804Sox

Interesting proposal, but what would be the Marlins' motivation for trading Nolasco? It seems that with Hanley locked up, guys like Josh Johnson, Nolasco, Volstadt, etc. all beginning to enter their primes, and top prospects like Cameron maybin, Gaby sanchez, etc on the horizon, this is the part of the Marlins "5-year plan" where they add a player or two and take a shot at a WS. I don't think they're ready to blow up this squad yet.

Minorleaguebaseball has him at a .55 GO/AO and minorleaguesplits has his GB% at 30.6% this year and 39.2% in his career. That's certainly not a ground ball pitcher and certainly not 1:1. I have him at .93 G/F this year, 1.13 G/F last year in Pawtucket, 1.26 last year in Portland, but i see your stats on milb.com. Not sure what the problem is. I do, however, remember that in 07 Bowden was featured in a BP article as one of only a few pitcher in the minors to have a K rate over 7.5 and a G/F over 1.35 or something like that. It was, like, him, Hughes, and somebody else. I'll see if i can find it . . .

while he's been a flyball pitcher so far in the majors, it's in a really small sample which i feel is deceiving. He's been neutral this year at Pawtucket (about 1:1) and has actually been a pretty consistent groundball pitcher throughout his minorleague career. I can't explain his troubles generating GB outs in the majors other than attributing it to small sample (he's pitched relatively well though), however earlier this yar in pawtucket he was working hard on incorporating a new slider, throwing it muh more often than he ordinarily would. This (perhaps) resulted in a few bad outings around midseason, and could have led to a few more popups than groundouts, as Bowden often goes to his change or curve as an out pitch.

I think you guys need to check out Manny D's stats and/or watch him pitch. He's only 27 and is putting up excellent results for the third straight year. The throws mid-upper 90's with a good changeup and one of the nastiest curves in MLB. I'd call it plus plus. None of this really matters though, because my main point was that adding him to a Hardy-Bowden trade would tip the scales far too much, as would the addition of Bard. Lowrie's injury definitely makes Hardy a more desirable commodity for the Red Sox, and I could see a deal centered around Bowden working for both sides if ardy passes through waivers. What would people think of Hardy for Bowden + one of Ryan Lavarnway/Jason Place/Caleb Clay/Fabian Williamson/Brock Huntzinger?

If Cameron leaves too, Dunn could be part of the worst defensive outfield in baseball history

I think the JJ Putz deal is more realistic as a model, although there were some other parts that make it more complex. In any case, I don't think DelCarmen is neccessarily out of line as a return for Hardy in terms of pure "value", I just think that the Red Sox (or perhaps I'm just projecting my own preference) value him more than they do the upgrade that Hardy would provide over Lowrie/whoever for 1 year. For what it's worth, I think the Giants are selling high on Alderson even though they probably could have gotten more for him. His delivery screams inverted W, even to a non-expert at mechanics like myself.

He's Braddock with a track-record of MLB success. You don't trade him for 1 year of a SS coming off a terrible season, when you already have a player you like at that position.

I'm tentatively on board, I'm just worried about his A+ peripherals considering his age for the level. He is at best age appropriate for A+, even a bit on the old side, and is really going to have to rely on precise command as he works his way up the levels. Keeping the fingers crossed, but we'll see.

According to Gammons: "The Red Sox offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Nick Hagadone, Justin Masterson and position prospects for Roy Halladay. Debate that for awhile. Boston did not include Daniel Bard in their available prospect lists despite reports." [emphasis mine] A pervious report stated the that Sox gave the Mariners a chance to pick any 5 players out of: - Clay Buchholz - Daniel Bard - Justin Masterson - Nick Hagadone - Michael Bowden - Felix Doubront - Josh Reddick - Yamaico Navarro (This makes sense, as Bard, Westmoreland, Kelly, and Tazawa were viewed as untouchables heading into the deadline - Lars Anderson is also absent from this list, as well as Stolmy Pimentel) Both were turned down, and are MASSIVE packages, regardless of how you feel about certain prospects. I think this probably just means Felix won't be traded . . . w.r.t. Hardy, I don't think you could get much more than Bowden staright up for him at this point, much less Bowden + Bard/DelCarmen. I honestly don't think you could even get Delcarmen or Bard straight up for Hardy based on the fact that the Sox wouldn't trade Delcarmen for Nick Johnson, and reportedly rejected another offer from the Marlins in which Delcarmen was the centerpiece.

