CheezWizHed

I'm shocked that they even knew Wayne's world. Hader was pretty weak as Garth though... if you can't spin the drum sticks... don't even try.

I'd rather see an uncontested 60 yd field goal. That might be more interesting.

Well, I think its more than homeruns. He did OPS 820 last year with a respectable OBP. However: 1) He has done that twice in his career with horrible years before and after. 2) Defense seems to be his WAR downfall. Frankly I'm still a bit surprised by this. I did watch a ton of games last year (30-40), listened to 20-30 more. I can only really think of one bad mistake. The eyeball test didn't seem to think he was bad (not great either, but average). But the metrics sure hate him. Maybe my 1B defensive expectations are too low? 3TO has died.

I would guess there is a 60/40 chance of starting at A+. And unless he goes to A ball and self destructs, a 100% chance he is at A+ this year.

I've seen Zach Clark mentioned several times this offseason as a sleeper. Hopefully, its more than multiple people jumping on one person's opinion.

If you want to add excitement, make the pitcher throw with his weak hand for 4 intentional BBs. Or make the catcher stay in the crouch until the ball is thrown. Force more mistakes that way. I'm not sure if those should be blue or not.... But in the NFL, rather than eliminate the extra point, they made it harder and thus made it more interesting.

But in the thin Colorado air, money travels farther, so its only $20M...

My $0.002 (less than 2 cents) on TT's drafts. Since the question of "starter quality" vs. "starter ability" has been posed, I'll look at the drafts based on ability. For busts, I only considered picks in the 1-3 rounds or 4-5th round that couldn't make the first year. 2005 Starter Quality: Rodgers(1), Collins(2), Poppinga(4) - What a way to set the bar in your drafting career! Poppinga was a nice find in the 4th. Never great, but an ok starter. Contributor: Underwood(4), Coston(5), Montgomery(6), Whittacker(7) - Back-up depth and special teamers. Busts: Terrance Murphy(2) - A bad-luck injury is the main reason he never left the starting gate. 2006 Starter Quality: Hawk(1), Colledge(2), Jennings(2), Spitz(3), Jolly(6) - Hawk was starter quality, but a disappointment at the 5th pick of the draft. Colledge/Spitz were fringe Pro-Bowl guards. Jennings was a great find. Jolly had a couple years at starter quality before the Kool-aid got him. Contributor: Blackmon(4), Moll(5), Culver(6), Tollefson(7) - Blackmon had a long career as a returner and nickel/dime DB - even after the Packers. Busts: Abdul Hodge(3), Corey Rodgers(4) 2007 Starter Quality: Jones(3), Babre(4), Crosby(6) Contributor: Brandon Jackson(2), Corey Hall(6), Desmond Bishop(6), DeShawn Wynn(7) - Some starts out of these guys but overall were under starter quality. Busts: Harrell(1), Rouse(3), David Clowney(5) - Biggest busts in TT's career came here. Rouse was close to contributor, but was more of a tease than anything. 2008 Starter Quality: Nelson(2), Finley(3), Sitton(4), Flynn(7) - Flynn is fringe starter quality, but getting him in the 7th round makes up for it. Nelson and Finley caused MANY groans with the post-draft analysis, but they couldn't be more wrong. Contributor: Pat Lee(2), Jeremy Thompson(4), Breno Giacomini(6), Brett Swain(7). - Lee and Thompson are fringe busts, but did contribute for a while. Busts: Brian Brohm(2) - TT's second biggest bust. At least this was "covered" by drafting Flynn and having Rodgers. 2009 Starter Quality: Raji(1), Matthews(1), Lang(4) Contributor: Brad Jones(7), Wynn(6), Meredith(5) - Jamon Meredith didn't do anything for the Pack, but made a nice career as a backup OG with a number of starts Busts: None. 2010 Starter Quality: Bulaga(1), Burnett(3) Contributor: Neal(2), Quarless(5), Starks(6), Wilson(7), Newhouse(5) - There were a number of starts from these players that I would consider under NFL quality starts. Newhouse did start elsewhere too. Busts: None. 2011 Starter Quality: Cobb(2), House(4) - House just didn't start for us... Contributor: None - This draft had 6 players drafted after the 5th round that didn't contribute or barely contributed. They aren't busts (by my standard), but that is a lot of misses. Busts: Derek Sherrod(1), Alex Green(3) 2012 Starter Quality: Hayward(3), Daniels(4) Contributor: Perry(1) - Nick is fringe, but not quite there... There were another 4 picks in the 4-7th rounds that were minimal contribution to nothing at all. Busts: Jerel Worthy(2) 2013 Starter Quality: Lacy (2), Bakhtiari(4), Tretter (4), Hyde(5), Charles Johnson(7) - Tretter hasn't started much, but is quality when he does. Hyde is our best nickel DB, so good enough. Johnson made it with the Vikings. Contributor: Jones(1), Boyd(5), Palmer(6), Barrington(7) - Jones starts, but not a great contribution for a 1st round pick. Busts: Johnathan Franklin(4) 2014 Starter Quality: Clinton-Dix (1), Adams (2), Linsley(5) - CD and Adams proved it this year. Linsley was the most impressive rookie Contributor: Rodgers(3), Abbrederis(5), Janis(7) - Richard has started and made great plays, but is a far cry from a Jared Cook type TE. Busts: Khyri Thornton(3), Carl Bradford (4) 2015 - Too early to tell: Randall(1), Rollins(2), Montgomery(3) - The jury is really still out here. R&R looked like starter quality their rookie year. Regressed massively this year. Montgomery played enough at RB to show the potential this year. Next year will be a tell-tale for all three. Ryan (4), Hundley(5), Ripkowski(6) - Technically starting, but not sure about quality yet. Ryan made big improvements this year, but still needs to continue. Rip did also and was a major factor down the last half of the season, but still is a FB who can run the ball. I can't count him in the starter bin yet. Hundley looks the part in ST. Nothing else to judge him by at the moment. Busts: None. A couple low picks look like they won't make it, but still not a bust. 2016 - Way too early to tell Kenny Clark (1) and Jason Spriggs(2) already look like starter capable guys. My prediction is that Clark busts out big time in the next two years. Martinez (4) and Lowry (4) both have been contributing in a major way with starter potential. Martinez looks like he could be a good cover ILB with decent instincts. Fackrell(3) and Davis(5) are both enticing players. Fackrell needs to live in the weight room this year. Davis needs to live with Aaron Rodgers. Murphy (6) - Another guy that needs to live in the weight room. Reminds me a bit of Mark Tauscher (doughboy body, smart player). Played ok in ST. Busts: None. All draftees showed something this year and remained on the roster. Murphy was the only one that didn't really contribute this year. From 2005-2010 we have: Starting Quality: 20 total, 3.3 average Contributions: 24 total, 4.0 average Busts: 6 total, 1.2 average From 2011-2014 (looking at recent history): Starting Quality: 12 total, 3.0 average. Contributions: 8 total, 2.0 average Busts: 6 total, 1.5 average So, just looking at this, it doesn't seem that TT is doing that bad on finding starting caliber players, but has really gotten worse at the contributors (fringe starter, solid backups, ST players). Especially bad were the 2011 and 2012 drafts. But 2015 and 2016 have potential to be very good drafts if some of the key players take the necessary improvement steps. But regardless of TT being able to find starting caliber players in the draft, I think there is enough evidence to say that its just not enough. It worked in 2010 (after a string of very good drafts). But plenty of years where it was close, but one major glaring weakness torpedoed the ship. That is where I think Ron Wolf did better by bringing in guys to fill the gaps. (Reggie White, Santana Dotson, Eugene Robinson, Desmond Howard, and Frankie Winters all come to mind from the 1996 SB year). That is one big star (White) and one medium FA sign (Santana) and 3 cast-off pickups that worked well in our system. Robinson was a late training camp trade when Wolf saw a hole at safety. I think that is the approach we need to get back to so that we aren't wasting Rodger's time with the team.

