SRB

It's happening, superfly. It's going to happen. It doesn't seem like as big of a deal in hindsight because of how good Jose Abreu was last season, but let's not forget that the "small market" Brewers offered >$60M for a guy who had never played over here before just last year. They're hungering for this time of creative splash. The only question is whether the Brewers' likely sizable offer is enough.

Praying at my Yoan Moncada Altar. Signing expected soon after he solicits offers over the next two weeks. Knowing the Brewers luck, it will probably come out that Mark A spent weeks pulling strings to free up enough money to bid on him, went to extraordinary lengths to get it done, the Brewers had the highest bid by $10M, and... Moncada decided he didn't want to come to Milwaukee and signed with the Yankees.

I'll be honest, I kind of want some Bratchos.

More A-Rod hate from the petty baseball media. 3/$60M is the worst contract in baseball? Really? He is firmly at the end of his career, but from 2012-2013 A-Rod still hit .265/.352/.428 for a .342 wOBA. In 166 G he was worth 2.7 rWAR, which means he was about a league average starter. At the market rate $20M/season is what, 2.5 WAR? I don't know if he will be worth 2.5 WAR per season after an entire year away from baseball, but as old as A-Rod is he's not even 40 yet, and he is one of the most talented players of all time. Without any sense of hyberbole, I bet you could bring Barry Bonds out of retirement tomorrow, start him at DH, and he could put up a 2.5 WAR season. If the Yankees would stop being idiots and just let A-Rod play, he likely would not justify that contract but he wouldn't be a disaster. The Yankees and the baseball media have created a circus. That is the only reason it's a bad contract as opposed to a slight overpay.

With the draft order finalized today, the Brewers will have a draft pool of approximately $8.1M. Would you draft all signability guys for the entire draft and save maybe half of that, so another $4M that could go toward a Moncada tax in July 2015? I say go for it.

I was listening to the Baseball Prospectus Daily Podcast the other day, and the guest was Kiley McDaniel who apparently does the prospect write-ups at Fangraphs. Link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25536 One of the interesting things he talked about (sorry, I don't have the exact time, it was near the end) is how some team sources will (perhaps deliberately) oversell the tools and pedigree of their own prospects in order for them to be "ranked" higher in the media. For example, if there's a guy they want to pump up because they're trying to trade him. I feel like this has been a pseudo-conspiracy theory for a long time (I don't hear about it much anymore, but remember when it seemed like Yankees prospects always got a substantial bump in how highly they were regarded in the national media?), but I don't remember hearing the guys doing the actual rankings talk about it so openly. It also makes me wonder whether the Brewers happen to have an organizational philosophy where they don't do this as much as some other teams do. Here we are entering 2015 and once again the Brewers look to only have one prospect (Orlando Arcia) in consensus "top 100" rankings. I'm not saying the Brewers have any megaprospects, but if you look at the list there are a lot of weird choices ranked higher and it makes you wonder. I'm not qualified to call out these guys in particular, but just as an example since we were looking at Padres prospects recently (in context of a Sardinas trade): they have two top-70 guys, one of whom (Austin Hedges) is an elite defensive catcher drafted back in 2011 who hit .225/.268/.321 last season, and the other of whom (Matt Wisler) is a seventh-round pick who pitched to a 5.01 ERA, 1.431 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 last season. I would love to have Wisler, he was a 21-year-old in AAA for the first time, I'm not saying he's crap, but is that an elite prospect who is better than Orlando Arcia? Not clear to me. Meanwhile, we have three key starters (Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Mike Fiers) who nobody had anywhere close to even top-5 in the Brewer system despite great results throughout their professional careers (though I do remember Kevin Goldstein at BP had Scooter relatively high one year). And we have arguably the best catcher in baseball who was also never a "top" prospect (Lucroy), while Gomez was only ever a top prospect when he was with the Mets (granted, his rookie eligibility ran out soon after). Alternatively, you could argue that maybe the Brewers front office pushes guys it knows are overrated and it wants to get rid of (Matt LaPorta, Brett Lawrie, Alcides Escobar - all traded as elite talents which we not know they most certainly are not). And maybe it's just a Melvin thing that he pushes through the entire organization, because I also remember the pre-Melvin days when the Brewers were the consensus top overall farm system. Do you think this is a real phenomenon? After all, due to a simple matter of resources, these lists (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc.) are to a large extent based on the word of external scouts who almost always have ulterior motives. I would be interested in seeing some type of statistical analysis of Baseball America ranking vs. ultimate success in the major leagues, to see it's random throughout MLB or whether there are specific teams whose rankings clearly outstrip their merit over a period of years or decades. Does such a thing already exist? If not, somebody with more mathematical chops than I should look into it!

