Eye Black

Burnes control not looking overly sharp through his first 26 pitchers tonight. Gets a strike out, however, on pitch #27 of the 1st inning... a nasty cutter.

Well that was a tough luck first inning. Wong base hit is erased by the Vogelbach double play ball, and Yelich scorched a line drive (111.4 mph exit velocity) that was snagged by Story.

I am watching it on Bally Sports WI (via DirecTV).

The addition of Kolten Wong does have a fairly big impact on the lineup. I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say this is the best Brewers lineup in over a week.

I guess it depends on what metrics you trust. If you look at raw OPS, then he looks closer to the player he was on the road in Colorado. If you use a stat that’s adjusted to both ballpark effects and league run environment such as wRC+, then Arenado has currently performed somewhere in between his previous home/road splits. Away Stats in Colorado 2255 PA / .793 OPS / 108 wRC+ Home Stats in Colorado 2303 PA / .985 OPS / 128 wRC+ St. Louis Cardinals 281 PA / .809 OPS / 120 wRC+ Arenado’s overall wRC+ with the Rockies (both home and road combined) was 118. So nearly identical to what he’s been in St. Louis so far. There has been research done on this previously by Mike Petriello and Jeff Sullivan. Sullivan found that the previous Rockies player home/road splits were less indicative of what to expect going forward than a player’s overall wRC+ (counting both home and road stats). Petriello found that with his test cases (Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Chris Iannetta, Clint Barmes) their decrease in home production with their new team was offset by their increase in road production. Here’s Petriello’s summary in his own words: This is why you can't just take the road stats for a Colorado player and project them across an entire season -- because a Rockies hitter is likely to do better on the road once he's not calling Denver home, as nonsensical as that sounds. Put it this way: they'll lose their home-field advantage, but they won't be at as much of a disadvantage elsewhere. Let's take one more approach, this time turning to OPS+, which accounts for park effects and is set so that 100 is "league average." How did this group do after leaving Colorado? Every single one improved, except for Barmes, who basically hit at his established averages no matter where he was. While five players is admittedly not a huge sample, there's no evidence that a Rockies hitter who goes elsewhere and gets regular playing time is going to fall apart. Back to Ryan McMahon, his sample size for 2021 is admittedly pretty small, especially when you cut it in half for home/road splits. His overall wRC+ this season is 106 (home wRC+ is 111; road wRC+ is 99). As that suggests I would expect him to be a slightly better than league average hitter overall (~105), although the lack of previous track record is certainly a good reason to proceed with caution. Barely above league average production doesn’t even sound that enticing until you consider the Brewers have a league worst 60 wRC+ combined from their third baseman this year. I guess if Wong stays healthy maybe the plan to have Urias cover 3B for the remainder of the season is enough. I do agree with those that have concerns about the acquisition cost for McMahon, the Rockies will likely want a package beyond what you’d expect a league average corner infielder with 2.5 years of control remaining to command.

Corbin Burnes: Batter (Rockies) vs Pitching Stats Antonio Senzatela: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats Statcast Game Preview for Rockies-Brewers Statcast Game Feed for Rockies-Brewers

First regular season Brewers at bat for Derek Fisher. How about a grand slam (or even just a hit of any kind, really).

If you have the leadoff runner on base 5 times in 7 innings you should be able to score at least one run out of it, IMO.

Yes, I agree with you that it’s likely helping already good pitchers become dominant. And to be a little clearer, I do think it we will see modest improvements to league wide offense. I just don’t think we are likely to see wild fluctuations among the current hierarchy of pitchers.

I think the spin rate “sky is falling” stuff is overblown. Even the best substance, presumably Spider Tack, isn’t going to turn some middling Triple-A pitcher into a Cy Young candidate. Also, the majority of pitchers were using some sort of substance, so even if offense improves somewhat it isn’t like we’re going to see wild variations in which pitchers are “good” and which are “bad”. There might be an adjustment period where pitchers struggle to adjust for a couple of weeks, but I think that will end up being the extent of any issues and everything will eventually settle back towards normal once again. I would guess by 2022 MLB develops a tacky baseball like other professional leagues have done.

Well the Garrett Hampson home run had an exit velocity of 92-mph and an expected batting average of .080. It was basically a routine fly out that somehow flew out.

Brewers have given up 6 grand slams so far through less than 70 games. The offense has hit zero grand slams this season.

Well this inning escalated quickly.

That’s certainly a fair criticism, but he also turned 26 years old this past off-season which is in line with the timing of when many hitters begin the window of their peak years. He may be playing a bit over his head this season, but he’s probably also a legitimately better hitter than he was at 23 or 24.

As are most Rockies players, including the previously mentioned Nolan Arenado. There are explanations that go beyond just looking at the road stats to find the player’s likely true value. One thing working against their road splits is that balls break less in Colorado, so often Rockies players are having to go back and forth from home to road venues adjusting to the same pitches acting very differently. In the case of several players, as RRB suggested, they’ve adjusted when they’ve left Coors to play in a more normalized environment for the majority of season. In the case of McMahon, it appears he’s also been victim to some bad batted ball luck on the road this year.

What about Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon? According to Baseball Reference he’s been worth 2.6 WAR so far this season. He’s under team control for two more years after this one. He’s only 26 years old, and has played every infield position during his career (although I wouldn’t suggest ever playing him at shortstop where he’s played just 3.0 innings in the majors). His defensive metrics have completely flipped towards the positive this season while he’s split time between 3B and 2B. He is a left handed hitter, and he’d give the Brewers flexibility to shift between 3B and 1B, basically a much better version Travis Shaw.

German Marquez has dominated the current collection of Brewers hitters over a sample of nearly 50 plate appearances. Brewers hitters are 6-for-45 against him with only two walks and just one extra base hit (a Christian Yelich home run) while striking out 12 times. Those numbers do include some pitcher at bats, but the overall line still isn’t pretty even if you remove those 6 PAs.

Brandon Woodruff: Batter (Rockies) vs Pitching Stats Germán Márquez: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats Statcast Game Preview for Rockies-Brewers Statcast Game Feed for Rockies-Brewers

The Brewers had some great chances in the first few innings to put runs on the board. After that the offense just went completely dormant. Wong will be a welcome addition this week, and hopefully Taylor isn’t too far behind.

Well... 1) Nice hit Adames. 2) I wish Adames had played the entire game today (yes, I know he hasn’t gotten a day off since he joined the Brewers).

May as well BAT Yardley. I know they’d never do it, but I’d have no problem with Adrian Houser pinch hitting for Tim Lopes.

The Reds bullpen on the whole is really bad, but the Brewers haven’t been able to do anything against them this series.

If you’re wondering (because I was), Tyler Mahle has only gone over 100 pitches once this year, and that was just 103.

Brewers have left 6 runners on base through the first 3 innings.

Yeah, the Brewers currently have 12 position players on the active roster, and a third of them are Daniel Robertson, Jace Peterson, Pablo Reyes, and Tim Lopes. Even when Wong, Taylor, and Cain are back there will be some room to improve the bottom of the roster.