JosephC

My big problem with the fangraphs assessment is this. They say normal dropoff for a player in the 31-37 age range is 0.5 per year and use that for the 2018, 2019 and 2020 seasons. But they start the entire evaluation by saying a depth chart projection of Braun for 2017 is 1.9 WAR, which would be 1.3 WAR less than the 3.2 he was credited for in 2016! Why such a big disparity? In the end fangraphs projects the WARs as 1.9, 1.4, 0.9, 0.4 and then calculates out his value as 41 million dollars. But if there is a 0.5 WAR dropoff each year, including from 2016 (3.2) to 2017, the WARs are 2.7, 2.2, 1.7, 1.2 and in that case his value calculates out to 70.27 million dollars...nearly a 30 million dollar difference because of the 1.3 drop in WAR they use right from the start.

Best guess at current Dodger prospect surplus values. Top 100 estimates taken from thepointofpittsburgh: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ 1B/OF - Cody Bellinger = 62 million (hitter 11-25) OF - Alex Verdugo = 38.2 million (hitter 26-50) RHP - Jose De Leon = 29.8 million (pitcher 26-50) RHP - Yadier Alvarez = 29.8 million (pitcher 26-50) 2B - Willie Calhoun = 20.6 million (hitter 76-100) OF - Yusniel Diaz = 20.6 million (hitter 76-100) RHP - Walker Buehler = 15.6 million (pitcher 76-100) OF - Andrew Toles = 12 million (posted 1.4 WAR in brief MLB appearance last year, not sure how to value him) RHP-Jordan Sheffield = 10 million C - Austin Barnes = 10 million SS - Gavin Lux = 10 million C - Will Smith = 10 million RHP - Brock Stewart = 5 million OF - Starling Heredia = 5 million 2B - Omar Estevez = 5 million RHP - Imani Abdullah = 5 million RHP - Josh Sborz = 5 million C - Keibert Ruiz = 5 million RHP - Chase De Jong = 5 million SS - Brendon Davis = 5 million RHP - Jacob Rhame = 5 million OF - Jacob Scavuzzo = 5 million 2B - Micah Johnson = 5 million RHP - Mitchell White = 5 million SS - Ronny Brito = 5 million OF - Johan Mieses = 5 million OF - D.J. Peters = 5 million OF - Mitchell Hansen = 5 million RHP - Yaisel Sierra = 5 million NOTE : Just upgraded Buehler from 10 million surplus value to 15.6 million surplus value and have updated my previous post as well. Took it from being about a 4 million Dodger advantage to a 2 million dollar Brewer advantage. Still pretty much an even trade IMO.

