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umphrey

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Everything posted by umphrey

  1. umphrey
    It's better to look at playoff odds I think. For example the nationals are 38-43 but 1% playoff odds and clear cut sellers. There are some other fringe teams in the 20% to 50% that could go either way like the giants. Just depends on organizational plans, the owner, etc.
  2. umphrey
    Maybe Frelick or Chourio can go down to AAA for a bit? Was also wondering about the pitching. I think Ross, Junis and Hall are expected to come back this summer, and it's kind of a weird spot because yes we need them, no we can't afford to get rid of much starting pitching to make room, and further we will probably want to trade for 1 or 2 guys.
  3. umphrey
    Idk doesn't seem like too bad of a trade to me. Lara I don't think we would miss and Wichrowski, I haven't followed him too close but he's still kind of a lottery ticket in my eyes.
  4. umphrey
    I’m quite happy to have Hoskins and Sanchez on this roster. Would do those again 💯. Miley, yeah, but it was a gamble and we lost.
  5. umphrey
    Someone tell me I shouldn’t be worried about Ashby’s 7.83 BB/9 in 43 innings in AAA this year
  6. umphrey
    This article is worth a read regarding reliever value https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-you-cant-trade-your-newfound-reliever-for-a-shiny-prospect/ Milner isn’t really a guy that ONLY has a few good months but he is 33 years old with only maybe 150 good innings. He’s definitely not a Hader, he hasn’t really been a closer and he gets a matchup advantage quite often. So yeah we have some bullpen guys like him with good numbers but their trade value is pretty negligible except for the 1 or 2 guys that are really elite like Williams.
  7. umphrey
    I would go hard for Luzardo. Hate to lose Mis when we need pitching but yeah Quero and Mis I would probably do it. Can even flip Luzardo in 2 years for prospects again potentially. That 2025 rotation with Woodruff and maybe Ashby/Gasser would be nice.
  8. umphrey
    If you think the 2024 brewers have offense problems like weak contact, behind in count, etc. It's almost definitely just your perception lying to you after a bad game. Their offense has been amazing all year, top 5. Unbelievably good.
  9. umphrey
    I once thought of him as a dark horse breakout candidate but it looks like that ship has sailed. Still 0.2 WAR though and seems to take more crap than he deserves. Same WAR as Frelick for example.
  10. umphrey
    Burnes is a great pitcher. I hope he does well. I don’t think anyone wanted to trade him because they thought he was bad. I just look at our side of the trade and hope we got players back in Hall and Ortiz. I think it’s a bad thing if the brewers trade away a guy and he busts, it’s better for us in future trades if the other team isnt getting screwed on a regular basis.
  11. umphrey
    I don’t like watching DL Hall games anymore
  12. umphrey
    This thread probably got derailed but the original question, $14M AAV on the will Smith deal is a lie. It's probably more like 6 years $140M and cut him at age 35, that's $23M AAV. So for Contreras the equivalent deal would be 10 years $233M or something like that. Or 6 and $140M I guess.
  13. umphrey
    DL Hall games are my favorite right now. Excited to see if we can turn him into a good starter.
  14. umphrey
    Next 10 comments are people flaming them for batting Dunn 5th at DH ->
  15. umphrey
    I'm really thankful to have perkins now 😂 without him it would be Wiemer vs. Miles Straw probably. Not that Wiemer is a bad option but would really like to start him in AAA.
  16. umphrey
    Yeah if it were me this wouldn’t change much with the roster plan. Someone like Haase or Bauers gets a roster spot now and the Frelick 3b experiment might get put on hold or it might be down to 1-2 starts per week there.
  17. umphrey
    This is a slight over reaction but I’m about ready to give up on Mitchell. If 2024 turns into a lost year then I don’t know how he can bounce back from that.
  18. umphrey
    Hoping to see some fresh names instead of retreads. But if I check the ticker myself most of the names have been on the roster at some point 😂
  19. umphrey
    When we know that we actually have an OF surplus and not a collection of AAAA players and 4th OFs
  20. umphrey
    Montgomery and Snell aren’t really in the “can’t find a team, might need a short term deal” situation. More like “lots of teams want me, drive up the length of the contract and AAV as much as possible”.
  21. umphrey
    It's going to be a weird year. Freddy hopefully gets 160+ innings which is about his career high that he's hit once. Besides him, we have 9 other guys, not one of them likely to go much more than 100 innings, but all likely to get a number of starts. And I'm pretty sure a lot of innings will get filled by names not in the org right now.
  22. umphrey
    Kind of a weird one but we would have heard if he was back on the market I think so I'd guess one of the theories like they are waiting to make a roster move. Failed physical still possible but those usually get sorted pretty quick I think. Maybe they need to sign Woodruff and IL him?
  23. umphrey
    Hard to say but probably in the 2m to 8m range of guarantees. It's not nothing but it's barely some fringe money for sub replacement level player(s) over 2 years. I'll raise an eyebrow if it comes out at $15m+.
  24. umphrey
    There's really no way this is a contract that is so expensive that it will impact us in a significant way
  25. umphrey
    There are a couple guys on the roster that I'm looking at thinking maybe 2023 Julio Teheran season is a good guess. I'm hoping the MiLB and maybe a trade can make the SP group good. Ashby Gasser Mis Carlos Rodriguez. And if the playoffs are in our future run it like that 2019 (?) team and go bullpen games in the playoffs.
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