JosephC

Packers likely involved with trades today, but day three projections are too hard with too little time. That said, here are my day three predications- 4-126 - Mason McCormick/OG/South Dakota State 5-168 - Myles Cole/DE/Texas Tech 5-169 - Omar Brown/S/Nebraska 6-190 - Kamal Hadden/CB/Tennessee 6-202 - Joe Milton/QB/Tennessee 6-219 - AJ Barner/TE/Michigan 7-245 - Dalton Tucker/OG/Marshall 7-255 - Kyler Baush/DT/Minnesota

So onto predictions for today. I see LB, S, OG, CB as being the top needs. Washington has two picks ahead of the Packers and Seattle has one, and LB has shown up on the needs list for each of those teams. If the Packers are dead set on taking a linebacker, they could move up. However, with DeJean and Rakestraw making it out of round one, Kool-Aid McKinstry still on the board, Edgerrin Cooper and Payton Wilson...there are enough attractive candidates that I'd guess Gutekunst just sits back and takes whoever falls to him. I still think he would prefer to go linebacker here. I guess Cooper is the first to go and Wilson makes it to the Packers. So I'll guess Payton Wilson at #41. I was a lean towards fast-rising safety Jaden Hicks as being the Packers pick at #58. Now I think he's going to be off the board. The type of corners I think the Packers will be looking for will largely be cleaned out, with the exception of Max Melton, who I think is a good possibility. Guard candidates, there are quite a few. My gut feeling just tells me that they will go safety. If Hicks is there, I think the Packers take him, but think Nubin and Hicks will be the two that will be off the board. Javon Bullard would be the obvious guy left, but with all the talk of a single high safety and the other one walking down and having to cover, I'm going to go against who I probably should pick and will predict that the Packers take Texas Tech safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson. I had him in to Green Bay in the first mock I did, and will go back to him here. Smarter money would be on Hicks or Bullard, but I'll go with the sleeper and predict Taylor-Demerson. #88 - I think Gutekunst would be perfectly content at this point to just go with a "best player" available pick since he has already checked left tackle, linebacker and safety off the list...but there are so many corners grading out as late third rounders that I think it's likely he grabs one at #88 or #91 unless he's already taken one earlier. I'll predict CB-Renardo Green/Florida State. #91 - I'll go with Brandon Coleman/OG/Texas Christian. 22 college starts at left tackle, 11 starts at left guard and 1 at right guard. I think he is better fit on the left side of the offensive line, but I think Gutekunst falls in love with his size and athletic ability, and takes him with the idea they can plug him in at right guard.

6 teams needed a QB, the Falcons didn't need a QB but took one, so the Raiders were the 1 out of 6 teams that lost out. They lost out so bad, that they just had to use that #13 pick on Brock Bowers, who was graded top 10 on every list I looked at other than CBS Sports (where he was #14). I'd be tickled pink this morning if I was a Raiders fan. I'm not even a fan of taking TE's high. But if given the choice between taking a top 10 player at #13 or trading a bunch of picks to take the #32 or #33 player at #8...I'd go with option #1 every time. Raiders one of the big winners of day one IMO. Now watch them get hit with an over-night infestation of quarterback madness and trade the rest of their draft to move up to #33 and take Spencer Rattler.

QB stupidity reaches an all-time high this year. Last weekend took a bunch of the top prospects lists and put them in a spreadsheet and made a big board out of it. For example, I took the top 150 listed at CBS Sports, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus and #150 got 1 point and #1 got 150 points. Took Daniel Jeremiah's top 50, #50 got 1 point and #1 got 50 points. Lists used were NFL.com, GBN Report, CBS Sports, Jeremiah, Ourlads, Eric Edholm and Pro Football Focus. Marvin Harrison was #1 #2 = Caleb Williams #5 = Drake Maye #6 = Jayden Daniels #20 = J.J. McCarthy #32 = Bo Nix #33 = Michael Penix Jr. (Jordan Morgan was #36) Getting rid of Cousins after the first year of his deal is a 25 million dollar cap hit and getting rid of him after the second year of his deal is a 32.5 million dollar cap savings. So Cousins is likely playing on a 2 year deal, and the last 90 million of his contract is essentially null-and-void (two 35 million base salaries + two 10 million roster bonuses). He's probably not that thrilled about it. I'm all for taking a QB and giving him a couple years to develop. But that does not include taking a guy with a very late first/very early second grade and making him a top 10 pick.

With the way it fell, my preference would have been to start making calls at #18 and try to swing a deal using #25 and #88 to move up to get Troy Fautanu. If I was unable to swing a deal, I would have tried to move back about 10 spots and pick up another third rounder. If I was stuck at #25, it would have come down to Graham Barton or Nate Wiggins and I would have gone with the very un-glamourous Graham Barton and just stuck him in at right guard and been pretty comfortable with that. Definitely would have preferred to go down. Cooper DeJean, Ennis Rakestraw and Jordan Morgan would have been my top wants after a trade down. I agree with Belichick, Morgan very, very likely would have gone to someone else in round one if the Packers hadn't picked him, so I assume I would miss out on him after a 10 spot trade down. DeJean and Rakestraw still on the board at the conclusion of round one.

Don't see it for RT as this draft seems pretty well stocked with those. But LT, definitely. This is not a good LT draft, if you don't get one early you might not get one at all. Guys that were primarily LT this last year who (very) likely get bumped to other spots in the NFL include: Graham Barton - guard or center Kingsley Suamataia - right tackle (this is debatable) Cooper Beebe - guard, maybe right tackle Dominick Puni - guard Matt Goncalves - guard, maybe right tackle Brandon Coleman - guard Nathan Thomas - guard, maybe right tackle (maybe left tackle, but majority don't seem to think so) That leaves- Joe Alt Olumuyiwa Fashanu Troy Fautanu (many think he is a NFL guard, like Suamataia, debatable) Jordan Morgan Patrick Paul Kiran Amegadjie Javon Foster Delmar Glaze Walter Rouse And then the guy who played RT who could project to LT Tyler Guyton I think that's it, please point out anyone who I may have missed. Latham, Fuaga, Mims, Fisher, Rosengarten, Christian Jones, Caeden Wallace (guard) all are college right tackles who very likely end up at right tackle in the NFL. Foster probably sneaks into round three, but he, Glaze and Rouse grade out as day three players. I'm not going to argue that a RT cannot make the transition to LT in the NFL, I'm pretty sure Trent Williams was a RT in college and he's been an excellent NFL LT for well over a decade (and then there is Jason Peters, who was a TE in college)...but it's still a transition that isn't routinely made. Some people include Kingsley and some include Fautanu, you can count both or just one or neither. It's not hard at all to see a decision maker in a NFL front office saying..,,Fautanu is a guard, Suamataia is a right tackle...I'm not trusting a Yale project guy to protect my quarterback's blind side...there are really only 4 guys in this draft who I think can be a starting NFL left tackle (Alt, Fashanu, Morgan, Paul)...and then Guyton could make #5. If Gutekunst puts LT as the #1 priority for the Packers in this draft, it wouldn't surprise me to see him move up aggressively from #25 to try and get Fashanu or Fautanu (assuming he sees Fautanu as a LT)...if not...it wouldn't surprise me to see him move up from #41 to get Morgan...if not...it wouldn't surprise me to see him move up from that late second rounder to get Paul. Paul lasted into the third round in my last mock, his stock seems to be slipping (I don't know why), but I certainly would not bet on that to happen if I was a NFL GM who needed a left tackle.

