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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Gomez is a plus baserunner. The numbers support the argument that his aggressiveness has a net positive effect that outweighs the occasional inning-ending groaner. From 2012-2014, Gomez has the eleventh highest BsR according to Fangraphs (+15.7 runs from his base running). Arguably he could improve on that if he was an infallible deity who never made mistakes, but calling him dumb seems a little strange. It's sort of like how most players will strike out a lot if they try to hit a lot of home runs, but that's not a bad thing if you actually hit a lot of home runs. Gomez stretches a lot of plays for an extra base and thus the times when he gets caught in a run-down are just a necessary side effect. As for his errant throws, the criticism that Carlos Gomez is a poor defender is a new one to me.
  2. SRB
    -Nelson will outpitch Peralta -Knebel will be closing games by the end of the season -Lucroy and Gomez will disappoint, Braun will return to form -Adjusted for playing time, Lind will be the second best player on the team (behind Braun) -Melvin will trade one of Davis, Parra, or maybe even Gomez to Seattle
  3. SRB
    Do NPB pitchers get injured as frequently as MLB pitchers, or is it something about playing in the United States? Maybe MLB should move to a 6-man rotation like they have in Japan. That would also solve the lack-of-offense "crisis" pretty quickly, if you wanted to have MLB mandate rotation size somehow.
  4. SRB
    We still know nothing about the guy. Sure there are some reports, but the accuracy is questionable. The fact he is likely not to stick at SS hurts his value a little bit too. If ranking purely based on ceilings I could see him #2 behind Monte Harrison in my opinion. True, I don't necessarily expect anyone else to rank him #1 (I just wanted to make/post that gif ) My rationale is as follows: if I was in Las Vegas and had to put money on a Brewers prospect who, looking back ten years from now, will have won an MVP or Cy Young (I mean a boom-or-nothing scenario; not [Likely WAR] * [Probability of reaching it]), I would put my money on Lara, followed by Medeiros and Harrison.
  5. SRB
    Gilbert Lara #1? http://i.imgur.com/dIdOh68.gif
  6. SRB
    1. SS Gilbert Lara 2. LHP Kodi Medeiros 3. OF Monte Harrison 4. SS Orlando Arcia 5. OF Tyrone Taylor 6. RHP Corey Knebel 7. OF Clint Coulter 8. RHP Taylor Jungmann 9. SS Jacob Gatewood 10. RHP Devin Williams 11. RHP Marcos Diplan 12. LHP Wei-Chung Wang 13. RHP Taylor Williams 14. RHP Miguel Diaz 15. RHP Jorge Lopez 16. 3B Jason Rogers 17. RHP Tyler Wagner 18. LHP Jed Bradley 19. OF Victor Roache 20. OF Brandon Diaz 21. RHP Tyler Cravy 22. OF Troy Stokes 23. RHP David Goforth 24. OF Kyle Wren 25. OF Michael Reed *Edit* Made some changes to my list in recognition of some players I forgot the first time around.
  7. SRB
    Missed the "not"...still might as well trade both in that situation. I also don't see them being bad enough to trade away Gomez and quit on 2016. They almost certainly won't, because of how the franchise operates, but if they think Taylor can start in 2016 then they absolutely should even if they want to compete in 2016. Gomez is awesome but I don't trust him to maintain the MVP-level that he's currently at. We would maximize our return by dealing him mid-2015. Obviously I wouldn't trade Gomez without an elite return (like a young possible-ace SP).
  8. SRB
    If the Brewers tank this year and the Mariners are competitive? To Seattle CF Carlos Gomez SP Kyle Lohse RP Francisco Rodriguez To Milwaukee SP Taijuan Walker 3B/1B D.J. Peterson 3B Patrick Kivlehan SP Edwin Diaz
  9. SRB
    Soft platoon depending on how Davis is hitting (remember, he's has streaks of being dreadful). If Brewers are not near top of standings at All Star break, trade Gomez for a couple elite prospects and start Parra in CF.