Braun + Villar to the Dodgers does make a ton of sense if the Dodgers strike out on Dozier. But I do think the Dodgers will get that deal done. If Braun goes to LA it's almost certain that the Dodgers will want to included Puig in the deal as it was in August. It also makes sense that the Dodgers will want to dump Kazmir or McCarthy on Milwaukee and McCarthy makes a lot more sense for the Brewers as he is only owed half of what Kazmir is still scheduled to be paid. If you trust the Steamer projections then you can expect nothing back from LA as I already jokingly detailed on the last page. Steamer projected Braun as a 1.7 WAR player in 2017 despite him being a 4.4 WAR (Baseball Reference) player in 2016, Villar as being a 1.0 WAR player in 2017 (3.9 WAR in 2016) and Puig being a 2.9 WAR player in 2017 despite the fact that he didn't combine for that total in 2015 (1.1) and 2016 (1.4) combined. I'd project the following WARs to each of the major leaguers through their controlled seasons: Braun = 4.0, 3.2, 1.9, 1.0 (4.4 WAR in 2016) Villar = 2.5, 2.5, 2.5,2.5 (3.9 WAR in 2016) Puig = 1.7, 1.8, 1.8 (1.4 WAR in 2016) McCarthy = minimal to negative (negative WARs in both 2015 and 2016) Using Reilly's estimate of 1 WAR = 8.4 million in 2017, 1 WAR = 8.8 million in 2018, 9.2 WAR in 2019 and 9.6 WAR in 2020, the values of players is as follows: Braun = 88.84 million Villar = 90 million Puig = 46.68 million McCarthy = 0 Put Villar's 2017 salary as 0.6 million and then estimate the arbitration years using the 40/60/80 estimate, and then credit Puig as making 14 million in 2017 and 2018 and then 80% of his worth in 2019 (arbitration year). Braun is guaranteed 80 million over the last four years of his contract. When subtracting earnings the surplus value for each player is: Braun = +8.84 million Villar = +47.6 million Puig = +19.43 million McCarthy = -20 million So with the Brewers giving up +8.84, +47.6 and then eating 20 million on the McCarthy contract, the Brewers "contribution" to the deal is 76.44 million. The Dodgers surrender 19.43 million in Puig so the Brewers should get approximately 57.01 million back in prospect surplus value. While Bellinger is possible I just don't see the Dodgers including him in any deal that doesn't return elite MLB starting pitching. De Leon is possible too but I don't think they'd trade him in a "perfect fit" deal. I don't think a Braun deal represents that but a Dozier deal would. The Dodgers would be locking themselves into Braun long term and I just don't think Villar would be nearly as attractive to them as a 2B that hit 42 home runs last year. Alex Verdugo's surplus value is +38.2 million and he's probably the highest rated player the Dodgers would be willing to let go. I'd probably say 7-11 on MLB.com's top 30 list probably get assigned a surplus value of about 10 million. After that I'd put surplus value at about 5 million. So I'd guess: Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun (+8.8) IF-Jonathan Villar (+47.6) (total = +56.4) Brewers get: OF-Yasiel Puig (+19.43) RHP-Brandon McCarthy (-20) OF-Alex Verdugo (+38.2) RHP-Walker Buehler (+15.6) OF-Starling Heredia (+5) (total = +58.23)

Well if you go by steamer/fangraphs projections. Braun will only be a 1.8 WAR player in 2017. So assume 1.8, 1.3, 0.8, 0.3 WAR over the next four seasons. Saying a win is worth 8.4 million in 2017, 8.8 million in 2018, 9.2 million in 2019 and 9.6 million in 2020...that would put Braun's value over the next four seasons at 36.8 million (even though Baseball Reference's 4.4 WAR would have valued Braun at 35.2 million in 2016). Since Braun's contract guarantees 80 million dollars that puts Braun's value at -43.2 million dollars. Villar may have posted a 3.9 WAR in 2016 but is only projected at 1 WAR in 2017. So assume WARs something like 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.4 over the next four seasons. That would bring his worth over the next four years to 63 million using the same dollar/WAR values used above. Then put Villar down for making 0.6 million next year and use the 40/60/80 estimate for the 3 arbitration years and over the four seasons the payout comes to 35.32 million...so put Villar's surplus value at +27.68 million. So to package Braun and Villar together would be a negative proposition for the trading team because their combined value is -15.52 million dollars. Brandon McCarthy is a -20 million dollars surplus value at this point so putting him in the deal swings the negative from the Dodger's side to the Brewer's side by about 4.5 million dollars. That's probably the equivalent of a 15'ish player on their top prospects list. So, according to the steamers/fangraphs projections, I would say a fair deal would be something like: Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun IF-Jonathan Villar Brewers get: RHP-Brandon McCarthy RHP-Brock Stewart Does that sound like a fair deal to you guys?

