Oxy

I'm not sure on the recent numbers, but they've always had the highest suicide rate too. So... stubbornly happy. To a point, anyway.

Yes! Turn all day games into double headers. Start every currently scheduled day game 1 hour earlier, shorten it to 7 innings, then immediately play another 7 inning game right after it.

Yes! Turn all day games into double headers. Start every currently scheduled day game 1 hour earlier, shorten it to 7 innings, then immediately play another 7 inning game right after it.

I saw the same thing! They were probably satellites all in the same orbit. Could it be SpaceX StarLink? [sarcasm]Impossible[/sarcasm]

Not sure where this belongs, but since I believe it was related to covid-19. I'll put it here. Two nights ago I walked the dog and noticed the constellation Orion (about the only one I know and that is because I can't get enough of the show Ancient Aliens). Anyway, one of Orions feature is Orions belt - 3 stars on nearly a straight line. So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart. I have no idea what was happening. My first thought was reserves being sent to New York area, or supplies being sent that way. I mentioned it to my neighbors and she said that a pilot friend of hers had talked about all the cancelled flights and her guess was that they were sending all the planes to one airport for storage. She mentioned Indy, but I don't feel like they were heading that far south. So, if it is the latter then at least air travel has been significantly reduced. Not sure if you want your phenomenon explained or not, but google starlink: https://www.google.com/search?q=starlink&rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS772US873&oq=starlink&aqs=chrome..69i57j46j0l6.3593j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I would guess that it spreads people out to get their necessities. If there is only ONE place to get food, everybody has to go to that place to get it. This seems problematic to me. It also helps those restaurants stay in business.

I think we could see this quicker than people anticipate. I'd imagine that Golf will be the first sport to restart though. No contact, no teams, no "league"--literally just an association of solitary independent contractors playing outside in huge areas. Nobody is forced to play. And it will get huge ratings.

Frankly, countries with few elderly people and no nursing homes are not really going to be affected that much. They've got bigger problems to worry about--that's why there are few elderly people and no nursing homes there (and this is a gross generalization that probably isn't as true today as it was even 20 years ago).

Yesterday and Today: 7000 new cases in NY/NJ out of a total of 10,300 new cases in the USA. 29 new deaths in NY/NJ out of a total of 81 new deaths in the USA. To Date: 13,000 cases in NY/NJ out of a total of 24,000 cases in the USA. 72 deaths out of a total of 288 deaths.

I know you know this, but the point is to slow it down until a vaccine is available and to mitigate social disorder/disaster due to flooded healthcare system. Flatten the curve with moderate measures is far better than to extinguish the curve with draconion measures that cost billions/trillions to the economy and hinder the well being and freedom of millions of people. Those types of measures might be necessary for short terms in high density areas that are afflicted with high incidence rates, but not as a general plan.

Other diseases aren't as contagious. If we say "it was nothing" in a few years that means we did it right It depends how long and how widespread the shutdowns are relative to the outbreak. The shutdowns are necessary due to the novelty and lack of testing/vaccine for the virus/disease. We were trying to prevent utter disaster. In another 2 weeks we'll have a much better handle on localizing everything. It looks like New York may be shut down for awhile (months), while if it peaks and trends downward toward 0-ish for a week in most other places I would guess that those places will get back to business as usual (except for non-essential travel). Right now the blanket shutdowns of everything have a lot of people rightfully frustrated. I think we'll see those roll-back a bit except for certain locales. If we DON'T see a reasonable local approach and treat rural middle America the same way that we treat New York New York--or even if the Upper Peninsula of Michigan is treated the same way as Detroit--then the cries of over-reaction in certain places may become justified. We are still in the gathering information stage and the better safe than sorry stage, though.

And this is how the total death numbers can be off--also drastically. I had assumed something like this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0 Different countries deal with their VERY elderly in very different ways.

Yeah, that will be interesting to monitor in the next few days/weeks. They are still in the early stages and look to be entering the exponential uptick right about now (as is New York), but the contrast between Germany+Switzerland vs Italy+Spain is pretty stark so far.

Thanks! Apparently he is getting different numbers/info than the numbers WHO is giving to that Worldometer website...or he has an extremely sensitive definition of "roaring," or that interview is old and it was supposed to be roaring by now but isn't really...(likely thanks to distancing measures). Again, I can understand how wildly off the numbers can be...except for the death one. Especially in places like Singapore, South Korea, Japan, India...

So, if the ACTUAL number of cases is much, much, much higher than reported anywhere yet the death totals are NOT much higher (except in Italy...and who knows about Iran/China). So, this sounds an awful lot like influenza with an unknown but probably higher death rate and little to no herd immunity (notsure if there is any cross immunization from conventional coronavirus vs. novel coronavirus). I know there is a lot of blowback at people comparing this to the flu...but...it sure seems an awful lot like...the flu... (and that's not meant to diminish the seriousness of the threat. That variability in the death rate IS a gigantic dealbreaker and we don't really know what that number is--the difference between 0.1% and 2% is potentially millions of lives). I know I'm late to the party, but I've generally tried not to think about the whole deal until the last day or two.

