SRB
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Everything posted by SRB
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Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers for SS Gavin Lux, SP Gavin Stone, and a low-minors flier. Dodgers get much better in 2024 and we get more years of cost-controlled major leaguers without giving up on the short term.
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If we're trading Burnes we might as well give up on 2024 and trade Adames in a separate deal. From the Yankees, I'd try to buy low on Jasson Dominguez and/or Oswald Peraza.
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I mean, if you are already assuming he is a top 5 bat on the team, then yes obviously he'll be up. But I doubt they want to rush him when he has barely played at AAA and we have plenty of CF options. The RoY angle is a good point though that I hadn't though of, and is a strong incentive to promote him early in the season at the latest unless he's really floundering at AAA.
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He'll definitely be in the majors at some point in 2024, but I don't see why this deal makes it any more likely that he's the opening day CF. They had an opportunity to lock him up for a longterm deal that he probably wouldn't have wanted to negotiate during the season. I wouldn't rush him for no reason. Seems like he should start at AAA and play his way up.
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I'm not counting him on being a huge contributor obviously, but seems better than the average scrapheap deal. Sounds like the stuff is still good and his underlying metrics were solid in 2021.
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I'm guessing the two option years will be a fairly high AAV, but still this a rare move that should be beyond criticism for any Brewer fan 😂 Yes, there's a higher risk of total flameout than with an established free agent, but the upside is enormous and 2-4 extra years of a potential superstar is something that the Brewers franchise simply could not get on the open market otherwise (without overpaying for an existing player like with the Yelich extension). And while there is some downside if he flames out, he doesn't even need to be that good to justify a $10 million AAV. Wiemer was worth more than that last season. Also, maybe $80 million guaranteed sounds like a lot, but if Chourio is in the majors at all for 6+ years and is halfway decent he would be earning a significant portion of that through arbitration anyway.
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I must be in the minority, but I thought Wiemer had a very encouraging debut season and I would pencil him in as our regular CF. I'm even more optimistic about him than Frelick or Mitchell. Yeah he was inconsistent and had some rough patches on offense, but he showed elite defense and enough hot streaks to make me believe in the offensive upside. What more do you want in a rookie season for a 24-year-old who was rushed pretty quickly to the majors (<200 PA at AAA) To me his value is higher after holding his own in the majors than when he was purely a top-100 prospect.
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I'm not interested in gambling on the upside given that he will not be cheap. It feels unprecedented for a guy to just lose his feel for pitching as much as Manoah did this last season. It's not like he had a few blowups that inflated his ERA. He looked completely lost, even in the minors.
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I think people will chill out over time about this. Counsell was a likable presence and a solid enough manager, but (1) he is not some sort of managerial savant, and most of the posts on here during games were rightfully complaining about his poor decisionmaking and roster management, and (2) he spent most of his career elsewhere and only spent a few seasons on the Brewers at the tail end of his career. I vaguely remember knowing that he was from Whitefish Bay during his time here as a player, and it became a nice story when he returned to his hometown team as a manager, but minus that "nice story" I doubt people would even care about this at all. It's very different from a hometown player leaving during free agency, and it would be very different if this was Robin Yount or someone who was an iconic Brewer mainstay. Counsell has a nice run here as manager, but if anything we have underperformed from the level of talent on the roster despite making the playoffs regularly. I don't care that he's leaving for a rival. I will barely remember he's there just like I barely remembered that David Ross was the manager.
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Onward to the future, who is your preferred 2024 field manager
SRB replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How has Mark Kotsay managed in Oakland? It's weird how many former players who've become managers in recent years played for the Brewers. -
Because we used to have old school front offices who hired bad, old school managers. Counsell overlapped with the start of the Stearns era and I expect Matt Arnold will hire a similar candidate (younger, more analytically minded).
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Ok, bye. Seems even crazier if it is all guaranteed, but $40 million over 5 years is still a ludicrous contract for a manager. I'm glad the Brewers didn't match and I don't blame Counsell for taking it. Managers should not be making that much. It's so easy to replace Counsell with a guy with the exact same skill set. Only difference is we lose the hometown boy angle, but oh well.
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Predictions - Wild Card Round vs Arizona
SRB replied to RobDeer 45's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Brewers over D-Backs in 1 (mercy rule after the score gets out of hand) -
I love the narrative of Counsell managing the hometown Brewers, he's a very likeable presence, and I hope he stays for a long time, but does anyone actually care that much if he leaves? I don't think it's hard to find a replacement manager who can make equally good strategy calls and manage the clubhouse equally well. There are still some teams who put incompetent dinosaurs out there but I'm confident in our front office finding an adequate replacement. Not sure it's worth paying him an extra $3 million if the Mets are willing to blow him out of the water financially.
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Hiura has been amazing all season with the lowest K% of his career and he's already 27. Why even keep him in the system if they're not going to call him up on an offense starved team? Let him pursue an opportunity somewhere else.
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Brewers Sign Josh Donaldson; To Report to AAA Nashville
SRB replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This is a fantastic move. He's still a great defender and all advanced metrics suggest he was unlucky at the plate in a small sample size this year (.349 xwOBA.) No brainer upgrade over all of our other fading 3B options. I would promote J-Don and let him play every single day the rest of the season. -
Canha makes us better though I'll be interested to see how they plan on utilizing him. As with the Santana trade, I like it in a vacuum but we still need a big move to make a real difference.
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I said projected, not year-to-date. Willy Adames is currently the 19th ranked SS and 130th overall, so thank goodness this forum doesn't run the team or we would be dumping him for salary relief 🤣
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I got it by... looking at rest-of-season projections? ZiPS is going to severely undervalue him because he's been inconsistent/injured and so he's had down years at 26. As I keep saying in this thread, you only trade for Jimenez if you think his true talent level if closer to his peaks than his valleys. If you aren't interested in the Brewers ever acquiring a potential middle-of-the-order hitter, as many on here apparently are not, then yeah you can take the most pessimistic/cautious view possible and assume that Jimenez will never be better than his career stats at 26.
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Jose Ramirez if he were available, though Cleveland never seems to do a full-on rebuild.
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Eloy Jimenez is projected as around a top-25 hitter in all of baseball. This thread is crazy!
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You can debate whether he's worth it or not, I'm just predicting what it will realistically take to actually land him. Personally I'd be happy to pay the asking price, others apparently disagree and don't want to roll the dice on huge offensive upside. Brown is closer to a realistic starting point than Jarvis, assuming the White Sox evaluators really love Brown.
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He's not a superstar but he's absolutely a star and focusing on his career numbers at age 26 overlooks how front offices value players. His non-speculative upside is a .900 OPS hitter when fully healthy. That's what makes him way more valuable than guys who might be close to him in wRC+ over the same time period at different ages and with different physical tools/skillsets. I'm not comparing the two in terms of talent, but as an example just look at the contract that Bryce Harper got in 2019 at age 26 even though three of the preceding five seasons he had been <3.0 WAR.
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Ohtani has a higher wRC+ than him?! I guess we really should be getting him for free. I used Devin Williams as an example because high-end closers are another category of player that is undervalued (at least in terms of market/trade value) based on WAR alone, but the point is more just about fans proposing trades where they get star players for practically nothing.
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Severino is a more interesting prospect than Jarvis/Moore, but that's just my opinion. If you think that Jimenez is mediocre and are expecting the White Sox to just give him to us for a lower tier prospect, you are going to be sorely disappointed in the trade deadline this year. I guarantee you that if Jimenez is traded there will be a top-100 prospect involved. This is classic homerism from the other side, no different than "The Brewers should trade us Devin Williams for our #19 organizational depth prospect!" type proposals
