biedergb

All valid point - prospects are just that - they are not known quantities and all is prospective predictions. But on the individual basis it is so difficult to predict, so taking the bigger picture of a large group, and particularly a deep pool like what Milwaukee has now, is how you hedge. If our division title last year was based upon Tyler Black's success (rather than Chourio), or our playoff chances in 2026/2027 are based upon Luke Adams progression then we are back in 1990s Brewers baseball (where the top 3-5 prospects HAVE to make it). But for example at 1B/3B alone we have Adams, Wilken, Bitonti, Baez, and a bevvy of 1b (Black, Burke, EMJ) or ss (Pratt, Made, Pena, Quintana) that could also fill in those roles in the next few seasons. And this team has done reasonably well in getting and developing those players. Our 2022 MLB Pipeline top 10 list had in order: Frelick, Wiemer, Ashby, Mitchell, Turang, Quero, Black, Small, H. Perez, and Chourio. If you told me we would have one likely All Star, 3 MLB regular players with solid traits, one pitcher who can succeed as a SP or RP, and a solid prospect who still could be a future MLB star, I'd take it. Now if that SP/RP had to be Small, then we struck out, but having Ashby turn out as decent is OK. If that star had to be Frelick or Weimer we would be struggling, but having Chourio become the face of the franchise makes it better. The fact we didn't need to Hedbert Perez and Joey Wiemer become our OF, but now have Chourio, Mitchell and Frelick in OF gives the team that benefit. So it is a gamble, but having multiple chips makes the gamble a little easier. And I do love the depth there is right now, and we know only a handful will fulfill their promises, but I will take it.

Thanks @Joseph Zarrand @Spencer Michaelis. 12+ hours of brewers minor league talk, amazing. Thanks for answering all those questions too. What a golden age of Brewers baseball with a competitive MLB club, and very good player acquisition and player development- at all levels. This got me so pumped up for the milb season - looking forward to watching the games and sharing some spring and summer evenings with many of you (Jospeh, Daniel, wiguy as regulars, among many other intermittent posters like me). Looking forward to the 2025 season!

Seeing that list made me go back to the list of 1st rounder the Brewers have had, and it is striking how bad the drafting was in the 1990s, which is why the team was not relevant from 1993 until the late 2000s. But also the drafts (particularly the top few rounds) from 2008 - 2012 were pretty barren too considering multiple first round picks in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012, and the ones that did have success (Lawrie, Odorizzi, Kh. Davis, Haniger) did so with other organizations. Of the picks during that time Jimmy Nelson, Mike Fiers and Brent Suter are the only ones who made a significant mark with the organization, with Gennett, T. Taylor and T. Thornburg as other of note. Recently the 2017 and 2019 drafts are barren, but 2014 (Woodruff), 2016 (Burnes), 2018 (Turang, Ashby, Rasmussen), 2020 (Mitchell), 2021 (Frelick) have produced players who have played a role in the teams 2021-2024 success mostly directly (or Rasmussen indirectly by netting us Adames).

Missed that article, do you have a link, or list of the names? I assume these are just names, and not necessarily highly ranked players. And now I'm just lazy - does anyone recall how many additional signings we made last year after the January date? Finally - we should be in line to try to sign a prospect or two who get left out by the Dodgers or Padres once one of them finalize the Sasaki signing, assuming we don't trade some money (and presumable get a player in return)

But can't a just turned 17 year old grow? I mean if he goes from 5-11 to 6-1 there is some potential upside right? I mean he is pretty solidly built already, but yeah if he hits 94 mph at that age I am intrigued. Both him and 6-2 Ramirez Looking out for more names and signings over the next few days. And would love to see a former Dodger or Padre who flips to Brew Crew as they all wait on Sasaki.

I will say he was one of two IFA signings from that class that appear on this lis - Reminton Batista is the other one. Also, Severino may be turning it around, but he lags behind a couple other top hitters from that same '22 IFA class, namely Lara and Baez who both were in A ball for the whole season (Lara in high A, Baez in low A with AFL stint). And he is ahead of Johan Barrios at this time point, who spent the whole season in the Complex and looked better but not as good as Severino. I will definitely be watching him (more closely than Cam Devanney lol)

I overlooked Devanney in my assessment, I guess I didn’t follow him as much. Good for him. And bad for,the brew crew as Clarke never panned out.

