CheezWizHed

No one knows how bad it was, but if he was affected by the injury, they should've been listing it on the injury report. Give him another 6 weeks (being generous) to knock off the rust, work back into football shape, and get caught up on the defense and he still had 6 weeks to make an impact (which he didn't). I don't pretend to know what is holding back either Burks or Adams, but guys that can't make an impact in the face of incredible opportunity like they had rarely turn it on suddenly. I think Burks will get another year, but I'm surprised that Adams gets another TC.

I'm sure like everything else in life, these are being negotiated also for the changes going on.

Who knew that the "Range" in Ranger actually meant a cooking appliance...

Fuel is the #1 expense in flying, so I'm certain a 1 hour flight costs significantly less than a 3 hour flight.

looks like a large airplane hanger.

Snapper, I didn't mean to say you did (I didn't quote you). I've heard that a couple places as part of the player safety considerations.

That seems like a very niche reason to keep one player. Since the best starting 5 was pretty muddled in ST, I thought this might be a way to vet out the best 5. Normally your 4th OF or utility IF is going to be fast enough to not need another person for the 1 or 2 times that might happen.

Burks did get hurt at an inopportune time last year (training camp), but he was able to play 12 games last year and had 57 defensive snaps. Given he couldn't get more time with the sorry state of our ILBs last year, I'm not optimistic that he will suddenly become a player. He couldn't outplay Campbell (replaced ILB for passing downs) nor Goodson... two players we didn't even try to retain this year. I hope I'm wrong, but ...

I didn't that they were fudged either. Just that they came to the hospital for something else (i.e. baby) and tested positive for COVID. (note that I'm just reading the OP, not bringing in other knowledge of the situation). Statistics always need to be interpreted with the reality of what is going on. A month ago, MN numbers were spiking...but we also started increasing the test rate by 10x, so of course they were finding more people. But at the same time, hospitalization rates were steady, so they were finding people with minimal symptoms or asymptomatic as they just tested more. So I think his point was that hospitalization rates might be influenced by the number of people coming in for something else and incidentally being (correctly) tested positive for COVID, rather than simply coming in for COVID related reasons. For example, if I went in for an appendectomy and tested positive for COVID (though no symptoms), I'd be counted as COVID positive in a bed and on a respirator, but not because of COVID. I don't know if the statistics are that "dumb" or if they can filter more intelligently. But it wouldn't surprise me if statistics were being "polluted" this way.

I'm predicting a big Corbin bounce-back year for 2020. I think we will get the Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta starting trio we thought we happen last year.

How does "being close" really help health and safety? Teams charter their own planes, so I question why flying 1 or 3 hours really makes a difference. I can see limiting what teams meet so you are only exposed to a limited set of people.

yeah, I get those two mixed up! I started reviewing the roster now that plans are in place and realized how many new people we have this year. I have to refresh my memory on how we got here!

I missed this first time around. Are you saying people that test positive and are sent home are counted as a hospitalization? Or are you saying that people that are not symptomatic are admitted because they have a positive test? I don't believe either case to be true but happy to be proven wrong. I read his statement as people coming in for other reasons, but being logged as COVID-positive, despite being asymptomatic and not there for COVID reasons. The statement just before the part you quoted: This is in large part due to many of these COVID-19 hospitalization patients not showing up at hospitals with just COVID-19 symptoms requiring intubation - there are a large number of patients coming in for other surgeries, childbirths, other critical care that were set to take up a hospital bed for a few days anyways.

My kids loved Jaws, but we watched it at home. I think they've seen Jurassic Park, but its been a number of years.

Given how we had some open questions still going in ST (i.e. Smoak, Burnes, etc), the expanded rosters will help us see if their ST production is legit or if they fall back. The DH also gives us more reason to keep Smoak on the team.

Well, all of them went through their physical in pre-season. I'd hope that their coaches are keeping in touch with them during COVID to track work-out progress. Anyone previously injured would still be doing check-ups with the team doctor. I suppose someone could cut themselves on salad tongs or use the wrong pillow at home and not tell the coach. But I'd think any major injury would be reported and handled by the club.

Pitching is a different animal due to the evolution of an arm over the course of a normal season so something like that wouldn't surprise me. Outfielders diving for balls, yes I expect to see that, because 99% of the players are competitors before businessmen and they got where they are by being better than the best. Pitchers maybe but everyone else...what's the difference between getting hurt during a 162 game season vs a 60 game season? Yeah, I was wondering why short season vs. long season was a problem... I'd think you'd have less fatigue injuries over a short season. Plus, taking a year "off" means the pitcher has to shake off the rust and get the "feel" back. This isn't beer-league softball. These guys are the top 1% of all players (or less). Come back a little "less" than you were and you are out of baseball. Also, if I'm signing a FA and someone took off this year, I'd question his commitment to the game and I wouldn't be signing him to a big deal.

What in the world am I seeing here???

I would hope they would be keeping track of their players so a physical shouldn't be necessary.

