kramnoj

Slight tangent: based on the discussion here, I emailed Tom Haudricourt at 11:45 to see if he had heard anything. He responded at 12:29 that it was news to him and he would look into it. It is odd that community members sometimes have better sources than beat guys. This is probably one of those times where the speed of the news isn't as important as the news itself. Whatever will be known would have been known by mid-afternoon anyway, we just got the scoop hours earlier because of the connectedness of the fans here with people in the know.

You are concerned about his nerves affecting his defense. I am more concerned about his offensive deficiencies. The expected offensive contribution from Escobar and Counsell is basically negligible, especially in 3 games, right? For someone who wrote that CC's expected contribution to the Brewers was going to be a couple of wins, there has to be almost no difference between Escobar and Counsell. That basically leaves their defense. Escobar is projected to be a guy that is at the top of his position, a +20 or something like that. I would think he has to have the most projected value over the next 3 games and beyond if neccessary. Edit: Adjust it using what? Baseball is not played on paper or in a simulation model, it's played out on the field. If someone has better knowledge, I'm sure they will correct me, but as I understand it, translation tools look at past players performance in the minors and then how they did in the majors. Once you get a large enough sample, you can provide some translations of what a player does in the minors compared to what they will do in the majors. There's also enough data to look at minor league park factors understand the need for having stats and using them to evaluate players. However, I think some people take it way to far sometimes. Information is a tool. There is nothing wrong with any tool, it just matters how it is used. Believe it or not there are things that happen on the field that can not be measured in statistical terms. Can you provide an example of something that you have witnessed that can't be measured in statistical terms? Everything that happens is measured. The only thing that matters is how you use the measurements of what happened when making future decisions.

Strawman. Nobody here has hinted that Escobar should be playing because he should hit .328 over 3 games. I am concerned that a 21 year old starting his first major league games against the Cubs with the playoffs on the line might have some yips defensively.

According to an updated translation tool, Escobar's season this year was .282/.308/.363. The spreadsheet can be found here, for those interested: http://www.baseballthinkf...inor_league_translations/

Assuming worst case scenario, that Hardy is done until spring training, what do the Brewers do? Counsell at short unless it's a lefty, then Escobar? Just give it to Escobar for the next 3 games and see how he handles the pressure?

This market can only support a payroll in the 80-85 million range with current ticket, pricing, revenue sharing, media dollars, and club expenses, and that's with attendance in the 3 million range There's no reason to think that ticket prices will stay the same. Ticket prices have gone up in previous years, they are going to go up this year as well. Media dollars will presumably increase somewhere during CC's contract that he will sign this offseason. I would guess the Brewers media rights are worth a few million more right now if they were available, and could be worth more a few years down the road. It would be risky to sign a deal based on future anticipated dollars, but I think CC is worth the risk. Look for the Cubs to play a role in the bidding as they can almost print money, and it helps them and hurts the Brewers who are the chief competition. I haven't looked closely at the Cubs payroll for next year, but I don't think it's a given that a Cub team going through ownership transition will be able to add CC to future obligations.

If you don't understand why people would be concerned with Yo pitching tomorrow, I really don't know what else to say. This is what you think, that I don't understand people's concern? Are you actually reading what I have written? Look at my comment in 313: "As far as being less than thrilled, it is certainly understandable to have concern, but to be strongly opposed to something based on incomplete information is different. " You have twice called me argumentative, and you are now completely misrepresenting what I have written. I think one thing that is in play here is that we are used to second guessing baseball decisions. After all, baseball people are professional, but it's not like they have a license or went through years of complicated education to have the knowledge and positions they do. It becomes so second-nature to second-guess baseball decisions that people are using their personal experience and knowledge to question the judgment of medical professionals. We have people saying there was no way Gallardo could come back, that it would be a literal miracle, that it would be a medical marvel. We have one person so sure that they said they would seriously quit this board if Gallardo pitched in the 2008 season. It's certainly reasonable to have doubt when seeing something that hasn't been seen before, and it's certainly reasonable to have concern about the Brewers #1 pitcher next year. I don't think anybody has expressed the opinion that Gallardo should be pitching if there was the remotest chance that he wasn't 100%. But a doctor has cleared him to play, and I think the opinion of a medical professional should have more weight than the anecdotal experience of the rest of us.

No one that's posted in this thread has the accused the Brewers of intenionally risking Yo's knee How else should this be read? It's not playoffs or bust for me personally, I'm more concerned with the longterm health of the franchise, which at this point in time includes the longterm health of Yo and Parra, like many of the other young players. A full recovery from an ACL surgery in less than 6 months is astounding... I don't care if you don't believe me, go look it up yourself, there's plenty of information out there. I don't get this comment at all. I've never expressed anything that said that Gallardo's recovery isn't astounding. I've expressed the opinion that people here don't have inside knowledge of Gallardo's recovery, and that any other knowledge they have doesn't pertain to Gallardo and his rehab.

