Warning Track Power

What about Trevor Rosenthal? His fastball intrigued me and his wildness may be harnessed working with Derek Johnson.

https://www.letsgotribe.com/2018/1/4/16849326/indians-still-willing-to-trade-danny-salazar This would be the kind of post-hype guy I think the Brewers may be targeting. Acquiring Salazar, who is under team control until after the 2020 season, would be a great acquisition for the Brewers. However: 1. I wouldn't trade Lewis Brinson for him 2. I am not sure I would be willing to part with Domingo Santana for him 3. I doubt the Indians would be willing to deal him for Brett Phillips or Keon Broxton. So where does that leave us? I think a Santana-Salazar straight up deal would probably be fair but if I were the Indians, why not just re-sign Jay Bruce and keep Salazar?

These two statements pretty much sum up what I anticipate occurring in 2018. I very much would welcome Walker back and would hope he would lead off if he is. However, if he isn't, I would imagine the Brewers give Villar every opportunity in the world (or until May 1) to take back his leadoff role.

I just wouldn't love a move like this. Cain doesn't significantly move the needle for me even if Santana were dealt in a package for an Archer or Stroman type. In such a scenario I would rather Brinson and Phillips begin in CF and RF with a lesser commitment OF (Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez) brought on as an insurance policy.

I doubled back to this site and the comments section out of curiosity. The Royals fans seem to think this is a bad deal for THEM and are convinced they should get Brinson as part of any deal for Duffy. Clearly these guys have no concept of team control, market value, injury history, a guy on a career year, etc...all these other pieces that go into valuing players. I honestly don't know why we would target Merrifield to begin with. We have a guy like him, a left handed version named Sogard. I don't see much of a difference between the two aside from team control and that Sogard can actually draw a walk. And team control isn't as important for players of their caliber...especially considering what we have coming through the pipeline. It's likely that Merrifield will regress enough to not even be tendered a contract at some point during his team control regardless of who he plays for. I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.

Santana being dealt would only be as part of a deal to acquire a cost-controlled TOR type like Archer or Stroman. I just don't see him being dealt for anything short of that.

If the Brewers are going down the route of dealing Broxton and Santana and signing a FA, I would much rather they sign Carlos Gomez. Mostly because he likely will be significantly cheaper than Cain. I don't love this path but would 100% make signing Gomez a priority as insurance in the event the Brewers choose this route given the possibility of Brinson or Phillips struggling.

Be interesting to see if the Brewers would move BOTH Broxton and Santana and free the outfield up for Brinson and Phillips. I have to imagine the Brewers would dive into the FA market for a 4th OF (Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez) type at that point to protect against Brinson and Phillips falling flat.

Now Bennett and Van Pelt out too... Major house cleaning with TT reassignment and firing of OC, DC, DL, Assistant LB and WR & RB Coach.

I look at Stokes statistics and see Khris Davis. I wonder what value he has given his power/speed potential (albeit at 5'8").

Pre-2017, Baseball America had the following rankings: -Moncada #2 overall propsect -Brinson #27 overall prospect -Kopech #32 overall prospect With Burnes 2017 season and Hiura coming off his initial season in the minors, I will not be surprised to see Burnes top 50 and Hiura top 75 for 2018. Three top 75 prospects versus two top 30 prospects...I don't think it's that far off especially given Sale is undoubtedly the better pitcher between him and Archer. The #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball holds massive value, though. Kopech is staying the course. Brinson's been fine, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's knocked down the BA rankings a little bit prior to the season. Agreed, but I am not sure GMs feel the same way about saying we have the "#1 prospect in baseball." Think that is more braggadocio for us fans. Honestly, think I would rather have Kopech than Moncada if given the choice between the two because of the scarcity of potential TOR arms.

Pre-2017, Baseball America had the following rankings: -Moncada #2 overall propsect -Brinson #27 overall prospect -Kopech #32 overall prospect With Burnes 2017 season and Hiura coming off his initial season in the minors, I will not be surprised to see Burnes top 50 and Hiura top 75 for 2018. Three top 75 prospects versus two top 30 prospects...I don't think it's that far off especially given Sale is undoubtedly the better pitcher between him and Archer.

