biedergb

Quite a night. I’ll miss it tonight. Can’t wait to read up on it tomorrow.

I agree - I think Kiley does a good job. But they often and still do appear to hear the chatter from bigger media outlets. He is good but if you hear 10x as much about a Yankee prospect it will still affect your view compared to prospect who gets little hype. That’s changing with BP, JustBaseball, and guys like our own Spencer etc. getting info on other markets. The other is we overvalue our prospects for similar reasons - we discuss it here frequently. And we also see the development and see the fit with the club. So I agree. I’m not ragging ESPN but they do get more info from national sources. And bigger name players or IFA signings get more hype. And also BA seems to have fallen out of favor for us as well so it’s not just an ESPN thing.

ESPN historically has been awful for ranking anything in baseball - it’s LA, Boston, NY and Chicago with the hype those media outlets provide - ESPN then uses that to factor into who is good or not. And they clearly overlook smaller markets we don’t have as much media hype

Yeah, I think I agree with the names on David Gasper's list but the order is up for a lot of debate. But truly 30-40 prospects deep, with a very solid top 20-25. Guys like Pratt, Yophery, J. Made will be top 100 prospects moving forward, and a lot of us can agree with Aram on Luke Adams. If he can replicate this at AA next year he is a sure fire top 100 prospect then. A big IF.

Also to note a Paul Hoff outing on the island. He went a while without pitching but has made a few appearances recently. Jose Anderson HR watch still going on. None since July 15 😳😳😳 Finally the race for DSL Brew1 OPS lead will come down to,the wire between Made and Peña. Just unbelievable the season those two have had.

Whoa. Did the Shuckers revert back to May? They got 1-hit in 2 games in a row? But at least Chad Patrick appears to be himself. Another evening of travel for me, and odd and off night for the affiliates. I did get to watch Miz from last night (well 2nd inning only as milb tv lost the first inning). And he looked good And Wichrowski also looked mostly solid, looking more in control and touched 97. Not a lot of pitching to review from tonight it seemed like. DSL boys were the entire offense as well.

So I had to fly for a meeting, and with the delay just got down to read up on things about 10-15 minutes ago. Man after that offensively charged 7-1 night last night, this seems like a let down. Muddies came out hitting and Bitonti wow that kid can hit for power. Some good pitching - I’ll watch Miz and Wichrowski tomorrow morning. Some not great pitching. Not a lot of hits outside of the low A game. I guess I picked the right now to be glued to milb (last night) and the right night to have travel and travel delays 🙄 Anyway @Joseph Zarr - amazing effort in the play by play and thanks to @wiguy94 among others too. When I can’t watch it’s great to “see” these games play out in this forum/thread. What a treat!

First WOW, that is so impressive. I have been a big fan of Yophery. And Baez too. We forget he is only 6 months older than Yophery, but had another year of action (DSL in '22, ACL in '23, and low A in '24). Yophery is cutting down on the K. I can't find a source that gives monthly splits with advanced metrics. But looking at raw data, his K rate (calculated as K/(AB+BB) since I can't find monthly splits on HBP or SF etc) has gone from 35% in April, to 26% in May, to 21-22% in June/July. It is 16% this month in only a handful of games. But he is trending in the acceptable 20-25% K rate range, for a guy with power that's something I can live with. But a trend down showing he has improved somewhat is nice to see for a guy that young.

Yeah. Odd. As he pitched all season at low A. Maybe to help build innings and confidence, and maybe to help the Mudcats win games later in the season. Now this year he sprints past A+, the stops in Biloxi for a bit and off to Nashville. Good for him Thats 3-4 quality arms in AAA (Miz, CFRod, Henderson and the overlooked Patrick). To go with Gasser, Hall as young arms to work into the rotation next year along with Freddy, Colin, Tobias and Civale, along with the unknowns of Miley (retire?) and Woodruff (shoulder surgery). That’s a plethora of possible pitchers to pen in the rotation next year.

Yeager goes ground out (off his leg) for a simple 1-3 put out for out #1. Then fools him with a nice ? curve. And then pure heat and it’s a K. 2 outs! Last man up and lines it heading to LF for a single but No Way Not Today say EBJ. Snares the last out. Sweet. Great come from behind win. its a 7-1 day/night for the affiliates. For those who love milb it’s days like today you dream of. Bigs wins. Promotions. Big hits. Comebacks. Blow outs. Nice pitching performances. All around. Oh yeah and Manuel Rodriguez. I mean he works around contact. And he *only* gets through 4 IP. I mean he must lead the organization in average IP per start or at least top 3-5 right? If Miz had the composure and efficiency he has, or if Manuel had some of Miz’s raw stuff…. ‘So how did the brewers do tonight? 😉

And they break through. Hall singles, Sparks singles the Martin triples them home. Then Boeve with a high chopper that goes just over the drawn in but leaping 2B, and it’s 6-3 yay boy! Wilken GIDP - a tough 0-5 with 3K night for him. Then Miller strikes out and it’s off to the bottom of the ninth.

