Funketown

It's probably about time we start a "Jeff Baker: why is he still around?" thread. Not a bad guy to give a few at-bats. He obviously isn't terribly good, but he's a utility guy, what do you expect?

Dempsey to Spurs. Honestly with the mess that Liverpool has been the last few years, I would rather see him with Spurs. They're a clear contender for finishing in the top four this season. I'm assuming Hugo Lloris will be an upgrade over Brad Friedel, though I know nothing about Lloris other than the fact that lots of clubs regard him highly. Dempsey will reunite with Dembele as well. Modric is obviously a huge loss, and Van der Vaart a significant loss. I've never really cheered for a particular club, but maybe I'll have to pick Tottenham.

I'd love to know what was going through the head of the guy who named them when he decided on scuppernong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuppernong

hawing, I'd chalk that up to nothing more than an odd choice of words. I love muscadine/scuppernong grapes, and they're really the only solace I take when peach season is finished. But, their seeds are really annoying, as can be their thick skins. It seems like all the best fruits are either he most difficult to eat or prohibitively expensive, or both: cherries, mangoes, scuppernongs, pomegranates, berries, etc...

I could see projecting Marcum to give 150 innings next season. I think the odds of Marcum giving a team 200 innings next season aren't horrible (assuming his injury today isn't too serious), but obviously the odds of him throwing only 100 innings or 50 innings are also pretty high. But maybe that's not right, and maybe it should be more like 120 or 130. He certainly will fall into the category of a high risk signing; if he stays healthy he can be a solid 3.50 ERA pitcher. I just have no clue what the price on Marcum will be this offseason. The Brewers have the informational advantage, so hopefully they make the right play on Marcum.

Loe and K-Rod warming up in the bullpen. Roenicke really wants to give Weeks and Braun a chance...

They really ought to blow this lead carefully so Braun and Weeks can each get another AB. If Braun "singles" in his next AB, he should just keep running and hope they forget to throw the ball back into the infield.

Braun currently has a 169 wRC+. McCutchen is next in the NL at 159. If this were a playoff team and none of the suspension garbage had ever happened, he would be the leader in the NL MVP race. So, by how much must he outperform the second best player in the NL to win the award? He leads the league in HR by 8, ISO, OPS, wOBA, SLG, WAR, and pretty much any other three letters you can string together.

Right, and it's not like there could have been a bidding war. If the Red Sox had sent those three to the Dodgers for nothing and chipped in ~$50MM or so, it still might have been a good deal for the Red Sox.

The Brewers have had two of the ten or so most productive hitters in the NL this season in Ramirez and Braun. Right now the MVP discussion should really be between Braun and McCutchen. Given the fact that McCutchen lead the Pirates to contention you have to think that if he finishes the season with numbers even close to as good as Braun, he'll win the MVP.

If I remember correctly the Crawford deal was pretty widely criticized as an overpay, as was the Lackey deal. I think the Beckett deal was viewed as a moderate overpay and the AGon deal a pretty good contract for both sides.

Martin Skrtel made one of the worst back passes I'd ever seen today, putting Carlos Tevez in one on one with Pepe Reina. Tevez would score the tying goal costing Liverpool a much needed two points at Anfield. Luis Suarez also scored on a perfectly struck ball on a set piece about 5 yards outside the box. Real Madrid has now dropped five points in only two matches. Last season they only dropped 14 points all season!

Uh, hello?

Blancofan - you're right, Crawford is expected to return early next season.

[sarcasm]I disagree. It was an average streak in the midst of a six year long cold streak.[/sarcasm]

Okay, who had Swansea City atop the standings after two weeks? I'd love to see one of the mid table teams like Everton of Fulham somehow nab a spot in UCL. I'm not sure Fulham has much of a chance to do that without Dempsey (with Dempsey it was already a long shot), but Everton looks really good so far. I'd still peg the odds on Everton finishing in the top four at 2-4%, but stranger things have happened.

The Wells trade was pretty similar to throwing $60MM down the toilet. Everybody except the Angels front office realized Wells' production would be pretty close to replacement level, at best average. Paying $260MM for these players without any prospect return is probably at least $60MM too much. Sending them a decent group of players as well makes this trade pretty ludicrous. So, while this trade has a higher probability of paying off for the Dodgers (basically Crawford needs to come back and be an elite player again, the Gonzalez and Beckett contracts aren't too cumbersome), it's also not unlikely that these guys end up only contributing about $100MM of value on the field over the course of these contracts (Crawford can't really recover, Beckett is an average SP, and Gonzalez is a good but not elite 1B if he doesn't get his power stroke back). I'm not sure which is worse, but I'm leaning toward the Wells trade.

