Oxy
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Everything posted by Oxy
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When you type in the address and look at the star/pin point on the schematic map that may be true. I'm pretty sure that when you click on the satellite photo your house is in the right spot though.
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The cost is relevant for people who believe that athletes should not be able to live normal lives outside of their professions (i.e. playing basketball if they feel like it) -
All told, by early November they will have just broken into triple digits. 100 or 101.
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His power is never going to drop to the point where this is a serious concern until later in his career and his K/BB improved as the year went on last year so it doesn't seem like the 'adjustment' was to start throwing him more strikes at any point. If they start to throw more strikes he'll just hit more HR and if they throw fewer strikes he'll have a higher OBP, he's going to be one of the better hitters out there no matter what. The key is to not swing at the junk, as long as he isn't swinging at junk he's going to put up elite stats because he becomes a no win situation. I agree with this but it is somewhat dependent upon the situation and the offense around him. If nobody can drive him in, a walk doesn't do a whole lot of good. Similarly, late in a close game with 2 outs and nobody on base it would behoove him to expand his strike zone a little bit. I sometimes wondered why back in the day when Barry Bonds was getting intentionally walked once or twice a game he didn't swing at the first intentional ball just to at least see what the pitcher would do next. Obviously, Prince is nowhere near that sort of dominance, so I don't advocate for him to expand the strike zone THAT much. But I would like to see him foul off some close ones to try and get the pitcher to make a mistake.
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Having "mono" means that you tested positive for the virus and have some symptoms. As with many medical conditions, the severity of those symptoms runs quite a spectrum; in the case of mono it can cause nothing at all to being wiped out for weeks on end and having an engorged spleen. Most adults who weren't germophobes and had a social life as a youth have been exposed to the virus (Epstein-Barr virus) at some point but many never even knew it because they lacked symptoms or just attributed it to feeling "run down" for awhile and forgot about it. Basically, no two cases are alike.
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The Cards were required to pick up a 2 year option for '12 and '13 for ~12M/per after he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting last year. I'm not sure if there are other screwy clauses regarding a significant injury or not.
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Weeks Counsel Braun Fielder McGehee Hart Dickerson Lucroy Pitcher
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I don't think it is going to be an issue. From all accounts, this guy was born to pitch and compete at the highest level. The pitching mound is where he was meant to be, and he knows it. He puts up with all the other crap that goes along with being a professional athlete BECAUSE he gets to pitch. He doesn't do it for the money. He doesn't do it for the fame or to be a star. He does it because he loves to pitch and strike guys out. His off days might be pretty boring, but as long as the team is winning I don't think that will be an issue either.
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Poor guy. The irony inherent in the situation of being the best quote machine in MLB because you hate to give quotes.
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Where did you find this info? Fangraphs has Pujols about 20th in UZR in 2008. Don't forget that metrics like UZR compare first baseman to league average first baseman. A +10 at 1B is significantly less impressive than a +5 at SS.Baseball-reference. I'm no guru, so I don't know how their stats differ from FanGraphs, but just after taking a quick look at each site their WAR numbers are totally different. That is very annoying when different sites can use the exact same label/acronym for a stat that is computed quite differently.
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That's bad news when you have a 5'10" immobile first basemen. Prince has improved over the years, but still. Speaking of defense at first base, I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008. Color me skeptical about defensive advanced metrics, or any defensive metrics for that matter.
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I think there are two points to be made in favor of the Brewers for both the Weeks and Marcum cases. The first is the injury history of each player. Marcum is only a year removed from having a season completely wiped out due to injury, and we all know Weeks' issues. Second is the salaries that each made last year: Weeks made $2.75M, and Marcum made $850K. While you usually see big pay raises in the first year of arby for great players without an injury history, I'm not sure if Marcum qualifies for as large a bump as he is asking for. Same with Weeks. $2.75M to $7.2M? That just seems egregious. Granted, I think both Weeks and Marcum are easily worth the numbers they filed for but the histroy of the system disagrees.
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Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, and Greinke all being re-signed? That's just silly. While I'd be surprised if none of these guys are signed, signing all of them is just ridiculous, with Prince being the most obvious ridiculosity. I'd guess that Parra or Narveson is in the rotation in '14 in place of Marcum, Greinke, or Scarpetta. Gamel will be at 1B/RF depending on how it works out best between Corey and him. Unless we can pull off a coup of a trade next year with one or more of the expiring contracts, I would guess that .500 would be realistic record.
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I agree with most of what is said here--the problem I have is blurring the distinction between what is statistically determined as "luck" because of the complexity of the variables (which you nicely quoted above), with ACTUAL luck. For statistical purposes it makes sense to use the term "luck" in many instances. However, I don't really think it makes sense to ascribe "luck" to any particular individual outcome on the field. It comes into play sometimes with weather and bad hops, etc. But just because something unlikely happened (say, Jason Kendall hitting a bomb off of Roy Halladay) doesn't make it luck. Further, the more that something "unlikely" or "lucky" happens, the LESS lucky it actually was in the first place! Things are constantly changing and probabilities are constantly changing so that what once could be considered "luck" may actually have a very rational explanation.