I don't see Davis as a weak point considering his salary & how it frees up money to spend elsewhere. It was only his first full season in the bigs last year and he hit 22 bombs, nearly as many doubles as Braun does, and 70 rbi's out of primarily the 6 hole. As with the rest of the team, he really nosedived after the all-star break. I'd give him another season before we start wondering if he's a weak point. He's the same damn thing as Yoenis Cespedes except a little weaker on defense, and the pundits think Cespy is the greatest gift God has given to Earth in the past 10 years. I love Khris Davis, didn't mean to trash him. He is an amazing success story for a guy that the prospect pundits never believed in whatsoever. And the way he looks when he's locked in on a hot streak gives a lot to dream over. But realistically it seems like he is a 2-3 WAR player, which is supposedly about average for an MLB starter (though I suspect it might actually be above-median). Same for Gennett, another non-prospect who is contributing. Segura is the wild card because I could see him having a 4+ WAR season or a below-replacement-level <0 WAR season.

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season. How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

Dodgers and Yankees seem like the obvious favorites, given that they have the money and positional needs (plus Dodgers have Cuban ties). Red Sox don't make any sense to me because they have Pedroia/Bogaerts/Sandoval for year and years. Sadly the Brewers probably have to pay a premium to get him to come to Milwaukee as well. Hopefully Mark A just really really loves Moncada and evaluates him substantially higher than the Yankees/Dodgers do.

Since the Brewers appear to be the only real suitor for Papelbon, the delay definitely suggests the Brewers are waiting on something to either pull the trigger or not.

It appears like a good bet that Moncada will receive a bonus closer to $40 million than $20 million. Cuban CF Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox for 6 years, $72.5 million back in August. While it isn't quite the same type of up front investment with the Castillo deal and it could be argued the 27 year old outfielder is closer to a sure thing at this point, but Castillo doesn't appear to have nearly the ceiling that Moncada does. As a comparison, Castillo is currently rated outside the top 30 in most recent top prospect lists I have seen released. Many reputable prospect analysts have already projected Moncada as immediately being a top ten prospect in baseball the day he signs. I would be very surprised if purchasing an instant top ten talent with tools that all grade out at 60 or higher doesn't command a total investment of $70 million or more. The difference is that with Moncada, if he becomes a star you are looking at a total 6-year investment of an extra $30-40M due to arbitration. So an $80M signing bonus would mean you are evaluating him as a $120M player on a 6-year deal, or almost $50M better than Rusney Castillo. (And you have to factor in a substantial cost like that, because if you don't think he's going to be a star then why are you wasting so much money on signing him?) Plus the huge 2015 penalty is just a giant payroll dump adding no value, which is a major consideration for teams and substantially increases the true cost to teams. Given that this is a 19-year-old prospect at the end of the day, who no teams have even seen face live pitching, I doubt it goes that high. How many prospects in the history of the sport do you think teams would be willing to sign to $20M/year deals for their age 20-25 seasons before they have played a single game of professional ball? A-Rod and Bryce Harper? I don't think Moncada is quite on that level. Internet pundits severely overvalue high-upside guys. I have no idea what will happen but I would be much more surprised if bidding hit $80M than if bidding ended up being closer to $60M or even lower.

The penalty would be due in July 2015 because that's a month after the current signing period ends. I agree that all signs point toward Moncada signing in the next month. I've lost track of who much the Brewers have already spent in their current bonus pool, are we still in the same period for the Lara signing (meaning we are already over the pool)? In any event, that only affects what they would have to pay by $2-3M, so I don't think it changes the analysis either way.

If we assume Doug and Mark A view Moncada as the real deal and a Bryce Harper type franchise prospect, here's one creative way they could make it work. 1) Get Ryan Braun to restructure his contract so a large portion of his 2015 salary is deferred (with a bump of course). Win-win situation because Braun is likely going to spend his entire career with Milwaukee and what player would not want their team to sign Moncada?? Plus it makes Braun look like a hero to the fanbase and rehabilitates him from the weird stereotype that he is a selfish player. Say $10M gets deferred in the form of three $5M bonuses over 2016-18. 2) Sign K-Rod for $4M or so and trade Broxton as a salary dump (I think a team would take him straight up, but maybe we would throw in money covering his 2016 option -- we have plenty of payroll space in 2016 so it's not a big issue). 3) Offer Moncada the following $40M deal (i.e. as a final offer, hopefully we wouldn't have to go this high): 2016: $10M 2017: $10M 2018: $10M 2019: $10M The Brewers would be on the hook for roughly a $37M penalty in July 2015 (overage of our international bonus pool). With $10M deferred from Braun, and $5M saved from replacing Broxton with K-Rod, that's $22M extra for the 2015 payroll. Now, it seems like the team is already happy to take on $13M in the form of Jonathan Papelbon (or maybe $20 in the form of Shields?), plus there is usually some play roll flexibility built in for midseason acquisitions, so is a $120M payroll or so really that unrealistic? I think they could easily do it if they really like Moncada. The Braun restructuring is probably wishful internet thinking, but this is assuming bidding hits what I think is a realistic peak ($40M). I actually doubt that it will go much above $30M (so a $60M total investment), because that is crazy for a 19-year-old who nobody has really even seen face live pitching, and because for many of the large market teams if I am not mistaken they will probably be paying a luxury tax on top of whatever they spend? They gave Abreu such a big offer because we had a huge hole at 1B and the free agent market was very poor. Do any of this 2016 free agents look like desirable starting 3B starting in 2016? (Answer: no) Joaquin Arias (31) Mike Aviles (35) Gordon Beckham (29) Willie Bloomquist (38) Kevin Frandsen (34) David Freese (33) Jonathan Herrera (31) Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout Don Kelly (36) Jeff Keppinger (36) Casey McGehee (32) Aramis Ramirez (38) Sean Rodriguez (31) Juan Uribe (37)

