Eye Black

It feels like the first team to 4 runs is going to win today. I realize neither team has reached that mark through the first three games, but I think someone does so today. I like the Brewers chances, especially because I think they’ll be facing Ynoa or the Braves bullpen by the 5th inning.

Love this. It's been a process for me to get to this view. Let's face it, I'm sure everyone posting on this board has put a ton of time in following this team over the years. We all have something invested. Quite honestly, sometimes I feel guilty about it for different reasons. There will be disappointment whenever it ends, outside a WS win. As a fan, there's nothing quite like of the anticipation of an elimination game. Unfortunately the Brewers now have to win two in a row to advance but IF they can do it, would you wish it any other way? Bring it back home and win it in Milwaukee! It only takes a single AB, pitch or moment to change the whole outlook of a series. So far, it's gone Atlanta's way. Morton on short rest, I honestly believe favors the Brewers. There's pressure on Atlanta to finish this out as much as there is on the Brewers to extend it. For me personally, I love the fact we’re approaching mid-October and still get to passionately care about baseball. It’s the years where indifference sets in by August that are forgettable and less enjoyable for me.

I am going to give my thoughts on this now so I am not one of those people 9 innings later trying to act like I knew all along we should have done differently if Lauer sucks. A) I think starting Morton today is getting too cute and over thinking it. I get the logic, you now have Morton and then Freid the last two games. However, they are in the drivers seat. Just try to win today and if not let Morton/Freid steamroll us in Game 5 if you need them both. That being said this move is a clear sign they hate their chances in a Game 5 and this decision only makes their chances in Game 5 worse if they fail to win today. Props to them for gunning for it in Game 4. B) I support starting Lauer. Dude has been incredible lately and starting Burnes on short rest just seems ill-advised when we would still have to win another game anyway. Brewers hitters have Morton's stuff in recent memory...the Braves can't say the same about Lauer. Agree on all points. Same here, well said all around. I also will be a lot surprised if Morton lasts more than 60-65 pitches on short rest.

Unpopular Opinion: I actually really like that movie.

I think once the season officially ends it could be a therapeutic exercise to discuss how we’ll all remember the 2021 Brewers, but for at least one more day the story is still being written.

Must Win Game ™️

Eric Lauer: Batter (Braves) vs Pitching Stats Charlie Morton: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats Statcast Game Preview for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #4 Statcast Game Feed for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #4

Feel bad for Feyereisen. Not exactly his fault, but that probably isn’t a great feeling.

Well I hope they do try that, but it seems like an unnecessary risk to start Morton tomorrow. I could see maybe bringing him in out of the bullpen if they get a lead, but starting him on 3-days rest for the first time since 2008 (and first time since 2017 World Series that he’d pitch at all on just 3 days rest) doesn’t seem like a good idea when you’re up 2-1 in the series.

Tomorrow is by far the most confident I’ve been going into any game this series. I think the offense finally wakes up against Ynoa who they had success against early in the season, and Lauer keeps them mostly off balance and allows 2 runs or less over 6+ innings. The Braves were much better against RHPs this year than LHPs this season. I’m going to predict 4-2 Brewers tomorrow.

For as right handed heavy as the Braves lineup was at times this season, they weren’t very good against LHPs: .239 BA / .314 OBP / .418 SLG / .732 OPS They had the second fewest hits in baseball against LHPs, only ahead of the Cardinals.

