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Everything posted by SRB
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Does "talent" matter if it doesn't translate into results? Career Stats Gallardo: 3.63 ERA, 9.2 K/9 Greinke: 3.77 ERA, 8.0 K/9
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If they're going to trade Hart, Atlanta might be a good match. Unless past rumors were made up, they've had some level of interest in him previously, and they have more bullpen depth than any other team in the majors. Maybe Hart for Venters or Walden, and a decent low-minors SP prospect? O'Flaherty would be a very good bullpen addition too, except he only has one year of team control left so they would need to add more prospects. I don't know if I'm undervaluing one year of Hart in those scenarios. It would have to be a legit prospect in addition the the MLB reliever (though Teheran is probably too much)
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Ben Revere to Phillies for Vance Worley and prospect
SRB replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That would've been a horrendous deal from MKE's perspective. IMO, Gomez has (or should have) way more value than Worley and May. That's not even close. It would have been horrendous for the Phillies. I think Gomez is better than Revere, but it's 1 year of team control (Gomez) versus 4-5 (Revere). Worley is a very solid pitcher who is cheap and under team control, not sure why you don't think he's worth anything. I would certainly rather have Worley than any free agent not named Zack Greinke. -
Sounds like Seattle are the frontrunners if Texas doesn't bring him back (likely dependent on where Greinke decides to go): http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2012/12/06/mariners-said-to-be-still-very-much-in-the-running-for-josh-hamilton/
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In my ideal world I would make a push to bring Roy Oswalt to Milwaukee for 1-2 years, and add Koji Uehara (far and away best RP on the market, except for his age)
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Melvin better not be signing any free agent reliever then, because you're not going to beat Burnett at $8/2
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Why exactly would Holland cost a huge haul? He is a #4/5 SP with one decent season and has never hit 200 IP. I guess he's young and relatively cheap, but still not that interested.
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If anyone is interested, I made a spreadsheet with every remaining free agent pitcher and their stats (IP - K/9 - ERA - FIP - xFIP) from last season and the last three seasons: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiT-S4-H5q9zdDl4bWdFSmJ5bTBha3Joc043eUZubHc#gid=0 I would make it so viewers can sort the columns, but not sure how to do that. Interesting to compare the stats of some of the "bigger" names with other, equally-effective alternatives. It also makes Badenhop look like a very good pickup. From an advanced statistical standpoint, the two best right-handed RP on the market look to be Koji Uehara and Jason Grilli, and the best left-handed RP is Sean Burnett, so it's encouraging that Melvin has been linked to Grilli/Burnett. One name that jumps out at me is Roy Oswalt. He has maintained the best peripherals of any SP on the market not named Zack Greinke, could be had on a 1-2 year deal (probably relatively cheap), and is being severely undervalued because of a fluke ERA last season. Also has the benefit of bringing an elite veteran presence to an otherwise very young pitching staff that is still developing. I don't know if Melvin is interested though (or, if Oswalt would want to come to Milwaukee -- probably not).
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If payroll goes up there would be room. My calculation of 2013 and 2014 payroll (adding up salaries from Cots, with projected arbitration awards included) has it at around $70 right now for 2013 -- so probably $10 million to spend if the target is $80 -- and at around $74 million committed for 2014. But that includes the loss of Hart and Gomez to free agency.
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See, e.g., the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen 2011: Top 3 in MLB for FIP/xFIP 2012: Worst in MLB for ERA
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What if they sign Hamilton, move him to 1B to counteract injuries/diminishing defense, and trade Hart? At the very least could probably get some very nice bullpen help in a trade for Hart (maybe even a young lower-tier SP if you add a couple prospects?). Still not sure Hamilton's salary would fit from 2014 onwards, but at least for 2013, you would be upgrading quite a bit for roughly $10 million in added salary. Would probably be getting a lot more added value than you could get on the free agency market otherwise. One of the reasons targeting Hamilton makes no sense to me, aside from the lack of money, is that Gomez/Aoki are two of the most cost efficient players on the team. Why displace one or the other?