Last year Steamer (where these projections are coming from) projected Braun to finish 2016 with an .818 OPS so they missed that by nearly 100 points. I also question the metrics that Braun will slash a .280/.349/.491/.840 and will be a sub 2 WAR player as a corner outfielder. Sorry, Braun's defense isn't so bad that it would knock down that type of an offensive performer that dramatically. Last year Braun's UZR/150 was on the negative side but it wasn't a huge negative (-3.3). His DRS last year was a +6. He has never posted a DRS negative season ever while in left field. Braun's .349/.491/.840 isn't worth 2 wins above replacement but Adam Eaton's .362/.428/.790 is worth 6 wins above replacement? I say bull to the metrics that say Eaton's defense and baserunning is worth an extra 4 wins when basically being limited to defense and baserunning. I would feel differently if we were talking about Alfonso Soriano's defense but Braun's defense just isn't that bad according to UZR/150 and DRS. This is one of the many reason's I keep moving away from fangraphs and look at Baseball Reference's WAR values. On the flip side of that is Matt Garza. In 2015 Matt Garza posted a pitiful 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Fangraphs somehow came up with Garza as actually being above replacement level with numbers like that (+0.6 WAR). Baseball Reference had him as a -1.7 WAR. I know all about FIP and "known outcomes," the theory behind it and that value calculations are largely based these statistics. But after watching Garza pitch in 2015, if someone is going to tell me that his pitching performance was 0.6 wins above replacement level my response is they better go back to the drawing board and work on their metrics a little bit more.

They also have Tommy Milone as the third most valuable pitcher on the staff (1.2 WAR behind Guerra's 1.9 and Davies 1.6). Among the hitters the Villar projection is the most questionable. I could see Thames flopping but it's hard to see him being .626 OPS bad. It seems like Shaw is about the fairest evaluation of the bunch, but he's blessed because he is a product of the AL East and therefore will get the benefit of a doubt.

Gennett's value of being a Brewer in 2017 seems to outweigh his value as a trade chip. He does have positive trade value but it would be minimal. The Brewers could probably trade him for a role player type prospect and a fringe prospect. Chances are that one of those two players would never see the majors and the one that does probably would only have about a 20% chance of making a meaningful impact in the big leagues. Even though he doesn't have versatility, he still could end up being a decent contributor for the Brewers in 2017 because there are so many other questions around the diamond. If Arcia isn't ready or Shaw can't post an OBP above .300, then Villar can move to the left side of the diamond and Gennett can step in at second base. If Thames craps out at 1B then Shaw probably moves to 1B, Villar moves to 3B and 2B is opened back up for Gennett. While everybody should feel pretty good about Villar there is an outside chance that he could regress. Gennett would also the first guy off the bench if injury strikes one of the projected starting four. Depending on how things shake out, having a guy with his starting experience could pay some solid dividends depending on what happens with rest of the infield.

I'm totally with you on this. There is just nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point. He's not from here. His wife is not from here. His kids are so young that moving them would definitely not qualify as "uprooting" the family. The Brewers are not a good team and the earliest they will be a good team would probably be 2019. If they will be a good team it will probably all have to come from the farm system as this market will never provide enough money to lure big-time free agents here. All of his area restaurant businesses have seem to gone belly-up (not 100% sure about that, please correct me if wrong). His biggest endorsement deals in the states evaporated after the PED scandal. So what exactly is keeping him here, his love for the wonderful city of Milwaukee (LOL!). He isn't getting any younger and his window to win is getting short. Of all the major league franchises, the Brewers probably have just about the lowest odds of winning a World Series within the next four years. Not to mention that there is the possibility that he could guarantee himself another 11 million dollars if he can get the 2021 season turned into a player option. There appears to be a lot more reasons for Braun to leave than there is to stay.

I don't see what valuing his family has to do with anything? Will he value his family less if they are living in Dallas instead of Milwaukee? It's not really that big of a deal to move, especially being a major leaguer with all the support they get from the franchise. His oldest child isn't even three years old yet, so it's not like he'd be pulling the kids away for friendships they had developed over the course of several years. Would his wife really be so much in love with Milwaukee over other cities? This is Milwaukee we are talking about. Aren't all his restaurant deals dead at this point? Didn't he lose pretty much all of his endorsement deals after the PED thing? Earning opportunities which would benefit his family would probably be far greater in most markets not named Milwaukee. It's funny because the one place that nobody thinks Braun would be willing to go (myself included) is Toronto. But Braun's wife is from Toronto so if she wants to go there and Braun values his family that just might be the prime landing spot for the Braun's.

