Eye Black

Madison Bumgarner’s Steamer projections for next season... [pre]Season W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR 2019 11 12 32 203.0 8.13 2.52 1.17 .289 72.8 % 41.6 % 3.92 4.00 4.18 2.1[/pre]

So you honestly think Baumgarner’s trade value for one season of control is closer to bringing back a haul of Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, Corey Ray than a return of Zack Brown and Troy Stokes? I guess you value Baumgarner as way closer to being a current ace than I do. I don’t necessarily think Brown and Stokes alone would get it done, but I also don’t think it is that incredibly far off either. Maybe the Giants do indeed demand Woodruff, which I certainly don’t think is unreasonable on their end. But they may be willing to entertain offers that don’t include Woodruff or other current Brewers major league arms. Using a choose your own adventure scenario I think fair value for one season of Baumgarner would be something along the lines of... Group A (Pick One) Corey Ray Tristen Lutz Zack Brown Brice Turang Group B (Pick One) Mauricio Dubon Troy Stokes Lucas Erceg Carlos Rodriguez Group C (Pick One) Aaron Ashby Marcos Diplan Trey Supak Je’Von Ward

I don’t think the Brewers would entertain giving up Burnes for him. Woodruff might be more likely, but still seems slightly high. I think an offer along the lines of Zack Brown and Troy Stokes would be competitive for one year of Bumgarner.

Derek Dietrich has reportedly cleared waivers. He is now a free agent.

From the Jon Paul Morosi article: ”The Brewers and Phillies are among the teams that have had at least preliminary dialogue about trading for Bumgarner, sources say.”

Obviously it’s pretty difficult to discern what he is referencing, but based on his second comment, “sometimes you have to give a wake up call”, I don’t think it has to do with a possible free agent acquisition. Just total speculation on my part, but my guess is that it isn’t something related to player acquisition. Maybe it’s something related to training methods, player development, or the turnover in the athletic training area. Again, just speculation. It does seem a little strange and reckless to send those tweets with no additional context.

From MLB Trade Rumors regarding the Brewers interest in J.A. Happ...

Some additional analysis of Yusei Kikuchi in this Fangraphs article from Jeff Sullivan: The Next Starting Pitcher To Come From Japan

Here are the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects by Team that were left unprotected for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft... Arizona Diamondbacks 7. Marcus Wilson, OF 22. Alex Young, LHP 23. Cody Reed, LHP Atlanta Braves 22. Travis Demeritte, OF 28. Josh Graham, RHP Baltimore Orioles 29. Luis Gonzalez, LHP Boston Red Sox 10. Josh Ockimey, 1B 21. Jhonathan Diaz, LHP 23. Roldani Baldwin, C 27. Roniel Raudes, RHP Chicago Cubs 17. Trevor Clifton, RHP 26. Erling Moreno, RHP Chicago White Sox 26. Spencer Adams, RHP Cincinnati Reds 22. Michael Beltre, OF Cleveland Indians 20. Oscar Gonzalez, OF Colorado Rockies 19. Breiling Eusebio, LHP 23. Roberto Ramos, 1B 25. Brian Mundell, 1B 27. Dom Nunez, C Detroit Tigers 19. Jose Azocar, OF 24. Tyler Alexander, LHP 29. Derek Hill, CF Houston Astros 17. Riley Ferrell, RHP 24. Jonathan Arauz, SS Kansas City Royals 23. Elvis Luciano, RHP 28. D.J. Burt, SS 29. Foster Griffin, LHP 30. Ofreidy Gomez, RHP Los Angeles Angels 15. Leonardo Rivas, SS 18. Luis Pena, RHP 28. Joe Gatto, RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 19. Drew Jackson, SS 24. Cristian Santana, SS 29. Andrew Sopko, RHP Miami Marlins 18. Christopher Torres, SS 26. Brayan Hernandez, CF 30. McKenzie Mills, LHP Milwaukee Brewers 10. Jake Gatewood, 1B 17. Cody Ponce, RHP 28. Carlos Herrera, RHP Minnesota Twins 16. Lewin Diaz, RF 22. Tyler Jay, LHP New York Mets 19. Luis Carpio, SS 21. David Thompson, 3B 25. Ali Sanchez, C 27. Patrick Mazeika, C New York Yankees None Oakland A's 12. Richie Martin, SS 27. James Naile, RHP Philadelphia Phillies 12. Daniel Brito, SS 16. Jose Gomez, SS 27. Tom Eshelman, RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 19. Gage Hinsz, RHP 24. Brandon Waddell, LHP 28. Domingo Robles, LHP San Diego Padres None San Francisco Giants 8. Sandro Fabian, OF 18. Juan De Paula, RHP 23. Jordan Johnson, RHP 28. C.J. Hinojosa, SS/2B Seattle Mariners 17. Art Warren, RHP 21. Rob Whalen, RHP 23. Ian Miller, OF 26. Anthony Jimenez, OF 27. Luis Liberato, OF 29. Ronald Rosario, OF 30. Anthony Misiewicz, LHP St. Louis Cardinals 11. Max Schrock, 2B 14. Junior Fernandez, RHP 23. Wadye Ynfante, OF Tampa Bay Rays None Texas Rangers 17. Pedro Gonzalez, OF 30. Edgar Arredondo, RHP Toronto Blue Jays 25. Forrest Wall, OF 28. Jordan Romano, RHP Washington Nationals 13. Telmito Agustin, OF 24. Tomas Alastre, RHP 25. Jose Marmolejos, 1B/OF 29. Drew Ward, 3B/1B