On a related note to the upcoming QB frenzy. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39998645/jets-trading-qb-zach-wilson-broncos-source-says The trade means that only one of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2021 draft remains with his original team -- Trevor Lawrence, who was picked No. 1 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The other four -- Wilson, Trey Lance (No. 3 pick), Justin Fields (No. 11) and Mac Jones (No. 15) -- have all been traded. It's not even a gamble to predict that 3 of the top 4 QBs will end up being massive disappointments. I think, throwing the QB factor out the window, that there are 3 WRs in this draft that are better prospects than any of the QBs.

Seven round mock with round one trades. I didn't proof-read it, so pleas forgive the occasional error/typo. I used this as the primary list to determine needs - https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-first-round-order-top-five-needs-for-all-32-teams-following-free-agency-frenzy - and then around round five switched to this list as it contained more than 5 need areas for each team - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-draft-order-biggest-needs-for-every-team-plus-key-free-agent-signings-departures-for-all-32-clubs/ ROUND ONE 1. Bears – Caleb Williams/QB/USC Vikings get #2 and #78 (third)…Commanders get #11, #23. #108 (fourth), #157 (fifth) and 2025 first round pick 2. Vikings – Jayden Daniels/QB/LSU 3. Patriots – Drake Maye/QB/North Carolina 4. Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr./WR/Ohio State 5. Chargers – Malik Nabers/WR/LSU 6. Giants – Rome Odunze/WR/Washington Commanders get #7…Titans get #11, #67 (third) and #100 (fourth) 7. Commanders – J.J. McCarthy/QB/Michigan 8. Falcons – Dallas Turner/EDGE/Alabama Titans get #9…Bears get #11 and #100 (fourth) 9. Titans – Joe Alt/OT/Notre Dame 10. Jets – Brock Bowers/TE/Georgia 11. Bears – Jared Verse/EDGE/Florida State 12. Broncos – Quinyon Mitchell/CB/Toledo 13. Raiders – Terrion Arnold/CB/Alabama 14. Saints – Olumuyiwa Fashanu/OT/Penn State Rams get #15…Colts get #19 and #83 15. Rams – Byron Murphy II/DL/Texas Commanders get #16…Seahawks get #36 (second), #40 (second) and #222 (seventh) 16. Commanders – Troy Fautanu/OT/Washington 17. Jaguars – J.C. Latham/OT/Alabama 18. Bengals – Taliese Fuaga/OT/Oregon State 19. Colts – Cooper DeJean/CB/Iowa 20. Steelers – Brian Thomas Jr./WR/LSU 21. Dolphins – Graham Barton/OG/Duke 22. Eagles – Nate Wiggins/CB/Clemson 23. Commanders – Chop Robinson/EDGE/Penn State 24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Guyton/OT/Oklahoma Cardinals get #25 and #126 (fourth)…Packers get #35 (second) and #71 (third) 25. Cardinals – Laiatu Latu/EDGE/UCLA 26. Buccaneers – Kool-Aid McKinstry/CB/Alabama 49ers get #27 and #126 (fourth)…Cardinals get #31 and #94 (third) 27. 49ers – Amarius Mims/OT/Georgia 28. Bills – Adonai Mitchell/WR/Texas Falcons get #29 and #164 (fifth)…Lions get #43 (second) and #79 (third) 29. Falcons – Jer’Zhan Newton/DL/Illinois Patriots get #30 and #165 (fifth)…Ravens get #34 and #103 (fourth) 30. New England Patriots – Jordan Morgan/OT/Arizona 31. Cardinals – Ennis Rakestraw Jr./CB/Missouri 32. Chiefs – Troy Franklin/WR/Oregon ROUND TWO 33. Panthers – Ladd McConkey/WR/Georgia 34. Ravens – Xavier Worthy/WR/Texas 35. Packers – Edgerrin Cooper/LB/Texas A&M 36. Seahawks – Braden Fiske/DL/Florida State 37. Chargers – Kamari Lassiter/CB/Georgia 38. Titans – Ricky Pearsall/WR/Florida 39. Panthers – Jackson Powers-Johnson/C/Oregon 40. Seahawks – Payton Wilson/LB/NC State 41. Packers – Christian Haynes/OG/UConn 42. Texans – Ja’Tavion Sanders/TE/Texas 43. Lions – Tyler Nubin/S/Minnesota 44. Raiders – Bo Nix/QB/Oregon 45. Saints – Malachi Corley/WR/Western Kentucky 46. Colts – Xavier Legette/WR/South Carolina 47. Giants – Jonathon Brooks/RB/Texas 48. Jaguars – Kris Jenkins/DT/Michigan 49. Bengals – Keon Coleman/WR/Florida State 50. Eagles – Cooper Beebe/OG/Kansas State 51. Steelers – Kingsley Suamataia/OT/BYU 52. Rams – Chris Braswell/EDGE/Alabama 53. Eagles – Jaden Hicks/S/Washington State 54. Browns – Junior Colson/LB/Michigan 55. Dolphins – Ruke Orhorhoro/DL/Clemson 56. Cowboys – Zach Frazier/C/West Virginia 57. Buccaneers – Adisa Isaac/EDGE/Penn State 58. Packers – Javon Bullard/S/Georgia 59. Texans – Darius Robinson/DE/Missouri 60. Bills – T’Vondre Sweat/DL/Texas 61. Lions – Mike Sainristil/CB/Michigan 62. Ravens – Blake Fisher/OT/Notre Dame 63. 49ers – Roman Wilson/WR/Michigan 64. Chiefs – Max Melton/CB/Rutgers ROUND THREE 65. Panthers – T.J. Tampa/CB/Iowa State 66. Cardinals – Jaylen Wright/RB/Tennessee 67. Titans – Marshawn Kneeland/EDGE/Western Michigan 68. Patriots – Ja’Lynn Polk/WR/Washington 69. Chargers – Patrick Paul/OT/Houston 70. Giants – Kris Abrams-Draine/CB/Missouri 71. Packers – Kiran Amegadjie/OT/Yale 72. Jets – Javon Baker/WR/UCF 73. Lions – Bralen Trice/EDGE/Washington 74. Falcons – Calen Bullock/S/USC 75. Bears – Devontez Walker/WR/North Carolina 76. Broncos – Michael Penix Jr./QB/Washington 77. Raiders – Jermaine Burton/WR/Alabama 78. Vikings – Austin Booker/EDGE/Kansas 79. Lions – Malik Washington/WR/Virginia 80. Bengals – Michael Hall Jr./DL/Ohio State 81. Seahawks – Cade Stover/TE/Ohio State 82. Colts – Trey Benson/RB/Florida State 83. Colts – Dadrion Taylor-Demerson/S/Texas Tech 84. Steelers – Andru Phillips/CB/Kentucky 85. Browns – Ben Sinnott/TE/Kansas State 86. Texans – Khyree Jackson/CB/Oregon 87. Cowboys – Maason Smith/DL/LSU 88. Packers – DJ James/CB/Auburn 89. Buccaneers – Sedrick Van Pran-Granger/C/Georgia 90. Cardinals – Dominick Puni/OG/Kansas 91. Packers – Jeremiah Trotter Jr./LB/Clemson 92. Buccaneers – Cole Bishop/S/Utah 93. Ravens – Jonah Elliss/EDGE/Utah 94. Cardinals – Brandon Dorius/DL/Oregon 95. Chiefs – Roger Rosengarten/OT/Washington 96. Jaguars – Renardo Green/CB/Florida State 97. Bengals – Theo Johnson/TE/Penn State 98. Steelers – Christian Mahogany/OG/Boston College 99. Rams – Javon Foster/OT/Missouri ROUND FOUR 100. Bears – DeWayne Carter/DL/Duke 101. Panthers – Mekhi Wingo/DL/LSU 102. Seahawks – Matt Goncalves/OG/Pittsburgh 103. Ravens – Kamren Kichens/S/Miami 104. Cardinals – Spencer Rattler/QB/South Carolina 105. Chargers – Blake Corum/RB/Michigan 106. Titans – Leonard Taylor/DL/Miami 107. Giants – Michael Pratt/QB/Tulane 108. Commanders – Jalen McMillan/WR/Washington 109. Falcons – Nehemiah Pritchett/CB/Auburn 110. Chargers – Zak Zinter/OG/Michigan 111. Jets – Caelen Carson/CB/Wake Forest 112. Raiders – Brandon Coleman/OG/TCU 113. Ravens – Mason McCormick/OG/South Dakota State 114. Jaguars – Mohamed Kamara/EDGE/Colorado State 115. Bengals – Myles Harden/CB/South Dakota 116. Jaguars – Johnny Wilson/WR/Florida State 117. Colts – Javon Solomon/EDGE/Troy 118. Seahawks – Gabriel Murphy/EDGE/UCLA 119. Steelers – Cedric Gray/LB/North Carolina 120. Eagles – Ainias Smith/WR/Texas A&M 121. Broncos – Christian Jones/OT/Texas 122. Bears – Delmar Glaze/OT/Maryland 123. Texans – Tommy Eichenberg/LB/Ohio State 124. 