ListachRides
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Everything posted by ListachRides
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Coming into the year, I was worried about the dip in his strikeout total last season. I expected Scarpetta to surpass him on the prospect pecking order while in AA. Obviously it's only been two games but I'm thrilled Wily is making me feel foolish. His stat line tonight is terrific. -
Good to know. If there are question marks about his bat, then the Brewers could probably do better at 15.
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I don't see Purke to the Brewers happening. Most of what I've read between BA, ESPN and elsewhere suggests that Purke is expected to be pricey (he had a $6 million deal voided by MLB 2 years ago and you'd have to think he's looking for something similar). I do think there's a decent chance one of the other top-tier college arms, likely Barnes or Jungman, drops to 12. To me, Mahtook's a real exciting possibility at 15. The scouting reports I've read described him as a toolsy player who can handle CF defensively but lacked polish. Colby obviously knows much more than I do, but I suspect that #54 overall ranking would be different now that Mahtook showed up this season and started destroying the ball. Strikes out a little more than you'd like but otherwise his numbers are sick. I think landing a high-upside college player would be great for an unprotected pick. I'd be pleased with something like Barnes at 12 and Mahtook at 15. Too early to guess at names but there should be some real good talent available for the 2nd-round pick as well.
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Link Report for Games of Thursday 4/7 -- Play Ball!
ListachRides replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'll second this. Tonight's pitching performances were a terrific way to kick off the minor league season. Pretty much the opposite of the big league club's opening day. -
I'm inclined to disagree. Everything I've read so far suggests that there will be multiple players available in the 10-20 range that wouldn't make it out of the top 10 most years. I think there will be real elite talent available when the Brewers pick. In particular, they might have their choice of the top-shelf high school arms if the first ten picks are as college-heavy as people are expecting. I think the amount of worthy candidates for where the Brewers are picking is what has me most excited about this year. There are so many possible options for those picks that speculating about them won't grow stale by draft time.
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2011 General Draft Discussion
ListachRides replied to colbyjack's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Colby, thanks for the great work over at 5 Tool Talk, I read every update you post. Baez is very intriguing. What position do you see him playing? I prefer both Baez and Fisher to Nimmo, who I mentioned earlier because he struck me as Brewer-type pick. I was impressed by this interview I found with Fisher http://yankees.scout.com/2/1056616.html. -
2011 General Draft Discussion
ListachRides replied to colbyjack's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Law's got a new top 50 up at ESPN for insiders only: http://insider.espn.go.co...eith&page=FutureFifty2.0 To me, Alex Meyer just screams Brewer pick. Tall guy with power stuff and control problems who is finally producing results in his draft season - just sounds like he hits all of the scouting department's erogenous zones. That's not an endorsement, more of a nagging fear actually. The unprotected pick at 15 is harder to predict, but the guy I'd keep an eye on is Brandon Nimmo. As a raw, toolsy position player lacking conventional amateur competition, he reminds me a bit of the Lawrie and Max Walla picks, along with the Brewers' reported interest in Anthony Hewitt during the Lawrie draft. -
I can't sign off on Dickerson with either of the Brewers first-round picks. This is supposed to be one of the strongest drafts in recent memory and a no-glove all-bat 1b/LF is not going to be good value where the Brewers are picking. While pitching may be the relative strength of the Brewers' farm system compared to the dearth of position player prospects, they need to just go BPA. In the first 20 picks of this draft that is most likely to be a pitcher. I could get excited about Lindor or Bradley, Jr., but otherwise I think the Brewers are again going to be looking at college arms early and often. I just hope they take the right ones. It's possible a power hitter could be good value in rounds 2 or 3. You mentioned Oropesa, who I think will be available at least through their round 2 pick. I could see others like Preston Tucker or Dan Vogelbach being options after the the first round.
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Thanks. Long-time fantasy team name.
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This trade is great news. I hate losing Odorizzi, but it's not as if he was surrounded by enough talent in our system that he marked the beginning of a dominant wave of Brewers' prospects. By the time Odorizzi was up, we were likely to be at least a few other pieces short and having this same debate over trading away some of the following wave of prospects. Opportunities to put a true World Series contender on the field don't come often. I like going for it.