My FA take: TE: Jared Cook. Slam dunk decision. Should be easy to do as he wants to be back. Played great with Rodgers (having a real QB for the first time in his life). Offense looked completely different with him on the field. DB: Berry would be nice, but given our needs, I pass on a safety FA. Signing someone like Trumaine Johnson would be brilliant if they cut Shields. Depending on Hyde's contract, I'd love him back, but not for starter DB money. If they lose Hyde, I think Gunter would be a great replacement for him. Both are smart and instinctive football players with not great speed. OLB: Pass on Peppers. Nick Perry should be resigned. Yes to Elliot because he is an RFA. First round draft pick or another FA should be a target. Dante Jones if he comes cheap, but no tears shed if he takes his bone-headed fouls somewhere else. Pass rush was non-existent last year. Matthews starts great at OLB, but wears down and "disaapears" late in the season. Moving him back to ILB is the wise move at this point. He can still pass rush on third downs or blitzes, but he will be more effective there. OL: I think you need to target Lang or Tretter, but not both. I'd be happy either way. Barclay- lets just move on please? I cringe every time he is in there. RB: Again, Lacy or Michael. Lacy looked better last year, but still not someone to spend a lot of money on. Michael looks fast...very fast. I'd love to see what he can do after one TC and knowing the playbook. If he is still thick headed, move on. LS: Goode - should be a lock again. Cheap and we showed some loyalty to going back to him after his injury.

If DS has the Cardinal's proprietary rating system, we might finally get some good draft picks! Er.. I mean bad DS, bad.

