BuckyBrewer61
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Everything posted by BuckyBrewer61
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Interesting strategy here to throw McCutchen fastballs down the middle... -
Which makes his OPS such an overrated joke of an argument. Who cares that his slugging percentage is so high when his 29 home runs are almost all solo shots? The batter has zero control over how many players are on base when he steps to the plate. Unless there is a reliable clutchiness stat out there I'll take OPS as a pretty good stat. Edit: Point taken, he stinks with RISP this year
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Looks like record was just last year, and done by two guys. Both Jed Gyorko and Curtis Granderson had 30 HR and 59 RBi
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IDK that final series in 2008 was pretty huge. For sure, but that series meant nothing to the Cubs. If it's a battle for the division in a couple weeks it will be epic.
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Nelson out for the year, will miss time in 2018 (post #150)
BuckyBrewer61 replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If the Yankees lost 3 starters this year on offense plans would already be set to eliminate the DH for next season. -
How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?
BuckyBrewer61 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There is no CF in that lineup, and no I don't count Villar as one. That said I agree, quit trying to get cute/lucky by batting Perez first or putting Villar in CF. Set a lineup like we did in the first half. We are what we are, either the stability will help or it won't. Either way if the middle of the order doesn't wake up, it won't matter what the order is. -
Keep him in Craig, he's about to find his control, I can feel it
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It's not like Sogard or Thames are must-haves in the lineup, if you care that much about getting Villar in the lineup, then bench one of those guys. Fine. But don't put an already average defender out of position in one of the most important defensive positions on the field.
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So stupid to have Villar in center
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It was only a matter of time before Villar blew one in CF
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3 Wash (1-2) 3 @ Cinci (2-1) 3 @ Chubs (1-2) 3 Pitt (2-1) 3 @ Miami (2-1) 3 @Pitt (1-2) 4 Chubs (3-1) 3 Cinci (3-0) 3 @ StL (2-1) 17-11, I would obviously take that. Realistically, deep down I don't think we pull that off, and say we drop an extra couple games against the Cubs and Pirates and play down to the Reds. But hey, we don't get to have fun like this in September often so let's aim high. I don't expect it, but if we are somehow within a game or two of the Cubs going into our 4-game set at Miller Park, all bets are off. In that case, for no logical reason whatsoever given a lifetime of Brewers disappointing fandom, I think we somehow take at least 3 of those games.
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I have no ill will towards Lucroy, he also wanted to sign an extension with the Brewers. After reading his comments during our series in Denver, it seems more than anything that he's a loyal guy who is a bit hurt by the business-like, non-loyal nature of professional sports. He was great with the Brewers, but signing an aging catcher to a market value extension didn't make any sense for a rebuilding team. He seemed to take some offense to that. There is no team in all of sports I'd like to knock out of the playoffs more than the Chicago Cubs
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After this weekend, our schedules are essentially the same. If we are still within 3 on Monday, the division is still within reach.
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And who's error started it all off? I agree many can be quick to jump on Garza, but numbers don't lie. 4.67 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 4.94 FIP. And all those numbers climbing tonight. Fact is, Matt Garza is not a good pitcher.
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Been a lot of talk of the Cubs' easy 2nd half schedule, but the biggest remaining difference is this weekend. We have 4 against WAS while the Cubs have 4 against ATL. After that, the schedules are pretty much equal including 7 head-to-head matchups. Come out of this weekend within a couple games, and this is going to be one heck of an interesting month. Heck, we gained on them against LA while they played PHI, let's get even this week!
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There's a big difference between a post of pessimism with reason versus outright negativity, even when they are born of the same thought. To say you're worried a go ahead HR in the 5th may be the ballgame because the Brewers have struggled to score last in games...pessimistic, but makes sense and understandable. I admit to being a bit of a pessimist of a baseball fan and thinking this myself tonight. To just call ballgame in the 6th down 1, or a series sweep halfway through the first game just sounds reactionary and whiny and wears thin on many posters.
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As I went to bed last night after last game's IGT I thought of this exact scene. Perfect. EDIT: Although thought of it as a reaction to the outright negative posters...
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I'm an admitted replay hater, but that was beautiful. Obviously wrong call, took 10 seconds of review, and the game moves on. How it was always meant to work, though often does not.
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Man, I'll admit to being a pessimist of a baseball fan at times...but apparently a two run deficit in the 5th means the game, series, and possibly season are over?
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This used to really bother me, like he got my hopes up and made a home run call on a stupid fly ball. But then I thought...if I was watching the game myself on TV or in person, I'd have the same reaction. Is it gone? Is it short? Get up! Crap. So now I agree, I kind of like it as I go through the same emotions as he does.
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Villar attempting to steal down 8. Nice.
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Excellent post. Gets to the likely true answer of to bunt or not to bunt, which is...it depends. Compared to what MLB managers have at their disposal, we have very limited information. Are there scenarios where bunting is statistically favorable? I'm sure there are, but I'd guess based on limited research of what is readily available (and MLB managerial trends) that those scenarios are statistically few and far between. In the end, in this day of endless data, the manager has to decide whether to go with the odds or go with his gut based on the situation. We often say it's the manager's job to put his team in the best position to win. Generally speaking, I'd argue to go against objective data would be to not do so.
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A cursory search shows the rate of successful MLB sac bunt attempts is 70-80%, honestly seems high to me. But let's give the benefit of the doubt on the high range of success given our data: From the link in this thread, we know the odds of scoring at least one run with a man on 2nd (+/- 1st as well) with no one out = 61% Next, the odds of scoring at least one run when bunting with a man on 2nd (+\- 1st as well) and no one out = Odds of a successful sac bunt attempt x Odds of scoring at least one run with a man on 3rd (+/- 2nd as well) and 1 out = 80% x 68% = 54% This obviously does not take into account game situation, matchups, batter at the plate and those due up, etc. But I know which odds I'd rather have.
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It's right there in the link at the start of the thread. The odds of scoring at least one run with a man on 2nd with no out, or a man on 1st and 2nd with no outs is about 61%. The odds of scoring at least one run with a man on 3rd with one out, or a man on 2nd and 3rd with one out, is about 66-68%. So a successful sacrifice bunt increases your odds of scoring at least one run by about 6-8%...not nearly as much as some would like to claim, but yeah in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game you rather have the man on 3rd with one out than on 2nd with no outs. BUT, we all know quite well that sacrifice bunting is not a 100% sure thing, and in this case you'd have to successfully sacrifice at least 90% of the time to increase your odds of scoring at least one run. I don't know the stats, but I'd imagine today's major leaguers aren't nearly that successful. So you can make all the subjective arguments you want about more ways to score, scoring without a hit, etc etc. But the objective evidence is pretty straightforward, bunting decreases your expected number of runs while not increasing your chance of scoring at least one run unless you have a hall of fame sacrifice bunting specialist up there at the plate.
