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I also would put him in the lower third. I would have him 18-19 range because of a lot of higher ceiling players and some with better tools (Quero, Pratt, Made, Payne, Peña, Y Rodriguez, Wilken, Boeve, Adams, Bitonti as position players). But just my opinion. Interesting to see the variability among posters here.

How does the posting process work - I read how the dollar amount is calculated for the transfer fee and that it counts against the international pool budget. But can the player select the team, or are they obligated to the highest amount. And is the contract a 1-year deal, or does it have to be multi-year? What I am truly asking, is the do the Brewers truly have a shot, or does the player have all the say, and by factoring in advertising/merchandising will they automatically choose LA/NY/Bos/SD, even if the contract is smaller due to international free agent pool limitations?

True, but we usually get a top 25, a couple of other top 50, and several other that would be 50-85, and various outlets have different rankings. For example Jackson Chourio was MLB #16 in 2021, Yophery Rodriguez was #22 in 2023, and Jesus Made was #23 (with Jorge Quintana at #13!) in 2024. So maybe a little lower, but they may have gotten some guys who would in the 50-80 range too. Or maybe there is an international prospect who is out there who can pitch and could be had for a posting amount that could be a nice addition to the rotation ... ahem. 😉 But for reference here is a great blog post about the IFA signings in general that shows it is a crap shoot and the Chourios and Ethan Salas' of the world are in fact rare.

OK. I suck at the advanced metrics, and know enough to get me in trouble. So I will agree with what you have there, as I don't know enough to have a good discussion about it. And will agree he did have good stretches in 2022. This I agree with which is why I say I would love to be wrong. But his control issues are not new, and were downright awful last year. Having watched about 10 of his starts at AAA (give or take), outside of that 3 start span where he still struggled with command, I am not sure anyone would walk away feeling confident about his future, which is why some of us (at least 1 or 2 posters also mentioned it) postulated that we thought he *could* be a DFA candidate because no team would stash him on the 40 man roster with his poor results and take on guaranteed salary (and I didn't explain the DFA comment earlier, it was in the context of opening up a 40 man roster, and that few teams would risk that claim). But his change as a reliever was so great to watch, that is became must see video when he entered the game. But I don't think at this time point I would rely on a lot of IFs to pencil him in as a possible starter now. I like Ashby a lot and hope he becomes a #3 starter, that would be awesome, but he looked nowhere near that last year, and he had a magical August/September, but I'm not ready to assume he can be a reliable starter, and his value as a long reliever and late inning reliever may be good for a team that's competing. If they were out of contention then yeah see what Miz, Ashby, Hall, Henderson can do, but expecting them to fill out the starting rotation, or assuming Woodruff is health, or assuming no regression for a guy like Myers is just so many question marks, even for an organization so good at pitching development. Bottom line - I agree he has the stuff, the potential, and has shown in flashes that he can be good. But with injury, inconsistencies, and only a 1-2 month resurgences (as a reliever) I put Aaron as a big question mark for 2025 right now. I want the stuff/potential to come together, but his command (lack thereof for most of last year and even higher BB rates prior) will be one of the keys for his success if he can overcome, which may not be an easy thing to do.

I will admit I have no idea what the team was thinking, but there was some discussion amongst folks here that he could be a DFA candidate given his incredibly poor results last season. That was his line from 2022, and his ERA 4.81 as a starter and WHIP 1.45 as a starter, and his FIP was 4.52 not too bad I agree, but far from a great track record, so that was part of the thinking - he was OK/decent as a starter, then got hurt, and was awful as a starter last year. Last season in the minors outside of his 5/25 - 6/5 run of three quality starts at AAA, was a disaster. His season was salvaged by his move to the bullpen in August, where he thrived as 1-2 IP reliever. I stated I would love to be wrong about him, but it got to the point where I would not even watch his starts in July because he would just blow up - his 63 walks and 73 hits in 65.2 IP as a starter in AAA. That is not good no matter how you cut it. Not sure what it was - maybe focusing on just an inning or two, and allowing to max out on his pitches as a reliever clicked for him. But nothing there screams - we have a solid #4 or #5 starter for this season if we want to compete.

I agree Jackson Chourio is the major outlier. Guys just do this normally and routinely. And most IFAs who are signed at age 16/17, should take 5-8 years to make it, and that would put them at 22-25 years of age which is more normal for most players to make or contribute in the majors. And like the draft, only a small percentage make it. The Brewers clearly have been adept at signing these players the last few years, but still outside of Quero (who has yet to debut) and Chourio, there has only been Uribe who have made the team or on the cusp. Most are at AA or lower. And some of Chourios' "classmates" - most notably Areinamo - can still make it, but getting 2-3 regular MLB players from an IFA class, is like getting 2-3 MLBers from the draft which is a good thing. You routinely want a few players every year coming from your draft/international scouting to come to the bigs. And if you can get a star player every few years that is amazing. But also on the flip side - you need good scouting to get these players, and even Chourio was not the jewel of the list back then, but is clearly the jewel of that class now, so you never know what you have at first. And give it a few years and then you will see if things pan out.