49ers – Elijah Jones/CB/Boston College 125. Buccaneers – Jaylon Ford/LB/Texas 126. 49ers – Caedan Wallace/OG/Penn State 127. Texans – Hunter Nourzad/C/Penn State 128. Bills – Jalyx Hunt/EDGE/Houston Christian University 129. Vikings – Luke McCaffery/WR/Rice 130. Ravens – Dwight McGlothern/CB/Arkansas 131. Chiefs – MarShawn Lloyd/RB/USC 132. 49ers – Brennan Jackson/EDGE/Washington State 133. Buffalo – Braelon Allen/RB/Wisconsin 134. Jets – Kitan Oladapo/S/Oregon State ROUND FIVE 135. 49ers – Trevin Wallace/LB/Kentucky 136. Broncos – Xavier Thomas/EDGE/Clemson 137. Patriots – McKinnley Jackson/DL/Texas A&M 138. Cardinals – Tyler Davis/DL/Clemson 139. Commanders – Kalen King/CB/Penn State 140. Chargers – Fabien Lovett Sr./DL/Florida State 141. Panthers – Jared Wiley/TE/TCU 142. Panthers – Cedric Johnson/EDGE/Mississippi 143. Falcons – Jacob Cowing/WR/Arizona 144. Bills – Tykee Smith/S/Georgia 145. Broncos – Justin Egoigbe/DL/Alabama 146. Titans – Marist Liufau/LB/Notre Dame 147. Broncos – Sataoa Laumea/OG/Utah 148. Raiders – Ray Davis/RB/Kentucky 149. Bengals – Tanor Bortolini/OG/Wisconsin 150. New Orleans – Josh Newton/CB/TCU 151. Colts – Trevor Keegan/OG/Michigan 152. Commanders – Beau Bride/S/Maryland 153. Jaguars – Beaux Limmer/C/Arkansas 154. Rams – Jarvis Brownlee Jr./CB/Louisville 155. Rams – Bucky Irving/RB/Oregon 156. Browns – Anthony Gould/WR/Oregon State 157. Commanders – Isaiah Adams/OG/Illinois 158. Dolphins – Erick All/TE/Iowa 159. Chiefs – Javion Cohen/OG/Miami 160. Bills – Cam Hart/CB/Notre Dame 161. Eagles – Curtis Jacobs/LB/Penn State 162. Cardinals – Tyrice Knight/LB/UTEP 163. Bills – Nathan Thomas/OT/Louisiana-Lafeyette 164. Falcons – Jordan Magee/LB/Temple 165. Patriots – Jarrian Jones/CB/Florida State 166. Giants – Jaylin Simpson/S/Auburn 167. Vikings – Marcus Harris/DT/Auburn 168. Saints – Ty’Ron Hopper/LB/Missouri 169. Packers – Myles Cole/DE/Texas Tech 170. Saints – Jordan Jefferson/DL/LSU 171. Eagles – Walter Rouse/OT/Oklahoma 172. Eagles – Jaheim Bell/TE/Florida State 173. Chiefs – Gabe Hall/DL/Baylor 174. Cowboys – Tyrone Tracy Jr./RB/Purdue 175. Saints – Will Shipley/RB/Clemson ROUND SIX 176. 49ers – Khristian Boyd/DL/Northern Iowa 177. Vikings – Layden Robinson/OG/Texas A&M 178. Steelers – Jaden Crumedy/DL/Mississippi State 179. Seahawks – Trey Taylor/S/Air Force 180. Patriots – Nathaniel Watson/LB/Mississippi State 181. Chargers – Edefan Ulofoshio/LB/Washington 182. Titans – Trente Jones/OG/Michigan 183. Giants – KT Leveston/OG/Kansas State 184. Dolphins – Garret Greenfield/OT/South Dakota State 185. Jets – Darius Muasau/LB/UCLA 186. Cardinals – Jamari Thrash/WR/Louisville 187. Falcons – Chau Smith-Wade/CB/Washington State 188. Texans – Justin Rogers/DL/Auburn 189. Texans – Brenden Rice/WR/USC 190. Saints – Omar Brown/S/Nebraska 191. Colts – Jackson Sirmon/LB/California 192. Seahawks – Frank Crum/OT/Wyoming 193. Patriots – Bub Means/WR/Pittsburgh 194. Bengals – Nelson Ceaser/EDGE/Houston 195. Steelers – Malik Mustapha/S/Wake Forest 196. Rams – Joshua Karty/K/Stanford 197. Falcons – Tanner McLachlan/TE/Arizona 198. Dolphins – Grayson Murphy/EDGE/ULCA 199. Saints – Tip Reiman/TE/Illinois 200. Bills – Nick Gargiulo/C/South Carolina 201. Lions – Tylan Grable/OT/UCF 202. Packers – Joe Milton/QB/Tennessee 203. Broncos – Sione Vaki/S/Utah 204. Bills – Aaron Casey/LB/Indiana 205. Lions – Gottlieb Ayedze/OG/Maryland 206. Browns – Logan Lee/DL/Iowa 207. Broncos – Tahj Washington/WR/USC 208. Raiders – Jonah Laulu/DL/Oklahoma 209. Rams – Daijahn Anthony/S/Mississippi 210. Eagles – Audric Estime/RB/Notre Dame 211. 49ers – Dominique Hampton/S/Washington 212. Jaguars – Isaac Guerendo/RB/Louisville 213. Rams – Isaiah Williams/WR/Illinois 214. Bengals – Tory Taylor/P/Iowa 215. 49ers – Nick Samac/C/Michigan State 216. Cowboys – Cornelius Johnson/WR/Michigan 217. Rams – Dallas Gant/LB/Toledo 218. Ravens – Keith Randolph Jr./DL/Illinois 219. Packers – Jaylen Key/S/Alabama 220. Buccaneers – Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint/WR/Georgia ROUND SEVEN 221. Chiefs – James Williams/S/Miami 222. Seahawks – Blake Watson/RB/Memphis 223. Raiders – Tatum Bethune/LB/Florida State 224. Bengals – Isaiah Davis/RB/South Dakota State 225. Chargers – Jordan Travis/QB/Florida State 226. Cardinals – AJ Barner/TE/Michigan 227. Browns – Julian Pearl/OT/Illinois 228. Ravens – Jamal Hill/LB/Oregon 229. Raiders – Travis Glover/OT/Georgia State 230. Vikings – MJ Devonshire/CB/Pittsburgh 231. Patriots – McCallan Castles/TE/Tennessee 232. Vikings – Evan Anderson/DL/Florida Atlantic 233. Cowboys – Kamal Hadden/CB/Tennessee 234. Colts – Willie Drew/CB/Virginia State 235. Seahawks – Matt Lee/C/Miami 236. Jaguars – Eric Watts/EDGE/UConn 237. Bengals – Josh Proctor/S/Ohio State 238. Texans – Josiah Ezirim/OT/Eastern Kentucky 239. Saints – Keaton Bills/OG/Utah 240. Panthers – Ethan Driskell/OT/Marshall 241. Dolphins – Ryan Flournoy/WR/Southeast Missouri State 242. Titans – Qwan’tez Stiggers/CB/No College 243. Browns – Elijah Klein/OG/UTEP 244. Cowboys – Steele Chambers/LB/Ohio State 245. Packers – Will Reichard/K/Alabama 246. Buccaneers – Dylan Laube/RB/New Hampshire 247. Texans – Evan Williams/S/Oregon 248. Bills – Dallin Holker/TE/Colorado State 249. Lions – Pheldarius Payne/DT/Virginia Tech 250. Ravens – Sam Hartman/QB/Notre Dame 251. 49ers – Brevyn Spann-Ford/TE/Minnesota 252. Titans – Jaylon Carlies/S/Missouri 253. Chargers – Lideatrick Griffin/WR/Mississippi State 254. Rams – Braiden McGregor/EDGE/Michigan 255. Packers – Rasheen Ali/RB/Marshall 256. Jets – Jeremy Flax/OT/Kentucky 257. Jets – George Holani/RB/Boise State