I'll take a crazy guess on how Braun would view trade partners: Teams that Braun would waive his no trade rights for: Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Chicago Cubs (should be very good through the next four years) Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants Teams that Braun would request 2021 become a player option, but would back off if told that wouldn't happen: Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Houston Astros (good market and interesting young team) Texas Rangers Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals (not ideal market, but they have been so good for so many seasons...well run organization) Arizona Diamondbacks (geography is a big factor here) San Diego Padres Teams that Braun would request 2021 become a player option, and would veto a trade unless the teams will willing to do this: Baltimore Orioles (maybe not ideal in terms of geography, but a pretty good team in the AL East) Detroit Tigers (northern market but it's a good franchise and the owner has spent some money and made some bold moves in the past) Oakland A's (Braun probably wouldn't like the franchise, but it's got California going for it) Atlanta Braves (Braun may have vetoed a deal in the past but the Braves were in a horrible year, it's a southern market with a new stadium) New York Mets (New York market...but the Mets just aren't the Yankees) Teams that Braun would probably just veto: Tampa Bay Rays (would love the market, would hate the franchise) Toronto Blue Jays Chicago White Sox (think Braun would like Chicago, but the White Sox have just entered a rebuild) Cleveland Indians (great last year but is it sustainable...not an ideal market) Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Seattle Mariners (hardest team to make a guess on, not a bad market and they won 86 games last year but they are in the north...maybe shouldn't rule them out) Philadelphia Phillies (love the market, but they've been a bad, bad team) Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates Colorado Rockies (might like Denver, but they've been under .500 for six straight seasons)

Could you go into detail because I am curious how he is going to improve that much. His defense isn't going to get better. Probably slowly worse the next 4 years. The only way his WAR is going to be "much higher" is offensively. Braun is actually more like a 5.5 WAR player, but he sits out a good chunk of games these days it knocks it down a bit. Ryan Braun is not going to play 160 games to increase his WAR and he just isn't the magical hitter he was back in 2011/2012. Don't get me wrong he is still up there among some of the best, but he isn't going to revert back to those kind of numbers. Higher WAR in 2017 not relative to Braun's 2016 WAR, but a higher WAR projection relative to what reilly projected. He has Braun at the following WARs over the next four years : 3.3, 2.8, 2.3, 1.8. I'd project 4.0, 3.2, 1.9, 1.0. I don't see Braun being that much worse in 2017 and only project a 0.4 drop-off from 2016 to 2017. However I anticipate Braun's WAR falling off much more dramatically later in the contract. Reilly's sum is 10.2 WAR, I'm at 10.1 WAR. Using Reilly's 5% increase in $/WAR over the next four years, the worth of Braun in each year would be 33.6 million, 26.88 million, 17.48 million and 9.6 million for a total of 87.56 million. Add in the deferred money aspect of the contract and I see him as having 8-10 million surplus value.

