804Sox

Ummm a top 50, or even 100 prospect in baseball (per BA or whoever . . .) Green, Braddock/Periard/Odorizzi, Dykstra, Lucroy, and Butler do not fit this bill. While many are certainly valuable, every team has prospects like these, and the 2 draft picks Toronto would recieve after holding on to Halladay for another year and a half would likely be "better" than any of these prospects. I like Taylor Green, but his upside seems to be as an above average-good 3B and he is in no way the centerpiece of a trade for the best pitcher in baseball for this years stretch run and all of next year. Same with Braddock. Really nice arm, but his move to the pen limits his upside. Odorizzi and Periard are decent young pitchers with some projection, but are nothing special right now Dykstra doesn't really impress me, nor does the soon-to-be 25yro Butler. Decent results but he's old and the peripherals aren't great Lucroy is another nice piece, particularly if his bat continues to play at AA and above. he does an excellent job controlling the strik zone. In conclusion, Green, Braddock, and Lucroy is a nice start, but your package is missing an elite centerpiece prospect - a top 50-type player who profiles as a possible all-star at his position.

My bad on Salome. I wasn't aware of Salome's glaring defensive deficiencies or the fact that Lucroy had closed the gap and even overtaken Salome in most people's eyes. However, if that is the case, then I am even more sure that Salome is fair value for Sanchez. Sanchez doesn't get on base at a great clip, but sprays doubles all over the park and is one of the best contact hitters in baseball - a perfect fit for the 2-hole. Seems like Salome isn't much of a prospect if he can't stick at catcher, as his bat wouldn't play up much at 1B

Hardy is about 27 years old, and is pretty much a known quantity offensively. As such, whether he was hitting for a .650 OPS or .900 OPS in the first half, I would value him as the .785-.815 OPS hitter that he has proven to be and expect him to hit at that level for the rest of the season. That's how statistics work - there is no magic "regression to the mean" or "correction." If you flip a quarter and get 100 heads in a row, the odds for the next toss are still 50/50. Similarly, whether a baseball player hits .200 or .400 over a first half, if he is a .300-type hitter he should be expected to hit .300 the rest of the way, not necessarily end up at .300 for the year. w.r.t. Iglesias: he's only 19, and while his glove is reported to be elite right now, his bat does not seem to be MLB-ready. Of course I'm only going off what I've read - no insider info here. I've heard that he migh start with the GCL Sox, but could move quickly if he shows he can hit. His bat is kind of an unknown right now, it seems.

That seems like a pretty fair offer for both teams, and would give the Brewers flexibility to trade Escobar and/or Gamel without locking Hardy up long term. The Pirates do have Doumit, but if I'm not mistaken, evereything that I've read says that his work behind the plate (defensively) leaves much to be desired. Unfortunately, his bat really plays up nicely there, but he can play some OF and 1B too while spelling Salome. Edit: Obviously, though, if you're the Brewers this means you're banking on Lucroy as the catcher of the future. I don't know much about him, but from everything I've seen he's the less highly regarded of the two . . . something to consider when dealing for a slightly overpriced MIF that doesn't hit for much power or do too much on the basepaths.

I know what you're missing! A legitimate stud prospect. Any proposals not including Lawrie, Gamel, or Escobar should not be voiced, and honestly it will probably take at least 2 of those 3 plus several other high-ceiling prospects

I agree with your assessment of the Red Sox minor league system. There's a couple guys near the top in Lars, Bowden, Kelly, Reddick, and Kalish who would all probably be too much to give up for Hart, and after that the next 10-15 prospects are mostly high-cieling guys in the low minors - essentially lottery tickets. As far as fair value for Hart, I would probably say someone like Felix Doubront: 21 yro AA lefty with a 3.71 ERA and 8.86 K/9. Quick Scouting Report: Throws 87-91 with a good changeup (79-80 mph, pretty good separation) and a developing curve. He's helped by a deceptive delivery, but still struggles some against LH batters and gets hurt when he leaves the fastball up. He's been young for each level and has pitched pretty well except for an injury filled 2007 season (hernia operation, among other things). I personally wouldn't trade Doubront for Hart (my wariness of Hart is pretty well documented) but it seems like pretty fair value as far as Sox players in the upper minors. I agree Scutaro (note spelling) is better than Nick Green, but don't think that's the type of upgrade you trade away talent to make, particularly with Lowrie returning soon. I also think that Theo's interest in Hart was probably mostly before Ortiz started to rebound, and even then might have only been to get a price check. Drew plays really good D in Right and is an OBP machine, so Hart would be no more than a backup.

