HiAndTight

Escobar isn't even close to Weeks, Hart will likely be better in 2010, McGehee should be better, and I think Gomez will be even money to be better than Alcides next season too. That statement is just way off-base. Somewhere down the road, Escobar might develop into the team's second or third-best hitter, but he's not even close to that yet.If Escobar ends up this teams 3rd best hitter one of two things will have happened. 1-He ends up greatly exceeding nearly all expectations(including those of Mr. and Mrs. Escobar). 2-We look back up on the '02 Brewers remembering the "good 'ole days". I really, really like Escobar, but I agree with you. Weeks is almost certainly going to be much, much better. Hart, McGehee, Zaun, Gamel will all likely be much better. If Escobar gives us a .675 OPS and a .275/.315 line next year I think that'll be considered a overwhelming success.

Let me preface this by saying I dont believe either should hit at the top of the order. With that said, I think Escobar is clearly the lesser of two evils. He hit .303 last year with a what, .335 OBP in a a small sampling? Put up OBP's of .365 and .355 roughly the last two years in AA and AAA. The point here? A small sample size of good numbers is preferable to a large sample size of BAD numbers.

You guys act as though they just brought in Jason Kendall to play Left Field. They brought in a guy who hit .308/.365 last year in 145 games. Now I realize this was in around maybe 420 PA's, but still, he's a very good fit for that team. Even if he does what he's done the previous several years and puts up a line of .290/.335, that's really not nearly as bad a move as the general feeling on this board would suggest. With regard to Alex Rios, his deal which I believe was roughly 7/70 is obviously a big deal and a big risk, but I'll go on record right now as saying he's going to be a very good player over the life of that contract. In the 3 years prior to last year he had OPS' of .798, .865, .854. I realize he had an awful year last year, but he's one of the most talented players in the game. But Kenny Williams seems to be one of those GM's where nobody likes the moves when he makes them, but he ends up with the last laugh.

A couple more thoughts. In my honest opinion, this is the most well rounded and deepest bullpen that Doug Melvin has ever assembled. A few years ago with the Mota's, Gange's, Torres and that group, they had a ton of upside, but just so much question marks and downside. Eric Gange still had really very, very good stuff, but a complete inability to locate when he had to. In any event, I think this pen has everything you'd like with the lone exception of a hard throwing dominating closer. Of course we do still have arguably the best closer in the history of baseball who is coming off one of his better seasons. We've got power arms galaroe with Coffey, Hawkins, Axford. We've got a couple of guys who can go multiple innings in Villanueva, Vargas, Narveson. We've got a plethora of talented lefties. In putting together the group that breaks ST'ing however, I think really with so many pitchers really so evently matched, I'd place a premium on keeping as many good arms as possible. If that means that you go through Spring Training and you maybe keep the 9th and 10th best guys over the 7th and 8th best guys because you can store the other two in the minor leauges, I'd actually be in favor of it. And I think that'll be a very real possability with Axford and perhaps Villanueva for example(though I'm not sure how it'd work with him starting out in the minors). I've long wanted Carlos to go back to his role as a starter as that's what I feel he's most suited to do. Anyway; Locks SP'ers(since who starts has a direct impact on the BP) Yovani/Wolf/Bush/Suppan/Parra BP Hoffman Coffey Hawkins Stetter Good bets Vargas(Frankly, I don't know the details of his contract, so Bruce may be correct in putting him in as a lock based upon that) Beyond that, I think we have just such a wide range of guys that it's very, very difficult to predict what will happen. John Axford- As impressive an arm as he has, he's going to have to be significantly better than others in order to start in the big leagues given our ability to store him in AAA. Carlos Villanueva- Not certain if he can be sent down without having to be passed through and if that's the case I don't believe he'd make it. I'd like to see him starting in AAA so that at the least he can be a swing man and the most he can be a big league starter should the need arise(I should say when). So you definitely don't risk losing Carlos, he's too good IMO. Chris Narveson- He was also very impressive last year and as a former top prospect, I don't believe it was a fluke. I think he's got a legit big league arm and brings a great deal of value to the org as a potential starter/lefty out of the pen. Zach Braddock- To me this one is rather obvious as there is simply no need to start him out in the big league pen this early. With options left and a slew of others viablre candidates it doesn't make sense. David Riske People forget that he was a very solid pitcher virtuatlly his entire career. I believe he will start out in extended ST'ing, and then pitch in the minors and by the time he's ready to come back, end of May/Early June IMO, he'll have been given ample time to get back into the swing of things. Could really provide a big boost for us. Chuck Lofgren- The one I'm most excited about. He's got big time potential, and I believe the potential to help us in the very immediate future. Of course he likely will not be one of the 7 best to break camp, so this is a case of a pitcher who is better likely having to start in AAA. Chris Smith- He's a guy who does have some value. I'm again, not exactly certain on his situation. If he has an option left so that he's able to be sent down without passing through waivers, however at the start of the year, teams are generally pretty set with their BP's, so I don't think that it's a very big concern. I don't think he'd get claimed. If I had my druthers, I'd take Hoffman/Hawkins/Coffey/Stetter/Lofgren/Vargas/Narveson and start Villanueva, Axford, Braddock, Riske and the rest in the minors. It leaves you plenty of protection when injuries come up and gives you a very formidable backend, it gives you two viable left handers, it gives you two guys in Vargas and Narveson who can go extended, and it allows you to leave Lofgren up in the BP, something I believe is a priority. Not above winning games of course, but important all the same.

