bill hAll Star

There aren't too many aces out there in the Brewers' price range, right? I know you're not supporting it, but I guess it would have to be done via trade. Zimmermann terrifies me. He seems to be a hot name discussed in bar discussions of Brewer fans for the "oh yeah, he'd come at a hometown discount, wouldn't he?" and I fear that his contract will be a little bit more expensive and only a little bit more productive than the Garza deal has been.

Feels odd to be on the other side of the tomatoes being thrown at a trade offer, I will say that. I guess I shouldn't have thrown such a ridiculous one at the wall for my first foray into it.

I was just banging the drum of Braun getting back pretty good value in a trade earlier this year, but what do you guys really think they could get for him? This was a special situation where one team is constrained by a bunch of garbage contracts in their contention window and would like to shed Mauer and another team has a contract with back payments going into the mid 2020s. What do you guys honestly think the Brewers could get for Braun? I'd absolutely take him on his 5-year deal over Mauer on his 3-year deal. Totally agree. The issue is that the Brewers are rebuilding and he's going to rot here for 2-3 years and then be beyond his prime. I'd trade him somewhere else, of course in the meantime. Maybe I'm a bit impatient, but I feel as though there will always be a reason that he won't be traded and suddenly it's going to be 2017 and his value will be mostly gone. What if the package was Berrios, Stewart, Arcia, and Rosario? Throw in Walker isntead of Rosario if you want to get younger with the deal. I'd love to just ship off Lucroy and Braun for prospects. Luc should net 2-3 decent to really good ones and Braun maybe 1 prospect depending on the $ changing hands.

The fans are getting impatient. People are pissed that they didn't make a splash at this last deadline to fight for the last WC spot with an overachieving team. They can tell themselves that they aren't going to move Mauer, but they're going to start sabotaging their chances the next few years unless he really turns it around.

Hypothetical trade that probably would never happen, but would make some sense: The Twins' window should be opening next year. The Brewers hope theirs will be opening in ~3 years. The Twins have a wonderful collection of players that probably will combine for 3 WAR total in Suzuki, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, and Mauer that will make $64 million next year (and some annoying numbers after that). The Pohlads aren't broke, but it's going to be hard to add impact to a roster ready to win (even with all of their good players coming cheap) with that short-term window. Brewers trade: -Lucroy -Braun Twins trade: -Mauer -2 or 3 top prospects not named Buxton/Sano. I'd try to get Berrios but I'd even take a few lower-tier guys if they had potential to be elite. Optional additions to the trade: Garza for Nolasco Lind for more value Why for the Twins? I stated it above. Their window is opening now. They have some annoying money on the books near-term so they won't be able to add much for heavy impact. A few years out, they have to start paying their young guys and Dozier/Plouffe/Perkins. So, why not add some talent short-term at a similar annual cost? Why for the Brewers? Mauer is majorly overpaid at $23 million/year for the next 3 years. Lighten the load of $15+ million dollar, washed up players in 2019/2020 by clearing Braun as well as the urge to give Luc a mega-contract. Now you're talking about having the books completely clear of major contracts going into 2019 when all of your hopeful studs reach the majors. I'd consider throwing Mauer back at catcher, knowing that he could deteriorate if I was in a winning mode and just "get what I can." Since the Brewers are rebuilding, I guess I'd let him keep playing 1B assuming Lind is gone and see if you can't ship him off for some modest value if he finds a way to hit it over the shorter RF porch at Miller Park in 2016 or 2017. Why it probably won't happen: -Even though Mauer has fallen out of favor, he's the prodigal son in MN and they will probably try to find a way to keep him in there to somewhat earn his contract. -Braun comes with baggage. -Mark doesn't seem like one to do a partial salary dump like this.

I don't really care who the catcher is, I'm just hoping not to have Lucroy on the roster at $15+ million/year in 2018 is what I'm saying. Somebody's probably going to pay that, and I hope it's not the Brewers.

1 MPH on the fastball can be a pretty big deal and a sign of worse things to come. He got a bit "lucky" in 2014 and posted a mid 3s ERA, when it should have been low 4s, but still, he had a better year than this year's mid 4s ERA for sure (the peripherals all line up. His slider is down 3 MPH and probably not nearly as effective. K% on that pitch is way down due to righties not being as worried about that pitch. He cannot get lefties out so he was probably never going to be a great pitcher unless he figured that out. Now that his slider and fastball are down, his slider isn't dominating righties and his fastball (4-seamer) is getting pummeled by hitters. Even righties have a respectable high-.700s OPS, which were what he needed to feast on to be a good pitcher.