He is so high on Yophery for the past two years, and I hope Aram is right. Could be an exciting multi-tool player in the next few years and kept the Latin pipeline going.

This is an interesting block of trades. First having the 2023 trade deadline and 2023/2024 offseason trades makes it more interesting by definition. In the first piece, it was a lot of tinkering around the edges deals with three clear wins for the Brewers (not necessarily “winning the trade” but helping to build a winning team!), in trading Renfroe (addition by subtraction), Wong (had younger defensive minded prospects coming up) and Ruiz (surplus of fast and defensively oriented OFs), to get Pegeuro, Payamps and Megill (key pieces of very good bullpens in ‘23 and ‘24) and some guy named Contreras. And I will grant the Erceg deal as purely a good faith move for the player which does help a lot in recruiting the minor league or lower tier FAs. This second block has some good or meh trades, but the end result was acquiring a bunch of pieces who did not necessarily help a lot because of injury/ineffectiveness (ie T. Clarke) or just were OK (ie Canha, Bauers, Dunn). Obviously the jury is out on them but none really add the team “better”. Santana helped solidify the offense and 1B and Hudson was a stud last year. The biggest win so far was Ortiz. However, other side of the ledger has a lot of young prospects who may or may not or pan out. Way too early to tell if they are the next Will Inman/Luis Ortiz/Demi Orimoloye/Brett Phillips (overvalued by me and probably other fans), or the next Lorenzo Cain/Reese Olson (traded prospects who performed well in the bigs and would have been nice in the Brewers during their prime). I still highly of Avila, and didn’t realize Severino had such a nice season, while Moore /Mendez had bounce back seasons, and Chambers never threw a pitch for the Brewers. So for the most part this looks like a lot of so-so for the Brewers, and some future prospects that could be future missing parts. And this then doesn’t even touch on Burnes - it’s always hard to lose a star, and the gains are decent since he was going to leave anyway (the aforementioned Ortiz, along with wild cards in Hall [almost literally] and the draft pick of Burke). The end result of these 26 trades was helping to keep the momentum of division leaders (and two years of division champions), so I will take it, as you have to give to get - and overall the gets (mainly key contributors in Contreras, Megill, Peguero, Payamps, Ortiz, Hudson) seem to have more value than the gives (only 1 season of Burnes, and several young prospects who may or may not make the big show in Mendez, Severino, Avina, Chambers). Look forward to the last installment but so far I’d say I’ll take it, but still hoping for more solid to great moves from the front office moving forward.

The dominos are starting to fall, as it is almost a certainty that LA signs Sasaki. The Dodgers IFA prospective signees will be available for others to have. Looks like the Pirates have started first (or at least first reported that I have seen so far): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/pirates-to-sign-dodgers-committed-intl-prospect-darell-morel.html

I hear you. I think that since we don't see often is the Brewers signing the young guys to extensions - Peralta, Ashby and Chourio are the exceptions - nor spend in FA, then the Brewers are perceived as cheap. I am sure they would like to do that for a lot of players - by signing to an extension, rather than agreeing in arbitration, you don't upset the cart too much by setting a single year arbitration number (and therefore set a new precedent), AND you can lock up core players, who could still be valuable as trade pieces later. However, it takes two to tango, and players are also just less willing to sign an extension and give up that first year or two of FA. This arbitration process highlights exactly why - why would I give a potential discount for only 1-2 years of FA when a lot can happen (regression, injury), rather then go through arbitration years and then run for the riches of New York/Chicago/LA/bigger market as soon as I can. So the "Attanasio is Cheap" doesn't fly, while he may not break the bank on every young talent we have, I'm sure most of them don't want to sign extensions but rather get their real salary in free agency as soon as possible. It would still be fun to see them occasionally "break the bank" for a few young players. I think the Yelich extension was an attempt to do that, however, unfortunately that has hurt the team financially (in flexibility), and I know they just did it with Chourio. If we could add another player or 2 (like Contreras, and/or a Mitchell/Ortiz/Turang for example) on longer term contrast then it would really allow a core group of players to be set to play together for several years. Would be nice for us fans. But it takes both sides to agree, and the high end young player like Contreras do not get true market value in those arbitration years, and many feel they deserve to get those 9-figure contracts once eligible, so the dance continues. At least we have Chourio for the next what 8 years?