I think it's very unlikely that Jeff Suppan starts the season anywhere but in the starting rotation and I wouldn't be shocked to see him start the first series of the season. I think people want him to pitch out of the pen, so they predict that he will. With his contract, and the Brewers previous reluctance to do so, I just don't see any reason they'd throw him into the pen right out of the shoot. I just don't think it's realistic in my opinion. I hope it is though.

I know Bill James is usually very optimistic for hitters, but this looks like extreme optimism for pitchers as well, which doesn't seem to make sense. I'd say this is pretty much the absolute best we could hope for and I'd be shocked if Bush, Parra, and Suppan put up those ERAs. A 4.22 ERA, by the way, would have been 7th in the NL in '09. The thing is, I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit of all three or any of the three significantly out-performed those numbers. Manny Parra coming into last year was a guy many of us thought could be a viable #2 if not this year, down the road. Now after an awful 2009 season I think people are a little bit too down on Manny. I think he's the type of kid that if he has a good ST'ing and a good start to the season, you could see just breaking out and putting up a fantastic season. Dave Bush is one of those guys who's likely never going to be as good as his peripherals, but still has the potential to easy surpass the 4.29 ERA projected for him. AT some point in his career he's going to put together a good season, start to finish and finish with an ERA in the 3.00's. And while Jeff Suppan has been a major disappointment and is an atrocious contract, the fact remains he's still not quite as bad IMO as some make him out to be on here. I put no value into his ability to eat innings or his leadership ability. That said, I think the simple fact that some would be so surprised to see him put up a 5.09 ERA is evidence that he's a little bit underrated on here. In the end, I could see a lot of different scenarios with those three pitchers. I think Manny Parra will meet or beat those projections, Bush and Suppan I don't know about. Bush I would guess ~4.50-ish, and Suppan I think will be right around that 5.00 range. And honestly, with our bullpen who I believe will be one of the top 2-3 in the NL, it all comes down to Wolf and Gallardo. Wolf I expect a 4.10-ish ERA from and Yo I think is ready to establish himself as a Cy Young contender and will be under 3.00.

When you see the rumored traded of Smoak and Feliz to Florida for Josh Johnson a pitcher who's already had a TJ surgery, you have to salivate at what you might be able to get out of the Rangers for Prince. Perhaps they simply wouldn't be interested, but I'd take the same package they offered up for Johson and then be happy with just another solid reliever or something just a little bit extra to sweeten the deal(which I wouldn't have needed before seeing what they were willing to give the 'Fins).

I see that in James projections, Park isn't expected to have a very good season next year. I believe James has him at roughly 5.30 ERA. That said, I was impressed with him. I wouldn't be against giving him a modest contract in the 1.5-2.0 range with incentives if he starts 10 games, maybe 250K, 20 games 750K, 1 million for 25 games something along those lines in the event that he does show you something. Though truth be told, if I'm going to sign a pitcher whom I was impressed with this past post-season that could come cheap, I'd invetstigate Vincente Padilla a bit more. Electric arm, career 4.33 ERA pitching in sandboxes most of the time. Just one season with an ERA over 5.00. I know he's got his character concerns, but without having the ability to learn more about those, for these purposes I'll ignore them. I'd like to see him brought on for maybe something in the 4 million range with a similar type incentive laden deal as I suggested for Park. In any event, I doubt we make any moves until Jan when we see who's still out there and see what the biggest bargains are and we we can add for cheap that may end up busting out for us next year.