My preferred approach would be as follows. Primary need areas, in order: LB, S, LT, OG, CB No LB or S worth taking in round one (could argue that none are worth a top 40 pick), Left tackle is the #1 round one target. Three LT worth #25, all pretty much guaranteed to be off the board at #25. Would look to trade up in round one to get a LT. Cannot deal either second round pick to save for LB, S or other value pick. As such, probably only have the ammo to move up 6 or 7 spots (#25 + 3rd +5th). Would take Fautanu or Fashanu (less likely he slips that far). If those tackles are unobtainable, I just hope a pray a dropper that I like makes it to #25 (CB-Nate Wiggins). If not, then I'm looking to move down, and down far enough (11-14 spots) to pick up an extra 3rd rounder in the swap. If I can accomplish that, then I have 3 seconds and 3 thirds, and the first of those picks can be used strictly as a "best player on the board" pick and not worry about need at all. Round two, first pick...likely just go with S-Tyler Nubin. I have concerns because (1) I watch the Badger/Gopher game every year and just didn't see him as a standout (but certainly not a bad player either) and (2) sounds like his workout was terrible (was coming off knee surgery). But there are enough positive reviews from sources I trust (Ourlads would be one) that I'd be comfortable with the Packers picking him here. He should be on the board. Round two, second pick...likely just go with LB-Jeremiah Trotter. He's small, but I've come to like him a lot. Sounds like the top guy in terms of linebacker instincts, reading and reacting, and being where he is supposed to be. Linebacker and safety, I'd always go with average athletes who know how to play rather than the super athletes that run themselves out of more plays than they actually make. On the board, I think he is projecting more as a mid-third rounder, but I'd be content to take him here. Rounds three and four...currently have 3 picks, top priority would be two offensive linemen, one that projects at LT (assuming I could not get a round one tacke) and one that projects as a guard. It's very possible that finding a LT worth the pick in these rounds could be tough. So with the third pick would look to either get a CB (assuming I did not take Nate Wiggins in round one) or another LB. Rounds five through seven...fill whatever LT/OG/CB/LB hole is left that I couldn't fill earlier. Assuming I've already drafted 1 LB and a S earlier. Would like to grab a developmental QB and another DB (best player on the board, CB or S does not matter). So adding up all of the above, would like to come out of this draft with a QB/2 OL/2 LB/3 DB...which leaves me 3 picks that I can completely ignore the board with and just go "best player available." If I deal down early, I'd probably look to move up later. Would be completely happy with 10 drafted players, so starting with 11 picks, I'm not adverse to moving up, although I don't think I'd do it with either of the round two picks.

