If I was a big-market GM I'd be all over Harper. Mind you that means GM of a team that could withstand multiple years above the luxury tax, and that would still have flexibility to make other moves. Which pretty much limits it to Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers I guess. Now this isn't a logic I extend to free agents in general, but Harper (And Machado, if he wasn't such an *******) is a bit unique in that he's hitting free agency at such a young age. Even with a 10 year contract, you're only expecting the last couple of years to be bad. But even that isn't really the argument here; value-wise it still won't be a very good contract even in a somewhat optimistic scenario, and it carries a ton of risk. The reason it still makes sense is because of how hard it is to acquire top talent in this game, due to the draft and the long developmental cycle, the 6 (7 really) years of team control, the prospect premium for trades etc. You simply don't get the chance to sign a player this good who's only 26 very often. It's a rather unique opportunity to add a player this good for his prime years. Even a fairly pessimistic aging curve would suggest you're getting 5-6 highly productive years. When you're already a good team, it's hard to add quality beyond that. Paying a large premium, if you can afford it, for an extra "guaranteed" (In the sense that anything ever is) win or two is one way to do it. I think Harper will end up either re-signing in Washington or with the Phillies. Philies have a low payroll, and yet are willing to run one of the highest in the game. There's also no other team for whom Harper is a bigger upgrade. The other teams in contention already have good outfields. Outfields that would be better with Harper, but not to the extent that the Philliies would improve with him. They might even sign both him and Machado, tho that's too much to invest into two players really. My issue with Harper is that he just put up a 1.3 WAR season in his contract year. Ugly. I'm not betting 10+ years and $300+ million on that. Other than his 2015 season, Harper has been very overrated. My other concern with Harper is the neck problems he's had. That kind of thing doesn't go away but instead gets worse. I wouldn't be surprised if he went the Prince Fielder route.