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Oxy

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Everything posted by Oxy

  1. Oxy
    Huh? It's not like one of the numbers has to be actually 100% correct and one of them has to be 100% wrong. The most likely scenario when there is a large discrepancy between those numbers is that BOTH are off by a bit. Still, Zillow is an ESTIMATE or PREDICTION...Same as the Trade value ESTIMATE or PREDICTION. The actual trade is the actual market value (or actual value agreed upon by the two parties in the transaction, anyway). It is a sound analogy.
  2. Oxy
    I think there is too much risk for Familia's 2nd year on that contract. Lowrie is just one year. If he doesn't contribute he can be stashed on the DL or just released, whereas if Familia is still bad it's harder to do that while being on the hook for $11 in '21 as well. If they threw in another prospect that could change the equation. Lowrie is less commitment with an equal or greater chance to contribute. Now if they want to throw in JD Davis instead of Lowrie with Familia as the bad contract coming over I'd be good with that. They just picked up Jake Marisnick, BTW, which makes Davis even more expendable.
  3. Oxy
    Getting Lowrie and Smith for very little would be pretty ideal. Arcia, Urias, and Hiura all have options so we could still pursue better FAs. Lowrie can't seem to stay healthy anyway, but getting Smith with him would be worth the salary and the age/injury problems. When he is healthy there should be a place for a versatile veteran switch hitter, particularly on a 26 man roster.
  4. Oxy
    I think Stearns should holdout for a long ton rather than a s-ton.
  5. Oxy
    I don't know anything definitive about his clubhouse presence, but there is enough circumstantial evidence to suggest that he wasn't favored relative to, say, a Hernan Perez. Also, it was apparent watching the games that he just wasn't in tune with the game situation at all. Those aren't concrete facts, but they aren't exactly rampant internet speculations either.
  6. Oxy
    I'm officially excited now. I was not looking forward to having the same roster next year. Moose and Grandal are the only guys I'll "miss," and I didn't want them for the contracts they signed. A lot is going to happen in the next 3 months.
  7. Oxy
    I think I'd rather sign Donaldson to 2 yrs/$64M than Moose to 4 Yrs/$64M. Not that I want to sign Donaldson for that deal, but maybe something like it.
  8. Oxy
    This is a good spot for him. I like his skillset, but after watching him for years I don't want him on a playoff team...which means I don't want him.
  9. Oxy
    Okay, Woodruff, Yelich, Hader and Hiura is all we got. I did say that they will likely try to piece together a good team this year, and when that happens I'll be optimistic once the games start. Right now is not that time though. Right now I want to turn those 4 guys into 8 guys like them by 2024, cuz getting to a WS (let alone winning a WS) just isn't going to happen with those 4 guys, spare parts and our current farm system. I don't look at it as doom and gloom, I look at it as optimism for 2023 and beyond!
  10. Oxy
    This roster is a mess. The last 2 Septembers have been fun and beautiful, but it has really masked some objectively awkward roster problems. Moose and Grandal were versatile middle of the order bats and they are gone. Thames and Anderson were reliable, stabilizing, quality players and they are gone. Chacin and Miley were stalwarts in 2018, and Lyles and Pomeranz were dominant in 2019...all 4 are gone. Hiura likely isn't a National League player. Arcia is a bad regular. Cain and Braun are old. Shaw is terrible. The minor league system is bad. Woodruff and Yelich is all we got right now. Stearns has his work cut out for him. I wouldn't blink if Stearns blew it all up and started over. Trade Yelich, Hiura, Woodruff and Hader and Cain for 5-6 top 50 guys and another dozen high upside fliers and play for the future. I guess we could try to piece something together this year and see what it's like at the deadline, but I'm not optimistic right now. I can't see a WS caliber team in the next 2-3 years, so it makes sense to try to assemble one for 2023-2030.
  11. Oxy
    Vegas could work, but Jersey and Brooklyn should be #1 and #2 on any expansion list. Maybe Providence or Foxboro MA. In fact, I think the Florida teams should just split their season and play in Tampa/Miami in April, May, and September and should play in Jersey/Brooklyn in Jun, July and August. Playoff series' could alternate "home" sites. Well over half the people in Florida are "from" somewhere else anyway (same with Vegas).
  12. Oxy
    I think CC and Stearns like having high contrast in their bullpen arms. It's tough to face Claudio or Suter in the 6th and then face Hader in the endgame. Yardley would play that role from the right side in contrast to Black, Knebel and Wahl (and Woodruff as a SP).
  13. Oxy
    The computer sites (Ken Pom and T-Rank, anyway) have 8 B1G teams in the top 40. Nebraska and Northwestern will be poor and Minnesota, Rutgers and Iowa will probably be on the poor side of mediocre but everybody else should be hoping to make the tournament. I'll say it ends up with 7 bids. Great all around game from UW today. The hallmark of the Ryan years was the tremendous development from players throughout their 4 or 5 year career. If a couple of Trice, Reuvers, Ford, Davison, and King are markedly better players as upper classmen than they were their first 2/3 years then UW looks to be in an excellent shape for many years to come. That is the only question mark on Gard's resume, as he is clearly a great coach and the '20/'21 classes show he can recruit too (or the assistant coaching staff can recruit).