I don't know where to begin. The other 3 posters disagreeing with you and that fact that no one has come to your defense should have given you and idea how misguided this proposal is. Katin - a 26yro COF putting up an .870 OPS in AAA is nothing. Every team has players like this, and as such his trade value is essentially zero. His K/BB rate over the past 2 years is 26/207. There's a reason he's still in AAA. He's got nice pop but would be completely exposed. Dillard - same thing. Will turn 26 soon, has average rate stats as a starter, but horrible peripherals. just over 3 K/9 and under 1 K/BB this season. He was better as a reliever last year, but once again is a player that every organization has and has little trade value. Haydel - To early to cast judgement on his career, but if he's the second best player in your package you're not gonna land Halladay Salome - nice catcher, but not the type of player who's the centerpiece of a trade for the best pitcher in Baseball. The key element to trades is that both sides have to agree. As such, you have to give something up to get it in return.

I'll address each point separately: 1) Boston could use a bat and additionally could use a SS to bridge the gap - Sure, the Res Sox could use a bat, but at what cost? Boston is currently sitting in first place in Baseball toughest division, with an offense that is 4th in Runs, 3rd in OPS, 6th in HR, and 4th in OBP - all with enduring a massive slump by Ortiz to start the season, a 3rd string SS getting almost 200 AB, and Lowell missing significant time. As such, I really don't see the Sox as NEEDING a bat. Furthermore, I think the Sox see Lowrie as their bridge-the-gap SS, a player who, ironically, reminds me a bit of Hardy. Anyways, while I like Hardy a lot and would love to see him playing SS in Boston this year, there's no way I part with Buchholz, who looks like he'll be a big part of the Red Sox future success, just to upgrade an offense that at the very least is not hindering the Red Sox playoff chances. 2) I could make the same argument you made about Hardy for Halladay... the Brewers would be huge losers WAR wise in that trade, even if Halladay is an 8 WAR player there's no making up that giving away 6 years of 3 top prospects, just 1 of those players has the potential to be more valuable in their controlled years than the 12 WAR we'd get. - There are 2 differences, as I see it: (1) First, is the situation. The Red Sox are in first place, with a good offense and Lowrie soon to return from injury. the addition of Hardy would likely not be the deciding factor in whether or not the Sox make the playoffs and how they fare therein. The same cannot be said for Halladay and the Brewers. The Brewers are currently a team on the fence. They could make the playoffs, ro could finish below .500 depending on how things fare. With Halladay, they immediately become the team to beat in that division and would have a good shot at the WC if they don't win it. Furthermore, even if they can make the playoffs without Halladay, I really don't see the brewers as World Series contenders without him. Simply put, he's a difference maker on that team, which brings me to my second point, (2) the player. Halladay is a generational pitcher, and arguably the best in the game today. Hardy, who I still like, is not - he is simply a good SS. In my opinion, you don't trade a cost-controlled potential ace (perhaps the most valuable commodity in baseball) for a good SS who may not be a clear difference maker in your temas quest for a championship. I would, however, trade a player like Buchholz for Halladay, an incredible talent and player who will make a difference, particularly for a team like the Brewers. Thus, I would expect the Brewers to be willing to part with Escobar/Gamel/Lawrie, as I would be to part with Buchholz, Lars, Bowden, etc. 3) In your opinion what would be a fair return for a player with a limited MLB track record like Buchholz? - Tough question, because there aren't really that many. Obviously Buchholz alone wouldn't be enough, but I would probably be unwilling to part with Buchholz for anything short of a stud pitcher like Lincecum, Halladay, or Johan (not now). Cost-controlled, top of the rotation pitching is probably the most valuable commodity in baseball. The best teams (except the Yankees and Cardinals) are defined by it. I don't know how much the Garza-Delmon comp applies. that was more like a prospect for prospect from strenght for weakness trade. I'm just shocked that Delmon hasn't panned out, particularly after a promissing rookie year.

