CheezWizHed

The reality is that the contract doesn't change the situation in the least. The Brewers were ALWAYS going to setup their defense to have the best defensive SS at SS. They were both going to compete to see who plays SS for several years anyway (with or without this contract). Made being the higher "rank" wasn't going to gift him the SS position, just like Pratt's contract doesn't gift it to him. If the Brewers had done this in the dark and fully surprised Made and his agent... maybe that might bring some questions. But I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have spoken to Made's agent about a contract and also informed them about Pratt's. Who knows... maybe Made will be signing his own contract soon. On the other hand, Joey Ortiz might not feel all that comfortable... (nor should he).

In a weird twist, CB Bucknor challenged his own call behind the plate. Alas, it came back as a "strike".

I hope not, because that would mean only one of them is really any good!

Willllllson booked it off the field like his pants were on fire. I don't think anyone knew Hamilton was hurt until Willson was barking from the dugout.

Dude clearly spent too much time with the Cardinals. I wonder if the brothers had a chat last night.

The check is in the mail! Not bad for someone that almost didn't submit a bracket! 😂

Our pitching depth always seems deeper than it really is. I think we need all of it to get through the season. We needed 14 different starters (not including "openers") to make it through last year. Plus several "BP games".

I posted this in another thread, but want to highlight how we often see a large pile of money being given to an unproven player (when we can’t spend money on FAs) and struggle to see the risk/benefit the team is actually taking. Plus, the CBA changes will most likely only make this deal look better in the long run. ######################################################################## I was curious how Pratt's extension might compare to his theoretical path through arbitration. So I compiled a list of shortstops that have been in arbitration over the past 5 years (AI technically, so I'm sure I've missed a few players, but have enough of a sample to be in the ballpark). I calculated their Average WAR/year (this I did by hand) so I could put them in MIN, MID, and MAX tiers. 0-2 WAR=MIN, 2.1-4 = MID, 4.1+=MAX. So that gives me a potential list of salaries for Pratt if he takes one of those three paths. For the "normal" path, I assumed he would be in AAA this year and gave him a max AAA salary. Then for the FA year, I dumped what was left of the $50.75M "budget" (his contract amount) to see how good of a deal this would be. I used a 5% inflation for all numbers (salary and cost of WAR) to project out for 7 years. So, for today's FA cost of $8M/WAR, I used about $11.4M. Year Min Mid Max AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 1 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 2 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 3 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 Arb 1 $ 3,707,294 $ 4,791,120 $ 10,924,362 Arb 2 $ 5,661,106 $ 11,103,650 $ 23,383,026 Arb 3 $ 6,834,488 $ 13,484,712 $ 28,142,008 FA 1 $ 30,691,878 $ 17,515,283 $ (15,554,631) WAR 2.7 1.6 -1.4 1. Bust: Brewers take on all the risk if Cooper doesn’t play well enough to even make arbitration (without the contract). 2. Min: Cooper is producing as a 0-2 WAR/year player, so it would be the equivalent of playing Joey Ortiz over $30M for one season – 2.7 WAR cost. Brewer failure for this outcome. 3. Mid: Cooper is producing 2-4 WAR/year (Willy Adames), so it would be equivalent to playing a FA SS $17.5M/year – 1.6 WAR cost. Adames got far more than that two years ago. Though that isn’t our normal mode of operation, we still find value. 4. Max: Cooper producing 4+WAR/year means that we actually pay $15.5M less through arbitration than the equivalent SS that is going through arbitration. And the one FA year is “free”. The next two option years are almost certainly used here too. I see Cooper’s floor to be a “Min” player given his defensive capabilities, so there really isn’t a huge risk for Brewers with a lot of upside possibilities.

Well, we invested in the safety salad tongs and pack backup pillows for every player when traveling... not having them play baseball is the next logical step in keeping them injury free!

No, he was hit in a WBC game for Venezuela. But he played in the WBC and several ST games before mentioning that his hand hurt. Possibly aggravating it in an ST game. But someone else made the point above... is there any more risk in getting hit in ST vs the WBC? Most of the players came back to ST with fewer ABs than the players that stayed. Players that play sports will get hurt at sometime. At least he didn't hurt himself celebrating...

Harrison reminds me a lot of Chris Capuano, but he throws harder. Hopefully, he can learn Chris' pickoff move. But two nice games in a row for him. Looks like a keeper. How in the world did we get him for Durbin? Sproat reminds me of a right-handed Aaron Ashby. Everything almost moves too much to be really effective long-term. Hopefully, he can figure it out, but I'm guessing he is the first one down when Priester comes back. Still, two nice pickups in the offseason.

The conversation started with your comment about Watson's, Reed's, and Wick's trade values. 2nd, 2nd, and 4th. I offered a few trades that I thought were comparable for Watson with Reed and Wicks being lower value. You responded: So, unless you happen to throw random facts into your posts... this was about valuing Watson as a 2nd-rounder (or Reed or Wicks if you prefer).. Yes, I read your posts... I'm hoping you did.

Well, that was an odd double play...

It's been Collins so far this year, but I wonder who will be the better career - Collins or Durbin?

With two outs, I'm shocked Turang didn't score on a double. He must not have gotten much of a jump or he was tired from the steal attempts...

