CheezWizHed

I'll assume that your definition of a win is your prediction or better. So, I'll pick Regnifo's 2 hits. Over 5 games, he should get around 17ABs (looking at his current average/game). At a 200 BA, that is about 3.5 hits. So as much as hope that Cooper replaces him soon, that seems like the easiest one to reach since he statistically is doing above that already. Everyone else would have to exceed their typical averages per five games to get to your prediction of their stat. Side note: I didn't realize how horrible Mitchell has been on the basepaths this year. 6 SBs and 5 CS. Woof!

Interesting challenge. Hopefully Wild Bill scoffs at how much you "underestimated" him! 😉

Really great news! Free Luis Lara!

His BA/OPS/OPS+/WAR (pick one) is the reason his time in MKE is limited. They can send Blake to AAA if they want the depth. Of course, 40 man spots might be limited too. Regardless, he hits arbitration next year and we weren't going to arby with him (maybe Arbys...).

Looks like they really leaned into an availability laden incentive setup, which makes sense for us. Also it could easily be a 2 year contract... or a 4 year contract for not much more than Romeo Doubs. Frankly, I think both Reed and Watson were great deals for the Packers.

If you compare this current extension (4 years, $111M) to other WRs, that makes perfect sense. But both of you (and a couple of sports writers) included the full 5 years with only what he is owed this year. Sure, cash flow is important when you are running a business, but it doesn't make sense when comparing the cost of players. Quoting 5 years $116M and comparing it to current signings doesn't say much. It cost the Packers $121M total to employ Watson for 5 years; regardless of whether we paid part of it in 2025 My point is that if you want to compare Watson's cost to other WR, you should use 4/$111M or 5/$121M. Using 5/$116M doesn't tell the total cost of compensation.

I have confidence that Towns will disappear under pressure per usual.

But this was my point. It is 5 years $121M if you want to compare to other WR signings.

Good thing I addressed that in the first line of the blog. 😉

To be fair... no one cares if you win the offseason. Still have to make it count on the field. Yeah, I'm kind of there too. He has really stunk the last few years, but it FINALLY looks like he has turned recruiting around a bit. I don't want to lose that momentum now. But I also don't want to be thinking in three years that he still stinks.

It just "looks" weird to make it look like is so discounted this year by saying the two deals combined is for 5 years $116M. This year cost us $11M... the cap hit is lower, but he was still paid for it. I look at it more as 5 years $121M. That makes it a better apples to apples comparison with other signings.

They aren't mutually exclusive... Maybe I'm missing something? You, @LouisEly, and some writer out on Acme Packing company are focusing on this $5.5-6M number, but the first extension was $11M base with up to $13M with incentives. Did part of the signing bonus get counted last year?

Watson's last extension was about $13M.

Correct. If he flounders, we are no worse than where we are now. If he succeeds, we improve for free. We have 2 months until the trade deadline to find out if he can succeed.

Joey Ortiz says "Hi!" .193 .290 .244 .534 Rengifro says, "Don't forget about me!" .204 .278 .253 .531 People aren't calling for Pratt because we expect him to come in and light the league on fire.. it's because the bar is already pretty low. Calling up Pratt today and sending Joey to AAA could be done today, could be done for "free" (no trades, no service time impacts, no DFAing a player), and really has very little downside.

That was my first impression too when I looked at his stats. But there has to be something more to it for him to get defensive ROY and a 2x ProBowler. If we drafted someone and I guaranteed he'd win DROY and Pro Bowl twice in his first two seasons, you'd agree that it was a win for a first round pick. That is how I valued him at a 1st rounder.

I think we missed Shane's pitch count from Monday as a starter.

I hope the PA system plays the theme to Ghostbusters between innings as he is warming up.

I find it mildly interesting that Burton has been getting reps with the #1s at RG and LG... but maybe more interesting is that he isn't getting any reps at C. John Williams is getting the reps there. So is it a case of: They are already comfortable with Burton at C so they don't feel the need to have him work in OTAs there? They are using the OTAs more for experiment time - vetting out Burton at guard and Williams at C? Or would that reflect the actual roles they see for Williams (C) and Burton (G)? I see that Lloyd went to a specialist to vet out his injury problems - similar to Watkins and Stokes. That makes me wonder why this isn't "standard procedure" for the team? Why wait until they continually have injury issues. I'd assume anyone could benefit from knowing where they have core and leg weaknesses to shore up.

Last year this time, we hoped Miz could gain his control to reach his TOR ceiling, and we had no idea who Harrison was. Big change in a year! Adding these two with our young core of Chourio and Turang and our upcoming prospects is pretty exciting!

Verse was the D-ROY and 2x ProBowler (which may or may not mean much) and he is one a rookie contract for 3 more years. I think it is easy to say a trade for him alone would be worth a 1st round draft pick.

I suspect they will wait until TC to make an RB move unless it is very obvious that Jacobs won't be part of the team. RBs are fairly cheap to get in trade and several will be available at the end of TC for cuts/trades.

As we come up on the Super 2 threshold, we should start seeing some AAA promotions. It is time to free Luis Lara. Centerfield has been manned by Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, and now Jackson Chourio. Chourio's presence in CF has been a necessity to increase the offensive production due to poor production at SS, 3B, RF and CF. Garrett Mitchell has been pretty average with his bat - though mostly due to his high walk rate. And brings a positive WAR - though mostly due to his defense. There are some warning flags to be wary of (high BABIP and K rates) and the Brewers are also being cautious in how much he plays to keep him healthy. Blake Perkins made me realize the OPS+ can actually go negative (-9). and really has been unplayable aside for a defensive replacement. Blake is also in his final year of pre-arbitration. As a career 624 OPS / 74 OPS+ batter, I don't see the Brewers holding on to him after this year. Sal Frelick has also been having a cold, cold start on offense. While he solely plays RF, this lack of production is one reason the Brewers are pushing Bauers out to LF and Chourio in CF. I think all of us expect Sal to bounce back, the reality is that he only has one year above average (111 OPS+ last year), so his offensive reality might be lower also. So here we loop back to Lara. Luis has been tearing up AAA this year but is not an offensive juggernaut. His minor league career OPS has been 733 even while he is scorching the highest minor league level to a tune of 962 at the tender age of 21. Sal Frelick by comparison has an 844 OPS average in the minors while competing at a similarly young age (+1 year older at each level). So why am I calling for Lara to come up? At worst, he is upgrading the 2026 Blake Perkins back to the 2024 Black Perkins: excellent defense with a 650 OPS. Let Blake go back to AAA and see if he can figure out what is wrong with his bat. At best, Lara offensive outburst comes from a real improvement found this offseason. Perhaps he brings a 700-800 OPS with excellent defense to our CF and give the Brewers a chance to go Bauers-Lara-Chourio across the OF while giving Frelick a few days off to figure things out.

Maybe they didn't have the turn-over, but you had the potential every year. Everyone is a 1 year Free Agent. If you can bring back your team, more power to you.