CheezWizHed
-
Posts
12,583 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
18
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by CheezWizHed
-
It feels sacrilegious to compare the Cubs to Team Streak. -
Yikes on the charges... At least with RBs, there are generally a few available at the end of TC for a trade. And it normally doesn't take too much to incorporate them into the team.
-
Little Mario can jump!
-
Well, Hall started that year as a starter, so we can remove his -0.2 WAR and I'd guess we'd see less of the Frankie Montas (-0.1) or Joe Ross (+0.5) rather than impacting Rea (+1.1) or Myers (2.6 WAR - who came up a month into the season as an SP replacement).
-
I know I was being more "black and white" in my determination of success on the trade, but the reality is that there is still plenty of gray possibilities... If Ortiz produced multiple 3.0 WAR seasons and Hall had multiple 2.0 WAR (as a reliever), you probably claim that a win. I was trying to make more of a point against the "sum total WAR = WIN" argument rather than being definitive on what I consider a "win". If I gave 5 "win" scenarios it would've muddled my original argument and put the focus on the wrong part. So I chose to be succinct over thorough. you’re assessing how much you’re able to improve each roster spot over what you would’ve had there otherwise But getting multiple players that are 2.0 WAR or less in a trade (especially when we are giving up a high-end player) really can't be the goal. You can get those types of players with lesser trades and/or waiver pickups. If we didn't make the Burnes trade, it isn't automatic that our 3B that year would've been a 0 WAR player.
-
I'd want to tackle the X WAR vs Y WAR evaluation of a trade. There are very limited numbers of 4+ WAR players where having a 2 WAR player is much easier to find (or even have a replacement level player have a career year at 2 WAR). So I'm not a fan of simply adding up the WAR gained vs the WAR lost to declare a victor in the trade. Let's use the numbers from the Burnes trade: Corbin had 3.9 bWAR the one year with Baltimore Joey had 2.8, 0.3, and 0.4 (so far this year) + future years control Hall had -0.2, 0.6 and 0.6 (so far this year) + future years control The fallacy of saying that we gave up 3.9 WAR, but gained 4.6 WAR is that that 4.6 WAR was acquired with 2 spots on the roster over 4.5 years of time; thus a very low WAR/year/roster spot. If your goal is to fill a roster with cheap players so that you are simply "competitive" and not contending (i.e. the Selig era), then this trade is a win. But if you really want to contend for a WS, we need each roster spot to be filled with the highest WAR players possible. As of now, I say this trade was a bust. Unless one of Ortiz or Hall exceeds the WAR we gave up with Corbin in a single season, I think it remains that way. It is hard to predict a butterfly effect of the changes, but I'd guess we would be better off if we stayed with Corbin for that one year and get the comp pick instead.
-
This is why I don't like using English because you can make it say anything you want it to say. 😂 Metrics certainly need to be handled correctly. And they tend to be tricker to understand because people don't like math. But for the people that do understand them, it is pretty easy to refute someone abusing it. When you have something that models actual results well (not all metrics do), they are useful for comparing apples-to-apples for a player's full performance and not just biased to the ones a scout sees/remembers. And I agree with others that it is more about predicting probable outcomes and not ensuring them. There are still small sample issues when looking at a 5 or 7 game series and intangibles that metrics can't measure (i.e. the whole is more than the sum of the parts).
-
I'd certainly take a WS victory instead, but continually frustrating the Cubs is a nice consolation prize.
-
Agreed. I think people are getting the FA extensions mixed with the pre-arby extensions. As long as you are comfortable that the player in question is a MLB talent (and not someone you won't go to arbitration for), the extensions are really pretty low risk: Peralta's extension was a surprise to everyone... but after that initial shock, I think it was obvious that it would be a huge benefit for the Brewers Chourios was again a shock... but looking like a steal. Ashby's might be closer to just "fair", but certainly not a bad deal. Pratt: I did an analysis that showed that the break even on that deal with producing like Ortiz (2 WAR). I've said it before and I'll keep preaching it... it isn't a "YES" or "NO" on extensions, but "How Much". If you sign a good player to a good deal, it is ALWAYS a benefit to the team. Good players on good deals are great trade bait (Thank you Freddie!).
-
Perkins is a well-known entity and I'm sure he will do better offensively than now (very consistent with a 650 OPS and low 80s OPS+ for 3 years), but why wouldn't Lara be his one-for-one replacement? Personally, I could seem them pair Lara and Mitchell pretty easily in CF.