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Forgive me a small correction but as many of the comments to the article point out, the article actually argues that the two pitchers have very similar career numbers. Pavano's been better the past two seasons. I agree with the general premise of the article, that Blanton has a better contract than the one Pavano is likely to get and will probably provide better value relative to his contract. However, based on their recent performance there is good reason to believe Pavano will be the better pitcher in 2011. If the Brewers want to make a run at the division this year, that's the argument for preferring Pavano. I don't think there's enough difference between the two to warrant giving Pavano a 3rd year. Assuming that's what it takes to get him, I'd agree that Blanton is the better play.
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Fair enough. I think Greinke is the only guy who dramatically improves the Brewers chances for all of those things. I think it's 50-50 whether Garza or Pavano pitches better next season. Either would be the third guy in the rotation ahead of Wolf. As others have said, Garza is preferable mainly because he is much more likely to continue to pitch well in 2012 and 2013. With either, the Brewers should be better than .500 and playoff contenders this season.
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Pavano makes decent sense on a 2-year deal, and I could live with a 3rd-year buyout (which, if we sign him, seems like the best-case scenario right now). I would fully expect him to outpitch Wolf and Narvy next year and add maybe 2 wins to our outlook. I've got reservations about it, and hate giving up the draft pick, but don't understand what all the vitriol is about. Unless the contract is much worse than I expect it will hardly be crippling. All of the true impact players fall out of the Brewers' price range regardless of whether the Brewers sign the Wolf's and Pavanos of the world. If we didn't spend the money on Pavano, it's unlikely we'd be able to use it for anything but next year's version of Pavano.
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Ok then. I'm sympathetic to your viewpoint. It may be a mistake to give up that much. I'm not sure I would have been willing to go that high before the Marcum trade. Now that we have Marcum two things have changed for me: 1) We've already started sacrificing future resources to become better in the present. If that's our strategy, I think we should stick to it. I don't think the Brewers have the resources to fully pursue win-now and win-tomorrow strategies simultaneously. The best use of our resources to win-tomorrow would have been to trade Prince and keep Lawrie. The poor market for Prince seems to have made win-now the best strategy and I think we should commit all of our resources to that end. 2) Now that we have Marcum, I think we're close enough that Greinke (or Lee, if that was at all reasonable) would push us over the top. With just Marcum we're a fringy playoff contender, with just Greinke, we'd be a somewhat stronger playoff contender. With both, I think we're a legit World Series favorite, and the difference between that and the first two scenarios is why it would be worth it to me now to go all in. This may be a somewhat strained analogy, but it kind's of like how the Celtics decision to trade for Garnett became a much smarter gamble after they first completed the separate move to acquire Ray Allen.
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I suppose it's a difference of opinion, but I do believe there's a considerable difference between Marcum and Greinke. If you look at WAR, Greinke's last 3 seasons have been better than Yo's 2010 (which was better than Marcum's 2010). Greinke's 2009 season was simply phenomenal, one of the best by any pitcher in the past decade. While I like Marcum plenty, I think Greinke, unlike Yo or Marcum, has the potential to have a Halladayesque season. Adding him would give us an ace that could match up in a playoff series against any pitcher in baseball.
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If the Royals' asking price comes down later this off-season or at the July trade deadline to the point where something like a Cain+Odorizzi+Jeffress+Gamel deal would be enough, I'd say we should do it. As painful as it would be to give up that much, the Brewers have already prioritized the near future by keeping Fielder and trading Lawrie, so we might as well go all out. I liked adding Marcum, but agree with those who worry that the Brewers still look like they might top out at 85 wins as currently composed. Adding Greinke is the one move left that could transform the club from NL contenders to NL favorites for the next two seasons. I'm willing to endure any future drop off in exchange for a good 2-year window.
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If the Braves are the most interested suitor, the two likeliest names are Beachy and Jurrjens. Beachy alone is not enough for the Brewers, and I don't see Melvin interested in a package of Beachy and one of the Braves' younger prospects. That leaves Jurrjens. To get him, I'd imagine the Brewers would need to included something else. What does everyone else think?
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Padres interested in Brett Lawrie?
