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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    Why replace good players? The Brewers are going to have to replace good players. That's not a question. The question is which good players they will have to replace. This team will have money to burn after Suppan is gone, how should we spend it? No, they won't have money to burn. They should have sufficient money to plug whatever holes exist in the 2011 team. Right now my guess is a closer and maybe a starter, but that's just a guess. I think you'd agree FA is a route to avoid. I completely disagree with that. The right FA can be a huge assest for a team. It's just a matter of finding the right player within the team's budget.
  2. kramnoj
    I wouldn't be too eager to lock up Weeks right now. The Brewers have a decent chance of having a prospect be ready to replace him in 2012.
  3. kramnoj
    Someone wrote a newspaper article or something about it? Weird. It's part of the Sunday notebook for a paper that covers the Marlins and they are traveling to Milwaukee this week. Reporters are paid to put things in the paper, and there is more space to fill on a Sunday.
  4. kramnoj
    He is exhibit "A" with regard to MLB being a good ol' boys club that's willing to employ incompetence for years. I think Bowden is exhibit "B". I don't see that being true. I have a hard time believing the Mets owners would throw away games because they happened to personally like Phillips. The problem is that there's no school to learn how to be a GM, there's no test to tell how a GM will do. The Mets looked at people who had been through the baseball trenches and hired the guy that impressed them the most in the interview. Since the Mets owners themselves aren't informed enough to judge all of Phillips actions, they gave him enough time to prove he didn't deserve it.
  5. kramnoj
    He has limited value to the Brewers as of right now since his ceiling is starting to come down from were it was thought to be. This is about the 3rd comment similar to this so far, and nobody has actually shown this to be true. Yo, Parra, and Jeffress should be anchoring the staff for the next several years. There isn't much reason to think that Jeffress will be included in this group next year. Maybe after that, but that is all projection at this point. I dont see Bush going away if he keeps up what he is doing, Melvin knows what this farm system lacks. Bush is a FA after 2010, Melvin may not be able to stop Bush from going away. Bush could be a top 5 SP for the 2011 FA class. We know that there are all ways a bunch of middle of the road SPs in free agency each year that can be signed for the short term. Yes, and that is the value of Kennedy. He should be roughly equivalent to those middle of the road SP for a lot less money.
  6. kramnoj
    If Doumit is in RF, he is an upgrade over Hart, and as a switch-hitter, he's not dealing with platoon issues. I don't think Doumit has played enough in the OF for us to say this with certainty. Julio has negative value to the Pirates, he doesn't make any sense for them. This is a fairly interesting idea. I don't think it would happen, but if the Brewers were in contention in late July and Kendall is still OPSing less than .600 it might be something to consider. Edit: I should have thought of this earlier, but if the Pirates were to trade Doumit, Hart doesn't make any sense either. The Pirates would want younger, cheaper players.
  7. kramnoj
    It wasn't a question to be answered, it was rhetorical in nature It's not listed as part of the contract, because it's not part of the contract. Cot's lists the posting fee. How else should they handle it? I didn't find any verbiage indicating that the posting fee factors into revenue sharing which seems to be a huge loophole in the system. It's certainly a loophole, but I don't know how huge it is. How often does this come up to this degree? The next player of significant note is Darvish (AFAIK), and it could be years before he comes over.
  8. kramnoj
    More experienced and patient hitters and his walks have skyrocketed, same with the number of hits he's allowed. I'm not seeing this. Who cares? Just because he would be the closest doesn't mean he's good. I would say Jeffress and Anundsen could be close in 2011. I care. The Brewers may need another starter in 2010, and will need a replacement for Bush and Suppan after that. Kennedy would improve the Brewers system. Anyone who is derisive of Kennedy's potential is ignoring how valuable he could be to the Brewers.
  9. kramnoj
    Thank you for pointing out the obvious nearly 2 months later... Nobody addressed your question. Cot's lists the posting fee. I don't know if it did previously, but it's not like it is ignored there.
  10. kramnoj
    It's not just about stats, it's about stuff. Yes. That's obviously true. [/i] Kennedy on the other hand throws around 90 with decent off-speed stuff. He's always going to have to hit is spots because if he doesn't, he gets hits hard which limits his ceiling. [/i] That certainly is the thing that holds him back in the minds of many. Yet he still finds a way to k 9.9/9 over his minor league career, and I don't find any minor league stops where he has been hit hard. If Kennedy was in the Brewers system, would any prospect be clearly better than him to earn a rotation spot in 2010? How many are poised to be better than him in 2011?
  11. kramnoj
    Why when they talk about Dice K's contract in the media or on COTs for example isn't the posting fee considered part of the contract? It's not part of the contract. It was certainly part of the cost of acquisition, but Matsuzaka doesn't get the money, and it doesn't have an impact for luxury tax purposes. As fas as Strasburg, could the Nationals sign a contract where he gives up arbitration rights in return for a guaranteed contract? What would be the most that he could reasonably be expected to get in arby? I can maybe see paying $20-25M if it bought out arbitration years and got 6+ years service time out of it, if he truly is that special.
