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xisxisxis

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Everything posted by xisxisxis

  1. Nice way to completely innaccurately paraphrase my positions on the matters at hand. I'm shocked! That never happens at Brewerfan.net. I stand by my opinion that Sabermetrics isn't science, that's complex mathematical analysis, and the 2 things are not the same. Plugging numbers into equations (that there is no mathematical proof for, only hypothesis) doesn't constitute science in my opinion. Applied math/statistics wants to create an equation to explain everything. Unfortunately there isn't a good understanding of the number of variables and what orders they interact. We're told that they know the important variables so that it doesn't matter if we only have an equation that accounts for a small fraction of the variables. Of course it's those pesky minor variables that lead to dead patients due to drug side effects or the teams that score more runs than they allow in a year, but have a losing record. I'd rather be a fan of the baseball team with "unlucky" variance than the patient who's coin landed on the wrong side. I said that I utilize Sabermetrics as part of my view of a player, it's just not my entire view. There's a good book you should read by Jonathan Kirsch (inbox me for reference). I said Sabermetrics cannot accurately predict the outcome of a given AB in today's game, nor the outcome of the game itself. Thankfully nothing can predict the outcome of a given AB, nor the outcome of a game. That's why we play them and they're so enjoyable. In fact, I was giving my opinion about the proper time to pull a plug on player, and that we the fan's generally are not armed with all of the information available. As fans we tend to second guess (or billionth guess) the manager/management for every move. Other than a few apologists to the manager/management most people would agree that fans have the right to second guess what goes on. Where we as fans get into trouble is when we minimize the information that we don't have access to as trivial or unimportant in the decision making paradigm. I'm as guilty as anyone for this, but until all of the information is known we don't really know whether that "missing" information was critical. Its like taking in account my mass when determining how hard gravity pulls me down. Sure technically I'm pulling the earth towards me but in practice it can be safely ignored. Can you point me to the data that shows that any hypothesis in sabermetrics equats to the Theory of Gravity. Some of the early theories on gravity didn't take into account mass. So under that situation it was entirely reasonable to ignore weight. This is where sabermetrics gets into trouble - when it's touted as being as accurate as an extensively tested and proven theory. While I understand you are just making an analogy, the implication is clear - those who don't believe in sabermetrics are simple minded individuals who don't understand the difference in mass between the earth and a person. Where this whole issue breaks down is the assertion that any of the sabermetric theories/hypothesis are correct. I'll be a believer when I see the proof.
  2. We owe a 35-year-old Jeff Suppan $12.5M in 2010. Doug, when did you become part owner of the Brewers? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  3. What did Bill Murray whisper in Scarlett Johannsen's ear at the end of LOST IN TRANSLATION? Murray: "Who's more over-rated? Sophia or her father?"
  4. 3 way tie: To Kill A Mockingbird by Harper Lee Lonesome Dove by Larry McMurtry Grapes of Wrath by John Steinbeck Simply impossible to put down.
  5. I would think their abilities to draft the Barry Zitos, Nick Swishers, Mark Mulders, and Tim Hudsons of the world would have a lot of people envying the Athletics' ideas about drafting. Or Grady Fuson. "Moneyball" drafts have returned little except a ton of PR and a fawning book by wunderkind turned blow-hard Michael Lewis. Jack Z has been swinging for the fences drafting high ceiling HS players in the first/early rounds over the last few years with little success (yet). I've consistently hated those picks. I like this years draft and what seems more of an emphasis on production with potential than tools and ceiling. I actually don't see much difference in the pick of Laporta compared to say, Prince Fielder, both appeared to be the best hitter available (Laporta is just a college player and Fielder was a HS player). You can argue that Laporta doesn't have the same ceiling, but he has the advantage of performing at a higher level of competition prior to drafting and therefore, a smaller chance of being a bust. So few players make it to the majors from the draft that you really need to draft a combination of high ceiling HS players and players with numbers against better competition with a perceived lower ceiling. And while I hope Laporta is better than Hatteberg, don't underestimate the value of having a 1st round pick develop into a Hatteberg versus and Williamson or Green or Krynzel. Look at the first round picks from the last 10-15 years and you realize that it's still a crapshoot even with players perceived to be the best of the lot.
  6. Nice AB by Hall so far. What is this 9, 10 pitches something like that? Unfortunately, the same ol' result.
  7. If CV can go 15 innings we might win.
  8. That must be a first....an IBB for Counsell.....the world is upside down.
  9. Runner on 2B, no outs and the Brewers score.....ZERO! Bring back Wyneger.
  10. Another SB off Estrada sets up a Rangers run.....man sometimes I hate this team.....hopefully Eyer beans in the go ahead run.
