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OldSchoolSnapper

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Everything posted by OldSchoolSnapper

  1. OldSchoolSnapper
    I actually disagree - based on pitching matchups this is probably the Cubs' best chance for a W, and the Brewers best chance for a L for their remaining 3 games. I'll be happy if the Brewers are still 1 game back, and enthusiastic if they pick up a game. In fact if the Brewers find themselves tied with the Cubs after tonight, I'd put their chances at winning the division outright at higher than 50% even with only 2 games remaining. Also, the odds stuff is kind of dumb, captain obvious stuff at this point in the season. Of course it's about 1/3 with only 3 games left for the team trailing by 1 game. Not worried about probability percentages any more when it's literally two teams competing for a division within a game of each other with 3 games left. That's not really how it works. The formulas are a lot more complicated than "there are 3 games left so the odds are 1/3." 538 is the more generous of the two major forecasters and Fangraphs has us at less than 1/4 with I think is probably closer to correct. I do agree if end tonight tied, we become the favorite and I think the odds will reflect that.
  2. OldSchoolSnapper
    Weird, I could have sworn the Cubs game Sunday was 1:10 or something, now I see it's 2:20, must have been seeing things. So if Sunday matters, both of us are playing simultaneously.
  3. OldSchoolSnapper
    Playing to wreck it, sure, but everybody out there is a human being too. There have got to be guys on that team ready to head back to San Diego/Miami/Maui for the offseason, sick of the grind, the losing and travel. I can't believe those sorts of things don't come into play for at least some of the roster when you're winning 60 games.
  4. OldSchoolSnapper
    We basically have that every day. Their results will be known before our games are done barring rain. Great. Edit: Not Sunday where the start times are 10 min apart. Weird, I was sure I checked that, but I see no indication the times changed.
  5. OldSchoolSnapper
    I appreciate the randomness that is baseball, but the Brewers should sweep them and I consider it failure if they don't unless a game is meaningless and we trot out the B team. That team sucks, the roster is gutted, it will be in front of the best crowd all year. If the division is alive and we lose to Detroit we deserve our fate.
  6. OldSchoolSnapper
    I agree completely, but dropping the WC would really be deflating. At least it's in Milwaukee. It would be cool to take out the team that outbid us for Machado if it comes to that.
  7. OldSchoolSnapper
    I think we need to pick up a game tonight or it's WC time. Hard to imagine the Cubs lose the final two and we complete the sweep. Their win last night dropped our odds to about 1/3, so if we stay a game back after tonight it gets pretty bleak. If we lose a game in the standings tonight, I think you have to start balancing resting arms with your chances at the division.
  8. OldSchoolSnapper
    Win-Loss Record: 11-7 3-1 NLDS 4-3 NLCS 4-3 WS Highest Playoff Level Achieved: Champs, baby Offensive MVP: Christian Yelich Pitching MVP: Jeremy Jeffress Most Surprising Player: Jonathan Schoop Most Disappointing Player: Jesus Aguilar We win the division. The bullpen finishes the job and offense comes up with opportune hits to gut it out. We've suffered long enough and it's our turn.
  9. OldSchoolSnapper
    Wow, I did not realize we were in such exclusive company. Tampa and Miami came about in the 90s, so that is even worse.
  10. OldSchoolSnapper
    You will be fine. I have had reg season games sell 20 minutes before a start time, granted I don't believe you can list them that late. Six hours is plenty, even three hours is plenty. There will be people checking constantly and if you price to sell and not gouge, i.e., sell them 1 penny less than the cheapest seat available, you will not lose any money. I'm almost sure of that.
  11. OldSchoolSnapper
    I can see this as a very real possibility. Catching some of the highlights from gameday from last nights game, even the Pirates announcers seemed to be pulling for the Brewers to overtake the Cubs.... as much as can be however... lol. And i bet the Pirates would take great pride in damaging a team's division chances. Tonight should be fun to watch. Especially since we aren't playing, for one day, the pressure is not on us! I thought the same thing as I watched that game. I don't watch them enough to know if they're always like that, but it was weird to me, or maybe just that our guys don't do that. "C'mon, strike him out," was a particularly weird moment from a broadcaster for me. At one point the play-by-play mentioned that Brewers fans are going nuts. It was a fun game to watch.
  12. OldSchoolSnapper
    I'd go with Lyles, Kratz and Perez.
  13. OldSchoolSnapper
    I know it is, but I was more talking to the point that just to get face back on a $100 seat, the list has to be $118. Then the buyer also pays 10%, which brings it to $130. They charge on both ends, which is ingenious for them, but your seat is marked up 30% from face and the seller only broken even.