Given his production and his stuff, I think a pretty strong argument could be made that if they moved him up after a strong spring that he'd deserve such a promotion. In other words, I don't think if they brought him up as a reliever he be being rushed at all. But yes, you are correct. The problem with pitching in baseball is that you get all these talented young arms throwing in the mid 90's, and just such a tiny fraction of them ever pan out, injuries being the single largest factor in their inability to reach the big leagues. I think Brewers fans have suffered through the JM's, and the Neugy's, and the whole list on and on....even to lesser degrees(in that they weren't prospects) Nieves and Higura.

Agree with everything you've said. What's more, I'll feel bad for the kid because in about 5 years he's REALLY going to understand how badly he screwed up, and then he'll spend the rest of his LIFE thinking about what a special life he could have had, had he not thrown it all away. Of course, I don't think "lifetime" ban really means for the rest of your life. I don't think that Jeremy Jeffress would absolutely NEVER be allowed to pitch again. I mean, how many times did Mr. Howe get a "lifetime" ban?

I have to say, I cringe when people try and compare a every day job with that of a professional athlete. They really are so enourmously different in nearly every aspect that I don't feel you can try and draw those same analogies or comparisions. I agree, as does every person I've seen so far with your first paragraph that, however you may feel about the rules, the fact is, if you want to keep your job, you must obey them. Anyway, I think he could have a great deal of success even if he continued to smoke(were it not illegal). I don't believe that his smoking means he'd have issues causing problems in the locker room, or wouldn't work hard or any of that. Maybe in the everyday work place, but again, two very different situations.

I would think even coming off the year he had, roughly what Bobby Abreu signed for. 2 years 19 million or so. I really like Bradley(As a player). If we were in different divisions, I'd gladly take Bradley from the Cubs, have them eat a big chunk of his salary or even straight up for a guy like Supe and plug him into the #2 hole in our lineup after shipping Corey Hart off for a young starter with upside or really whatever.

I'll have to admit to having long held these very views, however after watching so many pitchers simply unable to pitch in this situations and so many teams having their seasons really fall apart as a result, I now place a bit more value on the Bullpen. I also don't really think "WAR" is a good evaluational tool for relievers. I don't think you can accurately quantify the impact they have. For instance, Carlos Marmol two years ago was worth 6-7 wins for the Cubs IMO at least. He came into so many games in the 6th, 7th or 8th innings when it was on the line and just shut down the other team. So while I completely understand your point of view on this one, and frankly I'd imagine I'm in the big minority here. But hey, I'm alright with that!

With respect, I don't agree in any way that concerns about his health are overblown. I, as can most Brewers fans, can name a plethora of talented future "aces" who have fallen by the wayside because they could not stay healthy, and frankly, most had fewer injury concerns up to the point that Mr. Braddock is at currently than he has had. And Tommy John was effective, however there are literally hundreds upon hundreds of minor leaguers with good arms who were not. So while I think everyone here loves the talent that Zach has, and everyone here hopes and believes he can be a big time pitcher for us, you absolutely have to take into account his injury concerns when discussing what he will do in the future. Bottom line, Braddock is the type of guy who could end up leading the Brewers rotation into a post-season series, he is the type of guy who could finish out a post-season series, or anything in between. But I don't believe for a second we're "overblowing" his injury concerns. They're pretty obvious.......though I would LOVE nothing more than to come back in 2-3 years and say, "yup, we were way over blowing it, he's proven to be completely durable". In fact, I don't think I've ever hoped to be wrong so badly!

I think there is a way. A 23 year old player with a world of talent moving to a new city and a new organization and realizing the talent that made him the centerpiece in a trade for the best pitcher in baseball. Aside from that, we did also save 10 million dollars. But either way, Melvin didn't trade for Carlos Gomez to assume his 2009 season. At some points in time, GM's have to take risks just as Dombrowski did last year on Edwin Jackson for example, a talented young pitcher who had gone through two org's without fully realizing his talent. I'd always, always rather Melvin take risks on the types of talents that if they pay off could be big time star players rathre than consistently going to the scrap heap hoping a player can strive to be replacement level. I understand why people are not in favor of Gomez. His OBP is just ugly. But that frame has the potential to add some power, and his skill set is that of a player with star potential. It's a big time boom or bust trade and frankly, the Brewers as currently constructed needed that type of player if they were going to have a real chance to surprise people next year and win 90 games. The needed that HOPE for a breakout star. AT least, at the very least he offers that(and a 10 million dollar savings).