If SEA decides to sell, I think the Bedard is a really nice fit for the Brewers, in that he can provide ace-level pitching when healthy, but health concerns and impending FA will not require the Brewers to part with more than one of the prize pieces of their next wave of young talent.

And we wouldn't trade him for Bowden either. Bowden is a safe prospect, but has a limited ceiling. Top Prospect Carlos Santana was traded last year for Casey Blake. Top prospect Gio Gonzalez and 2 other were traded for Nick Swisher after a down year. Jose Tabata and Jeff Karstens plus 2 others for Xavier Nady and Damarso Marte. I'm starting to think I didn't ask for enough. First off, I agree completely with your assessment of Bowden. However, I think you are looking at those trades with the benefit of hindsight. Gio and Santana went from being solid players with upside to legit elite prospects in the time since they were traded, while Swisher's production fell off, and Nady was injured. neither Santana nor Gonzalez were top 10 prospects in their respective systems before being traded (according to BA) which honestly surprised me, particularly in the case of Gio. In any case, Swisher was not coming off a down year - he had just put up an .835 OPS (with an .860 OPS the previous year) in Oakland with a .375 OBP. He was expected to hit 35 HR in Chicago's small park while playing CF. Not bad . . . Tabata had never (and still hasn't) put his tools together, was looking more and more like he'd never hit for power, and was annoying the Yanks with his reported attitude problems (on an side note, dude has like a 45 yro girlfriend, which is a total waste of his professional athlete status). To tie all of that back together, I guess: 1) I personally don't think Hart is as good as Swisher at the time he was traded to CHI or Nady when he was traded to NY. I've never been a big Casey Blake fan, and I didn't like the trade for LA at the time either. and 2) Bowden is regarded more highly as a prospect than Santana or Gio were (although I was pretty high on Gio at the time), and is more of a known quantity than Santana or Tabata were. Point is, Bowden has demonstarted in a small sample size that he can be an average MLB pitcher at worst. That has a lot of value, particularly to a pitching starved team like the Brewers, and, in my opinion more value than Hart brings. When you ask for a top 10 prospect and SS too in Navarro, that makes it even more unbelievable. Honestly as far as Hart vs. Bowden I can see that argument going either way, particularly if you think Hart will rebound to his '07 form, which I don't. I can definitely see the reluctance to add pitchers with limited upside, but when they're cost controlled and major league ready it's different than trading for a low-minors player with a lower cieling. In any case I definitely think that Bowden + Navarro >>> Hart

Look, I've stated previously that I'm a big Hardy fan. I think he's one of the best SS in the league in terms of his combination of offensive production and a good glove. And if you're going to use WAR, that's fine. I agree that last year Hardy was more valuable than Buchholz. Same with the year before, and most likely by the end of this year too. The difference is, and the thing that makes Buchholz so valuable, is that he is cheap now, and under team control for 6 years, whereas Hardy is only under control for 1.5, after which he will be making a lot of money (probably more than the "value" of his winshares, if you trst that equation) The other thing that I think is overstated is Buchholz's struggles at the major league level. He only has 18 starts under his belt and less than 100 innings pitched for his career, so we're definitely working with a small sample size with respect to his production. Furthermore, he has dominated the minors since his demotion and in limited MLB work has already thrown 2 complete games, including a no-hitter, while averaging almost 9 k/9 over his career. This suggests to me that he has the talent not only to be a successful pitcher, but a dominant pitcher at the major league level. He has also reduced his walk rate considerably this year in the minors, perhaps "fixing" the inconsistancy that plagued him most in the majors. Just as a hypothetical, lets say that Hardy hits his prime in the next year and a half and is a 5 war player over that time. He will give the team that owns him 7.5 wins above the replacement player (Nick Green). If Buchholz fails to live up to his expectations, he might only be, on average, a 2 war player (4.50 ERA?) over his 6 years, giving the team 12 wins at a very reasonable cost (he won't make much in arby if he's only a 2 war player). Even if Buccholz shows no improvement, I think the 5-6 years of cost-controlled, league-average pitching is more valuable than 1.5 years of Hardy. (If you don't think average pitching is valuable, just look at the contract you guys gave Suppan . . .) However, like many talent evaluators, I anticipate improvement from Buchholz with the possibility that he becomes a top-of-the-roatation starter. ps. in response to TheCrew, I think Law or Olney or somebody like that mentioned the Buchholz-Hardy rumors in a chat or blog. It was posted in the previous Clay Buchholz thread from a couple weeks ago. Beyond that, he was ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball by BA just a year ago, before he exhausted his prospect eligibility, so that gives an indication of his value too.