I wouldn't mind a DeJean pick at all. I think he's a guy who could be above average/good in just about any system, and would be a potential superstar in the defense where he would primarily be playing zone. He'd be great in the old-school Tony Dungy defense. He'd be great playing RCB in the defense that Ed Donatell implemented when he was the Packer's defensive coordinator. I don't think he's strictly a system player, he is instinctive and athletic enough to still be good in a system that isn't the perfect fit. Also, the moment he steps onto an NFL field he will likely be a better tackler than 90% of NFL cornerbacks and probably well over 50% of NFL safeties. After really looking over the landscape the last couple of weeks, I think Troy Fautanu at #25 is a pretty unrealistic scenario. Maybe he'd be available at #20 for a trade up but I'd put chances of that at less than 50/50. Graham Barton was a left tackle, but nobody is projecting him there in the NFL. Take him out of the left tackle equation and it's only Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu as solid first rounders that were regular left tackles in college. Chances are pretty good that some team will take Guyton and move him to left tackle thinking he is the next Jason Peters. Morgan is the next LT on the board, I think he will go late round 1, but IMO #25 is too much of a reach. Fuaga, Latham, Mims...all right tackles who are very likely RT in the NFL. The potential dropper that seemed pretty safe as a top 20 pick a few weeks ago that I now think is a possibility at #25 is CB-Nate Wiggins. I have significant concerns about his size because he is a really thin, narrow-framed guy and one has to wonder how he'll hold up...but his build is very much like Al Harris and he didn't have any problem staying on the field for the Packers. I've really soured on #25 because I see LB, S and LT at the three big needs and I don't think there will be an available player from any of those spots being worth the #25 pick. If Wiggins makes it there, I think he'd be the guy I'd pick. At #41, I have to admit that I've really soured on Edgerrin Cooper. A month ago I would have put him as the top linebacker in the draft. But I've just read too many reports on him that say super athlete, but poor instincts, can't read his keys, alway in the wrong gap, etc, I don't think I could take him at #41. I lean towards Trotter and Colson being the best linebackers in this draft. And with Trotter, he's probably there at #58 and that would be an easy pick for me to make. I don't see a scenario where Graham Barton makes it to #41. Going through the lists over the last week, I think he's drafted ahead of Jackson Powers-Johnson and is probably about a 95% chance of being a first round pick. I don't think the Packers should take a RB in the first two rounds (not just based on the need factor, I don't see value there either). But if I was the GM I would have moved on from Dillon because there are a lot of attractive candidates in rounds 3-5...get younger at the position...and frankly everything I heard from Packer fans through the first half of last season was how mediocre Dillon looked. Seemed like the right time to move on and get a younger player in that spot. Patrick Paul and Javon Foster are two non-round one left tackles who are pretty reasonable projections in late round two and in round four. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers take either of those players. Foster probably goes a little higher, but going at the end of round four would not be a shock. One think I can't see is that Paul, Foster, Lee and Kingston makes four drafted offensive lineman, very much doubt the Packers do that.

If that's what the Packers are thinking, then that is something that does not leave the building this close to the draft. If anything, I'd interpret this information as good old-fashioned NFL draft deceptiveness, and in reality the Packers have no round one interest in taking a right tackle and perhaps don't have round one interest in taking either a right or left tackle. It could be true, Myers gets pretty much poor reviews from everyone, but the timing of the statement makes me really skeptical.

No. I would only make a move like this if the team had one glaring need and getting one guy to fix that spot could be the last piece to put the team over the top. I don't think I'd put left tackle as the team's biggest need. I'd go linebacker as need #1, safety as need #2 and left tackle as need #3. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers make a trade up to get a left tackle in this draft. From what I've read, it seems pretty clear that there is not a linebacker or safety worth #25. Maybe one could make the argument that if the Packers traded down to #32, that they could justify taking a linebacker or safety as a first rounder but in that lower slot. I'm skeptical that there is a linebacker or safety worth taking in the top 40. So if Gutekunst sticks to the needs list, left tackle is a pretty decent bet. I had them taking Jordan Morgan in my last mock. Personally, I don't think Morgan is worth #25 either. But one thing worth noting is that this draft is filled with right tackle prospects, but there is a lack of left tackles. If the Packers do not grab a left tackle early, it is going to be tough to find one later. I personally would be in favor of trading #25, a third rounder and another later round pick (could be a 2025 pick) to move up six or seven spots and take Troy Fautanu, which seems like pretty solid value at that spot and still leaves the Packers 3 day two picks to address linebacker, safety and fill another spot. That is about as aggressive as I would get with the first round pick.

I'm surprised that Boras quotes are not already pasted all over every sports website. Assuming Holliday does not get sent back down, the Orioles likely did him a huge favor by calling him up this early. He will be Super Two eligible. If he lives up to the hype, this will cost the Orioles tens of millions of dollars down the road. At 7-4, they certainly have been competitive enough (and had a bright outlook heading into the season as a 101 win team last year), that they could have left Holliday in the minors for a couple more months without anybody really raising an eyebrow.

That would be correct. I would consider myself a MLB observer that posts on a Brewers forum because I am a former Brewer fans that still resides in the state of Wisconsin.

Since I no longer go to games, I had no idea that ticket prices have jumped as much as they have. Just want to point out that Attanasio cut the opening day payroll by 13.1+ million from 2022 to 2023, and then cut it another 14.4+ million dollars from 2023 to 2024. Over a 20% cut in the last two years. The 2024 opening day payroll is $87,351 more than it was in 2015 (yes, less than 100k). All this can be verified over at Cot's Baseball Contracts, feel free to go over there and double-check the math and figures. Add in the free 500 million Attanasio got from the state, and it sure seems the fans are getting the short end of the stick. Stuff like this is exactly why I stopped going to games, have no desire to visit AmFam Field anytime soon or buy any Brewer's merchandise.

John Fisher is an embarrassment to MLB.

