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Funketown

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Everything posted by Funketown

  1. Funketown
    His defense makes him look hurt, but it's looked that way for the past two seasons.
  2. Funketown
    Lawrie's is 5% there as well, but get this: it's 11% on the road and 0%! at home. On that site, Cain's is 17% on the road and 5% at home. Cain's, courtesy of minorleaguesplits is 16.7% on the road and 5.1% at home, while Lawrie's at minorleaguesplits is again 0% at home and 10.8% on the road. My bet is that it's something with Huntsville's scorer. If Lawrie has been putting up more like an 11%, that's certainly less worrisome (if that can be trusted).
  3. Funketown
    Cain's is 10.3%. I do think there probably is some difference between the way the data are recorded at minorleaguesplits and the way they're recorded at the major league level, given all of the absurdly low LD percentages. Even taken with a grain of salt, it worries me.
  4. Funketown
    A .262/.332/.437/.769 line from the second youngest player in AA is fine.The slash line looks fine. I'm more worried about his 57:21 K:BB ratio and that his line is fueled by a .349 BABIP. I don't know how accurate it is, but minorleaguesplits lists his LD% is 5.3%, which almost seems like a typo (for reference, according to the same site, Wheeler's LD% is 10.3, Gamel's in 2008 was 20.1, and Green's from this season is 10.6. Again, I don't know how accurate that is, but even if whatever system they have is extremely conservative in ruling line drives, there is reason to worry at that percentage, unless it is either an error or there is reason to believe that for some reason the scorers have depressed his LD% further than they should have.
  5. Funketown
    The Marlins' AT&T trivia question was "Who are the only two Brewers to start an All-Star game". The answer was Robin Yount and Ryan Braun. I guess they've forgotten about Sheets as well. These Marlins announcers are brutal. One just convinced the other that both leagues of the NPB use the DH.
  6. Funketown
    Am I the only one here that is really starting to worry about Lawrie? I know he's only 20, but he has really struggled in Huntsville.
  7. Funketown
    Neither Hart nor Prince, who will likely receive nearing $16-18MM in arbitration, have very much excess value. I'd be thrilled if they could get a couple decent pitching prospects (one who profiled as a 3/4 in AAA and one with a higher ceiling in A or so) for Fielder and a low end prospect for Hart.
  8. Funketown
    I knew Johnson was good, but that first inning was ridiculous. Hopefully he's out of the game within 5-6 innings...
  9. Funketown
    It's not Bush's results that are reason for concern necessarily, it's everything outside of his ERA that is downright ugly: 4.68 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9. There was a guy who pitched last year and had the following peripherals (4.45 K/9, 4.12 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9). There is no reason to expect Bush to perform any better than a 5.00 ERA down the road, and I could very well see him being more in the 5.25 - 5.75 range. As for the two bad starts defense of Bush, look at just about any pitcher at this point and see what taking out their two worst starts does to their numbers. For instance, Randy Wolf has a 3.38 ERA without his worst 2 starts. Gallardo has a 1.69 ERA without his worst two starts.
  10. Funketown
    Bush has been as bad if not worse than Parra over the last season and a half. Parra is under team control beyond this year. Parra has a higher ceiling than Bush. I don't understand the complaints about this move. Bush's peripherals this year are pretty much identical to Suppan's last year. Manny is as frustrating as probably any pitcher the Crew has had over the past 5 years, but Bush has been Suppan-esque this season. If Suppan had done exactly what Bush had done this season, people would be calling for his head.
  11. Funketown
    TH reports, http://www.jsonline.com/b...rts/95544709.html. This may either be temporary due to Bush's blister or (temporarily) permanent. With the way Bush has been throwing the ball, I'm hoping it's the latter, and that Parra can finally capitalize. Mods, feel free to move this if you feel the need; perhaps a new rotation thread would be a good call.
  12. Funketown
    Weak sauce. I really thought Heether could have been a decent MLBer. Did I miss him being removed from the 40-man when Gamel was brought back? Also, Zaun hasn't been moved to the 60-day yet as far as I know, so why wouldn't they just move him to the 60-day? Maybe I'm missing something, or DM just thinks Heether will never pan out.
