3and2Fastball
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Everything posted by 3and2Fastball
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Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not. I'm taking about durability even relative to the other targets being discussed. Salazar, Cobb, Arrieta, Clevenger, deGrom, Syndergaard, Darvish etc. ALREADY haven't put up 200 IP seasons in and out like Archer has. Strongly agree. There aren't that many pitchers who K/9 10+ while giving you 200 innings with a FIP in the 3's who are under bargain contracts for 4 more seasons. I think a lot of people are vastly underrating Archer
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We don't need Archer to out-WAR Santana. We need him to out-WAR the likes of Woodruff, Guerra, and Suter. i.e. The pitcher(s) he'd be replacing in the rotation. If Burnes ends up part of the Archer package we are betting Archer can out-WAR Burnes. The Brewers are betting that Yelich can out-WAR any of their outfielders, including Santana, and I'd say that is a safe bet.
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Agree they need to draft better. So far at least I think Hiura and Lutz were great picks
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Just a guess, but HH said one player is holding up the trade, could be Tampa asking for Burnes, or Phillips....
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Not sure how Gard survives this season. Even years ago when the Badgers were bad, I watched because I'm a fan and at least there were a few compelling storylines or interesting players to watch. I can't even watch this year's team. They are pathetic.
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Moncada=Santana? Not even close. Moncada was one of the top prospects in Baseball at the time of that trade. His ceiling is Robinson Cano with speed. Santana's ceiling is Khris Davis with worse defense
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I don't get the fascination with Kipnis. He had a pretty good year in 2016 with a 4 WAR, just like Villar...his contract is ridiculous. We're taking on his contract in order to get 3 years of Danny Salazar? Is that it?
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The Brewers got a good long look at evaluating Phillips and replaced him with Yelich, who is only 2 years older than Phillips.
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You know what is a bigger media story and more marketable than Brett Phillips' adorable laugh? Winning a World Series. It is time to get out of Mayberry, put on our big boy pants, and get ready to compete with the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs
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Archer's MiLB stats https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=archer001chr Burnes' MiLB stats https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=burnes000cor
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Burnes is a year older than Archer was when he had his first dominating stretch of AA ball. Burnes throws 93-95 mph, Archer throws 94-96 Yes, Burnes could be as good as Archer, but Archer is already proven.... The proposed trade has risk, but is worth the risk to me
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Remind me again when Cobb was great? He doesn't have elite velocity, doesn't have elite control, and isn't particularly durable. What Alex Cobb seems to think he's worth is a real head scratcher. 2013-2014 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml
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High Heat: any guess on when the Archer trade will be completed? I remember when you said "95% chance Yelich will be a Brewer", you sure were right! What percentage chance would you put on Archer being a Brewer? Thanks!
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If we get Archer plus Darvish or Arrieta I'm gonna want season tickets.
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That is how I feel as well. As long as we get Darvish or Arrieta. The Brewers can't just stop at getting Archer and say "our rotation is complete". Do you think Cobb can return to greatness? I just can't see him on the same level as Arrieta or Darvish. What am I missing?
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Man oh man, you have a rotation of Darvish or Arrieta Archer Anderson Nelson Chacin You might as well start planning on a Stearns statue outside of Miller Park. By 2020 nobody is gonna care about losing Santana, Phillips & Burnes...
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Quintana is 4 months younger. They will both be 29 through all of 2018. They are the same age. The last 3 years, which is generally what teams evaluate a player on, Archer had 13 fWAR to Quintana's 13.3 fWAR. Quintana got traded with 3+ years left. Archer may get traded with 4 years left. Archer has $33.7M left. Quintana has $29.8M left. It's hard to get any more comparable than that, unless you want to factor in Q being a LHP and Archer being a RHP. Very good points made, I hear you. You need to look at Quintana's numbers from 2014-2016, as that is what the Cubs were evaluating, looking at Quintana's first half of 2017 as an anomoly. And I stand corrected on the age, for some reason I thought Archer was older...
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If you look at the trends of the game, and how many HR's are being hit, as well as look at Santana & Phillips' strike out rates, the ask makes sense. It is really a trade for Burnes & Peralta with Santana & Phillips thrown in...
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Yeah that's a lot to give up, but Archer has been an All-Star two of the last 3 seasons. High Heat: you made a great point about the value of pitching going sky high. I'd be more concerned about giving up Burnes than Samtana/Phillips.... Phillips is scary to give up only in the sense that Braun is so fragile But you have to give to get... I am still hoping we sign Arrieta... Adding Archer & Arrieta would be just amazing. I'm less thrilled about Cobb... But Cobb still represents an improvement...obviously if the Brewers feel good about Cobb they've checked his medicals etc
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Quintana is younger than Archer and has put up better numbers (115 ERA+ & 3.53 ERA in his career vs Archer 108 ERA+ and 3.63 ERA) From 2013 through 2017 Quintana put up a 22 WAR compared to Archer's 12 I don't think they are really considered at the same value
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Agreed, if it is me, you don't trade Hader/Hiura unless it is for 4 years of Clayton Kershaw or as part of a Mike Trout deal, or for someone like Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor...
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That hit tool is enticing, but is that amplified because he plays 2B? Yes/No... He could potentially be a Batting Average league leader. That has value at any position. Due to the perceived lack of power (I think he could eventually be a 20 HR guy) the fact that he can play 2B does elevate his value, yes, but if the guy can hit .340 (like I think he can) who cares what position he plays!? (I'm pretty biased about Hiura, not very objective)
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My guess on the Archer deal based on what High Heat has said as well as other rumors is that it will be Santana + Burnes + either Woodruff or Ortiz A tough price to pay but we'd have Archer for 4 years....getting him out of the AL East will improve his numbers
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If it is Archer & Arrieta I'd be thrilled. Question: do you think Burnes will still be in the Brewers organization in March? If we got Archer. No. Thanks for the response, I kinda figured as such. It is a risk losing Burnes, but you have to give to get, and it is a risk worth taking.... I just hope it isn't Burnes plus Hiura. Hiura's bat is special.
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I'd be very concerned about giving up Hiura for Archer