1)Fast riser(s) - Bitonti sounds like an option- starts at low A but moves up; pitcher I think TSmith or DeBerry 2)Out of no where - I will go with Holobetz and D Sanchez as pitchers, and Tyler Rodriguez or Yannic Walter 3)Rise into consensus top 100 prospect - Payne, Bitonti 4)Comeback Player (re-establish lost prospect status or return from injury) - Lara 5)Struggles/Disappointment (feel free to skip if you worry about jinxing anyone) - no one I hope, but I will say someone like Boeve and/or Peña just because expectations are so high. But likely this will be a injury or struggle we can’t predict 6)Individual/team predictions- Victor Estevez leads his team to the playoffs again.

I was actually going to go to the 'way back' machine and call out Michael "Mitch" Franke, but most posters may not even remember him - nor should they. Having German parents, every German signing is stored and filed away in my brain. So Paul Hoff and Yannic Walter have lifelong fans here with me https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=franke001mic

Yeah how could you forget Jolon Zhao 😉😂

As indicated in the article he could be a swingman/back of the rotation starter. But we picked a pitcher in the Rule V draft for that Bryce Wilson role. But let's say Connor Thomas does not perform well enough to stick around all season, and after a 1-2 month tryout, and Miley is healthy, that is what makes the most sense. Or if an injury hits a starter, then he would be on the short list to call if the AAA starters are not quite ready yet. Now I hope Thomas makes this discussion a moot point with sustained success, and I hope no injuries hit the starting staff, but those are the scenarios of Miley coming back happen - if it does.

We will see. Molina had potential l but was a LHP and we just signed a zillion of those. This reeks of a Hudson for Chambers trade last year, but maybe less upside on both. And that’s why we keep T. Jay on the 40 man so he could be dropped - as opposed to a real prospect?

lol. Good for you. And that makes me laugh -,since all last summer that was my evening - get home - have dinner - and enjoy my adult beverage (or 2) and watch some minor league baseball. still none of my business- but appreciate you answering!

When will the Nashville podcast be recorded? A few questions for that - first, what to make of Freddie Zamora? (He had a promotion that may not have been earned, but he did fair when there) And do we still have Collins/Hicklen under control? What are their futures? Will Chad Patrick be ace of AAA, or the #5 starter in Milwaukee? (With a homegrownish rotation of Henderson, Miz, Hunt and even Wichrowski at some point) Do we still have Tyler Jay, and if so what are we thinking he brings? I mean keeping him and losing Shane Smith is a head scratcher for me. Abner Uribe will be back from injury - and will start in AAA I assume, so what to look out for him? Finally - who plays in Nashville in 2025 - not many Shucker earned a promotion but some will have to move up to fill the roster I assume? And not Nashville, but general - who are your favorite UDFA from the past few years, and favorite Indy ball signings? (I know Joseph loves Gardner). Last and way off topic - @Joseph Zarr - what are in your cups - looks like you have 2 or 3 cups during the podcast (you can message as oppose to answering here, or just ignore since it is none of my business).

@Joseph Zarr - you recorded the biloxi episode already? Look forward to it. Bummer - I was going to ask a few questions but I’m sure you both probably went over what I wanted to hear anyway And looks like duewizard asked most of them too. 😃

Great listen, thank you @Spencer Michaelis and @Joseph Zarr. What a christmas present to listen to this. Thanks for taking several of my questions - I'll try not to have so many for next time.

