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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    (This is not a knock on Tom, by the way. The rumor system in major sports these days is pretty straightforward: front offices rarely leak negotiations unless they are doing so specifically to leverage negotiations, and in that case they leak the stories to big national reporters rather than the obvious local beat writers. Most of rumors in general come from agents (and to a lesser extent players' camps) who have established relationships with a small handful of national writers. Ergo Tom is rarely an amazing source for any information that differs from the official front office line that they give out at press conferences.)
  2. SRB
    Due respect to Tom H but he never has any inside info. Before this offseason began he was saying the Brewers didn't have money to add any significant free agents, and then went out and added Grandal and Moose. They are at record payroll so it seems unlikely there is room for Kimbrel, but anybody on here could have told you that. The fact is we don't know how much the owners are willing to spend during this Yelich/Cain prime window, and the fact that these Kimbrel stories keep getting reported (with Stearns himself confirming them) tells me that they are trying to reach some sort of deal and the Brewers are now trying to push the price down.
  3. SRB
    Sounds like Kratz is going to San Francisco
  4. SRB
    Now that Merrifield has nowhere to play for us, are there even any players on the Royals that we would want? Brad Keller is interesting but the Royals are not going to give him up for an unnecessary catcher rental.
  5. SRB
    You quite obviously have never been to San Diego Haven't lived there, but I've been to San Diego several times. Philadelphia is a much more interesting city than San Diego, unless you're afraid of snow.
  6. SRB
    It is certainly the majority of it but do you think Harper is buying a cheap house? No, but he also has to live in Philly and not San Diego. Philly >>> San Diego unless you want to live on a military base or in a zoo
  7. SRB
    Not sure why some find this deal odd. If I was in Harper's situation I would absolutely take this deal that guarantees me a third of a billion dollars (plus marketing money in a major metropolitan area where he will be the biggest star) and piece of mind that I will never have to go through free agency again. He's set for life and can just focus on his playing. It's also much better than 10/$300. Are either Harper or Machado likely to land a $30+ million plus contract in their late 30s?
  8. SRB
    Miguel Cabrera and Manny Machado are not even in the same universe offensively. Machado's value derives primarily from his defense. A better comparator would be Jason Heyward.
  9. SRB
    The Moustakas deal is much much better if he can actually play 2B. Marwin arguably has higher upside, but odds are 2017 was a fluke.
  10. SRB
    Here's an interesting experiment. As linked in another thread, Fangraphs writers held a mock "franchise player" draft in June 2011 to pick player they would build teams around going forward. Granted many are older than Machado and Harper are now, but not many of these guys will have justified a hypothetical 10/$300 million contract that season, and even fewer would warrant a 3/$90 million contract over the next three years. Franchise player draft (age at the start of 2012 spring training) - 2012-2018 fWAR 1. Evan Longoria (26 years old) - 22.1 fWAR 2. Troy Tulowitzki (27 years old) - 16.8 fWAR 3. Mike Trout (20 years old) - 64.0 fWAR 4. Ryan Zimmerman (27 years old) - 12.1 fWAR 5. Joey Votto (28 years old) - 34.4 fWAR 6. Albert Pujols (32 years old) - 6.7 fWAR 7. Carl Crawford (30 years old) - 4.6 fWAR 8. Jose Bautista (31 years old) - 20.6 fWAR 9. Miguel Cabrera (28 years old) - 29.6 fWAR 10. Ryan Braun (28 years old) - 19.1 fWAR 11. Clayton Kershaw (23 years old) - 43.7 fWAR 12. Bryce Harper (19 years old) - 30.7 fWAR 13. Hanley Ramirez (28 years old) - 12.4 fWAR 14. Jason Heyward (22 years old) - 22.7 fWAR 15. Andrew McCutchen (25 years old) - 36.3 fWAR 16. Adrian Gonzalez (29 years old) - 12.1 fWAR 17. Jay Bruce (24 years old) - 9.3 fWAR 18. Felix Hernandez (25 years old) - 22.5 fWAR 19. Matt Kemp (27 years old) - 10.1 fWAR 20. Justin Upton (24 years old) - 23.4 fWAR
  11. SRB
    I don't see why not. The list is predictive & there is a very good chance that VGJ is a top 100 player in baseball this year. I remember FanGraphs did a Franchise Player draft back in 2011 & Carson Cistulli got absolutely roasted for picking Mike Trout at #3 when he had yet to play a game above AA. Turns out he should have gone #1, There have been lots of hyped #1 prospects who flamed out so I don't think that means very much that he lucked out, but rereading that draft is pretty hilarious for how absurdly wrong everybody was in terms of 2019 value. 1. Evan Longoria 2. Troy Tulowitzki 4. Ryan Zimmerman 6. Albert Pujols 7. Carl Crawford 8. Jose Bautista 9. Miguel Cabrera 13. Hanley Ramirez 14. Jayson Heyward 16. Adrian Gonzalez 17. Jay Bruce 18. Felix Hernandez 19. Matt Kemp Granted we are now over seven years down the line, but those picks are all pretty atrocious in hindsight
  12. SRB
    Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms. That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson. Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each. Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.