He was mostly bad all last year as a starter. I know he had a start or two in the bigs, but in Nashville he had a few nice starts, but had issues with control/command and had big innings that limited any effectiveness as a starter. Once he went to the bullpen he went from a DFA candidate to a 40 man roster pitcher. I don't see him as a starter at this time point based upon both his injury history and the results of last season, in addition to the fact he wasn't great as a starter prior to the injury. I would love to be wrong, but counting on him or DL Hall to be starters when both look like solid bullpen arms is not the best if you are trying to truly compete. If this is a retool type of year - go with what you have and see if you get lucky - then yes stretch them out and see what happens. If this is a year they want to try to go for a 3rd consecutive division title, then can't expect him to be a starter. Like above, with Peralta and Cortes yes you have 2 MLB starters. Woodruff is coming off major injury. Myers had an amazing season, but I am not ready to anoint him as a top/middle of the rotation piece quite yet. The rest are young and/or limited as starters. The Brewers have been excellent at running out less experienced arms in the past and found ways to make them work (Jason Alexander for example; or how we had a near Cy Young two half seasons from Eric Lauer), but having 3-4 pitchers you can count on consistent, reliable innings is so important to not tax the bullpen. Plus pitchers can get injured, and we need starters to be insurance in case of those things.

Right, that pick must be signed or it doesn't carry over. I suspect it will be an underslot player, which serves two purposes - makes sure we get a player we like, and then use the money saved on that and likely another first or early second day pick and then use it for the 11-20 rounders.

For the T-Rats video - did you get questions (did I miss it)? Or are you still taking for questions? And if still taking them - how do we get them to you?

If Cortes is healthy, and has an expected season based upon his track record, he will be either traded for prospect or two at the deadline if the Brewers are not having a playoff caliber season, or he will get a QO and leave as a FA and we get the same compensation as Williams if he just stayed plus a utility player in Durbin. i do think the brewers factor the draft picks in and wonder if that was part of the calculus in the Burnes deal (get players with control AND a draft pick), and this one (a controllable player, and a pitcher who can provide value next season plus who would gain the draft pick). So it’s not do we get players or draft pick for an impending FA, but gain player(s) AND a pick still.

Agree. The quantity of starters is high, and several in the minors too. But, unless this is a “soft” retool year which this trade argues against, then they need the quality. Last year it was Peralta, Rea and Myers (and Gasser for a few starts) who covered the quality innings until Civale arrived. But with Rea gone, Myers no longer a rookie and unknown entity where regression can occur, Gasser in the shelf. That leaves Hall (ineffective as a starter last year). Woodruff (coming back from serious injury) as the other MLB starters. Sure Miz, Henderson or Patrick could be a quality starter, or Ashby or another arm could cover starts. But by keeping Peralta, Cortes and Civale at the top of the rotation you have some quality innings on a consistent basis. Civale or Cortes are sure fire candidates for a trade deadline deal if this is in fact a down year (and boy it’s hard to always stay competitive with losing quality like Hader, Burnes, Adames and D Williams in a 2.5 year span). If not one or the other pitch their way to being a QO’d free agent and another early round pick. So in some sense I guess I agree with @Jason Wangthat a starter could be traded but disagree it will be this offseason - and expect next trade deadline if it happens.

What a way to start my Saturday. 4.5 hours of minor league recap 😉😃 I got caught up on both videos. Wow. Amazing job @Joseph Zarr @Spencer Michaelis Thank you both for doing that love the videos added, and you really went into something on so many different players. No need to keep it under 2 hours, just cover what you cover, as there is a lot going on in the minors. (Well I guess the Shuckers recall could be under 2 hours as there are 2-3 months of the season that don’t need any review sadly) Looking forward to the T-Rats review. That was my favorite team of the year. A very deep lower levels of the minors with so many intriguing players.

Uribe's biggest issue last year was his emotions/maturity but meaning in the way that most recall - like his fight. His body language on the mound and how he let innings or batters get away from him. The year before he was new, and surprised people and things were working well. Last year they weren't. The stats/metric people can remind me and others how the FB had changed both in velocity and movement, but he didn't seem to respond well, that led to a few disaster innings if I am remembering correctly. If his FB remains electric and it can be elite, then he can be a mainstay as the RHP, or set up or possibly closer. Agree that Megill is #1 to be closer, then Payamps, and then it is up to Yoho, Uribe and maybe even Miz.

I will disagree. His "ceiling" is mid-rotation starter, however, his secondary pitches were not as effective (some of the metrics or pitching savvy commentators please correct me here if I am off base), and his prior arm injury probably limited his SP potential. That is why (as I still seek counseling) I believe Chad Patrick was added and Smith was not. He could be a middle-to-high leverage BP arm. I think his floor is middle leverage BP arm right now. I think the emergence of Wichrowski, Hunt and Yoho from '23 draft, and I would assume that the team eyes some break out form '24 arms, led to this gamble. A team is never perfect, but I would imagine that he would have been at least valuable trade asset, although I don't know the details on that - if we had say traded Smith Monday, would he still have been rule V eligible? Or could the other team still add a player like him to the 40 man roster after that deadline date?

