubt he is headed anywhere via trade this offseason. I have to agree here. Ray obviously made some adjustments last year for the better. I'm not sure what his ceiling is; obviously the K% hinders that some but what's the floor? Is it Keon Broxton for the floor? I'd like to see another year and I was super skeptical (and still am for the most part) of Ray when he didn't come out of the gate well as a supposed advanced college bat. If he can figure out how to keep the power and cut the K% by 3-4% now you have something pretty decent. That said, sometimes you need to take calculated risks. I don't think Bumgarner is an ace any longer but he could be the key piece come playoff time. I wouldn't be disappointed if they traded Ray for him. I'd feel a lot better about it if they could work something out to include Will Smith. However, with the cost of relief pitching (lhrp at that) if I'm the Giants I'm holding him until the deadline and taking the highest bidder.
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Fangraphs has a wealth of data and they do a great job a organizing data and putting it in one spot. They also have a group of pretty talented writers. The projection systems are just that, systems. Plug in the historical stats and let it do it's thing. Taking the individual WARs from those projections might give an indication on individual talent per team but it doesn't do a very good job of accounting for things like platoons, depth, and situational adjustments.
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Yusei Kikuchi signs with Mariners
NievesNoNO replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So the first three years are a $14.33 million AAV. Maybe not outrageous, but rich enough that it’s tough to blame the Brewers or other teams for not topping that offer. Pretty much matches my thoughts on this. Considering the Brewer's current payroll, the investimet was probably a bit higher than they'd like for what amount to be a bit of a wildcard. He certainly sounds like he's prepared for the transition and his numbers over seas look like they should translate reasonably well but you never really know. He may have prefered the west coast but I feel pretty confident in saying if the Brewers or anyone else had offered say, 17 million a year , that's where he'd be going. -
I give the Brewers credit for thinking out of the box last season and I'd expect some creativity this year as well. Some of that creativity was forced by a non-existent Arcia, a black hole at 2B and a slumping Aguilar/Thames. Moustakas was an option to inject some life into the infield offense and thankfully Shaw really held his own at 2B. I wouldn't count on that type of scenario as a plan A or even plan B to start the season. I think the stopgap at second is Perez\Spangenberg. I don't think there's really a debate on who the starting 1B is at this point. Aguilar has earned that and is the better bat though Thames still has his uses against Rhp, so I don't see either going anywhere. At least not to the point that they "need" to move one of them.
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Brewers are scouting Kikuchi
NievesNoNO replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Yes it's kind of weird. I'd have expected to hear a list of teams in the final stages or something. -
Probably, but I'm sure some of the dismay is eased by a WS win.
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Brewers are scouting Kikuchi
NievesNoNO replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He's only stuck on the west coast if the pay is similar. Make the best offer and you can land him. I get the west coast thing, closer to home, bigger Asian population, etc. If another team makes a significantly better offer I don't see how he doesn't go there. It's not like there are no diverse populations anywhere else around the US. Ease of travel and social media probably ease the distance some. I feel like overall it's an exaggerated point. I do think he ends up as a Dodger or Padre. The Dodgers just cleared some payroll and always have extra $$$ and the Padres are seemingly wanting to make a splash acquisition. I'd handicap the Brewers as equal to the remaining west coast teams. -
I’m with ya on this one. Agreed with both of you. Sorry, don't see how Harrison is an upgrade at all from some combination of Perez/Spangenberg/Dubon at 2B until Hiura is ready. Dubon isn't talked about much but I see some possible intrigue and upside there. He was one of the best and hottest hitters in the PCL before his injury, which yeah I know, PCL, so take it with a grain of salt. Yeah, I think Dubon does get overlooked a bit. Has he played anywhere over the Winter or is he still healing? If he's right, he's the type of player many on this board are clamoring for; a high contact type guy. If he can play a passable SS, that also has some intrigue as a backup to Arcia.
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I'd be interested in extending Shaw a couple years into FA. There's really no rush as he has three years of control but maybe you give him a bit more on the front end in what would be his arbitration years for a bit less on the back end. If he was a FA this season he'd get paid really well. He also still appears to be improving as a hitter. I'm not so sure he'll ever hit lefties, but with the improvement he's made since being with Milwaukee I wouldn't completely dismiss it as a possibility. 5/$50?
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Not sure what I'd give up. I like Gray enough, he hasn't changed much as a pitcher. I think a change of environment might work, but is he really much different than Chase Anderson at this point? I guess I don't see him as a significant upgrade for the rotation from what we already have available for both the salary and the prospect cost. I mean many of us on here would be happy to move on from Anderson so I don't see where Gray falls into a different category. I do like that he's still able to generate ground balls even in an environment that's changed to hitting more fly balls, so if I was going to pin a reason as to why he'd be an improvement that's what I'd go with.
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It pains me to say it but probably Harrison. I don't really like either this season but Harrison is probably the better fit.
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I do also like the idea of Lowrie. This is where the larger markets get the advantage I guess. He's a perfect fit for what the Brewers need. I believe if they had the money to throw at it, he'd be their guy. I think it will take some off-loading of their current payroll to get this done.
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Probably being discussed in different areas but I can't help but feel rightly or wrongly, that the Brewers ability to advance to the WS is largely correlated with either the performance of or trading of Hiura. It's kind of a perfect storm with the Brewers financial situation, Hiura's prospect status and the Brewer's position of need. The guy is maybe the Brewers best hitting prospect in a decade or so. He's likely the best 2B in the organization, a clear position of need and also highly regarding enough to be the centerpiece of a significant trade. It would be great if they didn't have to rely on him, but I think it's kind of the nature of the small market beast. At some point you have to bank on a few of your young guys. Is the upside of Hiura (even in his rookie season) enough of a needle mover/upgrade over last season to risk not searching out another option and focusing resources in a different area or just allowing for some financial flexibility during the season? Thankfully DS is more creative than me.
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Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
NievesNoNO replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agree with much of this. Santana got a bit of a inadvertent raw deal imo. The guy was a legitimate top 15 Offensive OF in 2017, young and controllable. The type of player the Brewers seemingly should've been finding a spot for. I'm not disagreeing with what they did, but with how things played out Santana started the season on the outside looking in after an All-Star level season. At this point as much as I hate to see him go, the deal is consistent with what the Brewers FO has been doing. Targeting versatility and flexibility both on the field and with roster manipulation and cost. I think it's a fair deal, but I think Santana has a big year and a real nice career going forward. -
They're clearing room for Braun!!!!
