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umphrey

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Everything posted by umphrey

  1. umphrey
    I can't believe I'm defending Hiura, I wouldn't mind seeing him go, but wasn't he a better hitter last year than Winker and Tellez?
  2. umphrey
    I was excited to see what Ruiz could do but this trade was 100% necessary the moment it became available
  3. umphrey
    119 WRc+ is an upgrade for us. He finished with .277/.333/.504 in his last 154 PAs. If he was as good as he used to be, he would be too expensive.
  4. umphrey
    I didn’t want to start a new thread but I was wondering why there wasn’t talk about signing JD Martinez? He seems like the last FA hitter out there that would really impact the offense and isn’t completely out of our price range.
  5. umphrey
    Josh Bell has been very inconsistent in his career. I don't think Milwaukee is the place for him, We get the worst of all the hitters that come here. Sign me up for Abreu though. I think that guy is going to play until he's 40, doesn't need any coaching whatsoever and I don't even care if the power comes back if he hits .300 and takes walks.
  6. umphrey
    Josh Bell has been very inconsistent in his career. I don't think Milwaukee is the place for him, We get the worst of all the hitters that come here. Sign me up for Abreu though. I think that guy is going to play until he's 40, doesn't need any coaching whatsoever and I don't even care if the power comes back if he hits .300 and takes walks.
  7. umphrey
    There are a lot of scenarios that could play out with Burnes and Woodruff. If they get traded away, I think the most likely is they go out as a 3 month rental. I think the 2nd most likely is that they get traded in the off-season then quickly sign an extension.
  8. umphrey
    I don’t think there is any urgency to trade woodruff or burnes and I don’t think they will do it. 2 years of control vs. 1 year of control, I don’t think it affects the return that much. Trade some other pitcher and/or some MiLB outfielders instead. We have a lot of minor league ammo right now.
  9. umphrey
    What a wacky market. I have retirement accounts that are very long term so I don't make big changes to those based on short term events. I also have taxable accounts and I feel somewhat limited on those because big sales mean big taxes. So I often end up making small changes at most.
  10. umphrey
    You could look into Personal Capital or Quicken. I have decided I will never use a tool that takes my login info though. There are a lot of concerns about security, usability and privacy. So I ended up back in Excel, where I have some pretty advanced spreadsheets. One of them does that but it assumes constant allocations over the past so many days and probably doesn't capture dividends correctly. I haven't yet thought it was worth the effort to capture all my buy/sell orders.
  11. umphrey
    I did like Olson, but nothing really changed with him since the trade. That article is a little overly bubbly.
  12. umphrey
    Between inflation, record sales, and the great resignation, companies are having a hard time filling jobs. Ask for a good salary.
  13. umphrey
    Looks like the S&P will be flirting with market correction territory tomorrow. Can’t say I’m excited to buy the dip due to rising interest rates and continued supply chain issues.
  14. umphrey
    First of several rate hikes is expected in about 2 months so get your loans in now. Also I feel like it really kills any upside in the broad market for the next year. The experts like to say that they are already priced in but I feel like the market more often prices in good news compared to bad news.
  15. umphrey
    Interesting. That is genius if the interest rate is lower than what is on the mortgage. If the mortgage rate is lower than the HELOC, I don't know if I agree. Plus it saves you the closing costs. I feel like I'm missing something here because HELOCs are (quick google) much higher than mortgages. Above 4% while my mortgage is 3% and a new mortgage would be 2.65%.
  16. umphrey
    Buying a house is basically a hedge against inflation. It sets your rent to a constant value and gives you a huge asset that tracks inflation. Since inflation has been so high, it makes PMI look great because it got you that inflation hedge. If inflation drops (which the fed is clearly trying to make happen) then PMI won't look so good. House values won't increase at the same rate as the past year, although plenty of other things affect house value.
  17. umphrey
    I would think diversifying is better? If I understand current rules correctly in retirement you could take $40k of income from your traditional and it get taxed at 12%. But your current Roth deposits are probably taxed at 22% or above.
  18. umphrey
    It's more useful than you might think. I check in on a few other internet sources on these topics but they often hit wildly different demographics. Like I don't care about your San Francisco housing budget or how an 18 year old should invest a big inheritance. Tell me about some regular guy from Milwaukee, haha.
  19. umphrey
    I have a house at 3% and a car at 0.9% and I'm not paying a cent early on either one. Would rather invest it. Can make more money in the market. Plus i really like the flexibility of having a nice taxable investment account to dip into from time to time for big purchases.
  20. umphrey
    I always thought it was a big oversight to not talk about Roth vs. Trad in retirement planning. 70% income in a Roth is a lifestyle upgrade but 70% in traditional is a downgrade.
  21. umphrey
    I've seen several people say this. Olson hasn't shown much other than he walks a lot of guys. Am I missing something with him? Has been trending in the right direction with a good start to the year, a velo bump up to 97 and with 3-4 pitches looks likely to stick as a starter. Though had a few poor starts in 2nd half of 2021.
  22. umphrey
    Why Reese Olson for this dud
  23. umphrey
    Shorting is a losing strategy though since markets go up over time, unless you can reliably outsmart the market, something most people can’t do in their free time. You can make money in a down market by rebalancing into cheap stocks though.
  24. umphrey
    If it was me I would press a little bit and float the idea that I have other prospects in the works. Say something like "I would really like to work for your company, it is my first choice, but I don't intend to stay available on the market for long". Showing confidence in my abilities has always worked in the past. Make sure to time it right, maybe it's best to do that kind of thing early Monday morning rather than later in the week and if you have any feel for the flow of their business try to do it during a positive time.
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