-
True. I'm thinking: Williams in June - post Super 2 date Cooper around the ASB Lara between the ASB and Sept. I think CF has a longer leash, but Perkins really hasn't done much the last two years offensively.
-
I think Ortiz can still be optioned to the minors, so you could stash him there as an emergency backup if Cooper struggles too.
-
I agree that Williams is probably the first one up with Rengifo DFA being the easy option. But neither Ortiz or Mitchell/Perkins should be too comfortable in their positions. Perkins is in his last pre-arby year, so I doubt he has much of a future with the club. Lara (at worst) is a close match (switch hitter, good defense) although Perkins is better as a RHB and Lara as LHB, but both are pretty close. If Lara continues to tear the cover off the ball and Mitchell isn't, it wouldn't surprise me to see Lara replace Perkins and tag-team with Mitchell. I think Ortiz has until the ASB to turn it around. If Cooper continues the tear he is on at AAA, I'd expect Ortiz traded and Pratt come up. Having three rookies in the lineup isn't ideal, but neither is having three black holes at the plate. You still have Hamilton at SS/3B to make a three-way shuffle at the two positions to mitigate some of the growing pains. In the OF, you have Mitchell and Chourio at CF if Lara struggles to adjust. So it isn't like they don't have backup options and honestly... it doesn't feel like the rookies could be worse. Ortiz: 196/282/245 - 51 OPS+ Rengifo: 199/262/257 - 47 OPS+ Perkins: 105/203/158 - 4 OPS+
-
Long Term is Patrick a Starter or reliever?
CheezWizHed replied to TwinsBrewersWorldSeries's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This. I've been a big proponent of Patrick starting last year, but the more I see of him the more I understand why the Brewers are using him the way they are. As a starter, he is probably more of a 4 or 5 (yes, I know his stats will say otherwise but that is mostly because the Brewers are limiting his exposure). His best ability for the team is his flexibility. Spot starts when needed, multiple relief innings to backup a short start, and even some high leverage single innings. Not many guys can handle that variety mentally. Sproat clearly has higher potential as a starter... just got to get him over that 80 pitch hump. Henderson, Gasser, and Crow are pretty similar stuff-wise to Patrick. Crow has an elite CB that might distinguish him a bit though. Likewise with Henderson and his change. And lefties (Gasser) always get extra opportunities. I thought Drohan was going to be a AAAA SP or BP guy... now I'm not so sure. Oddly, it is probably Patrick's flexibility that works against him being a consistent starter. -
again?
-
Brandan Sorsby might declare for the Supplemental Draft so I was poking around his draft profile and noticed that (at least one publication) listed Levis, Ridder, and Pratt as three QB comps. There would be some headwinds against the Packers picking him: normally avoiding the supplemental draft already paying Taylor (but we saw that didn't help Brandon) the gambling conspiracy that might force Sorsby into the draft But given that the Packers picked up (and released) Ridder and drafted Pratt, it got me wondering if they might take a late round flyer on him. We have duplicate 4th and 6th round picks in next years draft (plus 4 expected Comp picks). I see some chatter about him going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds...but that would've been if he came out for the normal draft. The gambling conspiracy is going to make people hesitate. I would expect somewhere in the 4th or after.
-
At a Brewer game, no need to chant anything about the Bears. Ill fans chanting about the Packers at a Brewers/Cubs game means only one thing...
-
Wouldn't surprise me if it was an MLB demotion handover. Seeing his rotation-mates getting more opportunities than he is...and after he finally had a measure of success at the MLB level. But the reality is that he is probably a AAAA or BP pitcher anyway.
-
I will continue to watch all my games on the same streaming service... NFL+. If I can't watch the game on the streaming services/OTA that I have... I just watch it in replay. Living in MN, I've gotten used to not having it live.
-
Any trade of Giannis is going to require a contract extension, so the only difference is that Bane's contract was complete while Giannis' just needs some lip service.
-
It would seem like the evidence says that the $1M was the insurance policy. In retrospect, it stinks, but so does not having a kicker.
-
Also a SW engineer here...and I did! 😉
-
You really do need an engineer (which I am). 😉 Use landscape fabric to keep the soil in the pot and let the water drain through. Honestly, skipping the soil and using rocks will probably work too. The sound hitting the rocks at the top will need to transfer through multiple interfaces (rock to rock, rock to pot, pot to roof) that will insulate the sound sufficiently.
-
I like @valpocrewsader's suggestion. But for variety, I'll go the other direction... you could try using a white noise generator in your bedroom to deaden external noises. You can get a phone app for it to be very simple. YouTube has lots of 24hr sleep sounds "videos".