I think reilly did a pretty good job with estimating a surplus value on Braun's contract in post 630. Without going into detail, when doing this exercise myself I would project Braun to have a much higher WAR in 2017 (and I would base it off the 4.4 WAR Baseball Reference credited him with in 2016 as I trust their WAR numbers more than fangraphs), but on the back end I would have a much more dramatic WAR dropoff. reilly comes up with about a 17-20 million estimate in surplus value, I would be lower and probably put it in the 8-10 million dollar range. Cain's contract is 100% dead money. He has been a negative WAR pitcher and there is no indication that he'll turn that around. I can't look at that deal and say his contract is 27.5 million and the subtract out a value based on a net positive contribution in 2017 because there will be no net positive contribution in 2017. Including him is simply tacking on another 27.5 million dollars of surplus value on top of the 8-10 million of surplus value the Brewers should get for trading Braun. So based on my WAR estimates for Braun a Braun/Cain swap should bring back the Brewers approximately 35.5 million in surplus value. Taking pointofpittsburgh's prospect surplus value table and assuming that the Giant's prospect rankings are currently accurate, #1 prospect Christian Arroyo is worth 20.6 million in surplus value and #2 prospect Tyler Beede is worth 15.6 million. So the two of them at 36.1 almost perfectly offset the 35.5 million estimate for Braun/Cain. The numbers suggest it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest a Braun for Cain/Arroyo/Beede swap. I personally would probably jump off Arroyo and prefer to have Beede, 1B-Chris Shaw, LHP-Andrew Suarez and maybe try to pry OF-Heath Quinn out of them. The problem with this entire scenario is that Cain has 10/5 rights. Virtually a guarantee that Cain would demand that the option year be turned into a fully guaranteed year in exchange for him waiving his 10/5 rights...which in turn makes him totally untradeable.

I think the Dodgers will move De Leon in a deal for Brian Dozier. If I'm in the GM chair 4 pitchers are locked into the rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias. Then they have 4 veteran candidates to pick from to lock down the last spot of the rotation: Alex Wood, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun Jin-Ryu. Then after those 8 there are still three more candidates to pick from in Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart and Chase De Jong. The Dodgers will still have 8 candidates even if 3 of these players are moved prior to this season. One will probably be either Kazmir or McCarthy in a salary dump. No doubt the Dodgers would probably like to be rid of both at this point but finding takers for both would be difficult. Stewart or De Jong would be a good second chip or an excellent third chip in any trade. The two guys in the list of seven expendables that have real value are Jose De Leon and Alex Wood. Considering De Leon has less than one year of service time and Wood is in arbitration (and has had injury problems), De Leon is the more valuable and if you are going to make a trade for a significant piece this is the guy the trading partner is going to hold out for because they know all of what I've detailed above. The top four in the rotation are all controlled for multiple seasons (Kershaw can opt-out but does anyone see the Dodgers letting him walk away?), which makes De Leon an expendable piece. I realize some folks can make a totally valid argument that Brian Dozier played over his head last year and may not have the much better long-term value than Braun when looking at all sorts of different factors. Dozier only has two years of control remaining. Dozier has only posted an OPS over .762 one time. Dozier's lifetime MLB OBP is only a pretty unspectacular .320. Dozier's WAR values have been erratic over the last three seasons (5.2, 2.4, 6.5). That being said, I think Dozier should be their top priority. They have a glaring need at second base and Dozier smashed left-handed pitching last year (.282/.352/.613/.965 and has a .834 OPS against lefties from 2014-2016). Played in at least 155 games in each of the last three years. Defensive metrics probably put him as a slightly above average second baseman (negative UZR/150 in 2016, but had a plus UZR/150 in 2015 and was on the plus side in DRS in both 2015 and 2016). And just to go kind of old school...42 home runs in 2016 from a second baseman. The Twins had said early in the off-season that Dozier was off-limits and then backed off a bit. I think they'll deal him but it certainly won't be a bargain deal. If I'm the Dodger's GM I obviously start negotiations low but in the end I'd probably expect to do something like: Dodgers get: 2B-Brian Dozier Twins get: RHP-Jose De Leon RHP-Walker Buehler C-Will Smith OF-Johan Mieses

I don't think there will be much talk about Braun until Edwin Encarnacion is signed. He is the last really good middle of the order bat left on the market. Once he's gone then names like Braun and J.D. Martinez will probably start popping up again.