With a shortened "pre-season" and initial expanded rosters, I wonder if we would piggy-back starters?

I think signing Bulaga would've made it really difficult to sign our FAs next year. Plus, I love the guy, but he has been breaking down the last couple years. He is great when healthy, but I don't think they wanted to chance the $$ and health. I think this year's FA was evident that they are saving money for next year's group, plus building up the comp picks for next year's draft. For WR breakouts, my analysis shows more of a group improvement instead of an individual. - Davante: 0% improvement: 83 catches, 997 yards - obviously upside left there as he did that in 12 games. - Lazard: 25% improvement: 35/477 becomes 44/596 - Funchess: 25% over Allison: 34/287 becomes 43/359 (though probably more like 35 catches for 359 yards) - MVS: 10% improvement: 26/452 becomes 29/497 - ESB: 10% over Kumerow: 12/219 becomes 13/241 I would say the most likely to really breakout (50%+ over previous) would be Lazard (60-70 catches) or ESB (40 catches). I guess MVS could hit 1000 yards on 40 catches...or he could be cut. I want to believe in the guy's speed, but something is missing.

Even if Williams was back, I doubt he would play as well as last year. Both natural regression to his norm and age fight against him. I think either Sullivan or Williams would play about the same in that position. I think it is a very good chance that Sullivan is playing outside CB next year for King. I've given up on Burks and M. Adams. Lots of talent, but they were no where near the field last year when we really needed help at their positions. I'm guessing Burks stays on for another year simply because we don't have much at ILB, but I doubt Adams makes it through TC. I struggled to put him on the depth chart even. I'm hoping they sign a space-eating DL for depth yet this year. I'll admit that health isn't a factor in my rating as I couldn't quite figure out how to put it in. Kirksey might be the better player, but Martinez was rarely injured (one game missed?) in his Packer tenure. I think I left some "upside" off the list too. I wasn't looking at worst case scenarios, but I'm not convinced the Smiths will regress like I estimated (playing averages here). Lowry and Lancaster had poor years last year, but I left them there. The secondary as a unit could really gel this year with all of them in their second year together.

This chart shows my presumed starters for 2020 and the equivalent person last year in (parenthesis). Note that some times people moved up in the "role" so they don't replace themselves (i.e. Sullivan replacing Williams at Nickel CB). But I tried to slot in people where I'm guessing their approximate amount of snaps will be this year and rated what I think their increase or decrease in performance from the person doing that last year, which is often themselves. [pre]Position Starter +/- Snaps Backup +/- Snaps Depth +/- Snaps Total DE Dean Lowry 0% 50% Treyvon Hester 0% 10% 0% (Lowry) (Keke) NT Kenny Clark 5% 85% Tyler Lancaster 5% 20% 5% (Clark) (Brown) DE Kingsley Keke 5% 50% Montevarious Adams 0% 0% 3% (Lancaster) (Adams) OLB Z-Smith -10% 85% Rashard Gary 5% 50% -6% (Smith) (Fackrell) ILB Christian Kirksey 0% 90% Ty Summers 5% 5% 0% (Martinez) (Summers) ILB Kamal Martin 5% 65% Oren Burks 0% 5% Krys Barnes 0% 0% 3% (Goodson) (Burks) OLB P-Smith -10% 85% Scott/Roberts/Ramsey 0% 10% -9% (Smith) (Gary) LCB Jaire Alexander 5% 95% Josh Jackson -10% 10% 4% (Alexander) (Sullivan) RCB Kevin King -10% 80% Ka'dar Hollman 0% 10% -8% (King) (Jackson) Nickel/ Chandon Sullivan -10% 70% Raven Greene 10% 30% -4% Dime (Williams) (Greene/Campbell) FS Darnell Savage 10% 95% Will Redmond 0% 5% 10% (Savage) (Redmond) SS Adrian Amos 5% 95% Vernon Scott 0% 0% 5% (Amos) (Hollman) Total 3% improvement Given Up: Yards TD Pts 2019 5642 34 313 2020* 5374 32 298[/pre] A little more breakdown on each: NT: Kenny Clark takes another step up in his play. DE: Keke plays better than an out of position Lancaster. OLB: Smith Brothers played so well, some regression is to be expected. ILB: Kirksey can match Martinez if he stays healthy. Martin is a notch above Goodson. CB: King regresses while Jaire steps up. Chandon can't quite fill Williams shoes (he played incredible). S: Amos meshes better with another year in the system and Savage makes a second year jump.

