HiAndTight

We have come a long way, but I don't think anyone is talking about how far over 90 mil we're going. More like how far over 80 mil at this point. From eerything Melvin and Tom H. have said recently it doesn't sound like that will be changing. I disagree and believe that this year given the extenuating circumstances we'll be over 90 million dollars based on what Melvin has said. However, this isn't the point at all. If you'd feel more comfortable saying we're at 86-87, whatever number you believe we'll end up at, fine. 27 million to 87 million is a dramatic and significant difference in a realitively short period of time and far more pertinent than difference between 87 and 92 million.

Well, as Bruce just said, Wolf's salary this year is roughly 5.25 million, so take 4 million away from that total, and then they said they allocate 2 million for mid-season callup's placing us at about 89.25, plus the 1 million for the catcher. So 90.25 total given those moves. In any event, just think about when Payne resigned? We were in the midst of cutting our payroll to what, 27 million dollars? Now just 7-8 years later, however long it's been, we're discussing how far over 90 million we're going to end up going into the season. That in and of itself is awesome. As far as Riske goes, the fact that he's suppose to be ready by Spring Training, and able to pitch again this year gives me pause that we've got any chance to recoup any of that money based on his insurance policy. I'm hopping he can come back this year and become the pitcher he's been in the past rather than hoping to get the 4 million back as I just don't see it meeting the criteria.

And this was the lowest total since the 1998 season. Also, I don't know where you get he's only capable of a 5.30 ERA. Again, worst ERA since leaving KC and 2nd worst ERA since 1999. To take the guys worst year ever when he was injured for a big chunk of it and say this is all he can possibly do really isn't fair. He's not a stud, he's not a very good pitcher, but he's not THIS bad.

I don't believe this is what ''crew07'' is saying, that luck doesn't play a large role in baseball. I think he's trying to say that other things play a larger role and when something can't be explained, you can't just chalk it up to "luck". To expand on that point, does anyone believe that if a pitcher threw nothing but 85 MPH BP fastballs, he's going to have a incredibly high BABIP? I think the answer to that is obvious, and then by extension, you can't simply chalk up any pitcher who carries an inflated BABIP to bad luck. Don't get your opinion confused with fact because many people completely disagree with you and they just aren't wrong because you disagree with it. I must confess this has always been a pet peeve of mine, and something that I run into a lot. For instance when discussing Carlos Villanueva........

I agree, but knowing the general opinion of the board about Gamel and his various defensive metrics, I didn't bother to make this argument, but he looked worlds better at 3rd than I thought he would and than it sounded like he would look according to scouts. I wish McGehee would be the one getting dealt, but we shall see. I think Gamel would be an outstanding 1st basemen by the way in the event that we're actually left with two quality 3B(or 3 when Mr. Green comes up as I'm a big fan of his as well).

I see nothing "haha" about that. In fact, that's a vile, disgusting, reprehensible suggestion that you should be punished for even making us think about!

Not trying to be sarcastic here, but this leads me to believe that you're just not very high on Nick Swisher and you're trying to justify why the numbers do not support your opinion of him. I would love Nick Swisher. Gives you a very, very good #2 hitter in front of Braun and Prince, gives you another guy who can put up a .375 type OBP, and 3 of his last 4 years have been outstanding. Hell, maybe Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan? I have absolutely no idea actually, and doubt that'd work. If it DID however, you could deal for a Derek Lowe and be set! And then re-set your X-Box if it doesn't work out!

I really don't think you can chalk it up to luck when a guy has had fairly substantial stretches in which he has been completely dominant. And perhaps he actually has been used poorly? As far as not having success since then, sure he has. Last year was the first substandard year he's had in the big leagues, and even at that, he was untouchable for periods of time. Anyway, I don't think he does a whole lot for you in your pen. I think he's far better served starting the season in AAA as a starting pitcher. And frankly, if he was another Dave Bush, I'd happy. Dave Bush is a pretty solid pitcher, and would provide very nice depth for a low salary. I don't see that as a knock against Villy whatsoever.

And I stand by what I said that I think he could become a good starting pitcher. My point is that I believe his change has the potential to be quite a bit more than a "decent" pitch, his curve can also be a tick better than average and he's got an average fastball in terms of stuff. I'm not sure what you want out of a starting pitcher, but nobody is calling him a frontline guy. Moreover if all you go off of is his history, then you never give pitchers a chance to progress. This isn't a 32 year old 10 year vet, he's still a young pitcher who's bounced back and forth for the last couple years.

The problem is, it's counter intuitive to believe that BABIP isn't a matter of luck, but rather a result of throwing meetballs, but the fact is, when you see enough evidence to tell you that's really not the case, at some point you have to succomb to that evidence.

Well, I think the issue is more the established guy vs the first year guy who's a little bit better. I think it's clear if the incumbent is the superior pitcher, then you go with him. And to Bruce, I completely agree. Last year Yo was a guy who hadn't been up for a full year. I didn't like the reason, but I can understand it. This year there is nothing, no reason to not start him opening day.

He's a good guy, he was a workhorse for us for a couple years winning 18 games, and was an all-star. And before someone tells me how his wins aren't important, the point here is that when a pitcher wins 18 games, that stands out, and when he has a 2nd TJ, there's always going to be a focus put on him hoping he can return to form. Plus he deserves the chance to try.