Are you really surprised that a prime-age, currently performing, relatively cheap, good pitcher with dominant stuff, that has 4 years of control exposed in the offseason to the entire MLB has generated an extremely high price tag? Chris Archer has 2 ASG appearances and a 3.6 ERA/3.46 over the past five years. Chris Sale, was coming off 5 straight ASG and a 3.04 ERA/3.06 FIP over the past five years when he was dealt for Moncada, Kopech, Diaz and Basabe. A package of Brinson, Burnes and Hiura + appears to be better than what the Red Sox received for Sale...so yes I am surprised that the lesser pitcher could command more in a trade.

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone. I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous. I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true. I hear you and think you make a great point that the depth could be depleted quickly if Brinson is merely a 2 WAR player and Phillips is a 4th OF. I am certainly not advocating a "we've got a bunch of them, deal them" strategy either. At this point though, with Braun still in LF, Domingo established in RF and Broxton, Phillips and Brinson MLB-ready, I am comfortable moving some OF depth for SP.

https://www.draysbay.com/2018/1/2/16831078/tampa-bay-rays-reset-button-evan-longoria-chris-archer-kevin-kiermaier While this article doesn't say Archer is unavailable, it sure does lead me to believe that the Rays will have to absolutely win a trade to deal him. Some of the "Never Archer" guys on this site may have been right all along that it would take Brinson, Burnes, Hiura, + to land him. At that point...HARD PASS

This is a good point. Stearns' style to date would be to target controllable, pre-breakout players via trade. Signing a FA like Arietta, Darvish, Cobb, Lynn all fly in the face of what Stearns MO has been to date (granted the Brewers were in "rebuild" mode and not looking for FA). In regard to Archer, I would say that also isn't Stearns MO. Looking at a few trades in particular, Shaw, Villar and Anderson, I think Stearns is looking for SP in a similar vein. Archer has already "broken out" which doesn't make me think he is Stearns target at this point. All of this leads me to believe a trade target would be more a Sean Manaea-type if he is searching for SP via trade. Chacin seems to fit the Anderson profile, late 20s who could still bloom. Who else is a Sean Manaea type player that the Brewers could be targeting via trade?

2 things: 1. No player with as much value will only cost that much. The Rays are also an MLB franchise trying to win. They aren't going to say, "give me a bunch of guys from your system that you don't even value that much." Yeah, you may have a few potential blue-chippers, but we'll take the guys that you're counting on as maybe backup options if those blue chippers fail for our franchise pitcher. 2. "Replaceable organizational depth" is also a term that I don't understand in a lot of cases. While in a lot of the Greinke/Marcum trades, the Brewers kinda knew they were emptying the system out at certain positions, there is always the mantra of, "well yeah, we're giving up Odorizzi, but we still have Jungmann (drafted later), Peralta, Heckathorn, Thornburg, etc." You need to have a lot of guys at a position because 70% of them will probably flame out and bust. It may not seem like giving up Ortiz is a big deal, but if Perrin, Woodruff, Burnes are not as good as hoped, it's entirely possible that Ortiz was the guy. Or maybe 2 years from now we have a few injuries and Ortiz would've been the guy that would've been good enough to be the #4 starter to patch the hole for half a season to make the playoffs. Also, in these trade scenarios, it always seems like the perceived 2nd or 3rd guy in the org pecking order is offered. Circling back to #1, if the Rays ask for Ortiz in the package, my guess is that an MLB talent evaluator things that Ortiz is the best one of the bunch. They could be wrong, of course, but we're not going to be giving up our 3rd or 4th pitching prospect option, we'll probably have to give up one of them that becomes the best. Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz are not secondary prospects to Brinson, Burnes and Hiura. While I would say that most fans would rather part with the first three than the latter but that doesn't make them more or less valuable to the Rays. A deal could be Harrison, Burnes and Hiura. Or Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz. Regardless, I would imagine it would take some combination of these prospects to acquire Archer. The Rays certainly will want the best talent, but I won't be surprised if they are mining the Double AA-ish level for that talent rather than MLB-ready given the Yankees and Red Sox renewing their arms war. In terms of replaceable organizational depth, I think most fans would like to see the Brewers acquire a TOR pitcher. With the depth of Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, Ray, Lutz, Stokes, etc...and only 3 OF spots to play them, it would seem apparent they have enough depth to deal from here to fill other spots where they are lacking.