Gives up a HR. But Middendorf gets the last out. Sounds win. ‘Gardner goes 1-2-3 in the 8th, Shuckers back up top 9.

Quad City gets the 2 runs and keep the TRats off the board. 5-0 final. Meanwhile a laugher in Fredericksburg 15-1 Sounds look to Middendorf to close it out And Shuckers get two men on but can’t score. Gardner stays in to keep it tied I hope. 3-3 bottom 8.

And the Mudcats pour it on. Meanwhile, TRats fail to score. A K by Garcia, and then a pop up by Wood. And then they keep Wehrle in. Walks a couple of guys. Still in. A caught stealing. Another walk. Oof. Then a strikeout but successful double steal. Just need an out to keep it close, but gives up a hit. 5–0 now. Finally ends the inning. 64 pitches in 3.1 innings.

Ok TRats. Lara flies out. Pratt with his third double. Areinamo HBP. Adams? What else HBP 😂 but he’s down in a heap but then jumps up and jogs to first. lets go TRats!!

I think Javik used that word as the ball went out

A wild pitch ball 4 and EMJ is on while EBJ scores. 3-3. Well that offense woke up. ‘TRats not yet.

Then after a Wilken deep fly out, D. Miller deep to LF for a double. Then EBJ with a ripped single to LF, and they send Miller 😳 good thing the throw was way offline, somehow Miller avoided the tag? either way it’s 3-2

Sounds keep pouring it on. And the Muddies in cruise control. TRats and Shuckers need to wake the offense up. Both down 3-0, but wait. Boeve HR! Shuckers get run. Boeve scorches one. Line drive to the RF corner. Just ripped it.

Does this have anything to do with the 165 player limit? I mean if a draft pick signs, and is not assigned to a team, can we then assign that player later and not have to release someone (assuming we are at the limit already) until the fall or next spring? Or once they are signed, that player takes up one of these spots?

So that rotation now goes Logan Henderson (2021 draft pick), Shane Smith (2021 UDFA), Brett Wichrowski and Tate Kuener (both 2023 draftees!) and KC Hunt (2023 UDFA). So 6 players signed from the draft pool last year at in AA now a mere 13 months later (Wilken, Boeve, Wichrowski, Yoho, Kuener, Hunt). That's impressive. I mean not 2023 draft pick starting in the ASG in 2024 (Skenes) impressive, but wow pretty darn close to have that many in AA already. EDIT: WELP - with Yoho now in AAA, nix that first sentence, and make that impressiveness now an 11.

There has been a lot of grumblings (mostly because of the slump the team has been in), that there has not been much success in hitters. Agree Contreras (trade), and MItchell/Frelick are decent hitters so far. Ortiz and Turang started hot and faded, so hard to know with them. But Chourio so far looks like he is for real given the way he has come on recently. So with the funk of Turang and Ortiz, and the ok hitting of Frelick (good BA but no power) and Mitchell (SSS since his restart), there isn't a lot of faith that there will be true help on the way. But right now I agree we have a good group of positional players who should be able to hit at all levels, however, I was trying to convince myself I guess that the lack of hitters (until now) was maybe a predictable thing and that this year is hopefully a hint of what is to come. I want to look back in 3-4 years and see a lineup of mostly homegrown hitters who have good stats. This season seems to make that more likely, and it's hard for me to be optimistic in public, as I fear jinxing these things, so you can now blame me if all goes south.