I like Bowman, but he has a lot to prove before he can be talked about as a top prospect. While his results have been good at every stop, he's always been a bit old for his level and, as some have mentioned, isn't the type of "power pitcher" that will generate a lot of swings and misses. Every report I've read regards him as having pretty good control, so I'm quite surprised that he's walked so many batters since his promotion to Brevard county, even if the high total has been heavily influenced by a few bad outings. He got roughed up in a couple starts early on, so my best guess is that he's simply trying to be too fine/is afraid to throw strikes after giving up a couple HRs. If he improves on this and starts trusting his stuff more (he spots his FB pretty well and has some good movement), while continuing to have good results, then next year he definitely enters the discussion of pitchers on the horizon, but if his peripherals remain the same - even if his ERA stays in the neighborhood of 3.50 - I think he remains in the group of fringy prospects.

Just don't count on that young pitcher being Matusz or Tillman. Arrieta's probably a longshot, but Erbe might work.

Harang would be a really good acquisition, and getting out of Cincy might save his career. He just hasn't been the same since dusty started running his arm into the ground. A package centered around Salome/Lucroy and supplemented by a lower level pitcher like Anundsen or Odorizzi would seem to be sufficient given his contract and recent performance.

Exactly. This isn't a fire-sale. I've only suggested trading players who are not in the organizations long term plans such that the team (built around the core of Gallardo, Braun, Escobar, Prince, Gamel, and maybe Parra, Salome, Braddock, and Lucroy) is better positioned to win in 2011 or even 2010. Cameron is a good player. there's no question about that, but that's also why it would be a good time to trade him. He has value to contending teams and a reasonable short-term contract. He's the perfect acquisition for the stretch run given his power and defensvie prowess, and as such should return good value. Same with Hardy. He's a good, affordable player, but with Escobar ready he's expendable as long as he returns useful parts in a trade. Finally, if the GM refuses to make a move that will help the team in the long run simply because he is worried about fan reaction, then he probably won't be a GM for long. I think that most knowledgeable baseball fans now realize the economic value of youg talent and building from within. Not long ago the average fan would love to get Victor Zambrano for some kid like Scott Kazmir down the stretch, but the proliferation of prospecting in the mainstream baseball media has made even the casual fans cling to top prospects, even if they know nothing about them. Yeah, selling htis year might reduce attendance this year and next, but building a perennial playoff and even championship contender in the process will easily recoup that revenue in the long term.

I think that the Card's addition of Holliday makes them the clear favorite now, meaning it might be time for the brewers to sell. I'd look to unload any of Hoffman, Looper, Suppan, Kendall, Hall, Cameron, Hardy, and Hart as long as the return was decent. Unfortunately, it might be hard to find takers for Kendall, Hall, and on others based on their contracts and production. Edit: Unless the Brewer's acquire a player like Halladay

That would be a great deal for the Brewers. They'd immediately become the team to beat in their division and would parobably have as good a shot as any team in the NL at making the WS except the Dodgers

Bailey? yes. Hughes? Not so sure. Bailey's stock has really fallen the past couple years, and I don't think Hardy would be out of line as a return. Brewers might have to send a little extra back. I'd hold on to Hardy though, personally. I'm not real high on Bailey and think he's a huge risk. Not totally buying the recent success, but I guess his upside makes him a good return for Hardy with Escobar waiting in the wings