They'll deteriorate and be low-WAR players while not reaping the ability to get prospects in return. Lucroy, assuming we didn't get bad luck and he's completely come unraveled as a player, is the key to this rebuild IMO. Trade him and get a good return this offseason or next trade deadline. The alternative is don't trade him and enjoy the low-.700s converted-1B or catcher that struggles to stay out there every day. He can be our Joe Mauer (at 2/3 of the annual cost). Catchers don't do very well beyond 32. Pierzynski is having a renaissance decent year (was pretty bad most years after 30), but Mauer (not catching anymore) and Molina are done as good hitters. McCann and Martin are both beginning to decline at age 32 - their only prop this year (McCann is having a good year) is their home ballparks. McCann is mashing the short porch and Martin his hitting well at home. Long story short, trade Lucroy ASAP assuming his value rises at all.

I think fans get a little too excited by their own prospects. In 5 years when some of those guys progress will 25% of them be decent MLB players? Maybe. Yadiel Rivera - I'd rather have a journeyman utility player at 2B than him. Am I supposed to be excited about a 23-year-old 2B OPSing .570 in the PCL? Gilbert Lara - Plenty of time to develop. However, he's 17 and has a sub-.600 OPS. I'll start to consider him down the road as he moves up the levels. Clint Coulter - Again, only 21, but OPSing barely over .700 in A+ ball. Monte Harrison - Very young, struggling after move up to A ball. Once again, could be good given that he's only 19...but he's only 19. Gatewood - Struggling in A ball at age 19. I'd say you can write off Yadiel Rivera as a productive MLB player and maybe Coulter. The rest of the guys are way too young, have plenty of talent, but aren't setting the world on fire (I don't expect them to, but they aren't banging on the door of AA). Santana I like, but there was a write-up about how has one of the highest swing-and-miss percentages for a hitter of his stature. Phillips, yeah. Clark is 18 but has promise. Arcia of course looks like he is going to be very good. Point being, am I supposed to be extremely excited about that lineup? Looks like 2 guys that have a high-percentage chance to be pretty good and a bunch of 17/18/19 year-old players with some talent. We're excited about the 17/18/19 year-old ones because they were high-ceiling draftees, but their numbers coupled with the percentage of guys that actually make it suggest a high failure rate.

OK, back on topic then: With Attanasio actually sounding like he's OK with a rebuild...when/for what would you be OK with trading Braun for? Would you take less to get the deal done? Would you pay for a year or two of the deal to do it? I would be fascinated to know what, if anything, would be offered in return.

You guys are missing the biggest factor. I'd have to think money would be a concern (yes, I know he has more money than anyone ever needs). Why stop? Because his next suspension will cost him $20 million dollars (162 games), and if he was stupid enough to get another one, he'd void the rest of his contract by being banned from MLB (whatever is left of his $100+ million dollar deal if that happened).

The good thing on the veteran list is that only a handful are pitching well, and most of them are too old probably even for Mark's standards to bring in on a new contract. If they do, some of the guys that are pitching well (Vogelsong (stadium-aided), Young (defense-aided), Burnett, Lackey) would all be old enough that 1, MAYBE 2 years is about all any sane owner/GM could go, even Mark. The younger ones, Estrada, Kazmir, Lincecum, I can't imagine Mark winning the bid for them. Simon scares me. I'm glad that he's having a down year, because he's the one on that list that kind of fits the Lohse criteria otherwise. Everyone on the list is either so bad or so old that they'd only get a 1-year deal, are retiring, or are going to be priced out of the market.

Great, I'd love to fill the entire bullpen solely with guys that have "closer experience." Obviously there was very good success brought on by some great draft picks in their rebuild early in his tenure, and the robbery of a trade for Cabrera. His trades/moves to me seem to make a ton of sense or become complete failures, with not many "so-so" moves. I guess one can't complain with several World Series appearances. It just always seemed that a few moves were "off" with him such as the bullpen, but no baseball exec bats 1.000, I guess. Moral of the story: I'd live with it but at this point maybe a younger, very forward-thinking/outside-the-box GM would be best.

