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nate82

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Everything posted by nate82

  1. nate82
    I'm very unimpressed with Bowden. Bowden's FIP in the minors was 4.08 the MLE for that is 5.04. That is worse than Manny Parra and about equal to what Bush did an injury year. Bowden's upside would be nothing more than a #4 pitcher at best he is probably more of a bullpen arm than a starter. If you want to look inside the Brewers organization to get a clearer example Josh Butler is comparable to Bowden.
  2. nate82
    The Angels may not have enough money to resign Lackey though. Remember the Angels have a lot of free agents of their own to resign. The Angels already resigned Abreu at $9m and they have Lackey, Vlad, and Figgins yet to resign. Both Vlad and Figgins are going to get big contracts along with Lackey. I don't see the Angels being able to retain 2 of their 3 free agents. I believe the Angels will resign Vlad and that is it out of the 3 that are still possible free agents.
  3. nate82
    I don't see Kendall coming back unless I missed something here. It is going to be either a FA signing or Lucroy/Salome splitting time with Rivera.
  4. nate82
    Nice game by Bogut tonight 17pts and 10 rebounds and Warrick with a decent game also tonight.
  5. nate82
    I don't see the Yankees getting Lackey I think the Yankees won't be major players in the free agency market this year. The Mets have been tied to Lackey but I believe they have been quoted that they are not likely in it if he wants Burnett type of money. I don't see Boston going after Lackey either and the Angels will have to decide on Vlad or Lackey I believe they will go after Vlad over Lackey. That leaves the Dodgers (already near their maximum in payroll), Brewers, and a hand full of other teams vying for Lackey. I believe Lackey is going to land somewhere unexpected from the main stream media. I'll go with Milwaukee, Detroit, and Washington as the being the major players in the Lackey sweepstakes. The Mets blew nearly all of their payroll on last years free agents. The Cubs new ownership has set a payroll for them and they won't be adding payroll this year so that eliminates them. The Yankees are going to be trying to lock up Rivera and resigning Matsui or Damon along with Pettite. The Yankess also have Chamberlain and Hughes available for the bottom of the rotation. I don't see Boston going after Lackey for the same reason but I do believe Boston will try to get one of Sheets/Bedard/Harden.
  6. nate82
    A real "prototypical lead off hitter" is someone who gets on base a lot. Someone who has an OBP of something around .360-.380 speed does help though. Dave Cameron over at fangraphs had an article up earlier in the year about the #2 hitter link. If Gomez could increase his OBP and with his ability to steal bases Weeks would be a great #2 hitter but I would rather have Weeks bat 5th behind Fielder and have Gamel bat 2nd in the lineup. If Gomez gets on and you have a power hitter in Gamel at the plate he will see more fastballs or at least the pitcher will have to decide who he is going to pitch to. Is he going to pitch to Gamel throw off speed or breaking balls to Gamel or is he going to pitch to the runner and use his fastball. Now the pitcher is not going to want to walk Gamel because Braun and Fielder will be batting behind him. Gamel makes a lot of sense as the Brewers #2 hitter either it being Weeks at the top of the lineup or Gomez or Escobar up there. I believe the Brewers would have the best offense in MLB with Gamel batting 2nd if Weeks, Escobar, or Gomez can have a solid OBP year.
  7. nate82
    I'm not sure if he is or if he isn't. At cot's it shows that he has a ML service time of 5.031 so he probably is but even if he is I could see the Brewers bringing him back over someone like McClung who I believe the Brewers will non tender.
  8. nate82
    The Braves are looking to dump one of those three and Vazquez is the only one that fits without the Braves having to take on the majority of the salary owed to the player. Plus that was a career year for Vazquez and I doubt he will repeat that again especially since he will be 33 years old entering the 2010 season and will be 34 years old by the end of the season. Vazquez is not going to garner much in a trade beyond a Hart plus package. Unless the Braves will be willing to take on more salary which they are not likely to do.
  9. nate82
    Player Salary Jeff Suppan $12.50 Prince Fielder $10.50 Trevor Hoffman $8.00 David Riske $4.50 David Bush $6.00 Rickie Weeks $4.00 Jody Gerut $2.50 Ryan Braun $1.00 Craig Counsell $1.00 Todd Coffey $3.00 Carlos Villanueva $2.00 Manny Parra $0.50 Mike Rivera $1.50 Yovani Gallardo $0.50 Mitch Stetter $0.50 Mark DiFelice $0.50 Alcides Escobar $0.50 Mat Gamel $0.50 Casey McGehee $0.50 Chris Narveson $0.50 Claudio Vargas $2.50 Total $63.00 This does not include Looper and Weathers buyout or Hall's contract that the Brewers still owe on. I gave a very generous arbitration for each of the players available for arbitration. Add about $10m to that and add about $1m for Gomez. So about $74-78m which gives the Brewers about $16m to work with. But that all depends on how much MA says the payroll will be. If the payroll will be at $85-90m not including Hall's contract then that is a lot of money available for a trade or a FA signing. If it does include what the Brewers will owe Hall then It is around the $15m mark.
  10. nate82
    No the plus wouldn't be Escobar or Lawrie. Vazquez is not that good and he is far from one of the best pitchers in the league. The Braves are not going to get much in return for either Kawakami, Vazquez, or Lowe all of which have somewhat high contracts Lowe and Vazquez having rather high contracts and Kawakami having a somewhat reasonable contract. Vazquez is owed $11.5m next year and Lowe is still owed $45m over the next three years. The market for 33 year old pitchers is not that high.