Looking back through Baseball America's Prospect Handbooks, and based on their reports it seems like a stretch to think that Bandy will be an everyday catcher. Looks to have everything defensively, but it sounds like he's very much a longshot to hit enough to stick in a starting lineup. Granted, last year was his first real look as a major leaguer, but a .281 OBP does not inspire confidence that he will be even an average offensive player. I love him though as a backup. The Prospect Handbooks not only mention his ability to throw out runners, but also mention that "pitchers like throwing to him." Considering the number of young pitchers that will probably be on the Brewers staff over the next few years...Bandy's acquisition could pay off with just this attribute alone. Hopefully he'll hit better than what I am expecting.

I'm not nearly impressed enough by the Giant's farm system to see any deal where I'd be willing to take on Matt Cain's contract. Cain is still owed 27.5 million (20 million in 2017 and then a 7.5 million buyout in 2018 assuming he doesn't hit 200 innings which is unlikely). Was a really mediocre pitcher in 2013 and 2014 and has been below replacement value in each of the last two seasons...he can be evaluated as nothing other than a negative value pitcher. To balance out taking on all of Cain's contract that Giants would have to include both Arroyo and Beede which would be pretty unlikely.

Don't see that as being an issue as Brandon McCarthy was one of the 3 players that was reported to be agreed on in the Braun/Dodger trade that wasn't completed in August. McCarthy will turn 34 during the 2017 season and was a -0.3 WAR player in 2015 and a -0.2 WAR player in 2016 (Baseball Reference). He is the definition of a negative value player. He is due 20 million dollars over the next two seasons which would be 25% of Braun's contract right there.

I think the Blue Jays are probably the best fit at this point, which unfortunately is one of the handful of markets that Braun would flat-out refuse to be traded too.

It would be interesting to know how the Dodgers value Scott Kazmir. Actually, it would be more interesting to know how badly the Dodgers want to dump Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has two years left on his contract, but there is 8 million in deferred money for each of the three seasons in the contract. So even though Kazmir is under contract for 2 more years, he will get paid 8 million every year for the next five years which makes it a 2 year, 40 million dollar commitment for the Dodgers (or another team). Considering they just signed Rich Hill and already have commitments to two other lefties in their rotation, one has to figure that Kazmir probably now has negative value to them. Over the last five years his WAR totals (Baseball Reference) have been 0.0 (DNP in 2012), 1.1, 1.7, 3.3, 0.2. What would another team think they could get out of Scott Kazmir over the next two seasons? He's probably out of his peak years (turns 33 in January) and it really looks like 2015 was his last hurrah. He's need to be a 5 WAR player over those two seasons to hit the break even point when factoring in the deferred payments. Along with McCarthy he looks like he is solidly in negative value territory. I would never suggest the Brewers take on all 40 million of Kazmir's contract, but maybe taking on Kazmir and having the Dodgers include 20 million would bump up that prospect return a little more.

There was talk that Holland's agent was looking for a 2 year, 20-22 million dollar contract. But Holland was only throwing 88-91 during a workout in early November, so it seems like that asking price is pretty unreasonable. No doubt it will drop over the next few weeks. Whether it gets down to something workable for a team like Milwaukee is a big question. He's my favorite of the bunch, but I'd probably only be willing to do something like a 1 year, 5 million dollar deal (and maybe a second option year).

Braves and White Sox would be the farm systems that would be under-rated when just looking at depth. The top-end talent in the Braves system probably puts them right up there with Milwaukee in discussions about which team has the best farm system. The White Sox are probably borderline top 5 after the recent trades they made. Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh should be a bit higher too. But overall, I think using the 50+ method probably puts about 80% of the teams right where they should be.

Before the trade MLB.com had Dubon at #12 on the Red Sox prospect list, but Baseball America had Dubon at #7. He was obviously behind what was Boston's "big five" and 1B-Sam Travis was #6. Dubon might not be a top 100 prospect, but he's probably not too far off that list.