I'd trade him next offseason or trade deadline, assuming his value jumps back up a bit. I'm assuming what will happen is that Mark will sign him to a 5-year, $85 million extension at the end of his age 31-32 season and we'll have this type of guy as our first baseman starting in about 2019.

I'm going to make a total guess: -Player coming back is not ever going to be an MLB guy. -Brewers pick up 2015 tab, Cards on the hook for option or $2m buyout in 2016.

If you had to pick between a 1st round pick (that is not guaranteed to come to you - his market could dry up (unlikely), major injury, etc.) and a 22-year old guy that is likely going to be an MLB rotation pitcher with 6-years of control, but you know isn't going to turn into Zack Greinke...I'd probably take Davies.

Brewers can start going to the scrap heap to get DFAs and such to finish the year, I hope.

I agree I would not just give him away, but I'd put the chances at Lind being hurt/not performing as well next deadline at 75%.

I doubt he's doing this to "keep his job" considering the owner is the one that has a major hand in firing him as well as must OK the team adding $75 million in future payroll (factoring in that Reyes is gone). You do? Ok. He's traded everything that isn't nailed down in an attempt to make the playoffs. And almost certainly the 1 game playoff. Yeah, the owner had to sign off, but Anthopolous came up with this garbage. One of the more ridiculous trade deadlines I can recall for a team that wasn't and isnt a contender. Their pitching still stinks. I agree with your lower paragraph. If a team that generally doesn't spend that much money adds $75+ million in payroll, that probably has something to do with the owner. In which case, if the owner said "go and get it done this year at any cost" - he did pretty well IMO. If Anthopolous honestly went to the owner and desperately said, "here is a list of trades" and the owner signed off, knowing that this was Alex's last chance to save his job, then the owner is an idiot and Anthopolous is one heck of a salesman, convincing the owner to light his ship on fire before throwing Alex off.

Until the Blue Jays went wild, the White Sox were my pick to get the 2nd Wild Card. I was not a fan of many of their offensive players, but it seems as though Eaton has become "good enough" and streaky guys like Melky and Alexei are starting to get going. Couple that with 4 of their 5 starters all either being good or starting to come around and they are tough to beat, even if their offense only improved to "decent." They need to get Danks out of there and need to bolster the pen a little bit.

They're back in the race and their offense was not good most of the season?

I doubt he's doing this to "keep his job" considering the owner is the one that has a major hand in firing him as well as must OK the team adding $75 million in future payroll (factoring in that Reyes is gone).

Not only that, it's probably just for the Wild Card, and they're 2 games out on that one. We'll see. They seem to think they have 1 more year of a window after this one as Bautista/Encarnacion age and have 1 year left on their deals, but Price likely won't be around.

The only two that I care about are Parra and Cotts. The others are under team control for another year or more. No need to trade them now for less than we could get if we traded them after the season. You're right that this is a reason that I won't completely jump off the ship. That said, it is very, very likely that the stock will only go down for Lind, Gomez, maybe Fiers, and K-Rod. Lucroy and Braun are hard to put a direction on. Lucroy's numbers should improve but if somebody believes he's just got bad numbers due to the early season injury but is ready to go, telling teams "he has 2 more affordable years left" is better than telling teams "he has 1 more affordable year left." Lind - Could easily get hurt. He's hitting about as well as he can. You can try to get more value by telling teams they'll have him for an extra year. Gomez - Numbers aren't great and injury situation is cloudy, but you can market the extra contract year. Fiers - Pitching very well and has been erratic over his career. You don't want to just give him away, but every year the "X years of control left!" is X-1. K-Rod - He's pitching well. Contract is so-so. I'll bet the brewers would pay for the deferred part, but his stock is pretty high, and you can still say that they won't have to deal with re-signing him. Braun - Hard to say. His contract still looks bad but he's hitting pretty well. It's possible that in a year or two he falls off a cliff in production and still has a few expensive years left. Maybe you can eat a year or two (easier said than done) to get some value back for him. Lucroy - See my comments in the paragraph earlier about him. His numbers aren't great, but saying "2 very affordable years!" is better than "1 affordable year left!" He could obviously get injured, too. Of course, with all of these guys, you don't want to give them away. However, other than Braun/Luc as "not sure" - these guys' stock will never be higher in a Brewer uniform.

The crazy thing is that the Mets' payroll current status and outlook looks almost exactly like the Brewers'. Wright/Braun are basically the only guys on the books beyond 2016/2017 (and Lagares for the Mets, I guess).