  12. kramnoj
    Kennedy would be at best a #3 guy in the rotation and looks like he could end up as a #5/ long reliever type guy. He reminds me a lot of former Brewer farm hand Will Inman. Good stats at lower levels but plateaus when he reaches the higher minors. Which stats is this referring to? I don't see much of a difference. I think the "Yankee Hype" has had a pendulum effect that has swung so far that some non-Yankee fans discount some Yankee prospects too much. How many Brewers prospects have stats that are better than Kennedy?
  13. kramnoj
    The problem with any kind of estimate on what a FA will get is that you need to do a true market anaylsis of which teams would pay for a CF, how much money those teams would have to spend for the 2010 season, and how much they prioritize CF as their need compared to all other needs. Otherwise you have people saying that Orlando Hudson would get 4/$40M this past year, because that's what he was worth according to Fangraphs, and that's what teams usually give to players like that. That's one of the things the Brewers hopefully do, and is a fair amount of work for a fan or a blogger to do. I don't envy Melvin's job looking at the next offseason. Do the Brewers trade Hardy for the best package they can get? What does he set as a minimum return before it's better to try and lock Hardy up or let him go and hope that he is a Type A and gets some draft picks in return? What do the Brewers do for C in 2010? Do they sign a veteran backup for a mil or less and split duties between him and Rivera, waiting for Salome to come up at some point? Do you try to retain Hoffman if he does well for the season? There are so many moving parts. As for my opinion without doing all the research I just recommended, I think I would offer arbitration. Endy Chavez is actually an option as he is a a good CF defensively, but I wouldn't pay more than a few million on a one year deal. And if you let Cameron go and have Endy targeted as a backup and some other team outbids you, you're up a creek without a paddle.
  14. kramnoj
    So basically you're going to go around and argue semantics instead of the spirit of the post in every single thread? No. My point was supposed to be that we have plenty of offense and not enough pitching, the same point I've been making since late 2007. Is there anybody who disagrees with this? Pitching wins championships doesn't seem open to interpretation. Maybe you just threw in a cliche and didn't mean it, but the bulk of your post seemed to focus on the Brewers not being able to win without a focus on pitching. Since everybody would agree that the Brewers need more pitching, it seemed like you were focusing on the pitching over team building.
  15. kramnoj
    offense is great and puts butts in the seats, but pitching wins championships. Teams that do well in the post season do very well in all 3 phases of the game; offense, defense, and pitching. These are two different statements. The second one is obviously true. It contradicts the first statement.
  16. kramnoj
    offense is great and puts butts in the seats, but pitching wins championships. How much truth is there to this? Having great pitching didn't help the Braves win championships. I did a cursory look at WS champions during the WC era, and I didn't find one overwhelming characteristic. Teams need to be good and there are different ways to make that happen.
  17. kramnoj
    Deadspin has an interesting piece on the Manny story and how they were trying to break it for months. It's a good look inside media. It should be noted that this piece isn't about Manny. Just in case someone reads the first half of the piece and thinks they know the whole story.
  18. kramnoj
    That's $7 million from the $207 million he'll have earned in his career from salary alone once the 2010 season is over. To me that doesn't seem to be significant especially if PEDs helped him earn most of that money. You may not think that $7M is significant to Manny, but Manny held out for a long time to get the most money he could. That may be a pride thing, or it may be that he wants the most money he can get. It may only be 3% of his career earnings, but I think there are are few people to whom $7M is truly insignificant.
  19. kramnoj
    I wonder if, in some small way, Manny's suspension has a role in this. Manny being gone for 50 games won't be worth 5 games, or 9 games, but it certainly does open that division up a bit when it seemed like they were building a formidable lead.
  20. kramnoj
    Because their numbers were huge with them and they can't afford for their sake or the teams to let them decline. *edit* Plus, Manny as an example, they make MILLIONS based off those numbers! If Manny did what he did for money, he messed up big time. This will cost him over $7M this year, and he already had the best contract that he could get.
  21. kramnoj
    Per the link, it is believed that Manny will say he was given something by a doctor that caused him to test positive.
  22. kramnoj
    Seriously, who cares? Does it really bother you that much? It's either a valid point that needs to be substantiated, or it's not true, in which case it doesn't have much value. That seems like a fairly big distinction to me.
  23. kramnoj
    Oh come on... is it really worth dragging down into semantics? It's not semantics. It's either true or it isn't. Honestly, 'worst since 1918' isn't good enough to just let it go? It's not, because we don't have play by play data going back to 1918. Since you don't trust ZR, which is based on PBP data, why should we trust anything based on less data? The point is that he was terrible... historically bad, and that comparing even Gamel to him isn't very useful. Why would that be true? We don't know how Gamel will be as a major league 3B. We know that he had 53 errors in in 115 games one season and that Braun had 31 errors in 115 games one season. We know that in the season that each of them had their highest error total that Gamel made 2.23 plays/per game and than Braun made 2.19 plays/per game. How do we have enough data to definitively know that Gamel shouldn't be compared to Braun?
  24. kramnoj
    I'm not really exaggerating about this. Saying that he is the worst ever is either true, or it's not. If you can't back it up as a fact, than you are exaggerating. He clearly had one of the worst seasons anyone has had. But that's not what you first wrote.
  25. kramnoj
    So all I'm saying is that I see people here drool over the way he portays himself to the public I think a part of that "drooling" is that it's coming from the first homegrown player in a long time to sign a long term commitment to the Brewers. If these comments were coming from say, Kendall, I don't think the reaction would be the same.
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