I tend to think the opposite way from sveumrules, and prefer Baseball Reference when it comes to looking at pitcher WAR. Primarily because I think fWAR extremely over-values pitchers that are performing on a mediocre level. Best example I can quickly give for Brewer fans is Matt Garza during his last year in Milwaukee. He was awful, everyone who watched the Brewers that season would tell you he was awful and the message boards were just filled with comments that the Brewers should just release him and put a young guy (or even organizational filler) out there because Garza wasn't passing anyone's "eye-test." He finished the year with a 4.94 ERA and a K/BB ratio well below 2. FIP = 4.91, xFIP = 5.12, SIERA = 5.25. Only made 22 starts (24 appearance in all) and Fangraphs came up with a 0.9 WAR (which pro-rates to 1.3 WAR if he had started the full season...32 starts). Baseball Reference has him at -0.2. Anybody who watched the Brewers that season would say the -0.2 figure seemed like the more accurate figure. But in the end, it doesn't take that much time to look at both sites and see both numbers. Whenever I try to figure out trade value or something along those lines, I always look at both sides, take the average and call it the bWAR/fWAR value.

I know it's old news but I finally got around to looking at yesterday's article in the Journal-Sentinel. Sounds like many of the people who had previously entered their plate numbers had no issue with the app once they got into the parking lot. Interstate can call it a configuration issue, but it sure looks like their system was not prepared for thousands of plate number entries to occur within an hour. Which brings me back to my the concept I brought up earlier, customers should be able to enter the plate numbers right when they buy the passes, and if they don't have to change vehicles on game day, should be able to drive right into the lot and not have to mess with anything because they paid and the plate number is in the system. Easy.

I whined and complained about that trade up to get Sander. But I will say, Sander may have had the greatest game by a punter I ever saw. It was an Ohio State-Purdue game, and Sander must have had 5 punts in that game that put Purdue within their own 5 yard line. That had to have happened over 20 years ago and I still remember it. But Sander did not have a big leg. I would had no problem with the Packers taking him in the fifth based on his directional ability, and if that would have happened, I would defend the pick as reasonable at the time it was made (even though Sander was a bust). But to trade up into round three was near insanity. My favorite Sherman draft story was when he took Javon Walker, and in the press conference at the end of the day he literally said, "he has trouble catching the ball, but he has 10 1/2 inch hands so we'll teach him to catch the ball." I am probably not remembering the exact hand measurement, but the rest of that quote is really close to what he said. Back to specialists...even the best get burned by that every now and then. Even though Wolf didn't do a very good job in round one IMO, he was absolutely remarkable in the later rounds and overall was a true master when handling the draft. But he took Penn State kicker Brett Conway in the third round, and that guy was awful. If memory serves me correctly, he missed three field goals in the first pre-season game and everyone in the state knew at that moment that he would amount to nothing.

I think I would have had all the permits in hand before starting to build something like that. Of course, I didn't make 80 million dollars during my (ongoing) career, so I don't exactly have 10s of thousands of dollars to throw away in case something goes sideways.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2024/04/01/how-to-use-the-brewers-new-qr-code-parking-payment-system-at-american-family-field/73145186007/ So the Brewers and Interstate Parking Company teamed up and built this system from the ground up. So why would the following not work- I log in on March 26 and buy tickets and a preferred parking pass for the April 2 game. At that time, I enter my plate number to tie it to the pass and submit it. So they have the plate number in their system for April 2. I'm done, no messing with anything once I get to the park. On the morning of April 2, the kid runs off with the vehicle I was going to use so I have to take the other vehicle. I log in, look at my purchases, find my preferred parking pass for the April 2 game, edit the license plate number and submit. Old plate number is immediately removed from the system for April 2, new plate number is the vehicle that is now legal in the lot for the day, a system that prevents two vehicles from using the same parking pass. Place signs around the parking lots telling people they have to have the correct plate number entered. So if the above happens and you forget to enter the right plate number before you get to the park, then at that point you can mess with your phone, or go to a kiosk, or find a parking dude to help you.

So I turned 55 a few months ago. While I don't qualify for social security for many years, at 55 I am eligible to go to my local senior center and get a bunch of senior discounts. So as somewhat of a senior, I can say that us old folks do not mind technology. But what we don't like is, when we are giving someone our money, that getting the return service or goods is NOT made as easy as possible. After all, we are the paying customer. Old folks remember when you would drive up, open the window, hand someone three bucks and you were taken care of and on your merry way. Now you have to fiddle around with your phone, take pictures of lamp posts, fumble around with entering license plate numbers and credit card numbers, and in the end you give them $15 as part of a process that is a complete pain in the ass compared to what it used to be. And this all assumes you have fully functional equipment. For example, the camera of my last phone went all to crap and I don't use the camera, so I wasn't about to go out and spend several hundred dollars on a different phone just to get a working camera. I still used that phone for another 2 years because it did everything that I needed it to do. So if I still had that phone today, add in flagging down a parking guy along with the rest of it. I have no intention of ever stepping foot inside AmFam Field ever again, so personally I couldn't give a crap. But I certainly understand why people would not like this system.