Some of the more notable players available... Richie Martin (SS, A’s) Kean Wong (2B, Rays) Max Schrock (2B, Cardinals) Riley Ferrell (RHP, Astros) Braxton Davidson (OF/1B, Braves) Foster Griffin (LHP, Royals) Forrest Wall (OF, Blue Jays) Some other familiar names that were high draft picks in 2014 and 2015 include Tyler Kolek, Tyler Jay, Derek Hill, Jon Harris, Kyle Holder and Chase Vallot.

Huh, the Marlins DFA’d Utility Player Derek Dietrich. I assume they are going to work out a trade involving Dietrich. From NBC Sports:

Another catcher potentially available via trade... Per Ken Rosenthal:

I locked it because when that second thread was started we already had six posts about the same transaction in the Minor League transactions thread. I was trying to consolidate the discussion to one place. If it would have been posted in the MLB forum prior to the discussion in the Minor League transactions thread I would have left it alone.

From the link above... Competitive Balance Rounds A and B take place after the completion of the first and second rounds, respectively. No longer determined by lottery, all teams that fell in the bottom 10 in revenue or bottom 10 in market size got a pick in Round A in 2017, after the first round, or Round B, following the second round. A formula that takes revenue and winning percentage into account was used to award six Round A picks in 2017, with eight teams getting Comp Round B picks that year. Last year, the groups of teams switched places, with eight Comp Round A picks and six in Round B, with Major League Baseball re-running the aforementioned formula. No teams dropped out, but the order in each round changed as a result. The 2019 Comp Round A will be back to six picks, with the Marlins, Rays, Reds, A's, Brewers and Twins, in that order, getting selections that currently will be picks 34 through 40 (the Pirates have a supplemental pick at No. 37 for not signing Gunnar Hoglund, the 36th pick in 2018). The Round B order will be Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Padres, D-backs, Rockies, Indians and Cardinals. As of now, those selections will be picks No. 71 through 78. The order and current pick numbers of Competitive Balance Rounds A and B are below. Pick numbers are subject to change based on trades (Competitive Balance Round picks can be traded) and qualifying offer free-agent signings. Round A 34. Miami Marlins 35. Tampa Bay Rays 36. Cincinnati Reds 37. Pittsburgh Pirates* 38. Oakland A's 39. Milwaukee Brewers 40. Minnesota Twins * Compensation for not signing Gunnar Hoglund in 2018 Round B 71. Kansas City Royals 72. Baltimore Orioles 73. Pittsburgh Pirates 74. San Diego Padres 75. Arizona Diamondbacks 76. Colorado Rockies 77. Cleveland Indians 78. St. Louis Cardinals There are still changes that will come to the Draft order, starting with what happens with qualifying-offer free agent signing deals. Those deals will have some impact on what the Draft beyond the top picks looks like. Six of the seven free agents who received offers rejected them, with Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu took a one-year, $17.9 million offer, becoming only the sixth player to accept among the 80 to receive offers since 2012. Here are the six free agents who declined a qualifying offer, and what Draft compensation their 2018 teams stand to receive if the players sign elsewhere: Astros -- Dallas Keuchel: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B D-backs -- Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock: A) If either player signs for at least $50 million: Pick between 1st round and Competitive Balance Round A B) If either player signs for less than $50 million: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B Dodgers -- Yasmani Grandal: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B Nationals -- Bryce Harper: Pick after Round 4 Red Sox -- Craig Kimbrel: Pick after Round 4