This chart shows my presumed starters for 2020 and the equivalent person last year in (parenthesis). Note that some times people moved up in the "role" so they don't replace themselves (i.e. Sullivan replacing Williams at Nickel CB). But I tried to slot in people where I'm guessing their approximate amount of snaps will be this year and rated what I think their increase or decrease in performance from the person doing that last year, which is often themselves. [pre]Position Starter +/- Snaps Backup +/- Snaps Depth +/- Snaps Total DE Dean Lowry 0% 50% Treyvon Hester 0% 10% 0% (Lowry) (Keke) NT Kenny Clark 5% 85% Tyler Lancaster 5% 20% 5% (Clark) (Brown) DE Kingsley Keke 5% 50% Montevarious Adams 0% 0% 3% (Lancaster) (Adams) OLB Z-Smith -10% 85% Rashard Gary 5% 50% -6% (Smith) (Fackrell) ILB Christian Kirksey 0% 90% Ty Summers 5% 5% 0% (Martinez) (Summers) ILB Kamal Martin 5% 65% Oren Burks 0% 5% Krys Barnes 0% 0% 3% (Goodson) (Burks) OLB P-Smith -10% 85% Scott/Roberts/Ramsey 0% 10% -9% (Smith) (Gary) LCB Jaire Alexander 5% 95% Josh Jackson -10% 10% 4% (Alexander) (Sullivan) RCB Kevin King -10% 80% Ka'dar Hollman 0% 10% -8% (King) (Jackson) Nickel/ Chandon Sullivan -10% 70% Raven Greene 10% 30% -4% Dime (Williams) (Greene/Campbell) FS Darnell Savage 10% 95% Will Redmond 0% 5% 10% (Savage) (Redmond) SS Adrian Amos 5% 95% Vernon Scott 0% 0% 5% (Amos) (Hollman) Total 3% improvment Given Up: Yards TD Pts 2019 5642 34 313 2020* 5374 32 298[/pre] A little more breakdown on each: NT: Kenny Clark takes another step up in his play. DE: Keke plays better than an out of position Lancaster. OLB: Smith Brothers played so well, some regression is to be expected. ILB: Kirksey can match Martinez if he stays healthy. Martin is a notch above Goodson. CB: King regresses while Jaire steps up. Chandon can't quite fill Williams shoes (he played incredible). S: Amos meshes better with another year in the system and Savage makes a second year jump.

Back during the draft, there was obviously a lot of complaints about the state of the WR (and other) position and how we didn't address it. So I thought it would be interesting to see how we would go from person to person (2019 to 2020) with a presumed amount of performance compared to the previous year to really see if we really improved or not. This chart shows my presumed starters for 2020 and the equivalent person last year in (parenthesis). Note that some times people moved up in the "role" so they don't replace themselves (i.e. Sullivan replacing Williams at Nickel CB). But I tried to slot in people where I'm guessing their approximate amount of snaps will be this year and rated what I think their increase or decrease in performance from the person doing that last year, which is often themselves. [pre]Position Starter +/- Snaps Backup +/- Snaps Depth +/- Snaps Total QB Aaron Rodgers 0% 95% Jordan Love 0% 5% 0% (AR) (Boyle) RB Aaron Jones -20% 60% Jamaal Williams -10% 30% AJ Dillon 10% 20% -13% (Jones) (Williams) (Ervin/Carson) FB Josiah Deguara 5% 25% N/A 0% 0% 1% (Danny Vitale) WR Davante Adams 0% 85% Devin Funchess 25% 50% EQ St. Brown 10% 10% 14% (Adams) (Allison) (Kumerow) WR Allen Lazard 25% 80% MVS 10% 20% Reggie Begelton 10% 0% 22% (Lazard) (MVS) (Shepherd) TE Jace Sternberger 0% 65% Marcedes Lewis 0% 45% Robert Tonyan 10% 20% 2% (Graham) (Lewis) (Tonyan) LT David Bakhtiari -10% 95% Alex Light 0% 5% Cody Conway 0% 0% -10% (Bakhtiari) (Light) LG Elgton Jenkins 10% 95% Jon Runyan 0% 5% 10% (Jenkins) (Patrick) C Corey Linsley 0% 85% Lucas Patrick 0% 15% Jake Hanson 0% 0% 0% (Linsley) (Patrick) RG Lane Taylor 5% 95% Billy Turner 5% 5% 5% (Turner) (Madison) RT Rick Wagner -30% 85% Alex Light 0% 5% Yosh Nijman 0% 0% -26% (Bulaga) (Light/Veldheer) Total 5% offensive improvement. Yards TD Pts 2019 5812 44 376 2020* 6117 46 396[/pre] With the predicted defense (298 points), that puts us at a record of 10.6 wins and 5.4 losses, which feels about right. Last year was a very "lucky" year with some of the wins. My mindset: QB: Rodgers is a year older, but second year on the system. Comes out about the same. RB: Regression on Jones' and Williams' excellent years. FB: I'm guessing Deguara is used a lot this year in the HB role. WR: Predicting a bump up for Lazard and MVS but very reachable percentages. Similar for Funchess over Allison. TE: Sternberger is still learning is about the same for Graham (though some big upside possible) LT: Bakhtiari was incredible at the end of last year. I'm guessing some regression is possible. LG: Jenkins' potential for a second year jump. C: Linsley will be Linsley RG: Lane Taylor steps in for Turner. RT: Big step down from Bulaga to Wagner. With only Light as a T backup, there is a big open door for other backup Tackles. I'm a big Nijman fan.