  10. SRB
    Having looked into these prospects a bit, I think the best targets would be: Cecchini (doesn't have a high ceiling, but how much leverage does Boston have here given their 3B depth?) Peterson (downside is that his defense is poor and some think he's a 1B, but Seattle might be buyers this year) Kivlehan(cheaper than Peterson, but also questions about his defense) Lamb (great minor league track record, but might be overpriced and Arizona not likely buyers) Drury (another potential good value; Sickels actually ranks him higher than Lamb) I would be on the phone with Boston, Seattle, and Arizona. Especially if Tomas sticks at 3B and thus blocks Lamb/Drury.
  11. SRB
    Possible pre-2016 trade targets (i.e. 3B in teams' top 10 prospects this season) Jomar Reyes, BAL (too young) Rafael Devers, BOS (too young) Garin Cecchini, BOS Miguel Andujar, NYY (too young) Trey Michalczewski, CHW (too young) Hunter Dozier, KCR Miguel Sano, MIN (too expensive) Colin Moran, HOU Rio Ruiz, HOU (too young) Matt Chapman, OAK (too young) Renato Nunez, OAK(too young) DJ Peterson, SEA Patrick Kivlehan, SEA Joey Gallo, TEX (too expensive) Ryan Rua, TEX Kyle Kubitza, ATL Brian Anderson, MIA (too young) Maikel Franco, PHI(too expensive) Drew Ward, WAS (too young) Kris Bryant, CHC (too expensive) Ryan McMahon, COL (too young) Fernando Perez, SDP (too young) Yasmany Tomas, ARI (too expensive) Jake Lamb, ARI Brandon Drury, ARI
  12. SRB
    When did he do this? Not defending K-Rod, I think he's a chump, but I only remembered the two other incidents.
  13. SRB
    Relief pitchers are unreliable, overvalued, and generally deserved to be crapped on. Outside of a handful of elite talents (like Kimbrel), any given RP could end up being fantastic or horrible next season. The reason people target the guys you've listed is because they are unnecessarily expensive given the above facts. In his 13 year career he only had two seasons where he had an ERA about 4 and never had one above 4.5. Half the time he produced an ERA under3. His career ERA is 2.73 and is 10th in career saves. If it is true that relievers have to be classified as either elite or to be crapped on then K-Rod has to be put in the elite category. I would suggest a third alternative. A group that includes pitchers who can be relied upon to give you at least average production year in and year out. Personally that would be where I put Rodriguez. Which is well worth what he is being paid. A league average relief pitcher is worth nowhere near 3/$19M, which is what K-Rod's deal potentially gives him. He's had an elite career but RP are so volatile that it can go at any time (e.g. Trevor Hoffman). Mariano Rivera is the only guy in history who was untouchable his entire career. I'm fine with the K-Rod deal, but that doesn't mean I don't think we might have gotten comparable performance from (for example) a full season of Knebel. There's a reason nobody signed K-Rod until spring training...
  14. SRB
    Schwarber was picked 4th and has mashed so far in the minors, Coulter was picked 27th and had a couple so-so seasons. Not surprising that one is ranked higher than the other, that's how these lists work. "Consensus opinion" is heavily biased by the past pedigree of the prospect. Whether Coulter is an equal or better baseball player right now is a different matter. Time will tell.
  15. SRB
    Relief pitchers are unreliable, overvalued, and generally deserved to be crapped on. Outside of a handful of elite talents (like Kimbrel), any given RP could end up being fantastic or horrible next season. The reason people target the guys you've listed is because they are unnecessarily expensive given the above facts.
  16. SRB
    What part of Broxton is a dumpster fire? The 2.92 ERA or 1.108 WHIP the last three years? If that's dumpster fire, then what is KRod? Over the same time frame he's got a 3.47 ERA and 1.173 WHIP. The 3.94 xFIP, 7.3 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9.(In contrast, K-Rod has a 3.25 xFIP and a sub-3.00 xFIP over the last two seasons) K-Rod still strikes people out and has noticeably reinvented himself as a change-up pitcher, so I'm wary but would understand him continuing to have success. In contrast, Broxton has rapidly diminishing stuff, rapidly diminishing K-rate, and his peripherals strongly suggest he is on the brink of disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a 4+ ERA this season, but naturally I hope to be proved wrong.