Instead of being contrary, take the time to actually understand that no one has posted they "know better" about this particular injury, some people would rather err on the side of caution, and I believe that's a reasonable stance to take How am I being contrary? There is a limit to being cautious. Athletes get injured when they are healthy in freak incidents. There's no reason to hold Gallardo back if he has passed whatever tests and expectations that are needed to deem him healthy. I don't think there's a person associated with the Brewers that has a playoff or bust mentality when it comes to Gallardo's knee. If you do, I think you should provide some evidence to support that.

This is my opinion only, but I'm guessing that McClung is prepared to step in and contribute if any of our SP don't go deep over the next few days. He really isn't stretched out enough to be expected to provide 5-6 IP, but he could certainly muscle through 3-4 if needed.

, on the other hand, would rather have said "no" and waited until next season when his chances of re-injuring the same knee was next to nil. Why do you think the chance of re-injuring the same knee is not next to nil now? Yo is a young, professional athlete and presumably had access to top of the line facilities and rehab professionals. Anything that a lay person knows about previous cases isn't relevant to the specific case of Gallardo and his current health. If anybody, however, wants to give me an absolute 100% money-back guarantee that he will absolutely not re-injure that knee in 2008, I will listen with all earnestness as a Kindergartener hearing a Curious George story. If not, please allow me to be less than thrilled with the decision. This is an unreasonable request. Gallardo could be perfectly healthy and still re-injure the same knee through a freak incident, just like the incident that injured him when he was healthy before. As far as being less than thrilled, it is certainly understandable to have concern, but to be strongly opposed to something based on incomplete information is different.

I am strongly opposed to Gallardo getting the start or any appearances, for that matter At this point, do you really think you have better knowledge about Yo's health and the potential risk than the Brewers medical staff, front office and coaches (not to mention Gallardo himself)? Brewers Live reported that Yo took batting practice today and hit some home runs. I had guessed that Yo would not even bother to swing at a ball, I guess he and the team feel more comfortable than I had thought.

It looks like that 30% of his doubles are occurring in the last 17% of the season. I asked you why you thought it would happen. That wasn't a gotcha question. I was wondering what your reasoning was. Did you see something in Prince that led you to believe this would happen? Were you just counting on him to hit his recent averages? I'd actually be impressed if you saw something coming , explained why it would happen and then predicted it would happen and it happened. As it is, it still looks like Prince will hit fewer doubles than last year, and of course he will hit fewer home runs as well.

I don't know how reliable the probables on Brewers.com are, but right now CC is listed as probable on Wednesday and Sunday, and Sheets is listed as probable on Saturday (all games beyond tonight had previously been listed as TBA). Thursday and Friday still TBA. It would make sense if Gallardo goes on Thursday and then either Suppan or McClung goes on Friday.

A ton. Assuming Branyan is starting for Hall like I explained in my scenario then Gross becomes the #1 pinch hit option off the bench ahead of Counsell. He could also give Cameron and Hart days off against tough righties. I believe Cameron has missed a few games with nagging injuries this year, he provides value there etc. A ton needs to be quantified to provide any kind of meaning. According to Chris Dial's Offense plus Defense Rating, Gross this year has provided a value of 4.5 runs above average for a RF, so less than half a win. That is through Sep 3rd, the last time the spreadsheet was updated. That is with him getting 286 ABs and starting 87 games (well, not quite, as the rating only goes to the beginning of the month, but hopefully the point is clear). I don't think he comes close to that amount of playing time in a Brewer uniform.

At this point, they probably feel they need Gallardo's pitching too much to worry about being a negative value with a bat or on the bases. If he does start, they could just tell him to go up and stand at the plate and not swing. It will probably only be 2 or 3 PA anyway.

How many ABs does Gross get in that scenario? What kind of value is he providing being the 5th OF? How many ABs does he take away from Cameron, Braun and Hart when they were a better player so he could stay fresh? The Brewers at one point had so much trouble with their pitching that they only had a 3 man bench.

Getting a player who may provide value is better than cutting Gross. Gross was out of options, right? The Brewers were going to have to make a roster move to activate Cameron and keep all the players they wanted to have for 2008. The Brewers would have been better off by cutting Gagne. Other than that, I'm not sure there was a way to keep Gross on the team for the entire year to be available if two of their best OF were injured at the same time.

