Eye Black

Hah, I forgot about that silliness. Well then I can’t imagine he was a fan of the celebration after Broxton stole his home run to dead center this year. [sarcasm]Maybe the Brewers had to move Keon before Dozier would consider their FA offer.[/sarcasm]

Per Ken Rosenthal... Yankees progressing toward deal with free-agent reliever Zach Britton, sources tell The Athletic. Could be finalized soon. Update from Ken Rosenthal: Britton deal with Yankees is three years for about $40M, source tells The Athletic. NYY can exercise fourth-year option after second year. If they do not, Britton can opt out. Option would take deal beyond $50M. Opt-out details first reported by Jon Heyman and Jeff Passan.

Even though Gamel is more of a known quantity than any of these guys. I think you could pretty legitimately argue that the Broxton return was better than the Santana return. Stearns said there was additional interest in Broxton beyond just the Mets. I don’t remember hearing similar sentiments when Domingo was moved. I obviously don’t know this for certain, but I wonder if the number teams engaged in trade discussions involving Broxton was actually higher than Santana.

Felix Valerio had the second most plate appearances (303) in the Dominican Summer League last season. He had the fourth lowest strikeout rate (6.9%) among all qualified hitters in league. His .843 OPS and 146 wRC+ was far better than any of the Brewers qualified DSL hitters last season. He’s a long shot, but had a very solid professional debut.

Interesting. Adam Hill was a 4th round draft pick this past June. He had 26 Ks in 15 innings pitched. Not the worst thing to replenish the farm system a little. I assume Broxton would have been less likely to be traded if he still had any options remaining.

Conventional wisdom would say if you have a player that can cut it as shortstop in professional baseball you should continue to get him reps at the position until his performance says otherwise. The players referenced are more than a year apart in age, I don’t think staggering their progression through the system would be that difficult if it proves necessary.

A specific usage plan was part of the Mariners negotiations with Kikuchi per MLB.com reporter Greg Johns... Mariners sold Kikuchi and Boras on plan to limit innings in first year to help acclimate from Japanese routine of starting every 6-7 days. Want him to make 30-plus starts, but go with short start every 5 starts or so. Interesting concept.

In Ken Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic yesterday he had a nice anecdote about the Brewers 2005 draft coming down to deciding between Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Braun. He basically said the Brewers we looking to draft for need and find their future third baseman. He interviewed Jack Zduriencik who had contacted Tulowitzki’s agent, Paul Cohen, prior to the draft to see if Tulo was willing to move to 3B. This was the response he got... “Would Tulowitzki be interested if he had to move to third base?” Zduriencik asked. “Nah,” Cohen replied, “he’s not going to want to do that.” Later on in the piece Jack Z is attributed with this quote: “If Braun would have been gone, I think we would have taken Tulowitzki anyhow and just said the hell with it,” Zduriencik said. “We would have just lived with it and figured, ‘Ok, maybe somebody gets traded.’”

In Ken Rosenthal’s most recent article for The Athletic he says the Brewers “like” Brian Dozier as an option that would allow Travis Shaw to move back to 3B. He also mentions that re-signing Mike Moustakas is still an option for the Brewers. He points out Moose has become friends with Braun, Yelich, as well as Mark Attanasio’s son Mike.

Is he? I truly don't mean this as a troll-y response. When I follow his MiLB track record, I don't see anything special. He definitely posted a good MLB line in a small sample last season, but to me he screams DH-only defensively, without the DH-caliber bat. I think he is fascinating in that he carries such high contact skills (and almost never strikes out) at a time when there is more swing and miss in the game than ever. He also played less than 200 innings in the majors last season, but managed to cover each of the following positions: C, 3B, 2B, LF, CF, and Pitcher. That’s kind of fun. I think he is fascinating in a “this player is much different than others” sense more than a “I wish this player was on my favorite team” kind of way.

Good point, and if production wasn’t already tough enough to predict, correctly projecting player usage is a nearly impossible task. Right now these projections have Hernan Perez with 513 plate appearances, Cory Spangenberg with 302 PA, Eric Thames with 211 PA, and Tyler Saladino with 191 PA. I will take the under on those four hitters combining for 1,200 plate appearances.