While I do not agree with you on the fact that Cam was starting to regress with the bat, or the glove, I completely and utterly agree with yu on the rush to judge Gomez. Frankly, the kid should have spent another year at least in AAA, but he's an incredible talent and we bought him cheap, just as the Twins bought Hardy cheap. Worst case scenario, he's a #8 hitter in an NL lineup who gives you a great value defensively. Best case, he needed a change and will finally start to progress with the stick. Either way, he's 23. Lets hold off on calling it a bad move or him a bust. Heck, we've given Rickie several years(and I still believe he will break out just for the record). At least we can give Carlos ONE, right?

Perhaps on that note you could clarify for us newer posters on here how exactly you go about assigning value to your prospects. For me I place a great deal of value on ceiling.....lets say roughly 80 pct, and then about 20 pct on the liklihood to reach said cieling based on how close they are and how "sure of a thing" they are. What exactly would you guys say. Just to give me an idea of how others formulate their lists so as to come up with as coherent a list as possible. Using my aforementioned formula, I'd put a guy like Wooten somewhere in my 20's for example, and then a guy like Jeremy Jeffress somewhere in the lower Teens.

I think if the Brewers were given the chance to deal Suppan, they'd do so in a heartbeat. Especially for a guy like Byrnes whom I don't think is very good, but who could give the Brewers some value with a questionable CF situation. And yes, I understand he's not a CF'er, but he would give you some protection in the event that Carlos Gomez didn't give you much.

I think he's significantly, significantly more than a AAAA guy, and I don't think the Braves have any interest whatsoever in trading him. He's been an absolute stud in the minors with well over a K per IP and a 5/1 K/BB ratio. I just don't see any reason why the Braves would want to move him when he's got 6 years of service time left. I mean, I think you're looking at a Mat Gamel+ package in order to get him. Which may not be a bad idea, but I think his value is far higher than a AAAA guy.

Ok, I guess if we have two guys who can become legit stars, I'm all for trading one and letting one stay. However my fear is we're going to prematurely trade one of them and end up with the Salty rather than the McCann. I liked how the Braves did it. You brought them along, everyone questioned who would do what, then when you felt good about one and the other still had some value, you made the move and dumped Salty to Texas..(and without Salty that trade doesn't get made IMO as he was the centerpiece). So I guess in the end I agree with you, I simply differ on the timeline I believe we should use in evaluating which one to keep and which to trade.

Yes, you're correct, but part of the outrage there is the hindsight. Lets think back to the time when Hart started out the first 4-6 weeks hitting about .195 and Mench actually started out that year hitting very well. So while now it looks painfully obvious and like a mistake on the Brewers part, and frankly, it was, at the time it wasn't anything but obvious. So while I realize this isn't your point by any means, there is just this rush to kinda jump on the Brewers for a lot of little things. Obviously not a big deal one way or the other.......

I don't think anyone was getting into a discussion on it. I think we were all pretty much in agreement that regardless of our feelings on that issue, Jeffress needs to deal with the rules as they stand.

I absolutely agree with you on this count. I believe as well that he's added a couple of good years to his career with his altered batting stance.

You know, for all us grunts out there in the middle class working 40 hour weeks, guys like this are a whole helluva lot easier to follow than some players who can't feed their families on 21 million over 3 years. Just for an example. It makes me feel better that he's not only such a good guy, but that pitchers who throw in the mid 90's with a bugs bunny type curve, regardless of how inconsistent it may be, will get chances with other teams.

Frankly, as one who has seldom partaken, I am not one to judge. I frankly think it's a enourmous waste of time and resources. That aside, if it's right that he be punished as he is or not, the fact of the matter is that he IS being punished. He IS getting in trouble. Nothing more needs to be said. So even though you may think it's not fair, it is what it is. Deal with it. Grow up and stop doing it. And for the record, I do not buy any addiction with regard to pot. I think he's saying what he's being told to say, but he's not an alcoholic, or addicted to pain pills or heroin. So in that respect my sympathy is even less.