  14. Oxy
    Up it to 5/$90M, and you might pull it off - albeit if you can get Grandal to defer the payments. $10 million bonus $16 million/year for 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. Are we bidding against ouselves here? Nah. Clancy is bidding against me. He can have him if those aren't option years.
  15. Oxy
    Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage. I agree 100%. Gimenez didn't live up to expectations in AA (.250/.305/.695 OPS). The Mets downgraded him after his showing in there. Smith did well, but he's a 1B and easily replaceable. Vientos is still in A ball and 3-4 years away. Newton stunk in A ball (.209/.283) and is 4-5 years away IF he gets that far. All together the package isn't close to what Hader is worth to the Brewers. They get an Ok 1B and nothing else for years, if at all. You guys are probably right, but I just have some horrible feeling that either Hader gets hurt as is done for a year and never comes back right or downright loses his command and the BBs skyrocket before the already way-too-high HR rate and he is quickly a borderline MLBer let alone dominant closer. Call me jaded by 30 Brewer years of 1-2 years of an elite closer and then worthlessness...
  16. Oxy
    I would have agreed with this in July. A true blue chip prospect plus a few high upside guys. However, now we also save $5-$6M this year (+ likely $10-12M in his arby 4 2023 year). That trade value website dropped his suplus value from around $80M to around $48M. We might get one blue chipper now, but I don't want to put all my eggs in one prospect basket... Those are 4 high upside guys at positions of extreme need for the franchise. I think that's about as good as we are going to get.
  17. Oxy
    Offer Grandal 5/75M. 2020-$18M, 2021- $18M, 2022- $15M, 2023 team option $12M, $5M buyout, 2024- team option 12M, $2M buyout. That's 56M guaranteed. 3-5 years of control and team flexibility. The guy is really good and versatile (switch hitter, can play 1st). He is a huge part of the lineup, a good value WAR-wise, and we've got the money to spend.
  18. Oxy
    July was the time...now is the next best time. We need a haul of youngsters.
  19. Oxy
    Hader to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (blocked), Dom Smith (blocked), Mark Vientos and Shervyn Newton. All of a sudden we actually have some position player prospects with one ready to play everyday this year (Smith), and one who is fairly close (Gimenez) plus a couple other interesting guys. Controllable young talent! We need some.
  20. Oxy
    You don't pay Grandal the likely $20 million per year for 3-4 years he's going to command to be a 1st baseman. That production can be attained much cheaper. He would be signed to be the team's dominant catcher. Abreu appears to be the best bet on the market for 1st basemen. He is older, though. I suggest Nick Castellanos in another thread, and still like him as a possibility if he'd be willing to be a 1st baseman. I also think that you have to look at Braun seeing major time there, as I have to believe that Grisham is set for a major role on next year's team. In an ideal world this is true, but if we look for cheap options at 1B there will be a decent risk that they flame out a la Aguilar, or they are a platoon guy (Thames). If Grandal is the best bat at 1B, we should probably start him there 40-50 games and start him at catcher 90-110 games. Hopefully he isn't the bast bat at 1B. As you say, it shouldn't be "the plan," but it may very well work out that way.
  21. Oxy
    That totally defeats the purpose of signing Grandal. Yah, why pay Grandal $20mil a year to play half his time at 1B and be average. Poor use of money/personnel. Perhaps more like 90 games at C. The point is he can't catch 150 games...and if he catches 130 games he'll get worn down playing 1b 20 -30 other games. Plus, Pina is pretty good (better than Grandal behind the plate) and likely better if he can catch 70-80 games rather than 30 games. If we can get a 1B that is equal/better than Grandal's bat then sure, let him catch 130 or so, but if not, I'd rather have him in the lineup near everyday and only catch 90 games or so--ESPECIALLY if we sign him for 3-4 years as he'll likely age much better with a slightly reduced workload. Right now he is signed for 0 years though, so it's kind of a silly discussion.
  22. Oxy
    Well- "veterans signed", anyway. It's a bit misleading, as everybody with less than 6 years of MLB time aren't technically "signed," but they aren't going anywhere unless traded.
  23. Oxy
    This an odd post, as the 2nd most productive player on the market is a guy we just let go and could have had for a modest $7.5M. Hopefully the trade market is more robust than that list...
  24. Oxy
    I'll say they sign Grandal and have him play 1st for 75 games and catch for 75 games.
  25. Oxy
    This is all a bit odd. Pretty much everybody wanted Anderson and Thames traded last offseason and they were retained...then both went on to have good years that seemingly re-couped their value and looked to be decent veteran depth pieces heading into next year. Now both are gone, the roster is very thin and we have a lot of cash... I like the confidence Stearns has to shake things up and make the most of the cash...we'll see. I think/hope we are going after Grandal.
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