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Jurrjens had a 2.96 ERA as recently as the 2011 season. I can't imagine the Braves let him walk unless his arm is truly shot.
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I think Greinke is going to end up in Washington. Just a hunch.
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Burnett, please no. Over-performing his peripherals and he is supposedly asking for a large contract. I think Mike Gonzalez would be the best value out of that group of pitchers.
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I'm not advocating trading A-Ram and signing Hamilton, but if you could get a return for A-Ram based on his outstanding 2012 and could sign Hamilton on a relatively team friendly deal (the only way the Brewers would be landing him), you would probably be selling high on Ramirez and buying low on Hamilton. Not necessarily horrible if the prospects/numbers involved were right. But I'm skeptical that they would line up to make the move worth it (and I don't think the Brewers are that interested in Hamilton in the first place).
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Brewers acquire Burke Badenhop from Rays for Raul Mondesi Jr.
SRB replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Huh? From 2009-2012 (since Badenhop was converted to a RP, but including a couple starts): 265.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.61 xFIP But part of that is in the AL, and last year he had a 3.03 ERA in the AL. Miller Park might be a touch more home run friendly (though not actually sure about that), but he's a groundball pitcher so wouldn't be a huge impact. I'd say an ERA around 3.50, if not below, is right on the money. -
Brewers acquire Burke Badenhop from Rays for Raul Mondesi Jr.
SRB replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
60-70 IP of 3.50-ish ERA in relief for basically nothing. Good move! -
Yeah, he might have a career as short as Paul Molitor's.
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What a loser. I commend Melvin for grabbing him for essentially nothing back in 2011, but offering him arbitration (in retrospect) is one of the biggest mistakes in recent memory.
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I have to say, I find it quite ridiculous how the media (and fans) are treating Hamilton like he is worthless simply because he has had a very public struggle with substance abuse. Do you know how many athletes are probably addicts? I'm sure it is a substantial number. (Even within the pantheon of Brewers greats, we all know of the problems that Paul Molitor overcame). I feel like the (almost surely) made-up stories linking the Brewers to Hamilton simply because Narron is here now are part of that broader media bias against him. It is kind of offensive really. For what it's worth, to me his injury-history is a legitimate concern, and I don't think I would favor giving him a huge deal. But not because he was open about overcoming addiction.
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I don't care how self righteous you are about steroids, not voting for Barry Bonds is just laughable. If Bonds isn't a unanimous first round selection then it pretty much seals the deal on the Hall of Fame being meaningless.
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Gomez is not going to get $15M/year. Part of this contract was B.J. Upton's lingering reputation from his excellent seasons in 2007-08 and teams still buying in to his elite potential. He's also been more consistent relative to Gomez. Andres Torres had a 6.9 fWAR season a couple years ago with a similar skillset to Gomez/Upton, and now he was just non-tendered by the Mets. Statistical performance and large contracts do not necessarily correlate.
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Giancarlo Stanton: Where will he wind up going?
SRB replied to TooLiveBrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Why would Stanton get traded? The Marlins modus operandi isn't exactly complex: they keep young players until they start to get expensive then they ship them off. Sometimes they sign expensive free agents in an all-in year and trade them afterwards. They've done it three times now (only in 2012 they didn't get to the World Series), so not exactly surprising. They will keep Stanton until he starts to make too much via arbitration and then he will be traded. For what it's worth, we can criticize the model all we want, but the fact is that the Marlins have been as successful if not more successful than any small market team over the last decade and a half. Maybe they're on to something... (if you value winning the World Series over everything else, which is something I don't necessarily subscribe to). -
Joel Pineiro might be an interesting/cheap flier, depending on his health.
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Looks pretty good to me, though I don't think the Brewers pick until #16? So Fields might be gone by then.