  14. OldSchoolSnapper
    The price alone will be driving Cubs fans away. The big driver to Miller Park is cost, and that's not going to be at all like it normally is. But a ton of them live here, so I expect them to have a presence. But it's moot because they're going to lose the WC game never play us.
  15. OldSchoolSnapper
    I wouldn't worry too much about your resale, you will have no problem moving those in 6 hours if you're trying to get face. Also, if I bought a $100 ticket and sold it for $180, I walk away with $153. I get the point, but I'm just saying that the seller has to go above face to break even if he uses StubHub.
  16. OldSchoolSnapper
    The economist in me will want to check stubhub on gameday. My guess it drives things WAY down compared to what they would be.
  17. OldSchoolSnapper
    I get what this is going for, but it's getting kind of stupid. My parents would never be able to figure out mobile entry. Forcing people like that to go to a FedEx store or something and print tickets 3 hours before a game seems like a bit much.
  18. OldSchoolSnapper
    I think a lot of people will be tuning out the Packers this weekend. You are underestimating this big time. The Packers are always going to be more popular in this state, regardless of how the teams are actually doing. It sucks, but that's just the way it is. It is pretty awesome that the Brewers are stealing some Packer thunder as we head into October, but to the majority of of Wisconsin sports fans, the Packers will always be #1, probably followed by the Badgers at #2, and the Brewers and Bucks a distant #3-#4. I'm not underestimating it and realize the Packers are always #1 on Sunday, just stating that there will be a lot of people who don't care about a game with the Bills; the eyeballs on the Packers will be fewer than usual this weekend. This happened in the past when the Packers played the Bucs and got walloped on the day the Brewers made the WC in 2008. Nobody cared that the Packers lost and it was barely talked about anywhere. I also think a lot of people are disenchanted with the NFL right now and are looking for a reason not to watch it. Full disclosure, I hate college sports, but the Packers are my #1, ahead of the Brewers, and I've got no intention of even turning that game on.
  19. OldSchoolSnapper
    I think a lot of people will be tuning out the Packers this weekend.
  20. OldSchoolSnapper
    I just went in now to check but never had anything in my cart. WC and Game 1 look done. Game 2 had standing room. Game 3 had terrace left.
  21. OldSchoolSnapper
    The Brewers looked a lot worse than them when their bullpen was gassed in July. I didn't jump on the "Brewers are gonna choke" bandwagon then and I'm not gonna say that about the Cubs now. It doesn't "feel" like they're going to win the division, but all they need is 7-inning starts from Lester and Hendricks to turn things around. Context is everything. You're always hot, until all of a sudden you're not. You're always in a slump, until all of a sudden you're not. The Cubs still control their destiny but I think the Brewers have a great chance to gain one game due to strength of schedule. I'd say a tie for the division is the most likely, with the Brewers having the edge in a tiebreaker game because Chacin will have 4 days rest and the Brewers' bullpen will be more rested as well. Right now I'd say these are the approximate odds: Tie (40%) Cubs by 1 (25%) Brewers by 1 (20%) Cubs by 2 (8%) Brewers by 2 (6%) Someone by 3 (1%) I agree about them getting hot, it could have started last night, but not about their pen. Their pen looks atrocious and almost blew it again last night. There's really nobody they can trust to close a game out right now. And your odds are a bit off. Fangraphs gives us about a 33% shot at the division, 538 at 44%. You're at ~27, which is pretty significantly understated.
  22. OldSchoolSnapper
    Tiebreaker at Wrigley. The field they play on is determined by the series. This can't happen at this point, but it is hypothetically possible to lose that division tiebreaker, then have to play a tiebreaker after that for a wild card spot, win it, and THEN have to play the wild card.
  23. OldSchoolSnapper
    My guess it that it's going to drive secondary market prices way down. There will be a rush of people selling tickets day-of, panicking and needing to sell, and it will be priced to reflect that. It's a pretty smart way to do it, if it all works as it should. Many people prefer printed tickets, so there has to be some time allowed for that.
  24. OldSchoolSnapper
    Let's all just be happy the Cubs don't end with Philly, who decided the season was over 2 weeks ago.
  25. OldSchoolSnapper
    Not sure about that. They can win this game and go 1-2 over the weekend and the Brewers would still win with a sweep. Sweeps are always a challenge, but it's at home against a gutted 60ish win team. The Cubs have a pretty brutal ending stretch of opposing SP. At this point, it is close to 50/50 between us. But basically if they lose today, we become the favorite.
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