The concern has been that while the Brewers have produced some good in-house pitchers who developed from prospect to solid starter or reliever (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, D. Williams, and even Hader spend a couple of seasons in our minors), they have not done well with hitters (since the Braun/Fielder and up to the Lucroy years). And the optimistic view is that this will change. But will it? Has there really been a steady stream of good hitting prospects in the minors that just haven't had success, OR have there been players with one good season or potential that were maybe overvalued? I don't know if this will answer this question completely (ask me in 2-3 years) but I tried to evaluate this. In summary, in reviewing the Brewers minor league hitters from the last few seasons, the current crop of hitters this year (and last season) appear to be better overall than we've had in previous years. I reviewed the top hitters based upon WRC+ from 2021 through 2024 seasons, I didn't include 2020 because of the pandemic and did not factor in the seasons prior to that for this review but could do so later. I looked at WRC+ (per fan graphs) and also looked at key peripherals (like K rate, BABIP, ISO). I also focused on age, and while thiis was not designed to be a perfect cut off, I used the following ages for whether one is considered young, average or old for a given league based upon the following ages: · DSL – 18 years or younger (an argument could be made that this should be 17) · ACL – 19 years or younger · A – 20 years or younger · A+ - 21 years or younger · AA - 22 years or younger · AAA - 23 years or younger Part of this was to make it simpler with the data analysis. The other part is these would be appropriate ages for a hitter in that league. I also went with the highest level that the player had that season to give them the benefit of the doubt of moving up the chain. Also, for simplifying I went with the statistics for their entire season, so that a hot start at one level would not count as much unless they had sustained success at the next level. For example, like Tayden Hall this year who had such a hot start in Carolina but has struggled in Wisconsin. In summary the number of players with a WRC+ of greater than 100 has increased. But more importantly those greater than 133 (arbitrary cutoff) have gone up, and most importantly is the players with good offensive numbers were more likely to be younger relative to the league that they were in in recent years. In 2021 there were a total of 22 players greater than 100 WRC+, with 12 of them greater than 120, and 4 greater than 133. Of those four, only one was young for their level and three were average age for their level. In 2022 there were a total of 19 players greater than 100, of which 5 were greater than 120, and 3 greater than 133. In 2023 a total of 20 players greater than 100, 7 greater than 120, and 6 greater than 133 (with three of them being considered young) This year it's a total of 29 players greater than 100, 15 greater than 120, and 8 greater than 133. Of the 15 players with a WRC+ greater than 120, 8 of them are deemed young for their level. And of the 8 who are > 133, six of them are young for their level (all 4 of the DSL “studs”) On a closer dive, looking year by year. In 2021 the top four were Wiemer (22-year-old) at A and A+, but he had a K rate of 22%, and was older/average age for his levels. The next was McGee who is also 22 years old add A/A+, but with a 30% K rate. Felix Valerio was the only young one is a 20-year-old at A+. And overall, he had good peripherals so appears to be the most likely to succeed. Jesus Chirino rounded out the top four. Jackson Chourio was #6 with A WRC+ of 131. After that there were a mix of guys at various levels (J. Gray 21 yo at A/A+, Thomas Dillard, Zavier Warren, Korry Howell, David Fry). Valerio looked the part but that was really his only really good year. Most of those players did not sustain their production outside of the one year. Dillard was the exception. And Fry was traded the following year. In 2022 while the overall numbers were lower there was a small improvement in the caliber of some of the players. The top three were Peters (22 yo at A+), Frelick (22 and went from A+ to AA to AAA) and Chourio (18 yo a A/A+ and ended in AA). Then Guilarte and D. Miller. Then several older players such as Singleton, Reyes, but a few younger players such as Quero, Turang, Nadal and Barrios. But Turang who had his best season in 2022 in the minors only had a WRC+ of 108 with a BABIP of .342, and his K rate was just under 20% so not awesome but it was his high-water mark in the minors. In 2023 we saw higher overall offensive marks with guys like Black, Adams, Clark, Avina and Y. Rodriguez (who along with Nadal and DiTuri had great seasons in the DSL). Clarke and Avina had K rates of 29%. But the best part was we had multiple players who were on the list for consecutive seasons such as Chourio (who was still incredibly young for his level), Areinamo, and Quero to name a few. This year in 2024 the list is dominated by the DSL kids (Pena, Made, Ortuno, Anderson). And really the only overage prospects in the top 15 are Hicklen and Martinez. There are several repeat players like Y. Rodriguez, Black, DiTuri, Adams. But that list also includes recent draftees Boeve, Wilken and Pratt. What all this means and hopefully suggests is that prior to the past couple years there were not a lot of legitimate offensive position player prospects in the system. But that number has grown over the past few years with underlying peripherals to suggest that these players may be able to have success as they move up. The most recent “crop” of graduates headlined by Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Black, Turang and Chourio, only had one good season (for most of them) with some concerns (high key rate or low ISO). Chourio and Black were really the only exceptions of this group of positional prospects. Now a group of Adams, Areinamo, Pratt, Rodriguez along with Black, Wilken, DiTuri have the age, lower K rate, reasonable BABIP, and either good ISO or excellent speed that could translate into future success. Quero obviously missed the season but was on the list the prior two seasons. And while the DSL players are very hard to predict, the fact that we have four with such a great season (so far) that even if only one or two of them become solid prospects that will bode well for the system. So, while there's clearly some recency bias, it does appear as though the past two years have had more players with sustained success, young or age appropriate for their level, and with better peripherals (walk rate, K rate, BABIP, ISO) to suggest that they may have future success. Or at least that's what I'm hoping to convince myself. But a guy like Chourio it was on this list for multiple years and had good overall peripherals is making me believe that there's something to the statistical analysis.

True. As I said the timing wasn't right and the details aren't the same, but the July/August swoon still feels more that club than the 2018, 2019, 2021 or 2023 clubs. But fair points, and reminds me that if I go by memory (and not fact checking myself) that I will be wrong more often than not.

Olson is the one that really hurt. Imagine having another homegrown pitcher in the rotation who could pitch innings, and is young and controllable. And knowing that we only got Norris who bombed badly for us in the stretch makes it even worse. Hanniger is the best player we "lost", but got a serviceable player in Parra at least. Hamilton would b fine, but we have speed and defense and his offensive numbers may not be reproducible on this club - Sox have 5 regular starters with OPS > 800, and OPS+ > 120. We have Yelich. Fry would have been nice but as @sveumrules pointed out he did not sustain his magical season, but the JC Mejia trade was awful bad. Otherwise the Rasmussen for Adames trade was a win-win. The Grisham for Urias/Lauer trade netted us a solid season plus of those players, and Grisham has had a very up and down career.