Trade crazy mock draft (for everyone other than Green Bay) Admittedly I pay little attention to the NFL these days, so I used the following link for team needs as it was the most up-to-date list I could find. Note that I have a decent grip on what I think the Packers need, so I really didn't follow the list of needs for Green Bay, although it looks like I did. 2024 NFL Draft order, biggest needs for every team, plus key free agent signings, departures for all 32 clubs - CBSSports.com I did go through every pick through 7 rounds, but was too lazy to type out every pick from rounds 4-7. Only included picks for the NFC North teams and players that at one time or another played for the Badgers. Please forgive the occasional typo as I am just too lazy to go back and proof-read it. At least I was aware enough at the end to go back and replace Redskins with Commanders as I made that mistake more than once. Round One 1. Bears – Caleb Williams/QB/USC Vikings get #2 and #67 (third)…Commanders get #11, #23, #108 (fourth), #167 (fifth) and 2025 first round pick 2. Vikings – Jayden Daniels/QB/LSU Raiders get #3…Patriots get #13, #44 (second) and 2025 first round pick 3. Raiders – Drake Maye/QB/North Carolina 4. Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr./WR/Ohio State Titans get #5…Chargers get #7, #106 (fourth) and 2025 fourth round pick 5. Titans – Joe Alt/OT/Notre Dame Commanders get #6 and #107 (fourth)…Giants get #11 and #40 (second) 6. Commanders – J.J. McCarthy/QB/Michigan 7. Chargers – Rome Odunze/WR/Washington 8. Falcons – Jared Verse/EDGE/Florida State Jaguars get #9…Bears get #17 and #48 (second) 9. Jaguars – Malik Nabers/WR/LSU Colts get #10…Jets get #15, #82 (third) and 2025 fourth round pick 10. Colts – Quinyon Mitchell/CB/Toledo Eagles get #11…Giants get #22, #50 (second) and #120 (fourth) 11. Eagles – Terrion Arnold/CB/Alabama Rams get #12 and #145 (fifth)…Broncos get #19 and #52 (second) 12. Rams – Dallas Turner/EDGE/Alabama 13. Patriots – Olumuyiwa Fashanu/OT/Penn State Bengals get #14…Saints get #18 and #80 (third) 14. Bengals – Brock Bowers/TE/Georgia 15. Jets – Brian Thomas Jr/WR/LSU Cowboys get #16 and #102 (fourth)…Seahawks get #24, #56 (second) and #216 (sixth) 16. Cowboys – J.C. Latham/OT/Alabama Cardinals get #17…Bears get #27, #66 (third) and #186 (sixth) 17. Cardinals – Chop Robinson/EDGE/Penn State 18. Saints – Troy Fautanu/OT/Washington Commanders get #19…Broncos get #23 and #100 (fourth) 19. Commanders – Tyler Guyton/OT/Oklahoma Bills get #20, #98 (third)…Steelers get #28, #60 (second) and #189 (sixth) 20. Bills – Nate Wiggins/CB/Clemson Commanders get #21…Dolphins get #36 (second), #78 (third) and #107 (fourth) 21. Commanders – Laiatu Latu/EDGE/UCLA 22. Giants – Graham Barton/IOL/Duke Chiefs get #23…Broncos get #32, #95 (third) and 2025 fourth round pick 23. Chiefs – Taliese Fuaga/OT/Oregon State Rams get #24…Seahawks get #83 (third), 2025 first round pick and 2026 second round pick 24. Rams – Byron Murphy II/DT/Texas 25. Packers – Jordan Morgan/OT/Arizona 26. Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson/IOL/Oregon 27. Bears – Darius Robinson/EDGE/Missouri 28. Steelers – Adonai Mitchell/WR/Texas Patriots get #29…Detroit gets #34 (second) and #103 (fourth) 29. Patriots – Bo Nix/QB/Oregon 30. Ravens – Amarius Mims/OT/Georgia 31. 49ers – Jer’Zhan Newton/DT/Illinois 32. Broncos – Kool-Aid McKinstry/CB/Alabama Round Two Giants get #33 and #240 (seventh)…Panthers get #40, #120 (fourth) and #166 (fifth) 33. Giants – Jonathan Brooks/RB/Texas 34. Lions – Cooper DeJean/CB/Iowa 35. Cardinals – Ennis Rakestraw Jr./CB/Missouri Falcons get #36…Dolphins get #43 and #109 (fourth) 36. Falcons – Kamari Lassiter/CB/Georgia 37. Chargers – T’Vondre Sweat/DL/Texas 38. Titans – Edgerrin Cooper/LB/Texas A&M 39. Panthers – Tony Franklin/WR/Oregon 40. Panthers – Ja’Tavion Sanders/TE/Texas 41. Packers – Payton Wilson/LB/NC State 42. Texans – Junior Colson/LB/Michigan 43. Dolphins – Cooper Beebe/IOL/Kansas State 44. Patriots – Ladd McConkey/WR/Georgia 45. Saints – Braden Fiske/DL/Florida State 46. Colts – Tyler Nubin/S/Minnesota 47. Giants – Roman Wilson/WR/Michigan 48. Bears – Kris Jenkins/DT/Michigan Lions get #49 and #237 (seventh), Bengals get #61, #103 (fourth) and #164 (fifth) 49. Lions – Xavier Worthy/WR/Texas 50. Giants – Jeremiah Trotter Jr./LB/Clemson 51. Steelers – Christian Haynes/IOL/Connecticut 52. Broncos – Javon Bullard/S/Georgia 49ers get #53 and #161 (fifth)…Eagles get #63 and #94 (third) 53. 49ers – Blake Fisher/OT/Notre Dame 54. Browns – Patrick Paul/OT/Houston 55. Dolphins – Ricky Pearsall/WR/Florida 56. Seahawks – Austin Booker/EDGE/Kansas 57. Buccaneers – Chris Braswell/EDGE/Alabama 58. Packers – Dadrion Taylor-Demerson/S/Texas Tech 59. Texans – Cade Stover/TE/Ohio State 60. Steelers – Kiran Amegadjie/OT/Yale 61. Bengals - Ruke Orhorhoro/DT/Clemson 62. Ravens -Max Melton/CB/Rutgers 63. Eagles – Cole Bishop/S/Utah 64. Chiefs – Keon Coleman/WR/Florida State Round Three 65. Panthers – Kris Abrams-Draine/CB/Missouri 66. Bears – Christian Mahogany/IOL/Boston College 67. Vikings – Xavier Legette/WR/South Carolina 68. Patriots – T.J. Tampa/CB/Iowa State 69. Chargers – Kingsley Suamataia/OT/Brigham Young 70. Giants – D.J. James/CB/Auburn 71. Cardinals – Trey Benson/RB/Florida State 72. Jets – Jaylen Wright/RB/Tennessee 73. Lions – Dominick Puni/IOL/Kansas 74. Falcons – Michael Hall Jr./DL/Ohio State 75. Bears – Zach Frazier/IOL/West Virginia 76. Broncos – DeWayne Carter/DL/Duke 77. Raiders – Zak Zinter/IOL/Michigan 78. Dolphins – Mekhi Wingo/DL/LSU 79. Falcons – Calen Bullock/S/USC 80. Saints – Malachi Corley/WR/Western Kentucky 81. Seahawks – Kamren Kinchens/S/Miami 82. Jets – Theo Johnson/TE/Penn State 83. Seahawks – Matt Goncalves/OT/Pittsburgh 84. Steelers – Renardo Green/CB/Florida State 85. Browns – Jermaine Burton/WR/Alabama 86. Texans – Mike Sainristil/CB/Michigan 87. Cowboys – Sedrick Van Pran-Granger/IOL/Georgia 88. Packers – Caedan Wallace/OT/Penn State (to play OG) 89. Buccaneers – Cam Hart/CB/Notre Dame 90. Cardinals – Sataoa Laumea/IOL/Utah 91. Packers – Andru Phillips/CB/Kentucky 92. Buccaneers – Cedric Gray/LB/North Carolina 93. Ravens – Maason Smith/DT/LSU 94. Eagles – Javon Foster/OT/Missouri 95. Broncos – Devontez Walker/WR/North Carolina 96. Jaguars – Adisa Isaac/EDGE/Penn State 97. Bengals – Brandon Dorius/EDGE/Oregon 98. Bills – Hunter Nourzad/IOL/Penn State 99. Rams – MarShawn Lloyd/RB/USC Round Four 100. Broncos – Michael Penix Jr./QB/Washington 122. Bears – Curtis Jacobs/LB/Penn State 126. Packers – Marcus Harris/DL/Auburn 129. Vikings – Jordan Jefferson/DL/LSU Round Five 141. Panthers – Braelon Allen/RB/Wisconsin 157. Vikings – Gottlieb Ayedze/OT/Maryland (to play OG) 169. Packers -Trevin Wallace/LB/Kentucky Round Six 177. Vikings – Xavier Thomas/EDGE/Clemson 186. Bears – Tayvion Robinson/WR/Kentucky 201. Lions – Nelson Ceaser/EDGE/Houston 202. Packers – Jordan Travis/QB/Florida State 205. Lions – Zion Logue/DL/Georgia 206. Browns – Isaac Guerendo/RB/Louisville 219. Packers – Patrick McMorris/S/California Round Seven 227. Titans – Tanor Bortolini/IOL/Wisconsin (to play OG) 230. Vikings – Ro Torrence/CB/Arizona State 232. Vikings – Logan Lee/DL/Iowa 237. Lions – Millard Bradford/S/TCU 245. Packers – Eric Watts/EDGE/UConn 249. Lions – Jaheim Bell/TE/Florida State 255. Packers – Bub Means/WR/Pittsburgh