The Fangraphs website is a great resource. The record projections seem inconsequential when compared to the overall content hosted by Fangraphs. Painting the entire Fangraphs platform as unreliable based on some team records spit out from the Steamer projection system input seems silly. If you look a little closer the low projection is almost entirely due to the lack of certainty surrounding the Brewers pitching staff. The Steamer system gives the Brewers starting pitchers very little credit. Steamer projects all five Cubs starters to be above 2 WAR, with four of them being around 2.5 WAR each. The same system doesn’t project the Brewers to have a single pitcher near 2 WAR, with the top projection is for Jimmy Nelson at 1.6 WAR (next highest on the entire pitching staff is projected at 1.2 WAR). It also is projecting Zach Davies for 161 innings pitched next season, which isn’t something I would bet on either. In my opinion it isn’t worth getting too worked over these projections, the Brewers are well equipped to outperform them by excelling in areas where the projection system has limitations.

For those who missed it, here is the MLB Trade Rumors update on the financials... So the first three years are a $14.33 million AAV. Maybe not outrageous, but rich enough that it’s tough to blame the Brewers or other teams for not topping that offer.

Sounds like Kikuchi is visiting Seattle before the deadline and they are most likely the front runner at this point.

Understood, I was much higher on Hiura than any other player who could have reasonably been available at the Brewers selection in the 2017 draft. The biggest thing Senzel offers that Hiura doesn’t is more positional flexibility, and a higher likelihood of being MLB ready in 2019. I agree the odds of a prospect-for-prospect trade are nearly zero (and the Brewers would have to give up additional value to make it work) which is why I prefaced with “slightly crazy”. I remain very excited for Keston Hiura’s future, but given a current comparison of the two players I would bet on Senzel to be a better overall major leaguer provided he stays relatively healthy. Just my opinion, and not meant to be a knock on Hiura at all. Anyway, it’s a long offseason and just throwing out something that I realize isn’t actually going to happen.

A (slightly crazy) outside the box idea to add a 2B/3B for 2019 and beyond... Trade Keston Hiura and 1-2 additional pieces (either MLB player or prospects) to the Reds for infielder Nick Senzel. Reds top prospect Nick Senzel is coming off a couple injuries, but is major league ready if he’s healthy. He played some 2B at Triple-A last season before suffering a season ending right index finger injury. He also dealt with vertigo earlier in the season and had surgery this past October (during instructs) to remove bone chips from his left elbow. The injuries are a little concerning, but the talent is immense. The Reds don’t appear to have a ton of at bats to give Senzel at the major league level this season with Eugenio Suárez at 3B and Scooter Gennett at 2B (unless they move Senzel to the OF). Suarez is signed through 2024, but Scooter is set to become a free agent after this upcoming season so the Reds will have an opening at 2B beginning in 2020. There would certainly be risk for both teams in making this move, but it could make some sense for each organization as well.

An interesting note from today’s LA Times article, What's next for the Dodgers?... With a shrinking number of teams looking for starting catchers I’ll be surprised if Grandal significantly exceeds that reported offer of 4-years, $60 million. I would bet on Grandal signing with the Phillies at this point, but if not (and assuming he doesn’t return to the Dodgers) the rest of the field seems narrowed down to the A’s, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, Red Sox, and Padres. The Astros, White Sox, Rays, Braves, and Angels could certainly remain in play as well, but they may be satisfied enough with either their other catching additions from this offseason or other available options. The Indians could be a darkhorse I guess, and if the Pirates move Cervelli than maybe they would be interested.

One less potential suitor for Yasmani Grandal. Edit: I should have prefaced with “probably”. Lucroy’s addition may not completely remove the Angels from the mix.

