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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    He's an extremely good reliever. If he was healthy he'd have been asking for $45 million.
  2. SRB
    Doesn't seem odd to me. Rosenthal has the potential to be a lockdown reliever once he's back. For all of the handwringing about adding a bat, if you actually look at stats the bullpen was our biggest area of need. I like what they're doing. (Would still like for them to add a bat, of course.)
  3. SRB
    Good for him ?
  4. SRB
    Is the entire division updated though? I feel like the Cardinals getting Quintana/Stratton has a bigger impact than our trade.
  5. SRB
    If San Diego is eating the salary, I would actually be interested in the Brewers coming in as a third team to pick up Hosmer (if we are not on his no-trade clause or if he considers us a contender). No, he's not great overall, but he hits LHP well: .350 wOBA against LHP this season. We could use him as a 1B/DH platoon bat.
  6. SRB
    I just don't think it's possible that the BABIP is due to something Rogers is doing. Over a long enough period of time it will always trend back toward .300. In the entire history of baseball, there have only been five pitchers who maintained a >.340 BABIP over 400+ innings, and they were all old timers with career K/9 between 0.31 and 2.39 who gave up contact on almost every PA. A strikeout reliever like Rogers maintaining an elevated BABIP like that would be unprecedented and would defy all sabermetric understanding of how baseball works. I think this is just the normal flukiness of small sample sizes for relievers. The previous two seasons when Rogers had a high BABIP comprised a grand total of 60.1 innings. (And Minnesota's infield defense might have had a lot to do with it.) It also seems anomalous that his high BABIP would be due to something he is doing when he is simultaneously not giving up HR. So it's not just that he's leaving meatballs that are getting hit extremely hard.
  7. SRB
    The entire premise of BABIP (and really much of sabermetrics writ large) is that pitchers do not have control over their BABIP. It's very rare to maintain an elevated BABIP like that (say >.330) over an extended period of time. So I'm not at all concerned about Rogers having high BABIPs the last couple years. The fact remains that over his career (356.0 IP) his BABIP is only .317 and it should be expected to trend toward .300 going forward. I'd say the chances of Rogers outperforming Hader are probably relatively low (20%?), but the chance of him being a similarly elite pitcher in the same tier of great relievers such that we don't experience much of a loss is much higher (75%-80%?)
  8. SRB
    That's kind of nasty of the Padres to let this trade leak before getting Hosmer's approval. Now he's under immense pressure to accept even if he doesn't want to.
  9. SRB
    That's nothing, we just added an even higher 1st round pick (Bush, 1st overall... in 2004)
  10. SRB
    Nationals getting back less than I would have expected considering they threw in Josh Bell. *Edit* My bad, didn't see Gore was included in the initial reports.
  11. SRB
    He's been great at every step in the minors and again in MLB this season. Seems like it might be the classic case of an unheralded prospect on nobody's radar who becomes a solid reliever. So far so good at least.
  12. SRB
    He served his time in prison and then worked his way all the way back to the majors. He was working at Golden Corral and tried out for a minor league deal for the Rangers in the parking lot. Worked his way back again through two major injuries and is still plugging away. Even if you don't consider it a positive redemption story, you at least have to admit the guy deserves more credit than MLB stars who have done some terrible things and merely faced a suspension or a slap on the wrist.
  13. SRB
    With Cousins starting a rehab assignment and Strzelecki looking like another breakout reliever, the bullpen is getting pretty stacked.
  14. SRB
    Not excusing his DUI a decade ago, but he didn't kill anybody for the record.
  15. SRB
    36.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.95 ERA, 3.42 FIP. Seems pretty good to me? Not sure how we're supposed to upgrade the team to make a playoff run without giving up any prospects.
  16. SRB
    Bit steeper if Kelly is included, but I trust the front office's ability to evaluate relievers. Looks like Bush has been great this year and he's not a free agent for another couple seasons.
  17. SRB
    Here's a stat you might be surprised by: after a rocky start to the season, since June 1 in 232 PA Wong is hitting .263/.355/.455/.810
  18. SRB
    Not sure who you are thinking of, but Taylor Rogers is on his final arbitration year and was traded to the Padres this offseason for SP Chris Paddack. He is a dominant closer who has never taken a "prove it deal"
  19. SRB
    Not really my point, as practically speaking there's no way Narvaez/Caratini get sent down. Severino would be the guy to stash but he's the one who can't be optioned.
  20. SRB
    If you go by Fangraphs Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, we traded Hader (#5) but still have the #3 (Williams) and #6 (Rogers) best relievers in baseball over the rest of the year. ?
  21. SRB
    Seems obvious that one of the catchers has to go, as none of them can get sent to the minors and we aren't going to keep three catchers forever. Tampa Bay needs a catcher and has an insanely deep farm system. I'd either look for an upside reliever or a mid-range prospect in their system (who would still be quite good). Narvaez is a good player, shouldn't give him away for free.
  22. SRB
    The debate about Hader's postseason performance is silly, to be honest. You are not going to find many players who will guarantee you better than a 1.88 ERA/1.70 FIP over any stretch of time. It's an objective fact that Hader has stepped up and pitched better in the playoffs than during the regular season, against some very scary offenses like the Dodgers. The reason he might seem to have "blown" playoff games for us more than normal is that every time we get to the playoffs our offense absolutely falls apart and we make the bullpen try to single-handedly win an entire series of 1-0 games.
  23. SRB
    I'm softening on the trade after the initial shock of Hader not bringing back multiple top 100 prospects. For one thing, if you think Lamet can be a plus reliever this season (a gamble, but not a crazy gamble), our 2022 bullpen is almost undeniably better with Rogers/Lamet than just Hader.
  24. SRB
    I've followed Rogers very closely this year because he's on my fantasy team (sorry) and he's actually looked great. You could have made a case that he was the best closer in baseball this season heading into July, and then he hit a rough patch that involved a lot of flukey hits more than him looking bad. His FIP and other peripherals are still fantastic.
  25. SRB
    We only have him for 1.5 seasons, so even if Lamet became a dominant reliever overnight (a huge if), we'd be trading 1.5 seasons of maybe the best reliever in baseball for 2.0 seasons of elite relievers (0.5 of Rogers, 1.5 of Lamet), plus two non-elite prospects. The only way I'm not disappointed in this trade is if they think Lamet can be a top-of-the-rotation starter again. Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Lamet-Lauer/Ashby would be a crazy rotation.
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