  11. nate82
    That is one expensive buyout. It is only $400k acutally.
  12. nate82
    You would then have lost Cameron which would have been worse. At least with this move the Brewers are able to add more salary to the team. I'm not calling this trade a winner or a loser until more information on how the rest of the off season will go.
  13. nate82
    Not losing a player even a very questionable prospect for a middle reliever is fine by me. The money that went for Weathers really wouldn't have been used on anyone else. You wouldn't have gotten much in terms of the money that was sent back to the Reds. It really didn't cost the Brewers all that much to trade for Weathers.
  14. nate82
    I believe you can look at Guthrie, Arroyo, and Harang type of pitchers who all are near the amount of WAR that Gomez would provide you are the types that Hardy would have brought in. It would have been a wash to get any of those three compared to Gomez.
  15. nate82
    It really didn't cost the Brewers anything when they acquired him. No player was sent to the Reds in that deal only some cash.
  16. nate82
    I believe Weeks can do what Lopez did and probably will improve on the numbers that Lopez put up. McGehee will probably be about average at 3B next year. I still believe the Brewers are going to be trading McGehee/Hart and not Gamel this off season unless Halladay or someone like him becomes available. The Brewers now have a lot of payroll flexibility to play with. Offensively the team will take a hit but it is not as much as the sky is falling crowd is claiming it will be. I believe Escobar and Gomez will improve on their OBP and it will be no worse than what Hardy and Cameron did for the Brewers. The Brewers can upgrade their OPS at the catchers spot by having Rivera behind the plate or signing Miguel Olivo or bringing up Salome or Lucroy. All of those options would drastically improve the OPS at the catcher spot. At worst you would be getting nearly the same production as last year. Replacing Kendall with a higher OPS catcher and replacing Cameron with Gomez would be a wash. You increase at one position and decrease at another. I don't believe Cameron would be a near .800 OPS player next year probably more along the lines of .760-.770. Which is still valuable but if the Brewers can upgrade at catcher and stay or improve defensively at CF it shouldn't be a problem. At worst Gomez will be like Kendall. I'm not going to call this a bad or a good trade until all of the information is available. That means when the off season is said and done with a lot of things can happen between now and February. There just is not enough information right now to say if this is a good or bad trade.
  17. nate82
    I'm just hoping that Redd gets healthy and the Bucks can somehow dump him on a team for an expiring this year.
  18. nate82
    Cameron would have cost at least the same as Abreu maybe even a little bit more but not much more. So I believe Cameron would have been looking for a 2-year deal around $18-20m and that is before taking incentives into consideration.
  19. nate82
    Recent rumors that have included Vazquez and Lowe being the odd men out in Atlanta. The Braves want a RH corner OF/1B/3B power hitter. Dye, Hart, and McGehee (to a point) fit that description. I believe the Braves were rumored in looking to trade for Dye during the trading deadline also so there is interest there. I wouldn't mind the Brewers signing Dye but the money spent on Dye should really be spent on pitching either through FA or through a trade. Vazquez and Lowe (Kawakami is also available) would fit perfectly in Milwaukee Vazquez more so than Lowe and Kawakami though. I don't think the Braves will be able to trade Lowe away and Vazquez or Kawakami will be the odd man out.
  20. nate82
    Jermaine Dye is now a free agent this probably kills a Hart/McGehee trade to the Braves for Vazquez/Lowe though. I would expect the Braves to sign Dye if they can trade Vazquez or Lowe to another team. Link.
  21. nate82
    Webb's option was picked up he is not a free agent the same with Beckett. The Braves are about to extend Hudson so he isn't a free agent either. Cliff Lee has a very reasonable option left and the Phillies would be stupid not to extend him so he is not available. That leaves Bedard (unlikely to be ready for the first opening months of the season), Harden (the best pitcher of the bunch), Sheets (see Harden), Duchscherer (soft tosser and coming off an injury like Bedard and Sheets. Harden is also very injury prone), and Washburn (Left Handed version of Suppan and Looper). Others available are Garland, Vazquez and Lowe (both Lowe or Vazquez could be had in a trade).
  22. nate82
    Hart plus to the Braves for Vazquez could be possible other than that not much out there really in the trade market. I don't. I don't think the $$ involved in this deal gets us significantly closer to getting Lackey Lackey is looking to get a deal around what Burnett got last year. Which was 5 years ate $82.5m which comes out to an average of $16.5m a year which is rather close to what the Brewers are saving if Cameron and Looper are both gone also figure in Weathers not being picked up and subtract about $1m from the savings for the resigning of Vargas but that would be an all or nothing signing with Lackey. The Brewers would be looking at only signing Lackey and then someone like Escobar, Mulder, add in any other injured pitcher to the signing. With the Lackey signing the Brewers would have to depend on Bush, Parra, and Narveson to improve from last year. If Suppan wasn't on the team this year I would say go for Lackey because Narveson could easily replace Suppan as the #5 pitcher. I would rather the Brewers go with a Garland, Sheets/Harden, and Mulder/Escobar signing and then trade Hart plus to the Braves for Vazquez.
  23. nate82
    I would definitely prefer Garland over Washburn or Davis.
  24. nate82
    If the Brewers are going to sign another soft tosser I would rather it be Garland than Washburn. Garland will only be 31 compared to Washburn being 35 next season.
  25. nate82
    What if Suppan was left handed would that count as a veteran pitcher?
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