Exactly. And I've said it over & over about Scooter: if you want the Scooter of the last 2 years you'd also need the Reds' hitting coach. It is well documented that he helped significantly in changing Scooter's swing. The last thing I want is for this to turn into a Scooter Gennett thread, but I have seen much of the credit for Scooter’s transformation given to Brewers assistant hitting coach Jason Lane, not the Reds coaching staff. Example #1: How Scooter Gennett transformed from a Cincinnati Reds waiver claim into an All-Star from the Cincinnati Enquirer Article includes the following: Gennett made it look like a genius decision on his first day. In his first Spring Training at-bat with the Reds, Gennett faced Cleveland Indians reliever Andrew Miller, one of the toughest left-handed pitchers in the sport. Gennett drilled a 2-2 pitch over the wall in left-center for a solo home run. And this was the guy the Reds added to hit righties. “He hits the home run and I’m like, ‘Wow, that makes us look pretty good,’” Williams said. “It just kind of went from there. But he was instantly accepted as a good clubhouse guy. He made his presence known and honestly as much as we’d like to say we were that smart – we did see him as a role player.” Gennett made his biggest adjustment at the plate in one of his final seasons with the Brewers. Working with Milwaukee's assistant hitting coach Jason Lane in the batting cages, Lane told Gennett to change where his back foot landed at the end of his swing. It helped Gennett keep his front hip closed on swings and the immediate impact was he started to hit for more power. Example #2: How the Reds found their surprising slugger from MLB.com Article includes the following: To hear Gennett tell it, the change actually began in his final year in Milwaukee, thanks to Brewers assistant hitting coach Jason Lane, who played in parts of seven Major League seasons for the Astros and Padres. Lane encouraged Gennett in a 2016 batting cage session to change where his back foot landed on his swing, falling behind him (towards the backstop) rather than directly under him. This would have the effect of adding some elevation to a previously flat swing. "OK, that's kind of odd," Gennett recalled this spring in a conversation with MLB Network's Eric Byrnes about Lane's suggestion, "but I'll try it out. First swing I went, 'Boom,' OK, that felt a little weird. I did it again, and all of a sudden I'm getting true flight on the ball, because my front side is actually staying closed, I'm hitting behind -- boom -- and I've just rolled with that."

I think they just trust and stick with their valuation on players. If their mentality was to do whatever it takes to make a splash the Brewers would currently have José Quintana on the roster in place of Christian Yelich.

According to Ken Rosenthal during an MLB Network segment yesterday, the Brewers offered Wilson Ramos a one year deal. Ramos obviously ultimately signed with the Mets for two years and $19 million.

You are probably right on what it would ultimately take to get him to sign a three year deal, I just don’t think the Brewers would go up to a $24 million AAV for him. A mutual option with a healthy buyout could be an enticement as well like you mention. A three year, $70 million contract ($23.33 AAV) would be exactly half the contract (in terms of years and money) that Patrick Corbin received. The most recent comparable three year deal is probably Arrieta’s three year, $75 million deal. The more I think about it I believe Keuchel will ultimately get at least four years from someone.

Perusing the internet here is a collection of free agent contract predictions for Dallas Keuchel... Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV) Fangraphs (Crowdsource Median): 4 years, $79 million ($19.8 million AAV) Fangraphs (Crowdsource Average): 4.2 years, $81 million ($19.4 million AAV) Jon Heyman: 5 years, $95 million ($19 million AAV) Jon Heyman’s “Expert”: 5 years, $105 million ($21 million AAV) MLB Trade Rumors: 4 years, $82 million ($20.5 million AAV) Bleacher Report: 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV)

The Brewers are currently in a position to pay less than $40 million in salaries next year to every pitcher on their 40-man roster combined. Assuming they don’t have an outright aversion to spending significant money on a free agent pitcher, I think the Brewers max offer would be south of what is being projected for Keuchel. The number of years is the hardest part to predict, but I think the Brewers would/should hold firm at a three year offer. I am less concerned about the AAV as compared to the years. I don’t think they would surpass a $20 million AAV for him, so I will say 3 years in the $54 to $60 million range (maybe a 4th year team option with a buyout of a few million) is the max the Brewers would offer. I don’t have a good sense whether that will ultimately even be a competitive offer. To this point, Keuchel has an impressive track record of maintaining consistent velocity across his pitch mix (Link to Brooks Baseball). At the same time his strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) has dropped, and he has entered the wrong side of 30. I don’t value him as a top of the rotation starter, but even a #2-3 starter type is probably worth a nearly $20 million AAV on the open market.

The Brewers will make an appearance on Sunday Night Baseball afterall (Link) at Wrigley Field on May 12.