SRB
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Everything posted by SRB
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It easily could if they now take the money saved from Burnes and spend it. The back of our rotation and bench infield depth are/were close to replacement level, so if you project Ortiz and Hall to hit the ground running with solid enough seasons (1-2 WAR each) and if they sign another averagish SP then you could have three major leaguers putting up more value than Burnes and two replacement level players.
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Corbin Burnes looked like a complete bust and wasn't allowed to start games in the majors until his breakout at 25.
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It's not an overwhelming return, but it's objectively pretty good. Even setting aside the fact that the Brewer FO might be super high on both prospects, Ortiz is a top-60 overall prospect entering 2024, and Hall was a top-60 overall prospect entering 2023. If Hall isn't on current top 100 lists it's because he's already been in the majors a bit (33.0 IP with a 11.5 K/9 and 2.44 FIP) and because Baltimore moved him to the bullpen temporarily, which the Brewers will certainly reverse. So two top-60 prospects and a first round draft pick is a solid return for a one-season rental. Not sure what people were expecting.
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Yes, good post. And there's another huge downside to taking him through the Rule 5 draft because it messes with his development. In the event he's ready to pitch again at some point in 2024 you have to pretend he's injured and lose the development time (or put him on the major league roster during the middle of a stretch run). Even if you keep him on the IL for the entirety of 2025, then you have a young kid who has never pitched above AA coming off TJ surgery and rather than working with him in the minors you have to throw him into the deep end for 3 months. It could derail his career. We tried that experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and it was not only brutal to watch but probably hampered his career.
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A "salary dump" is when a team trades a player (generally on a guaranteed contract) for pennies on the dollar because they're trying to slash overall payroll. Setting aside the fact that Crow looks like a nice prospect who we are buying low on, non-tendering or trading guys who you don't think have a role on the team is not a "salary dump" They just gave more guaranteed money than this saved us to Wade Miley! They could have just kept Houser if all they cared about was money. This is not a move signaling that the team is deadset on slashing payroll at any cost.
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Fair points, but I'm not sure how reliable Taylor really is. Am I the only one who remembers how putrid he looked most of last season? I thought he was cooked and the only reason he ended up with a passable stat line is he got super hot in September. I'd rather have Wiemer on the roster as a plus defender with pop. And even he might not make the roster since we already have Yelich/Chourio/Frelick/Mitchell/Perkins
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You keep saying this but do you really think he's going to make the jump to the majors immediately upon returning from TJ surgery in mid-2024? They can't just pretend he's injured all year. There is a huge difference in having him clogging the roster as a Rule 5 selection and having him as a prospect in the system, particularly if the team is trying to compete in 2024.
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It's not that hard to defend just from a roster construction stand point, even setting aside how much value you put on Crow. Taylor does not even have a spot on the 25-man if Chourio is going to make the opening day roster. And Houser is making too much money to be a 6th/7th SP or long reliever if they want to roll with younger players in the rotation.
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By the same logic if you think this was a "salary dump" then they could have just non-tendered Houser and Taylor. Neither is on a guaranteed contract. They clearly really like Crow, who looks like an interesting arm, and think Houser and Taylor are superfluous. Considering neither player is that amazing I assume this was the best offer they got.
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Yeah except all we traded away was one year of a back of the rotation starter and the seventh OF on our depth chart. Frees up money to spend on a useful role player.
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Fantastic numbers last season at AA as a 22 year old. He's coming back from an injury but every scouting report is suggesting he's a reliable bet to hold down a back-end rotation role. So six years of a Houser clone (or better)? Not really sure what people are mad at.
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Well I doubt he's going to be on the major league roster all year, so not the same as a Rule 5 pickup. Interesting arm for two superfluous players, Nothing to complain about here.
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He was bad by any metric, but part of that is because Detroit used him about a third of the time at OF/DH (!!!)
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I'm assuming it's a cheap deal, so some interesting upside. Catchers are flukey so I'm not that worried about his terrible 2023. If he's really bad again he can be replaced early on. Not thrilling to be sure, but as it stands right now you could try to play Contreras as much as he can handle and do a cross-positional platoon with Bauers vs. RHP and Haase vs. LHP
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Then they can have fun finishing third in the division. One year of a Cy Young caliber SP should still net us a massive return whether or not he signs an extension. I think the original proposal is more than fair if we are talking about both Burnes and Adames. The Glasnow trade isn't comparable because his value is way less than people think due to his lack of durability.
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Giants May Be Interested In Willy Adames
SRB replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Joey Bart would be an interesting pick-up since we need a second catcher anyway and if he finally starts living up to his potential we'd have plenty of AB between C/DH for both Contreras and Bart. Not sure I'd want him to be the centerpiece though. -
Lux is so much better than everyone else you've named. I don't get the idea that his name is only coming up because he's from Wisconsin. He's a former top-5 prospect who is only available at all because of his injury, and he absolutely did put it all together in the majors when he was worth 3.0 fWAR 471 PA in 2022. That being said, he's only under team control for another 3 seasons, so I think it depends on whether the front office is still hoping to compete in the short term without Burnes/Adames.
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Brewers and Nationals In On Carlos Santana
SRB replied to Jastro's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Preeetttayy boring, but I guess the current front runners for 1B and DH are Jake Bauers and Tyrone Taylor so we need somebody 🤣 -
Dear god lol 🤣 I usually try to stay optimistic but they just need to trade Burnes and Adames for as much as they can get and start focusing on 2025.
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I don't think this considers the full picture. It may be true that the Ohtani contract is less of a salary cap dodge than some people think, but it's still shady. MLB does not have a true salary cap, it has a competitive balance tax, which just means you have to pay additional $ as a penalty the more you go over it. In 2024 the Ohtani contract will eat up $46M of the Dodgers competitive balance cap, but the Dodgers will only be paying Ohtani a mere $2M. That means from a pure payroll perspective, they can add an additional $44M in extra salary plus penalties for 2024 before they reach the position they'd be in if they were just paying Ohtani on a straight $460M/10 contract. I'd have to do the math but that might be something like an extra $20-30M/year player that they could not "afford" otherwise if they were not deferring money. In other words the structure of the contract frees them up to just blow past the competitive balance tax with no financial loss for at least another decade.
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They're not going to fight it obviously, but it's not a good precedent for players, because the only reason Ohtani can do this is that he is a unique marketing phenomenon who already makes $60M on marketing deals (probably way more now that he's with the Dodgers). The second highest marketing earnings per year is Mike Trout at like $5M.
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He's not really taking less money. The true value of the contract is closer to $450M/10, which is what everyone was expecting him to get in the first place. He's benefiting from this chicanery as well by circumventing taxes on his massive contract 😂
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The world's gone topsy turvy when the most talented baseball player (athlete?) in history earns more money than the hedgefund managers and real-estate investors in ownership
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Three trade proposals from Twins Daily
SRB replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Julien was a top 100 prospect coming into 2023, at least on Fangraphs. They had Frelick at #68 and Julien at #75. -
He's a great player with untapped upside who would not even be available if not for his injury. He was worth 3.0 fWAR in 129 G for the Dodgers in 2022. Still just 26. I'm looking for immediate everyday starters who would help us compete across the next few seasons, and so aren't pure one-year rentals. Not super easy to find. Maybe Stone is too light on the pitching end. I was going off his prospect reputation without looking at his middling 2023 performance. Dodgers have a number of young MLB-ready SP though. Doubt the Dodgers are in as much of a hurry to trade for Burnes after today though 😅