ListachRides replied to Invader3K's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Many people see Castro as a Yo-type pitcher. I've seen him described as potential #1 or 2 by multiple scouting reports. And he's not real far away as he'll start the year in AAA. Probably needs a full season there from what I've read, but he'd still be a great young pitcher to have for the 2012 rotation. Obviously the Brewers don't make the trade if they don't feel that way about him. It would be preferable to use Lawrie as part of a larger package to get Greinke, and I would be upset if the Brewers didn't explore all potential avenues for maximizing the return before trading Lawrie. But if we are unable to get Greinke it may not be possible to find another proven top-of-the-rotation guy available. Acquiring a potential ace may require a little risk tolerance on a close-to-the majors prospect. Doesn't have to be Castro, but someone in that same upper echelon prospect range. Given Lawrie's positional uncertainty, I'd be ok with it. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
ListachRides replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'd be pretty happy to get Floyd for Prince. He's been a 4.5 WAR pitcher (according to Fangraphs) each of the last two years and he's under control through 2013 at a well below-market salary ($5mil in 2011, 7mil in 2012, and club option for 9.5mil in 2013). Hard to believe the Sox would part with him. But Kenny Williams is a wildcard and they do have a fairly deep rotation depending how Peavy comes back. -
Going by Fangraphs numbers, $13.5mil per year is an excellent value for Greinke if he performs like he did this season (and highway robbery if he performs like he did in 2009). In fact, I think the reasonableness of his contract is part of what's appealing about Greinke. That, and the fact that he's filthy. I still say Lawrie, Jeffress and two lesser pieces (say, Heckathorn and Gindl) is the best-case package for the Brewers. Royals don't have a need for Gamel given their stockpile of corner players. I agree that it will take one of Lawrie or Odorizzi and I'd rather keep Odorizzi given the possibility we can resign Weeks and thus not have a big need at any of Lawrie's most likely positions. After that, I'd prefer to keep Rogers over Jeffress because I think Rogers has a better chance of making it as a starter. The two lesser pieces aren't as important and are pretty much up to KC. That may not be enough, but I find it hard to believe we can get it done for any less.
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I obviously agree that if you think Jeffress is going to develop into a #1 starter, you keep him. I just think he ends up in the pen more likely than not, which is why I'm willing to move him. I'm also a little skeptical that the Brewers will find a suitable trade partner for Prince this fall. If that's the case and Prince is around, I wouldn't mind trying to make a serious run next year. I honestly believe that the only player in the deal that the Brewers will really miss in 2013 is Lawrie. With the guys you mentioned, there is enough pitching depth in the system that I would still be optimistic about the 2013 staff even without Jeffress and Peralta.
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For what it's worth, Olney said today that a number of GMs believe the Royals will dangle Greinke this fall. I agree that it would take one of Lawrie or Odorizzi, though hopefully not both. Does a package of Lawrie, Jeffress, Peralta and Gomez get us close? That addresses the Royals' two main weaknesses: up-the-middle position players and right-handed pitching. Obviously the Royals would have to believe Lawrie could stay at second to see it that way. I could see substituting Cain or Lucroy for Gomez if necessary, though I think the Royals might be higher on Gomez than most as they seem to emphasize tools over stats.
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In the MWL chat Callis said Gennett would've been in the 20-25 range which is pretty impressive given how stacked the league was. The bad news is that he also said he didn't think Kentrail's glove would play in center but didn't think his bat was enough for left, and said the scouts he talked to were unimpressed with Heckathorn and didn't like his off-speed pitches. It's interesting that they liked Miller ahead of Nelson on the Pioneer League list.
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The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)
ListachRides replied to Invader3K's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I imagine either Oliver or Porcello would be the headliner in a deal with the Tigers. Melvin has shown a strong preference for MLB-readiness, and I doubt the Tigers would want to part with Turner. -
2011 General Draft Discussion
ListachRides replied to colbyjack's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Thanks for the response. If any of Bradley/Hultzen/Bauer are realistic targets for the unprotected pick at 15, sign me up. One of those three plus a high-upside guy at 9 or 11 would make a great start to a draft. Because whichever of those guys we got would presumably move quick, it would also help make up for losing out on Covey this year, the way a comp pick is supposed to work.