But he doesn't locate. CV as a starter is a slighty improved Suppan or a slightly weaker Dave Bush. I don't think we really need another one of those types of guys. He has really struggled late in games as well. Just look at his OPS by time through order. 1st) .686 2nd) .824 3rd) 1.037 I want no part of him going back to beign a starter, he is just way more effective as a RP. He's also only started a hanful of games in the last two years and done so after being in the pen for long periods of times. I don't think there's any mystery that he's not likely to be effective a 3rd time through in those situations. But if he doesn't locate, he's not a good reliever either. I guess I'm not sure what you're saying there. If he doesn't locate, he's not a good pitcher in any manner and we might as well just dump him. I do want him to go back to being a starter. I think we pulled the plug on that too quickly when he was very good early on as a starter.

So hows it going for him? Not sure exactly where to go to find a box score or anything.

I think people can be all too harsh on young pitchers, and even more than that, young left handed pitchers forgetting just how common it is for them to take longer to develop for whatever reason. Parra's biggest problem was himself last year, but he also was clearly a victim of bad luck as well.

I don't agree. I think if Villanueva locates he can be effective in either role. There are plenty of pitchers out there with worse stuff than Villanueva who are starters. Nobody's calling him a #1, 2 or 3, but I think he could definitely be an effective backend guy.

It's not the boards fascination, it's just simple baseball. Cameron was a fantastic defender, he hit for power, carried an OPS around .800 and got on base at a decent clip. There is no mystery here. Great defense at one of the most valuable defense positions+.800 OPS=a very, very valuable player. Now with regard to the changes, I believe Gomez is going to surprise next year. I hope for a .285/.330 type line with better D than Cameron. There's little doubt he'll be a downgrade from Cam, but if he can minimize how big of a downgrade, the upgrades at C and SP'ing could allow for a large net gain.

Yeah, I think in most cases when you bring in another very good pitcher via Free Agency, or trade you should go with the incumbent as your starting pitcher. Puts added pressure on the newcomer. So I'd go with Felix over Lee(plus I think Felix is better). I'd go with Lester over Lackey. Buehrle over Peavy although Peavy's been there for about a half of season. For the Cards, gotta go with Carp. I want to see Gallardo and I think it's time we take the leesh off there. As for the Braves, that one's a little tougher. I would go with Hudson or Lowe to be honest, but I'm a big fan of both.

Wow...that's an awfully negative perspective. First of all, talking about Hawkins. I can understand the line of thought that we paid too much for him. I don't really agree since it's just two years, but I can see it. But he is a guy who's got a career 2.75 ERA in the NL and his career ERA as a reliever is in the mid 3's. He's also coming off a incredible stretch with the Astro's with a 2.11 ERA last year for them, and then a .38 ERA or whatever it was in a small sample at the end of '08. So I think it's pretty clear, salary aside that he's a damn good reliever for this team and he makes us better. AS for Riske, if he's healthy again, I absolutely want him. At the absolute least, I want to see what he's got in Spring Training. People forget, but this is a guy who's been a stud for the better part of his career. He's struggled with injuries in Milwaukee, so I understand people having soured on him, but the bottom line is that when he's been healthy, he's been an effective reliever for pretty much his entire career. Lets not be too hasty on him. Villanueva is in a put up or shut up year. He's been so incredibly dominant at times and then he can turn around and be equally substandard at times. I'd prefer to see him moved back into the starting rotation, start the year in AAA and then come up when we need a starter, or when we can fit him into the swing man spot. But I think it's a bit early to give up on him as well. Bottom line, these three all have the potential and have shown that they can be huge contributors to a BP in their careers. Riske and Hawkins have all shown the ability to be 2.50-ish relievers for a year.

Yes I realize that which was sorta my point. I think the Brewers are going to try and keep Lorgren. I also do not believe that breaking camp he will be one of the 7 most effective relievers, so this is one of those few instances in which I'd be an advocate of the better pitcher starting the year in AAA and going with Lofgren. Of course if he pulls an Evan Fredrickson and cannot find the zone and is all over the place and offers absolutely no hope of being an effective reliever for the Milwaukee Brewers, then you have to try and work out a trade with the Indians in order to keep him, or you have to offer him back, take back your 25K and go on your way. But again, not to belabor the point, but if lets say you have Axford and he's slightly better, I'm going to go with Lofgren for the BP and hope he can develop into the arm everyone t hought he would a couple years ago.

It's really not "unrealistic" that Prince Fielder is not on the team in 2011 for one reason or another. Blowing out his knee isn't realistic, but being traded is definitely realistic.

The idea of trading what little SP depth we have for more OF depth doesn't make any sense to me with the present construction of our team. I guess I'm of the opinion that we can fairly easily replace the innings Suppan gives you, and that we don't have a lot of OF depth. I certainly understand that position and I was just on another thread talking about how people are a little TOO hard on Suppan. Anyway, I really, REALLY don't have strong feelings either way on this one. To be honest, Byrnes may be my least favorite baseball player in the game today and you're talking about dealing one black hole for another. I think that Byrnes on our team could provide some value and could be useful given the question marks surrounding Gomez. Not that he'd be a 3-4 win guy or anything outrageous.

In all fairness to Jeff Suppan, that was the worst season of his career. In the previous 11 seasons, his low excluding last year was 177 IP.

A couple reasons why I don't believe this would work. 1st-I don't believe the Pirates would want Corey Hart who's already entered arbitration and is getting significant pay raises now. 2nd-They have Andrew McCutchen as one of their OF'ers, they've got Garrett Jones as another one, and then a bunch of talented young players who they'll give a shot to such as Lastings Milledge who despite being well traveled is still very young and very talented. 3rd-They have a pretty good young pitcher who's still cost controlled. I don't think they'd be in a hurry to deal him, particularly within the division.

I don't know. My point was that I think it'd take more than Gamel to make the trade work. I suppose Gamel plus Caleb Gindl would possibly be a deal ATL MAY consider. Gamel+Rivas? Gamel and more than just a throw in. I still don't see why Atlanta would want to make the trade though.