I agree with you there. You would think the Packers success over the last few DECADES would show NFL GMs that good things come to those who wait. Favre drafted 33rd by the Falcons and traded to Green Bay for #17. Aaron Rodgers #24. Love #26. Well maybe Love will end up not being so good, but year one has to make people pretty optimistic. Yeah, all those other teams need to go all in and get a top 5 pick to get a franchise QB. Just a couple days ago I had posted the following on a different message board. It actually started with all the media and other people ripping on Russell Wilson. I couldn't help but notice that Wilson had a 26/8 TD/INT ratio last year...and really how bad can a QB be with a ratio like that? So I took an hour or so and cranked some numbers and one thing led to another. LET ME JUST SAY THAT I DON'T CONSIDER THE QB RANKING TO BE ANYTHING NEAR DEFINITIVE, JUST THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING WHEN THROWING IN A COUPLE VARIABLES THAT GENERALLY DO NOT GET THROWN IN. In particular, I know Russell Wilson is a fumbler and will take sacks and those were the primary reason I looked up and include those as statistics. I complete agree that they should not be weighted as heavily as other categories, but nonetheless here it is. I'm guessing most people would look at the list, and roughly speaking, would say it's not so bad. Post One- 32 QBs with the highest amount of pass attempts in 2023. Took these six categories- QB rating Completion Percentage Yards per Attempt TD/INT ratio Sacks Taken per Attempt Fumbles per Attempt For each category, 1st place ranking earned 32 points, 32nd place ranking earned 1 point. Added all points for each category. Final rankings: 1. Dak Prescott 2. Brock Purdy 3. Jared Goff 4. Kirk Cousins 5. Tua Tagovailoa 6. Derek Carr 7. Patrick Mahomes 8. Matthew Stafford 9. Lamar Jackson 10. Jake Browning 11. Josh Allen 12. Jordan Love 13. CJ Stroud 14. Justin Herbert 15. Geno Smith 16. Joe Burrow 17. Baker Mayfield 18. Russell Wilson 19. Trevor Lawrence 20. Jalen Hurts 21. Kyler Murray 22. Aidan O'Connell 23. Mac Jones 24. Gardner Minshew 25. Kenny Pickett 26. Sam Howell 27. Desmond Ridder 28. Will Levis 29. Justin Fields 30. Joshua Dobbs 31. Bryce Young 32. Zach Wilson Post Two- If you want a franchise quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him. Draft position: Top 1/3rd from previous list 1. Dak Prescott = 135 2. Brock Purdy = 252 3. Jared Goff = 1 4. Kirk Cousins = 102 5. Tua Tagovailoa = 5 6. Derek Carr = 36 7. Patrick Mahomes = 10 8. Matthew Stafford = 1 9. Lamar Jackson = 32 10. Jake Browning = undrafted (we'll count 257 for the math) 11. Josh Allen = 7 Middle 1/3rd 12. Jordan Love = 26 13. CJ Stroud = 2 14. Justin Herbert = 6 15. Geno Smith = 39 16. Joe Burrow = 1 17. Baker Mayfield = 1 18. Russell Wilson = 75 19. Trevor Lawrence = 1 20. Jalen Hurts = 53 21. Kyler Murray = 1 Bottom 1/3rd 22. Aidan O'Connell = 135 23. Mac Jones = 15 24. Gardner Minshew = 178 25. Kenny Pickett = 20 26. Sam Howell = 144 27. Desmond Ridder = 74 28. Will Levis = 33 29. Justin Fields = 11 30. Joshua Dobbs = 135 31. Bryce Young = 1 32. Zach Wilson = 2 Average draft position of top 1/3rd = 76 3 top 5 picks 5 not taken in round 1 Average draft position of middle 1/3rd = 21 5 top 5 picks (4 #1 overall picks) 3 not taken in round 1 Average draft position of bottom 1/3rd = 68 2 top 5 picks 6 not taken in round 1 Amendment - If you want an average NFL starting quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him. Also note that this list does not include, all drafted in the last 10 years- Blake Bortles = #3 overall pick Jameis Winston = #1 overall pick Marcus Mariota = #2 overall pick Carson Wentz = #2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky = #2 overall pick Sam Darnold = #3 overall pick

I just don't see an overpay for McCarthy at #5. ESPN has him 18 overall, CBS Sports has him 19 overall, Pro Football Focus has him at 28 overall, Jeremiah at NFL.com has him at 21 overall. McCarthy will be over-drafted, I woudn't be shocked to see the Vikings take him at #5, but I don't think there is a dramatic overpay for them to get up there to take him. I think if the Vikings were content to deal #11 and #23 to take McCarthy, the deal would have already happened as that would be one sweet deal for the Chargers and they are probably a team that would be looking to trade down. Only thing that would make me think otherwise is that, since they traded Allen, that they may be dead set on getting one of the big 3 receivers in this draft and 11 likely takes them out of position to do that. But still having all their picks, an extra 4th rounder, and all their 2025 picks, they easily have enough ammo to go from #5 to #11 on a sweet deal and then jump back up to get a wide receiver. Possible the 3rd of the group makes it to #9 and I would have to believe the Bears are looking to move down with that pick since they currently only have 4 picks. My best guess is that the Vikings get into the top 3 and take one of those guys, McCarthy ends up going somewhere in the #7 - #9 range and a team like the Broncos or Raiders trades up to get him.