The Brewers were named Baseball America’s “Organization of the Year”.

Reportedly Yankees are sending LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams, and RHP Erik Swanson. That is about what I expected two years of James Paxton costing. Basically one top 30-50 range prospect and some other less heralded prospects.

Kurt Suzuki signed a two years for $10 million deal with the Washington Nationals. It takes one FA catching option off the market, but also significantly lessens the likelihood the Nationals will be in the mix to trade for Realmuto (or sign another FA catcher).

In the unlikely event the Brewers acquired Greinke I think it would have to include the Diamondbacks taking on Braun’s contract (and him somehow approving the trade). In order to move Greinke the Diamondbacks may end up taking someone else’s expensive contract. Based on their current roster I don’t think Braun is a good fit for them among options that fall into that category. Reportedly last off-season they discussed a Greinke trade with the Rangers that would have included Shin-Soo Choo.

Here are the new Marlins jerseys.

I am partial to this concept uniform/hat look that was shared last month (via @corralgraphics)...

1. Keston Hiura 2. Corey Ray 3. Tristen Lutz 4. Zack Brown 5. Brice Turang 6. Mauricio Dubon 7. Troy Stokes 8. Aaron Ashby 9. Lucas Erceg 10. Carlos Rodriguez 11. Jacob Nottingham 12. Payton Henry 13. Trey Supak 14. Adrian Houser 15. Marcos Diplan 16. Je’Von Ward 17. Caden Lemons 18. Jake Gatewood 19. Mario Feliciano 20. Tyrone Taylor 21. Joe Gray 22. Quintin Torres-Costa 23. Cody Ponce 24. Drew Rasmussen 25. Jolon Zhao ———————— 26. Trent Grisham 27. Micah Bello 28. Andres Melendez 29. Braden Webb 30. Eduarqi Fernandez 31. Larry Ernesto 32. Angel Perdomo 33. Pablo Abreu 34. Chad McClanahan 35. Yeison Coca

from an outing this past April when he was reportedly sitting 94-95 mph with his fastball. A note for those who watch the video, you may want to turn the sound off first.

Along those same lines, I predict when Paxton is ultimately traded this offseason the national reaction is going to be surprise that the Mariners didn't get more in return. I don't think they are going to get a top 30 prospect in baseball for him, I think it will be a few solid pieces that may even include a player or two that are already in MLB. I think a player such as J.T. Realmuto for instance is going to fetch a significantly larger return for two years of control.

The more I think about this, I think dealing with the Mariners to acquire James Paxton might be the perfect off-season move for the Brewers. Obviously acquiring a lefty starter to anchor the rotation for the next two years would be great. I also think the Mariners are in a spot where they will value major league talent with several years of control left. I don’t know exactly what combination of players would interest them, but I think Dipoto could be enticed by players such as Mauricio Dubon, Jesús Aguilar, Brandon Woodruff, former Mariners prospect Freddy Peralta, and even possibly a player like Domingo Santana. A lot of rebuilding teams are looking deeper into the farm system, but I think the Mariners will try to flip guys on their current roster for major leaguers with longer team control. To be clear, I also think the Brewers would have to give up prospects as well, but I think it would take a combination of 1 or 2 MLB ready players with 1 or 2 prospects to get Paxton.

That is accurate. The video has since been taken off YouTube, but last winter Eric Longenhagen appeared on a prospect video/podcast and said that when Kiley McDaniel was with the Braves they had Lutz in for a pre-draft workout. He said Lutz’s exit velo was “off the scale”. He verifies it was in the 110-115mph range which he referred to as “elite exit level velocity” for a high schooler.