Back on topic about Cobb, I just don't know what to expect from him. Does a rotation of Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Chacin-Woodruff/Suter/Nelson make you a playoff contender? If it doesn't, spending $15-$20 million on him doesn't make a ton of sense and the Brewers would be better served to continue to explore the trade market or continuing to develop their internal candidates. After going through all of the possible SP additions via trade or FA, I guess the real question becomes who moves the needle to the Brewers toward a playoff rotation?

I like Pina as much as the next guy but he has offensive regression written all over him. Vogt, Susac and Bandy all have their warts as well. I am only advocating for Lucroy to guard against that potential regression especially given the Brewers currently can afford it.

What I want to see disagrees with just about all of this, but all of those things could make some degree of sense except the Lucroy piece. Why Lucroy? I personally don't want him to work with our young pitchers as I firmly believe he's a terrible game caller. All his pitch selections are way too obvious, every hitter can see them coming from a mile away. And his bat has significantly regressed. We have pina and other solid/unspectacular options behind the dish. Spending like that on what very likely could be a downgrade in Lucroy makes zero sense to me. Walker and Archer make sense to me for different reasons. Walker to cover the time until Hiura gets to Milwaukee and Archer because he is a cost and team-controlled high end pitcher that wouldn't (in this scenario) require us to give up anything more than replaceable organizational depth (Brinson, Phillips, Burnes, Hiura, Dubon all could replace Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz). Lucroy because offensively he looked back in Colorado and I am afraid of the combination of potential Pina offensive regression, Vogt's age and D and Bandy and Susac's 2017 performance. In 142 ABs after the trade, Lucroy hit .310/.429/.437. I think catcher is a position where it could cost "relatively" little to provide some insurance.

MAX: 2 years $20 million Hopefully could get him for 2 years $14-$15ish as that would be better than his highest one year of $5.25 million and double his career earnings of ~$16 million.

Personally, I'd take Cobb if that was the choice. Would love the pitching depth. Agree to disagree then. Cobb would likely be 4-5 years at $80-$100 million based on what the rumors are. I would take a 2 year, $20ish million commitment to Walker and Lucroy (4 years $40 million total) to try and stabilize the offense (i.e. limit the Ks which are so prevalent with Santana, Thames, Broxton and even Shaw).

At $20 million per, I doubt the Brewers would be interested. I would much rather the Brewers allocate the $20 million annually towards signing Neil Walker and Jonathan Lucroy to cover the offense and roll with Chacin/Woodruff/Suter/Jungmann in the 3-5 spots in the rotation.

I had some other plans earlier in the offseason, but at this point I think I would like to see: 1. Re-sign Neil Walker (2 years $22 million) 2. Sign Jonathan Lucroy (2 years $20 million) 3. Trade OF (Harrison), SP (Ortiz) & 2B (Diaz) prospect for Archer I really love the IF of Shaw-Arcia-Walker-Thames, with Aguilar and Sogard off the bench. Walker would allow the Brewers to move Villar (possibly as a final piece in a deal for Archer) and should cover the years before Hiura reaches Milwaukee. I would love to bring Lucroy back to work with the young pitchers that have made their debuts (Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Wilkerson, Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams) or are going to making their debuts shortly (Corbin Burnes). I think he will be 85% of the Lucroy of old for the next two seasons and a combination of Lucroy-Pina is quite good. I won't beat to death the trade of a few prospects for an SP but Archer remains my target. A mid-season rotation of Archer, Anderson, Davies, Chacin/Woodruff and (hopefully) Nelson looks very strong. The back of the bullpen of Knebel-Hader is near elite and has the potential to be shutdown if Jeffress can return to form and take over the 8th. If pieces are needed, the Brewers still have the ammunition in the farm to acquire a piece or two in July. This team would still be able to compete with older veterans (Braun, Lucroy, Walker, Thames) while also allowing the younger guys to develop and replace them in a few years (Brinson, Phillips, Hiura, etc...). I think this team would win 88+ games and would certainly be in the mix for the playoffs while not decimating the farm system.

Completely agree. I think a realistic packaged should be Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz for Archer