Thank you! I figured it was something like this--or at least that there are theories/narratives out there as to what has happened. Nobody will ever know the true number of infected anywhere because of the asymptomatic/carrier nature of the virus, but large death tolls are a very difficult thing to cover-up. Now then, how about South Korea? Is there a timeline on their policies/guidelines? Also a linear curve in that country, but it peaked somewhere between Feb 28th and March 5th...maxing out at somewhere around 800 cases per day. For the last 10 days it's been somewhere around 100 new cases per day. The death rate as remained fairly steady since early March with anywhere from 0 to 7 deaths per day and a grand total of 94 deaths. There are more than 51 million people in South Korea, which is slightly bigger than Indiana at 38,000 square miles (just over HALF THE SIZE OF WISCONSIN (population 5.8 million). Cases- 8,652/51470000= 0.0168% incidence.... and deaths - 94/51470000 0.0001826% Weird, wacky stuff, I tell ya. Still early, but wow. Are they fudging their numbers?

I just read this thread now. A lot of reasonable people here. I posted on the main forum before seeing this one. Does anybody have a good timeline about what policies China enacted in the last 3 months? Travel bans, gathering bans, quarantine guidelines, etc.? Obviously some sort of new testing occurred on Feb. 12th, as the case numbers jumped dramatically that day (then resumed the "normal" decreasing trendline soon after that. They started to stem the growth curve less than two weeks after it began to spike going from 250 new cases a day on Feb 22nd to 3,884 cases on Feb 4th before decreasing again until March 1st when only 101 new cases were diagnosed. Why/how did China's growth curve remain linear? Are those numbers wrong? Italy and the US seem to be following the more "predicted" models of exponential growth at this point. (and yes, I know that over the course of many months there will be multiple peaks depending upon travel/local outbreaks varying spread of immunity/infection...)

Well, in real life actual data terms rather than speculative panic terms, a country of well over a billion people had 80,000+ get infected within the last 3 months and over 3200 of those people died. One month ago, the stats for that country were ~75,000 infections and 2200+ deaths. The outbreak there was far worse than anywhere else in the world to this point and yet it the infection has slowed to a near standstill (only foreign cases--they say, anyway). Drastic measures were taken, and only a couple of months later it appears those measures worked (again, if you believe the numbers). These numbers are so much lower than even the best case projections it is a little bizarre to me. 80,000 cases in China, only 5,000 in the last MONTH. That 80000 is .0057% of the population that is infected. Meanwhile, the NYT is publishing articles about hospital bed shortages IF 20%, 40% or 60% of the US populations gets infected. Umm, what?? Granted, we're not China (Thank God) so we may not get the same kind of total control....but 20% as best case scenario vs .0057% is a gargantuan gap. Obviously, the situation in Italy is much worse, and the rest of Europe doesn't look much better. Right now. In other places like South Korea things quieted down pretty quick. In other words, there is an extremely wide variance between best case and worst case scenarios right now and nobody is actually publishing the best case scenarios...because the more people that believe the best case scenarios to be true the worse things will end up in actuality. There is a lot of panic and fear mongering going on right now--and it's honestly for the best. The more people that freak out (without like...ACTUALLY freaking out...mental health is important too and it's affects are more subtle than CV) in the short term the shorter overall term we'll all have to deal with this. Still, the casualty in that scenario is the actual truth, which does still matter to some people.

This is one of those weird instances where the MORE of a minority your take is on the situation the more likely you are to be right. If the gov't/powers that be say "PANIC, don't touch anybody or go out in public," and EVERYBODY except 1 guy actually listens to the advice, the bug will die out fairly quickly and that ONE guy will say "See? No big deal, everybody was freaking out over nothing." Likewise, if NO measures were ever taken and people never even heard of the bug, Urban centers would turn into disaster zones pretty quick and that one guy claiming it's the end of the world will be closer to correct BECAUSE nobody believed him. Most things in life are actually self-fulfilling prophecies...this one is kind of the opposite (although still in that kind of realm).

https://www.reddit.com/r/AFL/wiki/streams

I hated High School Track/Field. Absolutely adored basketball and baseball (summer ball) and tolerated football (games were fun...everything else notsomuch). I went to state my jr year in track and didn't even go out my sr yr so I could fool around playing golf that Spring (and have one season in HS I wasn't obligated to a sport). I always wish I would have taken golf up as a middle schooler so I could have done that instead of puke my guts out in track and field for 3 years. No offense .

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, wow. A 4th+Hopkins for a 2nd+David Johnson. There are no words. Good lord. I don't know who the Packers' equivalent of David Johnson would have been at this point in Johnson's career, but I make that deal if I'm Gute. What a stunningly bad trade by Houston. I don't know what Hopkins' contract is like, but I'd rather have Aaron Jones than David Johnson. And I think I'd rather have Hopkins than Jones...but it's close.

We are still at least a week away from knowing anything. Even if Italy is the worst case scenario, the numbers don't seem to be catastrophic (perhaps near catastrophic in certain locales). The best case scenarios of South Korea and Japan would make all of the shutdowns an over-reaction. As much as the whole "better safe than sorry" mantra is a nice thing to say, it's just not actually true. Just as there is always a point where it makes sense to trade Christian Yelich, there is also a point where the economic impacts of "safety" just aren't worth it. As callous as this sounds, every life "saved" by measures of social isolation will still die at some point.

Hopefully those who determine the "gold standard" of screening AND/OR diagnostic testing for the presence and activity of a novel pathogen have more of an open mind than the majority of people....that's a tricky thing though.

Season is scheduled to start on March 19th. Anybody want to follow it? I think I've seen maybe 45 minutes of the sport in my life, but I am addicted enough to sports that I might foster an appreciation in the coming weeks. I'm not even much of a gambler.