Give me a break, Fielder would be the best hitter on that team. Bay and Youkilis are the only guys in his OPS stratosphere and he's 5 years younger than both of them. His defense doesn't matter because he can DH, why would Bay DH when he's still adequate in the OF, why reduce his value? If DM ever made Fielder available I'd bet you my house Theo would be interested.I think you're right that Fielder would be the best hitter on the team, but with the Texeira deal setting the market in some ways, I don't think the Sox would be interested in Fielder at that price when they have a young 1st-basement of the future almost ready. Also, Fielder probably doesn't have too many years left at 1B (he seems to be a better fielder this year, but I worry about his body in the long term), meaning he'd need to DH, a spot I see occupied by Bay after Ortiz is gone.

A couple notable capsules on guys that have been discussed here from heyman's trade deadline article.

I feel that if the M's are player at the deadline, it will most likely be as sellers rather than buyers. The trade of Yuni Betancourt signals that they may already be leaning in this direction. As such, they would be seeking to acquire players like Morrow rather than trade them away, unless of course the package in return is overwhelming. Morrow's struggles this year, however, lead me to believ that this will not be the case, menaning that the M's should be better off keeping him.

Corbeau and TheCrew: I think we're mostly on the same page. I thought it was kind of ridiculous that nate suggested that Braddock, Odorizzi, and Periard are better than anything the Red Sox have in there minor league system. What I was attempting to prove with my limited exercise (though it took far more time than I intended) was that those types of players exist in every good system (the Sox and Brewers systems are both very good), and are rarely even in the top half. I never really intended to put down the Brewers prospects (I've mentioned before that I really like Braddock and Odorizzi in particular, among others), but I've become a bit frustrated by the sentiment among some here (as well as among a lot of Red Sox fans) that the 20 yro kid with good stuff and good results in the low minors has even a 50/50 chance of being a successful major leaguer and that this type of player is unique to his/her favorite team's minor league system. I really just wanted to show that other good teams have prospects of comparable quality (and thus, perhaps comparable odds for major league success) in the minors, even if their style and stuff are not exactly comparable. Admittedly ERA, K/9, and BB/9 are a very rudimentary way of evaluating prospects, but I was going for a pretty quick analysis and this are the most readily available predictive stats. Also, I appreciate the welcome that you and others have shown me. I'm honestly not trying to pick fights or be a contrarian, i just think it's fun to have these types of discussions with people with different perspectives.

I think we mostly agree, then, with my one caveat being that, as I see it, most teams have two or three prospects that your logic does not apply to, an "untouchable list" of sorts whose star potential for what will be a reasonable cost makes the team much less likely to trade them. I think Escobar and possibly Gamel fit this description, as well as Buchholz. In the past 5 years or so, we have only seen these types of prospects moved for (off the top of my head) guys like Santana, Miguel Cabrera, and now probably Halladay.

makes sense. my bad . . .

I assume this is directed at me. Are you saying that I overvalue Hardy by calling him a .785-.815 OPS hitter or that I overvalue Buchholz?