At this point, given what we've seen from Broxton, I don't understand how Szcsur is an upgrade. Even with Jimmy's poor 2016, I feel like this would be a poor deal for the Brewers. I have no idea who Szcsur is, but given we have Broxton, Brinson, Maverick, Clark and Ray in the pipeline at CF (not to mention Taylor and Wren), CF seems to be the last place we need more players. Maybe the guy is a value add, but I still think there are other places to look if we were to trade Jimmy. And I'm guessing we would be trading Jimmy at his lowest point. I think he will have a bounce back year this year given that his BB rate spiked outside of his norms last year.

They aren't going to say, 'Scooter is out of a job and there's no room for him on the roster because he lacks versatility. So what will you give me for him in trade?' +1. There is no real benefit to this Brewers team in doing this except for dire emergencies. He is quite a ways down the backup lists at 1B, SS, 3B and OF. But there is no harm in it either for ST. And at least is shows you are trying something with a player.

how's that work for Guerra with him throwing it nearly every 6th pitch? He did pretty well at Colorado Springs last year. Far better than Lopez.

A difference of opinion on worth? Yes. Hate? No. If we didn't have Villar at 2B right now, I doubt too many people are talking about trading Scooter. But Villar is seen as a better long term fit with the team and given Scooter's lack of versatility there is a desire to trade him for a better fit. But I don't know anyone that hates him.

but it just seems really random when Henson and Plumley play well or horrible Add in the 75 million spent on Dellavadova and Teletovic, I do find it a bit odd that being inconsistent seems to be common theme here. Perhaps Della and Tele were like this previously, but certainly they haven't played as well with the Bucks as they did elsewhere (which both have fairly well established careers). Henson and Plumley are both playing off of last seasons play list (Henson starts good, but falters. Plumley looks like nothing early, but comes on strong late). Any thoughts that the inconsistency is more a coaching issue than a bad GM signing issue?

That is assuming they both started at the same talent level. What if it helped both of them equally, but Ozzie still stunk? PEDs wouldn't make me an MLB player.

I'm going to disagree with the Capers vs. Talent argument. Yes, starting CB being Gunter is not what anyone wants to see. But we know that HHCD and Burnett are greatly talented players, Rollins and Randall showed a lot last year, and our MLB situation is far superior to last year too. Clark looks like someone to watch grow into a player also. Yet, it seems that no one is ever surprised by what we are running. No blitz ever gets home. People are running through massive holes in our zones. And communication on the field is horrible (CB expecting S help and its not there). Those are coaching errors, not player talent errors. Its like everyone knows what to expect and what defensive plays beat it. Having mediocre talent or execution just makes it a bon-fire at that point. We need to clean house on the defensive coaching side.

Except that its The Mayor of Ding Dong City. But it is Monday.

I hadn't included Wilkerson, Burgos or anyone else in my OP because they aren't on the 40-man roster. That could change of course, but I just see it as less likely to happen.

Milone has mainly be a starting pitcher in the bigs, but his stats have some indicators that he would be better off in the BP: Certainly he is much better earlier in games (numbers from last 3 years): [pre]Pitches 1-15 .253 .322 .413 .734 Pitches 16-30 .275 .312 .424 .736 Pitches 31-45 .263 .307 .479 .787 Pitches 46-60 .309 .367 .486 .854 Pitches 61-75 .308 .412 .462 .873[/pre] He also has some LOOGY tendencies (numbers over the last 3 years): [pre]vs. Left .244 .299 .400 .699 vs. Right .280 .331 .460 .792[/pre] Perhaps they really want a lefty starting, but I tend to think he is more of an insurance guy. Go from a mediocre Starter to a quality BP arm/LOOGY? With long man possibilities too? Of course, they could also be looking at this 3.7-4.2 ERA history instead of his 5.71 ERA last year.

@AdamMcCalvy 8s9 seconds ago David Stearns says it's "unlikely ... but not impossible" the Brewers sign another FA reliever after landing Feliz. Possibly translated: We still like Holland, but don't like his option for a 2nd year.