Seems like a lot of people think they could pay Shields $20M this season (and they were already set to pay Gallardo $13M). I don't think it's unrealistic to think that the Brewers have enough cash flow to pay a $30M or so penalty this summer. The rest of the bonus could be spread out (granted, Moncada probably wants as much up front as possible) Granted, they probably won't, but I bet they could if they really really wanted to.

I want to believe.

The weird thing about MLB is that it should be a complete joke in terms of parity like the English Premier League (where 3-4 just dominate everyone year after year), but the payroll differences are offset by how stupidly large market teams spend their money. If the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers ran things like the Athletics or Rays but with an additional $150M to spend every season, they would never not be in the World Series. The only thing keeping parity somewhat in check is teams' stupidity.

Don't forget Knebel. Does he really need a full year closing games at AAA?

The danger with Perez is that according to his peripherals he was never very good, but he had a couple seasons with solid ERAs (one with a fantastic ERA) which gave him closing experience, so now he is a proven "name"/closer and thus Melvin & Co. might give him a much longer leash than he deserves. If he tricks everyone with a solid spring training, it could end up doing us harm.

Chris Perez is turrible.

[sarcasm]Yadier Molina narrating things he never got to do because he drowned in a bathtub. Make safe happen.[/sarcasm]

Would be a very good signing because he crushes LHP so you can pair him with Lind at 1B (and get combined production that is near the top of the league at that position, I would wager), and use him as a 5th OF with a bit of pop off the bench. We already have a plus 4th OF in Parra, who is a defensive specialist, so who is our current 5th OF? Schafer, another defense-first player who is redundant on this roster? A guy like Viciedo makes perfect sense, even given his poor defense. Platoon player vs. LHP and a bench bat with power.

Brewers fans really undervaluing Sardinas, who as noted was a top 100 prospect two years running before graduating. I think Arcia has more upside because of his offensive potential, but yeah you could make a case that Sardinas is the #1/#2 prospect in the system now (if he was still eligible). That's based on proximity to MLB and floor, b/c we have a lot of boom/bust prospects in the low minors, but it's true. We should not be trading that guy for a RP or random bench piece. If it weren't for Segura's one fantastic half-season, I would have Sardinas penciled in as our starting SS.

Sardinas has a lot of upside, they shouldn't just flip him because they think Gennett/Segura have the starting positions locked up for 2015. If they got someone like RHP Matt Wisler (just ranked #69 on MLB.com's Top 100 prospects list, allegedly close to MLB ready and could be a #3 SP) then I guess it's a solid move, trading one year of Gallardo for six years of a possibly comparable pitcher.

Honestly...I am getting very tired of the discrepancies in the Brewers/Pirates/Royals ability to sign players of this ilk versus the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers. The ideas that pace of play and lack of offense in baseball are the reason why fan support is down versus the NFL and other sports is moronic and completely ignoring the real reason. The fact that the best player in the NFL plays in Green Bay and the top two players in the NBA play in Cleveland and Oklahoma City speaks volumes as to why the popularity in those leagues is rising while baseball needs to reinvent itself with pitch clocks and the potential banning of defensive strategies to attract more fans to this game. Balance the salary structure and you might be surprised that you have to do little to nothing else to attract the casual fan, Mr. Manfred. The international spending cap in particular is a big joke because it actually gives a bigger advantage to rich teams than if it didn't exist, given that the main penalty is just having to spend more money. I guess it keeps spending down on more run-of-the-mill talents, but small market teams could get those players in a bidding war anyways. When there is a big talent on the market, small market teams are priced out and the only real effect is that the player gets screwed (and the league gets $$$)

I think the only thing they have to pay upfront is the overage penalty to MLB for exceeding the international spending cap. I'm not saying this would be wise, but the payroll commitments drop to $49M next season (plus first year arbitration raises), so I imagine the organization could earmark the revenue to pay the penalty this summer and then spread the actual bonus to Moncado over a few seasons. The result would be we don't sign any major free agents next season and have a bit of a patchwork MLB roster (arguably only a major issue regarding 3B and A-Ram leaving).