Nate, Yes, just because a prospect is not top 50 or top 100 doesn't mean he's a bad prospect . . . it just means he's not among the best. A package to acquire Roy Halladay will, without question, include some of the games BEST prospects, not just good ones. For reference of what an elite prospect looks like, here's BA's midseason top 25 (in order) followed by 25-50 (in alphabetical order) 1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves 2. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins 3. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees 4. Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers 5. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants 6. Buster Posey, c, Giants 7. Carlos Santana, c, Indians 8. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles 9. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles 10. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins 11. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves 12. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks 13. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers 14. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers 15. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds 16. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays 17. Dominic Brown, of, Phillies 18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays 19. Jason Castro, c, Astros 20. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays 21. Brett Wallace, 3b, Cardinals 22. Matt LaPorta, 1b/of, Indians 23. Michael Taylor, of, Phillies 24. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Phillies 25. Michael Saunders, of, Mariners Tim Alderson, rhp, Giants Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays Aaron Hicks, of, Twins Brad Holt, rhp, Mets Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals Austin Jackson, of, Yankees Casey Kelly, rhp/ss, Red Sox Jason Knapp, rhp, Phillies Mat Latos, rhp, Padres Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets Matt Moore, lhp, Rays Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals Derek Norris, c, Nationals Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers Ben Revere, of, Twins Esmil Rogers, rhp, Rockies Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs Nick Weglarz, of, Indians By team (top 25 in parentheses): 5 - Rays (3) 4 - Phillies (3), Indians (2) 3 - Giants (2), Orioles (2), Rangers (2), Rockies 2 - Marlins (2), Braves (2), Yankees (1), Astros (1), Red Sox, Twins, Mets, Royals 1 - D-Backs (1), Brewers (1), Reds (1), Cardinals (1), Mariners (1), Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Nationals 0 - Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, A's, Dodgers Not surprisingly, the Brewers do not have 8 or 9 of the top 50 prospects in baseball, nate, with only Escobar making the cut at #14 (I was honestly surprised Gamel didn't make the top 50, but I don't think they put as much work into this list as the offseason ones) You are correct that I don't have the depth of knowledge that some here have of the Brewers farm system, but I definitely believe that I have a solid understanding of minor league baseball as a whole, such that I understand how prospects in one system relate to thise in another. I'm not going to argue with all of your claims about where different players will end up, which 20 yro once highly-regarded infielders will suddenly learn to hit, or the fact that every moderately successful or highly drafted and projectable minor league pitcher will become a major leaguer. That's just a matter or projection and my opinion is no more valid than yours. What I will do is examine your claim that "Periard, Ordorizzi, and Braddock are better than anything the Red Sox currently have in their system if you want to compare." This takes projection (in the sense that there is no benefit of hindsight) out of the equation and will allow us to focus on where they are as prospects right now. Of course this does include some element of projection, as that's all you can do with prospects. Periard: 22 yro RH starter in A+ (reached AA in 2008) - has been about a 3.25 ERA pitcher outside of a poor debut in AA (small sample). He has only once in his career averaged more than 6 K/9 at a single level over the course of a season, that (6.07) coming in his 112 inning stint in A+ last year. The only other season where he averaged more than 5 K/9 ca,e in R ball in 2006. His control has been decent, averaging only about 2 BB/9 Better player in Red Sox system - Junichi Tazawa: just-turned 23 yro starter in AA - 2.8 ERA with 8 K/9 with decent control - pitched well against major-leaguers in spring training Better player in Jays system - Tim Collins: 19 yro RH reliever in A+ - 1.5-2.5 ERA with about 13 K/9 over career Odorizzi: 19 yro RH starter in Rookie League - 3.5-3.75 ERA with about 7 K/9 and decent control Better Player in Sox system - Stolmy Pimentel: 19 yro RH starter in A (full season) - 3.0 ERA with 8+ K/9 two levels above Odorizzi Better player in Jays system - this is hard, no comparable better players - of course guys like Arencibia, but I'll use Collins again Braddock: 21 yro LH reliever in AA (recently promoted) - strikeout pitcher 10+ K/9 at every level - successful as starter until promoted to A+ in 2008 - has been more effective since converted to a reliever that year in A+ and has dominated A+ hitters in that role and is off to a great start in AA Better player in Sox system (at least comparable due to starting) - Felix Doubront: 21 yro LH starter in AA - 3.5-3.75 ERA with about 9 K/9 over past 2 years Not Better but comparable (in terms of results, Braddock's scouting reports sound better) player in Jays system - Daniel Farquhar: 21 yro RH reliever in AA - sub 2.5 ERA at every stop, but limite dinnings overall - 10+ K/9, but some control problems and this is just with mid-top 10 prospects at best and doesn't include guys like Lars, casey Kelly, Reddick, Kalish, etc. Edit: multiple installments . . .

Alright. you guys know Salome better than I do, so I'll take your word for it.