I don't doubt that the Sox called about Hart, but I think that if the Brewers demanded Bowden and Navarro it would have been a pretty quick conversation. Yeah, Hart had a really good 2007 and hits a pretty good amount of XBH, but he's got a really long swing, even for a tall player, with a LOT of holes. He's a pretty average outfielder. Also, that inquiry came at a time when Ortiz was essentially a black hole in the lineup. He's still not what he used to be, but he had a 1.062 OPS in June and looks to be turning it around to the point where he will at least not be a liability. Bowden is a top 3 prospect in the Red Sox System - a young 22 yro starter with a track record of success at AAA, with excelent command, and a limited track record of success in the majors. Would the Brewers trade Lawrie for a player of Hart's callibre? No. Of course not. I don't see how some posters here expect such a large return for a player they're disenchanted with and seem to be hoping to get rid of, when they cringe at the thought of giving up a comparable player in a package for Halladay, perhaps the best pitcher in baseball.

I don't see how this makes any sense for the Sox. Scutaro is no better than Nick Green, Lugo, or Lowriem despite the nice season he's having. There's certianly no reason to give up good value for him. Also, Hart could be had cheaper than Bowden (top 75-level prospect and MLB-ready pitcher) and Navarro (I'm really high on him - see him as a Yunel Escobar-type), and probably isn't of so much interest to the Sox other than as a backup (Bay, Ellsbury, and Drew is a pretty good OF). That's a lot to give up and not much to gain just so another team can get the pitcher that the Sox really want.

I don't think the Sox would include Buchholz and Kelly in the same deal, but I think you're on target as far as value. Maybe something like Kelly, Bowden, Doubront, Pete Hissey, and Hunter Jones would be more likely, but whatever, that's not really my point. Unfortunately for the Brewers, I don't really see the Sox being too interested in Fielder. I think they have hopes for Lars at 1B and will likely move Bay to DH in a year or 2 aftere Papi's gone (assuming Bay resigns, I guess). By that time hopefully Reddick, Kalish, or CH Lin will be ready for the OF. I guess Fielder is a definite possibility, but it will depend on a lot of variables that could change over the next couple months.

I agree with this. I've seen posts suggesting that Halladay could be acquired without giving up ANY of Lawrie, Gamel or Escobar, and that it would hurt, beyond that, to give up prospects like Wily Peralta and Dillon or even the perenially underachieving Parra. For ROY HALLADAY! If some of the poster here aren't overvaluing the brewers prospects, then they are certainly undervaluing Halladay, a generational pitching talent whose style suggests he will continue to be effective into the future. Just for reference, Red Sox fans are talking about packages of Bowden, Lars, Reddick, and Masterson; Buchholz, Reddick, Tazawa, Bard; etc. I think that the Jays will, justifiably, be looking at a package of 4 top-100 prospects/young major leaguers, with at least one top-25 level talent, and probably 2 more of thise inside the top 75 or 50. That means at least 2 of Gamel, Lawrie, and Escobar, plus 2 more from a group of players like Salome, Parra, Peralta, etc. I definitely recommend this thread from Soxprospects.com to all interested in the Halladay trade. covers a lot more than just the Sox side of the deal, and, in my opinion, has more comprehensive coverage of the news stories surrounding this rather than just poster proposals and opinions (a lot of that too). An interesting an informative read that will give you guys a valuable and different perspective, as this forum does for me: http://forum-soxprospects.com?topic=4713

