Eye Black

I’m going to start adding the Statcast game preview link to the main Game Thread post. Without looking at the link, can someone name the starting hitter with the fast sprint speed this season among either team’s lineup? Hint: It’s a Phillies player who was a former teammate with the Brewers sprint speed leader.

I’m not sure classifying Zack Wheeler as just some 9 ERA pitcher really captures the nuance of the matchup. He’s a top tier pitcher who had at least an argument to be the NL CY Young winner last year, and has been very good against the Brewers throughout his career. He’s had a 1.96 ERA against Milwaukee over 46.0 career innings.

LINK: Baseball Savant Game Preview

Death by paper cuts was a good way to describe this one.

I know it's easier said than done, but if you're ever going to take one in the thigh for the team that was probably the opportunity for Caratini.

Knebel has pitched an inning in each of his 5 appearances this year and has thrown more than 13 pitches just once. That's pretty efficient.

Speaking of Segura, I felt extra old yesterday when I realized he ranks as having the 24th most career hits among all active MLB'ers. Feels like just yesterday the Brewers traded Greinke for him.

Sorry if someone answered this already (I'm just catching up), but here are his numbers with the changeup coming into tonight... Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2022 Changeup 28 13 15 17.0 86.6 10 7 3 2 1 0 0 4 3 .429 .277 .571 .366 .519 .401 91.5 13 1836 7.1 50.0 26.7

I still have PTSD from Freddy’s start in Philadelphia last May 5th when he gave up five earned runs including a grand slam to Didi Gregarious before recording a single out in the game.

One matchup to watch is Freddy Peralta facing off with Nick Castellanos. To this point Castellanos has been a complete thorn in Peralta’s side going 7-for-13 including 4 doubles, a home run, and a walk. Another chance for the Brewers to face off against a southpaw starter. As bad as the Brewers were against LHP last year, they’ve been completely atrocious in a limited sample this season. Here are the Brewers team splits against LHP from last year and this year: The Brewers are guaranteed for some positive regression versus LHP at some point, and there’s no better time to start those improvements than the present. One possible separator in this series could be defense. So far the Phillies are last in baseball with -7 defensive runs saved. Especially bad has been shortstop (-3), right field (-4), and first base (-2). The Brewers on the other hand are tied for 5th best at 7 team defensive runs saved. Statistics courtesy of Fielding Bible.

Last year's team didn't win four games in a row until the last weekend of May.

It seems like hitters are picking up Devin's changeup better then in the past. At least in the early going he's induced less chasing out of the zone then normal.

Bringing Devin into the game with two runners on base... interesting.

I think the lineup bashing would be better received if either (1) it wasn't included in nearly every thread you participate in, or (2) it occasionally didn't come across as the sky is falling and everything is hopeless. Of course there is another option (3): Funny Memes...

I think there is a universe in which Hiura can basically replicate Chris Carter's 2016 season. Unfortunately that feels like his 70 or 80 percent outcome at this point.

Yeah, shame on you [says the guy who just traded him to the A's]

I think Oakland would be the perfect sort of team to acquire Keston and give him a long leash at the MLB level.

They also brought up Keon Broxton breaking his wrist when he slammed into the Wrigley wall in 2016. The part I forgot about is Broxton smashed into the Wrigley wall making a catch again the following season [in the nearly identical spot], but avoided serious injury the second time around.

Wow, alright Kolten. Hadn’t been his finest week defensively, but that was pretty outstanding.

That at bat was a good reflection of the Hunter Renfroe experience. He missed a slider by nearly a full foot, and then put the very next pitch, also a slider, into the second deck.

Despite the flyout that was good contact from Yelich. A 100-mph line drive over 350ft (at a 22 degree launch angle) to the opposite field with be an extra base hit more often than not.

Yelich's 2022 expected batting stats per Statcast are by far the best on the team: Rk. Player PA Pos BIP BA xBA Diff SLG xSLG Diff wOBA xwOBA Diff 1 Yelich, Christian 43 LF 22 .242 .282 -0.040 .455 .565 -0.110 .380 .416 -0.036 The only thing giving me pause a little bit is that expected stats across the entire league are currently under performing actual stats by quite a bit (BA by -0.020; SLG by -0.068, wOBA by -0.025). I assume that's due to a combination of possible factors including weather, humidors in all parks, as well as MLB presumably only using one type of baseball this year (the deadened one) instead of the two different baseballs they used last season. Still, Yelich has significantly under performed his expected stats even if you take into consideration the league wide gap, especially his Expected Slugging. Even if you look at Yelich's actual line right now, .242 BA / .455 SLG / .380 wOBA, that would still be a massive upgrade over his performance last year. If the expected stats are unto something and he ends up with a >.500 SLG coupled with a high OBP then he'll provide enough to be the impact bat they need to him to be.

Since his debut in 2020 JT Brubaker has had some success against the Brewers over 4 total starts (especially as compared to his stats against other NL Central clubs): Split ERA G IP H ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP SO9 Milwaukee Brewers 4.29 4 21.0 17 10 4 5 26 3 1.048 11.1 Corbin Burnes has been mostly dominant in his appearances against the Pirates although he’s somehow only started against Pittsburgh 4 times (12 relief appearances): Split ERA G IP H ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP SO9 Pittsburgh Pirates 2.82 16 38.1 33 12 1 11 47 0 1.148 11.0