I agree and yes I hope I'm wrong too. This trade looks like the Brewers think the same thing and rushed to unload him before that happens. I can't say I blame them. Stearns seems to value players somewhat differently than many of the people who make "the lists." And while MLB.com does do fairly frequent updates to their lists, it still doesn't happen in real time. So not only is there variability from one evaluator to the next, some players are way lower than they should be on certain lists because whoever assembles and maintains the list maybe hasn't done a recent review of that prospect's progress. Like Brandon Woodruff on the Brewer's list. I also think Dubon may provide an example of this. There is no way anyone could argue to merits of Boston's minor league system prior to these recent deals. Their "top 5" was probably the best in baseball. But I would argue that their system as a whole did not nearly have the depth that the Brewers had. Outside of Dubon and RHP-Roniel Raudes I really didn't think they had all that much quality once moving past the #7/#8 players on the list. On the other hand I would have put the Brewers as being really solid through the first 11 or so, and then still see plenty of players I like for one reason or another sprinkled through the rest of the list (Lopez, Woodruff, Cordell, etc). But when Dubon went from Boston's list to Milwaukee's list he went from #12 to #9. I don't think that was because Boston's farm system was that much stronger than Milwaukee's in the 8-13 range, I think somebody re-evaluated what Dubon did this last year and adjusted his value/rating upwards. Obviously no proof of that, just a feeling that's what happened.

Shaw just doesn't have the upside where one would figure he sticks in the starting lineup for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers for multiple seasons. But he does have enough potential where he could be a fine "second-division" starter a third for several seasons. It's not at all crazy to see a player like Shaw go into Miller Park and hit 25 home runs, slash something like .260/.320/.480/.800 and play plus defense at third base. If he achieves that he probably sticks in the lineup for several seasons for Milwaukee and then Stearns has traded three years of a setup man/closer for five years of a starter at third base (plus). To me the only thing with Shaw is if he will get on-base enough. If his OBP sticks at about .300 the power and defense will not be good enough and he'll be a bust. But if he stays in the .320 to .330 range he will start a lot of games for Milwaukee.

I do think that it is important to acknowledge the volatility and imprecision of defensive metrics, but by the same token the existence of volatility and imprecision do not mean the individual results were themselves imprecise. The best answer for how good Eaton actually was defensively last year probably comes from a mix of the statistical results and first hand impressions from watching him play for an extended period of time. To that end, I bet Washington's scouts (and Rizzo himself is a very well regarded scout) gave the thumbs up on whether or not they thought his glove would play in center. I hardly saw him play defense at all last year so I can't really comment on the subjective first-hand viewing piece of it. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility he was really, really good in the outfield last year, so I tend to defer to the metrics available. I'm in no way saying that the +22 DRS number is inaccurate. I'm assuming the DRS on Fangraph's comes from the same folks that publish The Fielding Bible of which I am a buyer. I trust their methodology and tend to place DRS higher than UZR/150 when attempting to evaluate the defensive ability of a player. But on the flip side, Eaton's 2016 performance does Washington no good moving forward. And when there is a corner outfielder that posts a sub-.800 OPS and has a +22 DRS then nearly half of his value comes from defense and I have to question how legitimate it is to think that value will project forward into future seasons. And I love Eaton's contract and realize the value there but the Nationals traded a pitcher that projects as a staff ace, a second pitcher that probably projects as a #2/#3 and yet another good prospect on top of that for a corner outfielder that hasn't posted an .800 OPS yet (or an average fielding centerfielder that hasn't posted an .800 OPS yet). I'm a big believer in sabermetrics but sometimes find it useful to go back and take a look at some of the "old school" numbers to put some perspective on things. Total bases is an obvious favorite. Looked it up and Eaton was 58th in MLB last year (265). Couldn't help but notice that Villar was just above him, tied for 53rd with 269. Villar also had a higher OBP (.369 versus .362). I really didn't need to go any further than this. I can't see it as being anything other than a massive overpay by the Nationals.