After starting the pitching thread, I figured we could give equal opportunity to the starting position players. Granted, I would expect this to be much less volatile than the starting pitchers. LF: Ryan Braun - 100% chance. The only chance that it isn't Ryan is if he is traded (unlikely at this point) or injured (hopefully not). He is our best offensive bat and a lock. CF: Keon Broxton - 90% chance. The BF world holds its breath to see if the second half of last year was real or a mirage. Keon made a great adjustment and tore the hide off the ball last July+. Broxton's second half gives the Brewers a chance to start slower here with Brinson also. Brinson (10% chance) will be the first OFer up from the minors at any position but it can be delayed past the super 2 status since he isn't needed right away. Captain Kirk would be short term replacement, like it or not. RF: Domingo Santana - 90% chance. Really only injury is his biggest worry. He started off slow (and injured) last year, then put together a nice quiet season coming on late. Not as drastic a turn-around as Broxton, but nice progress. Brinson would be the long term replacement in right also. Captain Kirk would be short term replacement, like it or not. 3B: Travis Shaw - 90% chance. Hand picked to take over 3B. Perez (10% chance) is his only real competitor. But Shaw has more upside and will be given the chance to prove himself. SS: Orlando Arcia - 100% chance. Top prospect will have every chance this year. He still has some offensive adjustments to make to prove he can stay long term as the starter, but its his this year. Villar would be his backup with Dubon's distance footsteps coming. 2B: Jonathon Villar - 100% chance. With his breakout performance last year, Villar will be starting somewhere in the infield this year. And since the announcement has come out that he will move the 2B, the surprise is gone. Only chance for Scooter to make head-way here is injury at 3B, SS or 2B. 1B: Eric Thames - 100% chance. The "big" FA signing this year. No one really knows what to expect out of Thames, but he will get first chance. And second chance and third... In fact, there really isn't anyone to back him up if things do come up kimchee... C: Andrew Susac - 67% chance. Catcher might be the only really interesting ST fight for the position players. Many Pina (25% chance) played more at the MLB level last year, but I'd guess Susac has the better ceiling. Of course, at the catcher position, the backup plays quite a bit compared to other spots (normally). So it wouldn't surprise me to see a 2:1 split at starting either. New comer Jett Bandy (8% chance) has an outside chance, but I would expect him to start at AAA given that he has options and profiles exactly as his predecessor (Maldy).

Such an important part of our baseball team and I would expect it to be very volatile in 2017. I wouldn't be surprising to see 80% (4 of 5) turnover from Game 1 to Game 162 next year. Possibilities in no particular order: Matt Garza - Much discussion has surrounded his "worth" vs. taking up space. With the money due him, I would expect him to at least last 1/2 the year in the rotation. 80% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Junior Guerra - Biggest and most pleasant surprise last year. A lock (100%) to start the year in the rotation. If he continues his performance, he would be a trade target just due to his age alone. But I tend to think he will regress. Zach Davies - Less of a surprise last year, Zach gave just about what I expected. Doesn't blow you away, but is steady. A lock (100%) for the rotation and probably the most likely pitcher to play from Game 1 to 162. Jimmy Nelson - Jimmy is another volatile discussion point for Brewer fans; trade him, cut him, send him to AAA, or give him another chance have all been greatly discussed. Jimmy's control completely disappeared last year and his walk rate spiked. I tend to think he will get another chance to start. 75% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Wily Peralta - Contrary to Jimmy, Wily's control problems align closer to his career norms. Wily looked better after spending some time in purgatory (Colorado Springs). But his peripherals (even in his good year) weren't impressive. I tend to think that his best move would be to the BP. But someone will always look at his FB (95-98MPH) and want him in the rotation. 50% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Chase Anderson - Similar to Wily, Chase had a better second half but people tend to look down on him as his stuff doesn't compare to the desired benchmarks. Nor does he have Davies' control to make it work consistently. 50% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Tommy Millone - A guy brought in for the BP. Could be the long man or short term 6th starter. Only injuries get him in the starting rotation. Taylor Jungmann - So who is Taylor Jungmann? TJ of 2015 or 2016? Somewhere between? This is sounding like a broken record. TJ of 2016 completely lost his control and walked 5.7 BB/9IP. His MiLB career on walks isn't great, but certainly isn't that bad. I'd guess we see him at some point in 2017 starting again, but probably not right away. 22.5% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Jorge Lopez - Similar to TJ, Jorge did the equivalent, but in the minors instead. Certainly, purgatory (CS) didn't help him. But he could've adjusted a bit better. I'd like to see him start at the MLB level this year, but I think you need to move someone out of the way above him first. I don't think he jumps anyone at this point. But he will be neck-and-neck with TJ on who gets called up first. Just depends on who starts better. 22.5% chance of making the rotation out of ST. Josh Hader - I would imagine that Josh is a lock to start at sometime in 2017, but very low probability that he will start the season there. I'm sure they will play the super 2 status game with him. Also, Josh is on target for 150-160 innings this year (30 inning increase from his 126 last year). So it wouldn't surprise me to see him see MLB BP time next year also to limit his innings. 0% chance of making the rotation out of ST. So as I see it now: 1. Guerro 2. Davies 3. Garza 4. Nelson 5. Anderson MLB BP: Peralta, Millone MiLB: Jungmann, Lopez, Hader

There are some "soft" measurements in ST that will be part of the evaluation also. Its not always about the stats. If they gave Nelson some things to work on and he is showing that he is making the adjustments, he will probably get a longer leash too. We probably only see 20% (the games) of everything being evaluated during ST.