Upping inflation to 5% makes a big difference. Not only the salaries, but the $/WAR value too. Year Min Mid Max AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 1 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 2 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 3 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 Arb 1 $ 3,707,294 $ 4,791,120 $ 10,924,362 Arb 2 $ 5,661,106 $ 11,103,650 $ 23,383,026 Arb 3 $ 6,834,488 $ 13,484,712 $ 28,142,008 FA 1 $ 30,691,878 $ 17,515,283 $ (15,554,631) WAR 2.7 1.6 -1.4 I suppose one could also assume that the new deal will also impact salaries upward, lessening the risk.

I was curious how Pratt's extension might compare to his theoretical path through arbitration. So I compiled a list of shortstops that have been in arbitration over the past 5 years (AI technically, so I'm sure I've missed a few players, but have enough of a sample to be in the ballpark). I calculated their Average WAR/year (this I did by hand) so I could put them in MIN, MID, and MAX tiers. 0-2 WAR=MIN, 2.1-4 = MID, 4.1+=MAX. So that gives me a potential list of salaries for Pratt if he takes one of those three paths. For the "normal" path, I assumed he would be in AAA this year and gave him a max AAA salary. Then for the FA year, I dumped what was left of the $50.75M "budget" (his contract amount) to see how good of a deal this would be. I used a 2% inflation for all numbers (salary and cost of WAR) to project out for 7 years. So, for today's FA cost of $8M/WAR, I used about $9.2M. Year Min Mid Max Cooper MLB AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 6,343,750 1 $ 839,041 $ 839,041 $ 839,041 $ 6,343,750 2 $ 1,226,831 $ 1,226,831 $ 1,226,831 $ 6,343,750 3 $ 1,458,906 $ 1,458,906 $ 1,458,906 $ 6,343,750 Arb 1 $ 3,301,418 $ 4,266,587 $ 9,728,359 $ 6,343,750 Arb 2 $ 4,897,288 $ 9,605,503 $ 20,228,099 $ 6,343,750 Arb 3 $ 5,743,428 $ 11,332,009 $ 23,649,411 $ 6,343,750 FA 1 $ 33,183,087 $ 21,921,122 $ (6,480,647) $ 6,343,750 WAR 3.6 2.4 -0.7 So there are 4 main outcomes: Total Bust: Cooper doesn't even make it to Arbitration. This obviously is the worst-case scenario, but Cooper's defense keeps his floor high, so this is probably unlikely. But a Brewer Failure if that happens. Min player: Here we are holding on to a SS that averages 0-2.0 WAR/year, and we chose to give him $33M in FA and hope he makes 3.6 WAR that year. This would be Joey Ortiz. Another Brewer Failure. Mid Player: Now we have a SS that is giving us 2-4WAR/year. A one-year contract for $22M means we expect 2.4 WAR. This would be like signing Willy Adames for one more year. This feels like a break-even point, so I'll count this as a Brewer WIN. Max Player: Clearly, what everyone is hoping for. The script flips a bit in this row and the Brewers have actually saved $6.5M through arbitration and get a FA year for "free". You have a 4+ WAR SS (like Gunnar Henderson) and saved money in the meantime. Brewer victory. So what is the verdict? I'm pretty sure the Brewers are confident that Cooper won't be a bust (as am I). Being a max player is possible... but that one seems unlikely (though I'll bet on the MAX over being a Bust). So if the most likely outcomes are Min or Mid for Cooper, it seems like a pretty good contract for Cooper and just "ok" for the Brewers. If Cooper is a high defensive SS with a light stick (his floor IMO), that is a clear win for Cooper. If he is average, he is going to be paid just a hair less than the market rate for his FA year. Not much of a risk on his part. Caveat: I'm not sure if 2% is a great MLB inflation number (probably not). If salaries grow more than that, the trend will make the Brewer's decision look better in all outcomes.

If you weren't confusing FA $$ and trade value, why were your examples about FA $$? People have different values in FA than in trades. Watson keeps getting injured, so that pretty well balances him with Picken's issues. Pickens still outperformed him on the field. Adams' first trade is laughable to compare with Watson. You want to compare the best WR in the league with multiple ProBowls to a player that hasn't topped 700 yds receiving or played every game in a season yet? Adams put up 1500+ yards the season we traded him. Watson has 2200 yards in his career. Even last year Adams had more yards in the season than Watson has ever put up. Claypool is closer, but he still outperformed Watson before the trade (back-to-back seasons of 800+ yards) and had 2 years left on his rookie contract.

Did you know that the Southern League's average BA last year was .230? And that Cooper was 20 in a league where the average age was 23.8. Three years out of High School, he was an above average hitter at AA - typically seen as one of the harder "jumps" to make. Stats matter, but so does context. I still have concerns about his offensive potential, but obviously the Brewers have less concern.

That would be something if Doc posted here...

After the first weekend, I was last in my work bracket. Now I need AZ to beat UCONN to win the bracket... sorry Big10. I cheer against you this weekend. (Not that I have any love for ILL or MI anyway...)

Hooray! You've been mediocre for a very long time!

Since Badoo is on the 60 day DL, Chourio most likely gets back before Badoo is healthy anyway. It is likely that Matos is simply released (or traded for cash to someone else).... unless he always goes 6 for 12 with a HR against the Cubs. Then he will become local legend!