  17. SRB
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1642&position=P Yes, this one. The last 3 years he has basically combined to be a replacement-level pitcher according to it. Apparently the league is full of a lot of pitchers that are way worse than replacement level then. I don't think KRod is great, nor am I really buying into the "proven closer" pixie dust, but I question Fangraphs methodology if that's their conclusion. Their version of WAR is particularly bad for relief pitchers, in part because it relies on FIP rather than ERA or xFIP. K-Rod gave up an above-average rate of HRs last season, so it thinks he was a bad pitcher. Even though his results were good and his xFIP combined with the small sample size suggest that he was "unlucky" and that the HR-rate will come down. To be honest, FIP is majorly flawed when it doesn't adjust for HR/FB% because that contradicts the entire notion that the pitcher does not control how hard the ball is hit once it leaves the bat. Pitcher WAR should be based on ERA (like on Baseball Reference) or xFIP, in my opinion.
  18. SRB
    I don't trust K-Rod, but Broxton is a dumpster fire. We have a few young RP with a lot of potential (Jeffress, Smith, Knebel), but we all know Roenicke wouldn't have let them be the closer. K-Rod is a big upgrade over using Broxton in that role. I'm not sure if Broxton will make it through the season on the 25-man.
  19. SRB
    I wouldn't count out Willis. He had very good splits vs. LHP even when his SP numbers were somewhat mediocre, and I could see him having a resurgence as a RP. Cotts is not a good LOOGY/lone-LHP because he has reverse platoon splits. Smith is arguably the best reliever in the pen so should not be used on match ups. We need a guy to bring in vs. LHB in the 6th/7th/8th.
  20. SRB
    There's only one thing worse than PEDs under MLB's made-up, non-contractual punitive measures. Turns out Hamilton has been lying about his true identity, and he's actually Alex Rodriguez.
  21. SRB
    The funny thing is that, if we assume Moncada does become a star player and we further assume that the Red Sox glut of OF/3B/2B prevents him from becoming a full-time regular a season or two earlier (compared to the Brewers, who almost surely would have given him the 3B job in 2016 unless he looked awful in the minors), the value of an additional free agent year would be larger than the difference between the Red Sox and the Brewers bonus offers. I'm sure he is very confident in his abilities, but if you had a crystal ball and knew you were going to be successful the value of a direct path to the majors is probably >$15M. Of course, nobody has that, so he took the guaranteed money.
  22. SRB
    Those numbers are not reliable, because some teams have an incentive to drive up the price. Sherman was talking about $40-50M just the other day and yet even the Yankees wouldn't go over $30M. I guess they were hoping for an Aoki-like upset.
  23. SRB
    I agree. The current method is horrible and creates a competitive disadvantage as only (at most) 50% of the teams have any realistic shot of signing these guys. In my opinion it's completely idiotic to, for a lack of a better word, punish athletes for being born in the US. MLB is a mostly US league, but yet we pay more to those born outside our own borders. Sillyness. To the extent they're punished, the solution would be eliminating the draft entirely, not expanding it. An international draft would hurt all the players (if you're American you are maybe going to get drafted 1-2 rounds later, costing you hundreds of thousands). It really only benefits the teams. That said, I'm in favor of one because these type of bonuses for amateurs are preposterous and destroy the competitive balance of the sport. Alternatively, you could just cap IFA bonuses (for non-pros like Moncada) at the slot value for the 1-1 pick in next year's draft. If multiple teams match max offer, player can decide based on other factors.
  24. SRB
    Yeah but the Cubs will be back online, and in their negotiations with Moncada the Dodgers already tipped that they want to spend big this July (probably on Alvarez and others). Not seeing much of a chance for Milwaukee on any elite $5M+ type players.
  25. SRB
    Over react much? As if the Brewers had any shot at signing him. [sarcasm]Jerichoholicninja, I hope you're in the front row during the infamous Moncada head-bounce, and I hope the ball knocks a full beer right out of your hands[/sarcasm]
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