This is correct. Crawford is having Tommy John surgery. I read it was 8-9 months for a hitter, which puts him coming back around May or so. Ah okay, I thought it was more of a 12 month recovery, but it makes sense if it's a bit less for position players. So maybe that's what the $12 million represents, because that's about 100 games of Crawford's salary and that's about what is missed. Now that it would make a difference if the $12 million were for tolerating Nick Punto, but maybe that's how they came up with the number. I really hope this is how the "new" Dodgers operate. Gonzalez has a good shot at outperforming the contract, but he's already 30 years old and with 6 years/$127 million remaining he's going to have to find his power stroke again to make it worthwhile. Crawford is pretty much an albatross at this point. What would he get on the open market, something like 1/$15 or 3/$30 at this point? Beckett will probably be almost worth the contract as he isn't owed that much, and maybe he's a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the NL West. If the Red Sox got nothing in return and sent about $50MM to the Dodgers, they'd probably still be happy with this trade (that's pegging Gonzalez and Beckett are getting market wages, Crawford at $50MM above his market wage, just eyeballing things). Webster is considered a top 5 prospect in the Dodgers system and he's been very effective in AA this season. I'd never heard of Jerry Sands but in ~500 PA's for their AAA club he has a ~.900 OPS this season. I don't know how great the park effects are out there, but he seems like a solid pickup. De Jesus is a decent 2B prospect. If Crawford cannot recover from his injuries and Gonzalez does not continue to hit as well as he has historically, this trade will look absolutely horrendous for the Dodgers. It already looks horrible, and I don't think anybody outside of ESPN and the Dodgers' front office thinks this trade was anything but dumb from the Dodgers' perspective. Red Sox fans should be thrilled right now.

I posted this in the MLB news thread but I might as well post it here too. Here's what I have on the payroll the Dodgers are taking on, not including this season, and their Zips projections just for fun: Crawford: 5 years, $102.5 million, .283/.323/.446. Gonzalez: 6 years, $127 million, .301/.369/.504. Beckett: 2 years, $31.5 million, 3.86 ERA/ 4.04 FIP. Punto: 1 year, $1.5 million, .229/.327/.271. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are picking up any of these contracts. Crawford won't even be able to play next season as far as I know. Gonzalez's power has been way down ever since leaving San Diego. To me this trade looks to be comically bad for the Dodgers. Am I missing something or is this just a horrible horrible trade? Sounds like Boston is only sending LAD about $12 million.

Here's what I have on the payroll the Dodgers are taking on, not including this season, and their Zips projections just for fun: Crawford: 5 years, $102.5 million, .283/.323/.446. Gonzalez: 6 years, $127 million, .301/.369/.504. Beckett: 2 years, $31.5 million, 3.86 ERA/ 4.04 FIP. Punto: 1 year, $1.5 million, .229/.327/.271. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are picking up any of these contracts. Crawford won't even be able to play next season as far as I know. Gonzalez's power has been way down ever since leaving San Diego. To me this trade looks to be comically bad for the Dodgers. Am I missing something or is this just a horrible horrible trade?

Isn't that like $400MM in payroll the Dodgers could be taking on? They obviously know more than we do, but Crawford and Beckett look like bad contracts, and Gonzalez is owed a huge amount. We'll have to wait to hear how the $ work out, but for now, ... wow...

SRB - If that stands for Stevie Ray Braun I'm highly impressed. Here's what I've got: Gallardo - Fiers - Marcum (1 year deal) - Estrada - Rogers If they can get 150 innings of healthy Marcum for $10MM, that's probably a pretty solid rotation. Of course, we don't really know how healthy Marcum is or how willing the Brewers are to sign him to this type of deal, or how willing Marcum is to sign such a deal! Still though, I'm optimistic about the rotation.

It can't and won't be Ransom. He satisfies one condition (he's not very good) but to be the Brewerfan.net Hated Player of the Season a player needs to be the type of guy that has gotten far too many chances in recent years, proven he's horrible, and clings to the roster simply due to being a "veteran" who gives good at-bats, whatever that may mean. For example, Kotsay was really bad from 2007 to 2011, but he got about 300 PA's per season. Yuni was horrible, and everybody knew it, but for some reason or another it took until this season for somebody to decide he didn't deserve 500 PA's. Izturis was mostly out of the league due to injuries, but he still seemed to get by on only the fact that he is a "grizzled veteran who gives good AB's". Ransom is a 36 year old journeyman who until this year had never gotten over 100 PA's in a season, and now he's gotten a bit of a chance to at least hang out on a MLB roster. He might not be very good, but he's spent so many years toiling in the upper minors that I hope he does well enough to at least find a position as a utility infielder somewhere.

I'm betting the folks who come up with these projections do have some way to measure this, but that they don't publish it online. I would find that interesting as well, but for now I'll just go by the conventional wisdom that we should expect inexperienced players as a group to deviate from their projections a great deal more than highly established players.