  11. I really like the first 4 picks in this years draft. (No that shouldn't be in blue). Whether that's a good sign for the Brewers or not, I'm not sure. While Laporta wasn't on the radar he makes perfect sense and if he's a passable LF I think we may have the steal of the draft (Fielder II anyone, and I am eating crow for my reservations about Prince). Depending on how Lucroy does this year, he could jump to the top of my catcher depth chart in the organization. If we can just keep Yost away from him, he might develop into a good ML catcher instead of a (s)crappy backup. Farris (depending on his progression) might make it easier for the Brewers to cut ties with an underachieving Weeks and Gindl is a nice addition to our ever-expanding toolsy OF prospect list. I personally think Jenkins is gone after this season, especially if we make the playoffs. I don't think Melvin wants to spend the money simply for a stopgap when the money will be needed to start locking up Prince/Hardy and/or Cappy/extend Sheets. Jenks days are numbered (especially as he's back into one of his patented/trademarked cold streaks.) Congrats Jack on the best first 5 rounds I've seen while you've been with the Brewers!
  12. I'm starting to heavily lean towards getting an Olevia. I'm not sure whether to go with a 32 or 37 in though (i've ruled out 27 as being too small). I think I'll wait until August/Sept to get it though to see if any price drops happen or any new products are released. I'm late to the party....Ben did a great job of summarizing some of the features to evaluate....from buying 2 HDTV in little over a year (1 for me, 1 for my mom) my only advice is that you shouldn't listen to anyone's opinion about picture quality except your 2 eyes. I read some of the reviews before going into the store and it was clear that what I liked and disliked was different than what the reviews said and what other people in the store liked (and they were different from each other as well). Panasonic had a highly rated Plasma model (about a year ago), but in the store a Phillips Plasma model looked better to me (they were all playing the same digital HD feed). Really let your eyes be the the gauge you use to evaluate which model "looks" the best, then evaluate other options and decide which is the best.
  13. It's the Arizona/White Sox/Rangers of the worlds that often end up dancing with him. I agree, but I do think it's cyclical. The Dodgers will be back in a few years when the distaste from the Hochevar mess is mostly gone. We'll see if the new signing deadline has ANY effect whatsoever. That will be interesting, but it doesn't seem like too many GMs are good at playing poker (well at least not as good as Boras at bluffing) so I see teams ending up panicking before Agents.
  14. Firing Nedly anytime soon would smack of desperation (and we know that Melvin isn't desperate to put out a winner). I'd say it's more likely that Rosie ODonnell passes a Dunkin Donuts than Nedly getting fired.
  15. I'm feeling a Wieters - Boras induced drop to double digits. I'm not an expert, but it seems that even though his clients drop they still get way more money than their position would indicate (per slot money). So his players drop to teams that already are better and richer so the teams like the cardinals, dodgers, cubs etc. who have the money end up getting better talent than teams like the Brewers, Royals, Pirates pass on better talent because of fears about asking price and end up giving the big wallet teams exactly what they want.
  16. Welcome back Greg! The contrarions are back in numbers! Viva le difference!
  17. Why is getting an extra inning out of a pretty solid Villanueva to keep the rest of the pen fresh is a bad idea for some reason? And how did that work tonight? Ned panicked at the first sign of trouble and yanked CV. I'm sure that worked wonders on CV confidence. I guess it's the Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde routine from Ned. He fixates on hitter's, often goes 1 hitter too many for his starters then yanks one of his best relievers after 1 BB when he planned on resting his bullpen. If there was some consistency to his moves I'd be less inclined to think he manages by lower brain activity knee jerk responses than actual strategy.
  18. Once the Brewers went up by 4, it was impossible for Nedly to use Turnbow and CoCo since it wasn't a save opportunity. It says so in the book "Managing a Major League Baseball Team for Dummies".
  19. The patient is out of his coma....
  20. The charge may be applied against someone who had intent to disable or disfigure another person by cutting or mutilating the tongue, eye, ear, nose, lip, limb or other body part, according to Wisconsin state statutes. Also known as the Mike Tyson charge or the Lorena Bobbit experimental procedure.
  21. They're not too worried about our 6-9 hitters this evening. Most little league teams would feast on our 6-9 hitters.
  22. That, my friends, is the most positive comment ever made by David....at least on this site. This is a momentous step. You got me here, now to keep me you'll need to serve refreshments....
  23. This is a win-win situation for me - if the brewers make the playoffs we all win, if they don't then I'm 99.9% sure that Ned Yost will be fired and I win. I'm one optimistic pessimist these days.
  24. The Brewers never take the guys I hope they will. I am really really hoping it is Aumont. (Maybe that'll work.) You're powers of jinxing a pick are primitive compared to Patrick's. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Don't forget HS RHP are to Jack Z what Katie Holmes is to Geno so I should have plenty of material for the Draft chat room.
  25. Now this is the Jason Marquis I remember, not the sub 3 era imposter.... let's get a ton of runs for when Bush melts down and Nedly leaves him in 1 batter too many....
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