I’m not sure what exactly we’re supposed to do here, but entering 2022 these appear to be currently projected as the worst remaining contracts in baseball… Stephen Strasburg: 5 years, $177 million remaining Christian Yelich: 8 years, $188.5 million remaining Anthony Rendon: 5 years, $188 million remaining Francisco Lindor: 10 years, $301 million remaining Patrick Corbin: 3 years, $83 million remaining Miguel Cabrera: 2 years, $64 million remaining Giancarlo Stanton: 6 years, $164 million remaining Eric Hosmer: 4 years, $60 million remaining Trevor Bauer: 2 years, $78 million remaining Madison Bumgarner: 3 years, $56 million remaining Mookie Betts: 10 years, $342.5 million remaining Jason Heyward: 2 years, $44 million remaining Robinson Cano: 3 years, $40.5 million remaining Joey Votto: 3 years, $57 million remaining Josh Donaldson: 3 years, $50 million remaining Mike Moustakas: 2 years, $32 million remaining Nolan Arenado: 6 years, $142.5 million remaining D.J. LeMahieu: 5 years, $75 million remaining Justin Upton: 1 year, $28 million remaining Evan Longoria: 1 year, $26.5 million remaining Charlie Blackmon: 2 years, $31 million remaining Dallas Keuchel: 2 years, $19.5 million remaining Not actually as many truly awful contracts as I thought. Teams certainly seem to be getting a little wiser regarding the long-term contracts that have a chance to become an albatross. BTW, Cain’s 1 year at $18 million and JBJ’s 1 year at $17 million would both probably project somewhere between 25th to 35th worst on the list of negative value contracts. So I think to your point, the Brewers do have more than their share of bad contracts for 2022. The good news is they currently only project to have one of them on the books for 2023 and beyond. If you’re looking to simply swap bad contracts some targets could be Scott Kingery (2 years, $15 million) or Hunter Dozier (4 years, $22 million).

I’m as disappointed as anyone right now, but the offense’s inability to do much of anything this series makes it hard to be too overly upset if they lose. Asking a pitching staff to work on razor thin margins where you basically can’t give up a run in order to have a chance to win doesn’t leave much hope.

Finally got to tune in… wish I wouldn’t have.

Well the good news is Freddy’s fastball velocity hasn’t dipped 5-mph, and was actually above average in his first start back after the mid-August injury. It actually looks like this has been the most consistent year of his career in terms of maintaining velocity throughout the season. From Brooks Baseball, here is his by month average velocity… And his by game average velocity…

Freddy Peralta: Batter (Braves) vs Pitching Stats Ian Anderson: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats Statcast Game Preview for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #3 Statcast Game Feed for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #3

Are you referring to Zack Godley getting called for interference with Isan Diaz running on the grass to 1B?

I don’t understand the Grandal play. So you can just run anywhere on the infield before you get to the 45ft mark if it’s establishing your own lane? If you grounded to the second baseman and knew they were coming home with the throw what would stop you from just lightly jogging in front of the plate and letting the ball hit you? I can’t imagine the explanation that it doesn’t matter where the runner is in that case can be true?

Via this Tweet… Counsell on selecting Freddy for game 3: this was the plan from probably July.

Even as someone who doesn’t care for the Doug Melvin “competitive window cycle” theory for small market teams, I think this off-season is the time to trade the farm for an impact bat or two. I’d like to hang onto Ashby because I’m convinced he’ll be very good in the near future, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade anyone else in the system for a true middle of the order bat. With the current state of the pitching, the next two years are probably the Brewers best chance at a World Series. With the DH likely coming to the NL, offensive contributors will be even more important.

The Brewers had runners at the corners in the 8th inning, with Jace Peterson at 3B.

Well then I can say with 100% honesty, I’ve never been rooting harder for the Astros than I will be tomorrow.

I hadn’t realized the times were set for the remainder of the series before today. For those that may have missed it… Monday at 12:07pm Tuesday at 4:07pm Thursday in Milwaukee (if necessary) at 4:07pm To be clear, nobody in a decision making role with MLB or their broadcast partners could care any less about fan complaints regarding game times in the Postseason. They answer to advertisers and only need to concern themselves with whatever gives the greatest ROI to those clients. And they shouldn’t, I completely get it. That being said, I’ll admit that as a fan it’s annoying to follow a team so closely, watching an unhealthy amount of spring training and regular season games, only to have to miss games when they matter the most in the Postseason.

Tonight was frustrating, but I’m fairly confident they’ll win one game in Atlanta. Also, I wish Monday’s game wasn’t at Noon. So much for being able to follow that one.