  13. Funketown
    The problem is that if Hart is not going to be worth $6MM next year, nobody in their right mind would give up a decent prospect. Now, it is entirely possible that he is worth $6MM to some other team but not to the Brewers, but any value Hart has this season or next in excess of his contract is minimal. The only way the Brewers get a prospect that I would be excited about straight up for Hart is if some GM makes a dumb deal, and I'm not saying that won't happen, I just think we need to temper our return demands here (as well as with Fielder).a
  14. Funketown
    It's not terribly common for a guy who is really an all around excellent baseball player for two full seasons to completely fall off a cliff like Hardy did without health problems. Hopefully he gets it back together, but he just might be a journeyman type good field/no hit SS. So far, this has been a nice trade for Melvin. CarGo has been decent, not a great deal better than anybody expected, but the salary relief from Hardy tips the scale on this trade in Melvin's favor.
  15. Funketown
    Thanks. That sounds a bit like hockey, basically where the refs/umps go through the minors/college/etc. before being called up to the big leagues. Sounds like a long road, so good luck.
  16. Funketown
    My issue with this whole "Sell high" notion is that most like other teams know that we're "selling high". I think that for the most part, GM's are smart enough to know not to pay a premium for a player that is playing above his head. With all of the information that is freely available about MLB players, there is little reason to believe that GM's will be able to get a premium for 'selling high', as other GM's have the exact same information at their disposal (ignoring bizarre things, like undisclosed injuries, which usually negate a deal anyways). This isn't to say that Hart's value hasn't risen due to his power surge. I think it's reasonable to project Hart at something like .260/.320/.480/.800, while I would have said something like .250/.310/.430/.740 before the hot streak. The big issue is Melvin does not have a huge comparative advantage in the trade market for Hart, unless there is something he knows which other GM's don't.
  17. Funketown
    To be fair, I think a lot of organizations have this type of "depth"; none of our filler arms are really any more than replacement level pitchers. Here's what I have, without taking into concern anything other than each pitcher's ability at this moment: 1) Todd Coffey 2) John Axford 3) Zach Braddock 4) Latroy Hawkins (assuming he can come back healthy) 5) Carlos Villanueva 6) Trevor Hoffman 7) Manny Parra 8) David Riske 8) Kameron Loe 9) Marco Estrada I didn't include guys that I view as starters, and I only included Parra because he has just been removed from the rotation. Realistically, with Axford and Braddock, I like the way the back end of the pen looks for the coming years. I still think that Hawkins is a good (albeit way overpaid) reliever, as nothing about his 11.2 innings is out of the ordinary except for his results, which are fueled by a .421 BABIP (.315 career) and 45.9 LOB% (70.6% career). If either Kintzler or Wooten can prove to be a solid major league pitcher, I like the pen even more.
  18. Funketown
    I guess I just don't feel like the Brewers necessarily owe it to Hoffman to let him do that. If it's not worth anything to the Brewers or Attanasio, why should they? They gave him the opportunity to reach 600 saves, but he has performed miserably. If he really wants it, I'm sure someone would be willing to sign him to a minor league deal this offseason. If a player reaches a milestone like this solely because a team keeps throwing him out there even though he is not their best option to win, is this milestone even worth anything? And as for the notion that going from 70 to 75 wins does not have value to an organization, I'd rather not crunch the numbers on this (as predicting revenue in professional sports is a mess), but I'm sure that if you asked any owners if they thought they'd sell more tickets in the upcoming season, holding all other things constant, after a 70 win season or a 75 win season, they would answer that they would sell more tickets after the 75 win season.
  19. Funketown
    Agreed. Umpires make a lot of bad calls, but it is not that easy to be a good umpire. If it were, you'd see better umpiring at the world's highest level of baseball. I don't know how much training it takes (I'd assume just an absurd amount of time in the minors and college), but having the ability to tell whether a ball was in or out of an imaginary box 95% of the time, or accurately determining whether a runner was safe or out on a bang-bang play 90% of the time, is not something I, or many others, could do, even with immense training.