It is clumsy, and was trying to help create balance and incentives to win. So it was a reaction (over-reaction?) to teams tanking and owners not trying build competitive teams, as well as another way to penalize the super rich teams. Since the Brewers are a small market club and trying to win, it seems like a good system for us fans, we moved up a few slots a couple years back when we missed the '22 playoffs, and those extra slots meant more bonus pool in the 2023 epic draft, so I kind of like the system for that. But yes, there are a lot of rules, and some seem to be overly punitive. But I also don't worry about the LA/Chicago/NY/Boston teams getting penalized in the draft since every year they can sign FAs to create mini All Star Teams (just look at the last WS).

Or for those who are fans of Phish:

Or his prior injury limited him to just relief, and they valued Chad Patrick as a starter, along with Henderson, Rodriguez, MIz, and just felt it was a risk to take. But still Tyler Jay and Vinny Capra are on the 40 man. I mean I am sure they are quality players, but just don't seem to be way above average MLBers, and Smith could be a lightning in a bottle like Cousins, Topa, Feyereisen who could excel for a few seasons or become a valuable trade asset.

I hear ya. Briceno was a nice swiss army knife player, and meshed well (or so it seemed) with the guys in A ball. I still am sitting here wondering about maybe I didn't overvalue Shane Smith. Maybe the Brewers brass undervalued him? I don't know time will tell, but I just felt like he was one of those players who could shine with our organization. Oh well, as you stated (and @Jim Goulartthen responded!) - let's see what AAA Rule 5 pick up gems we may have unearthed and see if those guys can become keys to the Brewers success, particularly Peek.

OK. The other thing to consider. For so many years we have had prospects who we as fans thought so highly of, and probably overvalued, and some of those we worried could be selected in rule V draft, and most years these players weren't selected. This year, we had a RP who we thought highly of, but who is among 5-6 pitchers at the AAA level who could be MLB ready this season, and he was in that group, and was not only selected, but selected first, indicating that our prospects have a lot of value. We still have Misio, Henderson, Hunt, Yoho and Rodriguez that are AAA and all equal to or higher rated than Smith. AND the team protected Chad Patrick (who is a starter, so that is a difference) over Smith, so the team clearly values him more. My only critique right now, is if Smith was not going to be protected, could they have tried to deal him for another prospect?? Or did the brass really thing he was going to go unselected?? OK. maybe my vent really ends now? Or I guess maybe I will post more later.....

Sad. Confused. Trying to trust the model. But still very very sad. Shane Smith is not only a good pitcher, but a guy you completely root for. Still unsure how/why they would leave him unprotected, and keep Jay or Capra??? Anyway, I've vented. Now it's time to see what's next.

Yup. Austin Tatious pointed that out — momentary brain lapse. Excited to see what Meccage can do, and what we do with the extra pick for Levonas.

Yes they do fly by. That’s a fun video. Baez is a solid hitter so far in his career, and still young (he was a ‘22 signing I believe but is only 6 months older than Yophery). If he can play average 2B/3B his bat can take him up the chain. And young enough to still develop more power.

I think Chourio has set an unrealistic bar. Going from 2021 IFA signing to MLB deal winter of 23/24 to opening day kind up and rookie of the year candidate (in 3 years!) is so atypical. Luis Lara and Yophery Rodriguez are the last two high profile signings who skipped the ACL after DSL debut. Made will follow that path for sure. Even Chourio logged in a season at A ball but then made that jump to AA. Lara and Rodriguez while not as talented as Made are seemingly going a more conventional one level at a time path. I would love to see Made in the 2027 MLB roster discussion, but he has yet to play stateside, and those are not realistic expectations for a young kid who if he was born in the US would be likely a HS senior only this school year. This time last year he was not on the radar much (he was one of three higher dollar signees linked to the Brewers, but Quintana and Peña seemed to get more buzz than him). It will be interesting this year to see which prospects jump (like Made, Areinamo, Wichrowski, Yoho did last year), and which players drop down the rankings or have a struggling year (like EBJ, Guilarte, Wilken). Last year Yoho and Hunt nor Made were really discussed, and they made up 3/4 of the minor league players of the year awards along with Pratt.

Agree. A 4 year deal would have been something you can live with, but he was not going to settle for that, and obviously a team was willing to meet length and salary demands so good for Willy. And a top 40 pick to go along with two other picks in the 20s and 30s gives the Brewers key bonus pool money that they can continue to be creative with, and try to maximize the number of higher ceiling prospects. For all the talk of a downfall last year, particularly after the Burnes trade, it was all for naught. Too bad we couldn’t exorcise the playoff series demons to win a series for the first time since that magical ‘08 run. But I am so much happier as a fan having that type of “losing” streak, then the 1993-2006 losing season record streak, or the 1982 - 2008 playoff drought streaks. It would be fun to see a playoff run again, but so so much better than feeling like all hope is lost during the season year in and year out. Good luck Willy. Glad you are not in the NL Central.

OH great. I missed it in that thread. Thanks Mass Good news for the Brew Crew.