The 2007 season was a major turning point. Good recap and nice memories. That was the beginning of the first wave after rebuilding from the worst times of Brewer history, as Fielder, Weeks, Braun along with Hall, Hart and Hardy created the young core that fueled the 2008-2011 playoff pushes. Back then finding pitching was the Achilles heal of the BrewCrew (while CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke were big trades, no consistent starter developed other than Gallardo, and we had to rely on guys like Suppan and Wolf for big innings over those years). The Braun era also bridged to the Yelich / pitching led seasons that fans know now, and that has become the new standard bearer. Exciting times. This is close to the era that existed before I was a fan - the 1978 - 1983 Brewers who had a winning record and would have made the playoffs multiple times if 3 division or wild card teams existed back then. But that leads to the other memories for me the 1987-1988 seasons, where the Brewers were very competitive and would have been in the mix for playoffs if a different system was used. The 1987 team was better in record than the WS champ Twins, and only finished second because of the dominant seasons the Tigers and Blue Jays had. That was the 13-0/first no-hitter season and also sported the 12 game losing streak. The 1988 team wasn't quite as good, but was within a few games of the BoSox who really struggled in September, and a good final push by the Brewers would have seen them as a Division winner, but they were 4-4 in the last 10 days of the season. But were still one of the top 6 teams in the AL and could haven been playoff caliber with different rules. The 1992 team was the last peak of that Young/Gantner/Molitor led teams that started in the late 70s and essentially ended in 1992. And from that point on the Sal Bando / Selig "dark era" teams of the late 90s and early 00s were awful and didn't have a winning record for a decade and a half, and wasn't even closer than 8 GB in any division until the 2007 seasons. To put that in perspective the Brewers from 1993 - 2006 had one .500 season (2005) during that time and no playoff pushes (closest finish was 3rd place, 8 GB). While from 2007 - 2024 they have had 12 winning seasons out of 18, and 8 playoff appearances. This was even factoring in the 2015-2016 mini-rebuild, and also has the sub-.500 2020 team that made the playoffs (as karma's way of not giving the '87, '88 or '92 teams their deserving chance). So this is the really the best the Brewers have truly been in their history. The 1978-1983 span was amazing, but this 2018-2024 run of 6 playoffs in 7 yeas and 4 division titles I think surpasses that.

Well put. It’s one thing for like the Pirates or the A’s (until this offseason) whose owners don’t care about winning, and get stuck in losing. Another for clubs like the Cards now or the Brewers for a decade where they tried but weren’t very good. Now the teams who are really good at scouting, development and coaching (Rays, Guardians, Brewers for example) get punished because not only can’t they compete with the insane multi-billionaire owners with revenues streams to match, but that can’t even keep their best players. A true cap won’t ever fly - wealthy owners don’t care enough and the players unions won’t ever accept it. But the luxury tax - maybe keeping it and not going up with it - along with some incentive (like maybe pooled money to help keep stars on their teams like a “Jordan” rule in baseball) would be good. Just believing that a Burnes or an Adames or Contreras truly could stay for a long term would help teams and their fan bases. Otherwise it is back to the 50s 60s where the poor teams are the feeders for the big clubs - thats what MLB is looking like these days.

Good point, I completely missed that he is no longer on the list. And yes, these lists are just that a best guess at an organization, and with the Brewers it's tough, as there is a top 5ish, then a 6-30 middle where many players are all about equal and rated depending on how you personally rank (closer to bigs, ceiling vs floor, potential tool, prior track history). And as an aside on the player, I mean I get that we are down on Lara after a just-OK season. But he was a 20-year old in high A, who had a down year offensively compared to his expectations, but he is an elite fielder, makes contact, and wasn't he also in the discussion of good swing decision and/or contact rates? His lack of power as a smaller player is the main negative - as we have plenty of defense first, solid contact guys like Frelick, Turang and we talk about them like it's a negative. But if he can get some gap power he can be a top 10 prospect again. Of note, it seems that the organization, challenging prospects like him or a guy like Wilken hurts their ranking, not that the player or team worry too much. But Wilken. who is way down on many lists - but imagine if he started in high A like B. Taylor (prospect and #1 pick of the Rays in '23), and mashed, and then had a good month at AA, he'd be surefire top 100 prospect like Taylor, but struggling to hit AA pitching and having that facial injury makes him an after thought now it seems.

One more follow up to add - reading some of the end of year prospect ranking list. Can you elaborate on Luis Lara's season? He was so young, and was streaky, but I view it as a major success, however his prospect status has slid quite a bit. Is he still a real prospect considering most players his age were is the ACL or in low A?

Yeah. I was going to argue that they are basing it on pure projection - thus young guys or high draft picks. But Durbin at 15 ahead of Wilken and Adams nixes that. Yeah it’s a weird list. I’ll read their write ups this weekend and see if I can glean anything. But it’s part BA high ceiling, and part name recognition it seems. Does anyone know when JB (Aram and Jack) will post their lists - I think it was early January last year? EDIT: it was 1/7./24 for the Call Up podcast last winter.