Also important to note is that that offense is only going to get better with such a young, dynamic core of Jones, Markakis, Reimold, and Wieters, plus Roberts. They have some pitching on the way too with Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and maybe even Erbe on the way. Could be a scary team in a couple years

Since when does being blocked make you less of a phenom? 25 is hardly too old. Ryan Howard was blocked by Thome in Philly and didn't start the year in the Majors until his age 26 season. Buchholz's problem is that he has options and can be stashed in the minors, unlike guys like Smoltz, Penny, and Wakefield. As I've written previously, Buchholz is not a minor league pitcher, he's a major league pitcher in the minor leagues. Were he in the Brewer's organization he would unquestionably be in the rotation right now, probably as the 2nd or third best starter on the team. Also, I think your comments are telling with respect to the Brewer's leverage in this situation: "Hardy hit a total of 50 HR in 07 and 08 and he's got the kind of swing that he could easily exceed 30 playing half his games in Fenway and he's not yet 27. So you wouldn't be getting some washed up has been." [ . . . ] "I'd make that deal not because I think the Brewers would be fleecing Boston or because Bucholz would make a difference this year (I doubt he would) but because it's time to start the Alcides Escobar era and because I think Hardy's underachieving with Escobar ready to take his job." A bit contradictory. Here you tout Hardy's value, yet indicate that this trade is fair and should be made NOT because Buchholz is a talented player but because the Brewers should GET RID OF HARDY. When we account for your misconception, then, that Buchholz is anything less than an elite pitching prospect (note the word prospect, not saying he's an ace right now), it becomes obvious that Hardy is nowhere near enough of a return for the Sox to consider parting with Buchholz, a sentiment echoed countless times by national sprts and prospecting media outlets.

most circles of Red Sox fans . . .

Doesn't matter if it's true or not, whether the players should be tough enough to handle it or not, etc. The point is, as a leader on the team, Braun should not be calling out his teammates in front of the media. If he wants to do it in the locker room I have no problem. For some players that sort of thing can light a spark under them. Might not work for others. Either way, the media is nto the place for him to voice his opinions about his GM and teammates.

he was hitting triple digits on the stadium guns during the WBC, and definitely looked impressive. Had a sharp breaking ball too. Probably (definitely not, in my opinion) not ready for MLB right now, but showed "flashes of brilliance" against top competition this summer. Looks as legit as any 21yro I've seen . . .

I don't think even Gallardo would be enough to get it done. Probably would need to throw in Gamel or Escobar and some lower level prospects too.

Don't worry . . . he'll be with the Yankees soon . . .

Bill Hall?!?!?!?!?!? Someone send DM Theo's phone number. That wouldn't be the worst deal . . . With Lowell hurt, Lowrie suffering a setback, and Nick Green . . . still Nick Green, the Sox could use a 3rd baseman that also has the versatility to play SS and CF (when Rocco and JD Drew are your backups, fragility becomes a concern). Lugo's defense, in particular, has been really frustrating this year, and I think most fans would be glad to see him leave. The contracts would be about a wash also . . .

I agree. Arizona has a really good, young core. With Haren's below-market contract and Webb coming back next year along with a budding superstar in Just in Upton . . .they's be stupid to trade Haren unless the return was someone like Braun or Gallardo (who the Brewers would be unlikely to trade) In my opinion, Mil doesn't have the pieces in the minors to pull this off. The discussion would have to start at Gamel AND Escobar, plus probably one or more projectable arms like Wily Peralta. Just unlikely . . .

But if your need for a starter becomes apparent 2 weeks before the draft, then you definitely wait, gambling that no one else signs him