Management did. They could've optioned Gwynn and kept Gross. That made more sense than trading Gross for nothing, keeping Gwynn on the roster and then optioning Gwynn later anyways. One of the points of this is Gross theoretical value to the team in Aug-Sep. Gwynn being on the team and then being optioned has nothing to do with whether Gross would have been on this team later this year. Gross was not traded for nothing. It doesn't help to make a point when you aren't being truthful. Gross was traded for nothing that would help the team this year, but he wasn't expected to provide much value to this team anyway, seeing limited action while taking up a roster spot for a player that would be needed later in the year.

How much action would Gross have seen if he stayed, until the last month? He was a 5th OF, and the Brewers wanted pitching depth rather than have a decent player sit on the bench, or take away ABs from better players just to keep a bench guy active. It is certainly reasonable to say that the Brewers should have cut Gagne, but we know that wasn't an option. There was strong sentiment to cut Mota, but Mota has actually performed well over the season. Some wanted McClung to be cut, but he has provided good value to the team. Is there a point to the Gwynn comment? It's not like the players kept Gwynn over Gross.

Brantley's translation for his 2008 season is .307/.361/.379. That would put him in the middle of the pack of OPS among MLB CF this year. I guess the question is how good is his defense expected to be? He's only played 64 games in CF total the last 2 years. Baseball-reference doesn't tell me where he played in the OF in 2006. I think it's asking a lot to expect a 22 year old who hasn't seen time in AAA to make the leap and play a position that he hasn't even played half a season at over the last 2 years. And if he isn't ready, or gets hurt, that leaves us with whoever our 4th OF is or Gwynn to step in.

That all being said...why spend $10 million on a guy, Cameron, that does exactley what everyone else does? Why not get some balance? The thing that needs to be looked at here is who is available? If you don't pick up Cameron's option, who are the options that could replace him? That's not a rhetorical question. Some here advocate Hart. I don't think there's much reason to believe that the Brewers support this. I think one of the reasons that LaPorta was traded was because the Brewers didn't see a spot on the Brewers team for him next year. If the Brewers were thinking that Hart could man CF next year, I don't see them trading away a 2009 starting outfielder for CC. I wold guess that the Brewers were hopeful that Gwynn would progress enough that he could be the starting CF for 2009. Unfortunately that didn't happen. He could play the position defensively, but his bat would be projected to be awful. If you look at FA, I don't think there's one FA CF that would be projected to have total plus value at CF, and if they did, they would cost a lot more than one year at $10M. There's the possibilty of trades. Players like Juan Pierre, Gary Matthews, Coco Crisp. I don't want any of those players. It's possible that Mevlin is scouring the minor leagues or major league benches for a pickup like Podsednik or Clark. If he can find that, I would be happy with that because he has had success in acquiring players off the typical fan radar that have provided value. The Brewers would be hard-pressed to spend $10 million more efficiently in this offseason than they could on picking up Cameron's option. Edit: If Strikeouts by the pitcher are considered a good thing, doesn't that inherently make them bad from the batters perspective? Someone may provide a better explanation than me, but I'll provide my understanding. Ks from a pitcher show dominance, and the less plays the defense has to make is going to improve the success of the pitcher. For a hitter, Ks have a high correlation to power. For the vast majority of hitters, you won't have power unless you have a swing that will translate to Ks. There is a limit. If you strike out more than once every three at bats, the chance of being productive when the ball is put in play is small. Also, major league clubs do a good job selecting the population of minor league players that will strike out, but will also have power. Players who strike out a lot without being productive don't really make it to the major leagues.

A stat like ERA+ takes park factors into account. Cain is a #2 pitcher who throws 190+ IP. His k/BB isn't dominating, but his results have been good.

I may be wrong, but I believe it would be slightly more accurate to say that Cameron has 25 PA with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out. I believe the other 6 PA include 3 walks and his 3 SF in that situation. He does have 6 ks and one GDP in that situation. Anyway, the real question is how much total value does Cameron bring to the table. A player might only come to bat with a runner on 3rd and less than out a couple dozen times a season. I would rather factor in how valuable a player will be over a season rather than look at how they do in 10% or less of their season.

Thinking a bit more about it, I agree that I would prefer Gallardo to start Thursday if he pitches this week. If he pitched against the Cubs, he might just get super amped and lead to bad results (either pitching wise or physically). The games all mean the same of course, but I think he might have a little less pressure against the Pirates. I think I would still give Suppan the start on Saturday, but he would be pitching on the the shortest leash of his life and every pitcher except for CC would be available (and Sheets of course, because if he is available, he would be pitching).