  13. SRB
    People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance. Did you watch the games? We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.
  14. SRB
    Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.
  15. SRB
    Bad news for us, just adds another potential Wild Card contender.
  16. SRB
    I'm just going to go ahead and give him credit for the Grandal signing too, since they are both University of Miami alumni
  17. SRB
    They're really going to put Moose at 2B?
  18. SRB
    But what does this have to do with the Moustakas signing? Coming in to today our existing option for the same role was Corey Spangenberg: 103 wRC+ vs. RHP, 37 wRC+ vs. LHP (!!!) Moustakas is a massive upgrade. I can see the argument that we could have spent $10 million elsewhere, but it's not like there is a reverse platoon clone of Moustakas sitting out there who we could have nabbed on this deal. Moose also brings consistency: we more or less know what we're getting. I should have clarified to say starting vs. RHP, since Thames has better numbers over the last three years (Thames 128 wRC+, Aguilar 120 wRC+). Aguilar obviously way way better vs. LHP.
  19. SRB
    Thames starts the season like Barry Bonds every year, why in the world would we cut him for nothing now? Not to mention that if Thames merely repeats his Brewers performance to date he should be starting over Aguilar.
  20. SRB
    Not very scientific, but for fun Showing career high HR in a season: RF Yelich, 36 HR LF Braun, 41 HR 2B Shaw, 32 HR 1B Aguilar, 35 HR C Grandal, 27 HR CF Cain, 16 HR 3B Moustakas, 38 HR SS Arcia, 15 HR (bench) 1B/OF Thames, 31 HR The Aldermen of Ding Dong City! That's at least six regular starters who are realistic bets to hit 30+ HR (I'm counting Grandal based on the Miller Park boost). As far as I can tell the major league record for 30+ HR teammates is only four??
  21. SRB
    Not very scientific, but for fun Showing career high HR in a season: RF Yelich, 36 HR LF Braun, 41 HR 2B Shaw, 32 HR 1B Aguilar, 35 HR C Grandal, 27 HR CF Cain, 16 HR 3B Moustakas, 38 HR SS Arcia, 15 HR (bench) 1B/OF Thames, 31 HR The Aldermen of Ding Dong City!
  22. SRB
    Also, not pictured: 2B Hiura 220 wRC+ vs. RHP, 220 wRC+ vs. LHP
  23. SRB
    For a team that is going to use its bullpen a lot, I love having Thames as a huge weapon vs. RHP on the bench. Moustakas helps with that too because now on days that Perez is starting we will have Shaw on the bench rather than Spangenberg. And if a LHP is on the mound, there should always be one of Perez or Gamel on the bench (both roughly league average hitters vs LHP) I’ve never been a fan of Thames and stated last offseason that we should trade Thames and keep Choi, so I may be a little biased against him. He does have undeniable power, but K’s a lot more than I would like. He’s a first base only guy that really shouldn’t play another inning in the outfield. What would the bench look like in your opinion with him being part of the roster? I don't mind having Thames as a fifth outfielder, it's not like he should be seeing a lot of innings out there and imo he's not that horrible defensively. I would start the season with: C Pina IF Perez IF Saladino 1B/OF Thames OF Gamel If they want to go with 13 pitchers, then Saladino seems more expendable than Thames. Perez can play all over the infield to give guys days off, and when he is starting at SS it's not like Shaw isn't still a decent option at 2B (in comparison to Spangenberg, who is literally unusable vs. LHP). In fact, I imagine Shaw will probably be the everyday starter.
  24. SRB
    For a team that is going to use its bullpen a lot, I love having Thames as a huge weapon vs. RHP on the bench. Moustakas helps with that too because now on days that Perez is starting we will have Shaw on the bench rather than Spangenberg. And if a LHP is on the mound, there should always be one of Perez or Gamel on the bench (both roughly league average hitters vs LHP)
  25. SRB
    At least the lineups are pretty good, especially if Shaw is platooned: (Showing 2016-2018 splits) vs RHP 1. RF Yelich 145 wRC+ 2. LF Braun 112 wRC+ 3. 2B Shaw 120 wRC+ 4. 1B Aguilar 120 wRC+ 5. C Grandal 120 wRC+ 6. CF Cain 104 wRC+ 7. 3B Moustakas 120 wRC+ 8. SS Arcia 70 wRC+ vs LHP 1. CF Cain 148 wRC+ 2. RF Yelich 120 wRC+ 3. LF Braun 135 wRC+ 4. 1B Aguilar 136 wRC+ 5. C Grandal 103 wRC+ 6. 2B Perez 103 wRC+ 7. 3B Moustakas 96 wRC+ 8. SS Arcia 75 wRC+ Good luck trying to bring in RP to try to play the splits
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