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JCREW

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Everything posted by JCREW

  1. JCREW
    The Dodgers’ pitchers rose to the moment. I’d argue that Snell, Yamamoto, and Ohtani (offense included) had 95th percentile or better games. Glasnow was probably 80th percentile. Certainly, the Crew’s offensive approach has to be considered in those pitcher outcomes, but the way those guys were placing pitches and not throwing waste pitches was surgical. Put together some squishy math on three 95th percentile outcomes and one 80th percentile and you’re looking at a 1 in 40,000 probability of that sort of confluence of pitching excellence. If you’re willing to call Snell, Yoshi, and Ohtani’s starts 99th percentile games, then you’re quickly looking at a 1 in a million outcome for the Dodgers. Their pitchers just rose to the moment in a collective fashion that is wildly improbable, and the Brewer hitters couldn’t match it.
  2. JCREW
    Also eastern TZ. My 9yo fell asleep during the 3rd on Monday. My 12yo made it to the 7th. hopefully the crew puts up a lotta runs before they fall asleep.
  3. JCREW
    I don't watch much football, so at first when I read this, I was very concerned about what "MLF milking" was.
  4. JCREW
    But... When will Matt Arnold start to receive some criticism?
  5. JCREW
    Only 3 Cub baserunners in innings 3-9. The Trebnered Mearsorowstrick was amazing tonight.
  6. JCREW
    Greg should have outmaneuvered us and started Rea and Civale.
  7. JCREW
    Isn't there a site that has them available mid-game? Can anyone help with that?
  8. JCREW
    TBS Put the second best person on the matchup that the coastal elites are watching. Jesus and St. Peter put Uecker on the game they're watching.
  9. JCREW
    I think my biggest frustration with Darling and whoever is that Anderson and Francoeur are SOOOOOOO much better. I have the radio synched up with TBS muted.
  10. JCREW
    It's definitely confirmation bias, but I didn't like the idea of leaving Luzardo in there again for the 7th. Just trust your pen, man. Another trip through that lineup is begging to get beat up.
  11. JCREW
    You spoke too soon. Atlanta scored again!
  12. JCREW
    I hear you, but I think the current Cubs are them regressing toward the mean from an over-their-heads start to the year.
  13. JCREW
    With a larger bullpen that the postseason provides and the results improving the more he lathers up, what about having Woody do his normal warmup routine 20 minutes earlier, then throwing a simulated inning before first pitch? Then plan for him to go 5 innings before turning it over to a pretty dang good bullpen.
  14. JCREW
    0-0 this year. I live outside of Atlanta. The ballpark experience (traffic, parking, 90deg and humid) at Truist is miserable unless you want to spend more than $100 per person, so we enjoyed the sweep from the couch this year. I'm 1-7 in all my previous trips to Truist & Turner. You can thank my pennypinching for not costing us a game or two in that series.😤
  15. JCREW
    Naah, fam. We need that reverse jinx magic.
  16. JCREW
    I've been trying to figure out my best guess for Woody next year. It's hard to figure. If he had hit free agency injury free, he'd probably be looking at 7 years, 200M+. With the injury and the added recovery year, I think its more like 4 years $80M. I think someone will definitely offer him 80M. I think some team might even push $100M. That kind of depends on where these big spenders are with their luxury tax space. Fangraphs had another writeup on him today. (Congrats to Brewerfanatic's @Michael Trzinski for the shoutout in the article.) He's a great pitcher with an injury that pulled him back from being elite. I hope the Brewers can sign him for 4 years and $80M.
  17. JCREW
    I'd be willing to bet it's very close to the win probability of games that are 1-0 after the first inning. Looking through a couple of those from the past few days on fangraphs, my guess is that an average team would have a .566 winning percentage. Roughly a 92 win season. I think with an elite run-prevention unit (The Brewers) that would jump to well over 100 wins.
  18. JCREW
    I don't ever want this team to mail it in, but... Yelich needs a day. I think a lot of the forum would agree. Many have noted that Frelick still seems a little cautious. We need him to be active when baby Collins arrives. Mona, <s>Haase</s> Jansen, and Lockridge need to stay sharp. Turang is the one I'd like to see in the lineup, just because he's on a bit of a power surge, and I'd love to see that grow.
  19. JCREW
    Not to stray too far from baseball, but I was talking with a few guys who had recently retired. They both worked for part of their careers in small, family-owned businesses, and for large, NYSE-traded megacorporations. Both noted how the smaller organizations did a much better job of finding good people and committing to those people, while the megacorps were just driven by the quarterly earnings report at the expense of people. I don't know that the Brewers and Dodgers are as different as a small business and a megacorporation, but having good people probably helps MKE draw in a few extra fans at the margins, where the Dodgers will always have the casual millions of Angelinos who will throw money at tickets, regardless of the makeup of the team.
  20. JCREW
    Good people who are good to each other and work hard... It's the new moneyball market inefficiency. That might also be true beyond baseball...
  21. JCREW
    OptaStats is officially a Brewers media outlet these days. I love it.
  22. JCREW
    Doesn't this just mean he quit hitting pop-ups?
  23. JCREW
    Yeah, prove-it deal seems likely. Either MKE or hometown StL.
  24. JCREW
    My highly specific prediction: 5 IP, 1R, 1ER, 2H, 2BB, 6K Gives up a homer to Soto, two walks to Nimmo, and a single to McNeil.
  25. JCREW
    Is it? Awesome. Make it keep happening.
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