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Don't forget Casey McGehee http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
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I am no prospect-nik, so could anybody tell me how Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos, and Fuld compare to the 5 guys we gave up this year? From my limited reading in the last 5 minutes I get the impression that Archer is probably a better prospect than Odorizzi or Jeffress, Lee~Escobar, Guyer~Cain and Lawrie is the best prospect of the ten. We got 4 years of likely outstanding pitching while the Cubs get 3 years of very good pitching. Seems to be pretty even to me.
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Well, that narrows it downhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif
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We would also be upgrading significantly on the offensive side for the SS position, and we'd have an option to keep Furcal next year at 12M. Furcal has the ability to put up a WAR close to what Prince would put up (4ish-not matching Prince, but pretty good nonetheless). If Betancourt is replacement level or worse, and whoever we get in return to replace Fielder can be average (and we can control them cheaply for a few years), I think it would be to our advantage. That said, trading Fielder probably would be too much of a PR hit at this point to happen.
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Yeah, I think we discussed that previously. I don't see how the Brewers could work out a trade like that financially at this point. It wouldn't make sense for the Dodgers to trade him and eat a large portion of his salary. Especially if we would (presumably) only be sending back a lower level prospect in return. I can't really see anyone on the MLB roster being dealt at this point.Why couldn't/wouldn't the Brewers trade Prince for Furcal and change? Or perhaps Prince for Reyes? We'd still have Gamel and and could perhaps pick up an adequate cheap replacement for Prince like Loney or Murphy. If Furcal/Reyes and Loney/Murphy are significant defensive upgrades over what we have now I think Melvin would have to check it out.
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I think they are the best team in the central, but I don't think they are the favorites due to the schedule. And it's hard to be favorites for the wild-card just because you are competing against so many other teams (who also don't have to play MIN, NY, BOS, TB, and MIN again).
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Is our farm system really depleted?
Oxy replied to berniebrewer4life's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
The thing is, if everyone of our pitchers fulfilled their projections/ceilings, we would end up with one Gallardo quality pitcher (Rogers) and 5-7 Parra and Narveson types. That's a pitching staff that might be able to compete with Pittsburgh's. Not only is this if most of our guys turn out, it's also the STRENGTH of our system! Right now it is unlikely that we could field a team of minor league position players that will eventually even be good enough to be September call-ups. Again, I'm not really complaining because the MLB team should be good for long enough to replenish the system, but if we are still singing this tune in two years things could be looking bleak. I have faith that we will draft well the next two years to get a nice mix of talented upside and polished college guys to replenish the system. Not to mention a likely trade or two of Greinke/Marcum/McGehee/Gamel/Weeks/Fielder that could bring in a nice haul of youngsters. We have developed enough talent the past 5-7 years to think that we can do it again. But anybody who says that the guys we currently have in the system aren't that bad is seriously deluding themselves. Enjoy the MLB team now and hope we can reload in a few years! -
I think the crux of the issue has already been addressed- football is a game that is dominated by pure athleticism and highly specialized talents at particular positions. Every game you have 50-70 plays to judge them on their effectiveness at a relatively small number of reliable traits (positioning, speed, tackling/blocking) The one position that this doesn't hold is at QB, where guys do hang on longer at get many chances. Baseball is so much more nuanced. There are a myriad of highly specialized skills to evaluate--and in each one a small adjustment can mean a large difference in effectiveness over the course of the season.
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Is our farm system really depleted?
Oxy replied to berniebrewer4life's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
This is what I was going to say. We have one player whose ceiling is is a good major league starter. Can it get any more bare than that? Every other guy is basically hoping for a cup of coffee or to stick somewhere as a quality back-up. Sure, there could be some surprises, but they would be exactly that--surprises. Most of the guys in the system are of the same quality as scrap-heap players like Maysonet, Riggins and Sanchez. That's why we signed those guys. I don't think this is overly concerning though considering we have a young core of Hart, Braun, Gallardo, McGehee/Gamel, and hopefully LuCroy that we have control of for the next 4 years or so. If we can extend Weeks, Marcum or Greinke that will add to the mix. The next 2 years, the MLB team should be very good, and two years is a lot of time to replenish the farm--especially considering all of the draft picks that are coming our way. -
Brewers sign C Wil Nieves to a non-guaranteed $775K deal
Oxy replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think the most important "hidden stat" for catchers is wild pitches and to a lesser extent passed balls. I have no idea if anybody even keeps a wild pitches given up stat for catchers but they should. I also have no idea if Nieves is any good at blocking balls, but after watching LuCroy and Kottaras at times last year, I don't mind some competition in that spot. A team with a poor backstop (literally) has almost no chance of being a good defensive team. Pitchers feel very uncomfortable throwing breaking pitches with guys on base; their strand % goes way down, and they get angry. I think this is what it means when people say "pitchers like throwing to him." They are confident they can let anything loose. -
I thought the Brewers traded Maldonado for Rob Wishnevski and William Suero? Also, I don't think he's eligible for the Power 50 now that he just turned 50. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
