I posted this in another thread, but want to highlight how we often see a large pile of money being given to an unproven player (when we can’t spend money on FAs) and struggle to see the risk/benefit the team is actually taking. Plus, the CBA changes will most likely only make this deal look better in the long run.
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I was curious how Pratt's extension might compare to his theoretical path through arbitration. So I compiled a list of shortstops that have been in arbitration over the past 5 years (AI technically, so I'm sure I've missed a few players, but have enough of a sample to be in the ballpark). I calculated their Average WAR/year (this I did by hand) so I could put them in MIN, MID, and MAX tiers. 0-2 WAR=MIN, 2.1-4 = MID, 4.1+=MAX.
So that gives me a potential list of salaries for Pratt if he takes one of those three paths. For the "normal" path, I assumed he would be in AAA this year and gave him a max AAA salary. Then for the FA year, I dumped what was left of the $50.75M "budget" (his contract amount) to see how good of a deal this would be.
I used a 5% inflation for all numbers (salary and cost of WAR) to project out for 7 years. So, for today's FA cost of $8M/WAR, I used about $11.4M.
Year
Min
Mid
Max
AAA
$ 100,000
$ 100,000
$ 100,000
1
$ 863,718
$ 863,718
$ 863,718
2
$ 1,300,059
$ 1,300,059
$ 1,300,059
3
$ 1,591,457
$ 1,591,457
$ 1,591,457
Arb 1
$ 3,707,294
$ 4,791,120
$ 10,924,362
Arb 2
$ 5,661,106
$ 11,103,650
$ 23,383,026
Arb 3
$ 6,834,488
$ 13,484,712
$ 28,142,008
FA 1
$ 30,691,878
$ 17,515,283
$ (15,554,631)
WAR
2.7
1.6
-1.4
1. Bust: Brewers take on all the risk if Cooper doesn’t play well enough to even make arbitration (without the contract).
2. Min: Cooper is producing as a 0-2 WAR/year player, so it would be the equivalent of playing Joey Ortiz over $30M for one season – 2.7 WAR cost. Brewer failure for this outcome.
3. Mid: Cooper is producing 2-4 WAR/year (Willy Adames), so it would be equivalent to playing a FA SS $17.5M/year – 1.6 WAR cost. Adames got far more than that two years ago. Though that isn’t our normal mode of operation, we still find value.
4. Max: Cooper producing 4+WAR/year means that we actually pay $15.5M less through arbitration than the equivalent SS that is going through arbitration. And the one FA year is “free”. The next two option years are almost certainly used here too.
I see Cooper’s floor to be a “Min” player given his defensive capabilities, so there really isn’t a huge risk for Brewers with a lot of upside possibilities.