  20. Funketown
    What do you base that sentiment on? I think the club needs to do their best to finish the year with as good of a record as they can. Do you remember that season the Packers started 4-8 and then finished 4-0? I seem to remember the common fan saying "Yeah we were 8-8, but we finished 4-0 in our last four games". If this club can somehow claw their way back to .500 by the end of the season, I think you will see a lot of casual fans saying the same thing. "Sure, we sucked out of the gate, but once we got everything figured out, we looked like a pretty good team". If they don't, you'll see casual fans saying something along the lines of "We sucked last year, and we'll probably suck this year". Marketing is important, but not nearly as important as the overall quality of the experience a fan gets when attending the ballpark or watching the game on TV. Fans like to see milestones, perfect games, 500 foot home runs, etc. I just don't think the average fan really cares about Hoffman's 600th, and comparing this to 3,000 hits or 500 homers (or 900 homers, for that matter) is like comparing apples and oranges. When all is said and done, 600 saves just doesn't mean that much to me, and I don't think it does to that many people anymore.
  21. Funketown
    My concern is that it will alienate an already frustrated fan base. At this point, everybody knows that putting Hoffman out in the 9th inning is not a good decision. If fans don't care about 600, or they value a few additional (being extremely generous, going from 70 to 75) wins, then there is reason to believe that letting Hoffman get his 600th could cost this team a pretty significant amount of money in both the short and long term. And from a business standpoint, I don't think going from 70 to 75 wins is pointless. Fans largely determine how much they pay attention to the next season (and in turn, spend on that next season) based on how good they think the team will be next year. To the average fan, the number of games the team won the previous season is a significant factor in determining how good they think the team will be in the upcoming season. Maybe Hoffman's 600th is worth something (independent of team earnings) to Attanasio. That's not unreasonable to believe, as we've certainly owners who make decisions that are clearly utility maximizing, rather than profit maximizing. However, I think that the cost of letting Hoffman get that 600th save is quite large, and Attanasio will not be willing to lose that much revenue in order to enjoy watching Hoffman get #600 as a Brewer.
  22. Funketown
    I don't know, and I don't think many other fans have a clue. If anybody thinks that Hoffman getting 600 on a team that wins 70 games will be more profitable than Hoffman not getting 600 on a team that wins 75 games, I'd be surprised. Fans do not care about an insignificant milestone for a struggling player who has only been with the team for 1.3 seasons. They might have cared if that were the situation for either Yount or Molitor, and perhaps even in the future with Braun. If anyone thinks this solidifies Hoffman's position as the greatest closer (or even reliever) of all time, they should think again. Rivera has been so much more dominant (2.03 ERA, .4 HR/9, 4.21:1 K/BB for Rivera vs. 2.87 ERA, .8 HR/9, 3.73:1 K/BB for Hoffman) than Hoffman over the course of his career that there should be no debate.
  23. Funketown
    It was a bad call, but none of the blame would fall on Joyce if MLB had done the right thing and implemented instant replay for calls like this. It would have taken 15 seconds to overturn and give the guy his perfect game. I don't see who the winners are in this whole situation. Jim Joyce, who may well be a solid umpire (I'll admit I have no idea how good he is) now looks like a clown. Gallaraga loses a piece of history. Hopefully Mr. Selig watched the Stanley Cup Finals game tonight.
  24. Funketown
    Well, this is the same marketing department who decided it would be a good idea to sell tickets for Roy Halladay's already completed perfect game. What can the club lose by selling those tickets (besides sounding silly)? I just think it will be interesting to see which tickets sell hotter, the premium seats or the nosebleeds. Personally, I don't see the allure of having an unused ticket from a perfect game, but if I were a memorabilia collector I might feel differently. Heck, if they sell 1000 of these, that's an easy $15,000.
  25. Funketown
    That's impressive power from Kottaras. With 5 homers, 25 walks, and 13 strikeouts in 99 PA's, this guy should be called (2/3)TO
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