I don't think 9 out of 10 prospects considered top 1-2 in the game at any given moment end up failing. I guess I don't understand what a "top 1-2 in the game" means. I went and looked back. Out of the top 10 prospects for the last 5 years, more than not did pan out, but once you expand it to the top 20 prospects and especially top 50 prospects, more than not did not pan out. Obviously if the Brewers land a top 10 prospect for Greinke, that's awesome, but that may also be a feat.